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Auto Evolution in the 21st CenturyKen Welles, May 19, 2010
http://www.bornrich.org/entry/worlds-fastest-battery-powered-car-speeds-at-122kmh/
http://www.whatiamupto.com/gasification/woodgastruck.html
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/
12 year old CRV – 25 MPG
Full Disclosure – What I Drive10 year old F150 – 15 MPG
10 year old F150With 5th wheel – 10 MPG
20 year old MF-50 – 50 yd3/G
Auto Evolution in the 21st Century
CAUSED BY
•Fuel Prices Gasoline, alternate fuels
•GovernmentMPG Standards, Tax Credits
•EconomyBoom-SUV, Bust-Used Cars
•Governmentnot predictable
•Economynot predictable
•Gasoline Prices Long Term Increase
Fuel Prices will be the Major Influence
•Peak OilFuture gasoline output will decline
•Competition For FuelChina, India
•“Global Warming”CO2 taxes
SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust
LIQUIDDiesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel
GASHydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane
ELECTRICBatteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, NiMH, Lithium
NuclearFission, Fusion, Heat Engine
MixtureHybrid, Flex Fuel
What Will Future Fuel Be?
SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust
LIQUIDDiesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel
GASHydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane
ELECTRICBatteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, MiMH, Lithium
NuclearFission, Fusion, Heat Engine
MixtureHybrid, Flex Fuel
What Will Future Fuel Be?
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle (Addendum)Rapid TransitFlying CarsTeleportation
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel •Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
Wired magazine “Laugh at High Gas Prices With a 235-MPG VW”
What can you do with a “normal” car
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/
The car has anti-lock brakes, stability control and airbags. $30-40k.
What is the cheap solution?
Kia Rio $11,495 31 mpg
http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/cheap-fuel-efficient-cars-471207#ixzz0hKwVPNVb
Smart ForTwo $11,990 36 mpg
Toyota Yaris $12,355 32 mpg. Hyundai Accent $13,645 31 mpg
Toyota Prius $22,800 50 mpg.
Compare to $12,800 32 mpg car.
$4.00 gasoline, About 225,000 miles to the break even point$6.00 gasoline, About 150,000 miles to the break even point$8.00 gasoline, About 110,000 miles to the break even point
Toyota Prius $22,800 50 mpg.
How do we compare costs of Gasoline Cars vs. Other Fuels?
GGE Gallon of Gasoline Equivalent
1 gallon gasoline = 115,000 BTU = 33 kWh (6.1 lbs)1 gge0.88 gallon diesel (6.0 lbs) 1 gge1.50 gallon ethanol (9.9 lbs) 1 gge127 cubic feet (STP) natural gas (5.7 lbs, 950 gal) 1 gge9 kWh available electricity (130 lbs, 8 gal) * 1 gge178 cubic feet (STP) Hydrogen (1 lb, 1330 gal) ** 1 gge
GGE – Gallon of Gasoline EquivalenceWhen used in a car
* Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg petrol car 1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh
** with 60% eff. Fuel cell, (357 cubic feet for internal combustion)
13.2 gallons @ 30 mpg ~ 400 miles range
13.2 gallons gasoline~ 100 lbs
20 gallons ethanol~ 150 lbs
55 gallons compressed NG~ 250 lbs (mostly tank weight) http://www.ewsews.com/cngprices.html
105 gallons Lithium Batteries~ 2,000 lbs
250 gallons Prius Batteries~ 14,000 lbs
What is a gallon of gasoline worth to me?
Going for a Sunday drive to nowhere $2.00 Running Errands at random $3.00 Driving to work $4.00 Mowing my lawn $10.00 Using my chain saw and lumber mill $20.00 Running my generator in power outage $25-$50 (Summer-Winter)
We will NEVER run out of gasoline!!!
(We WILL run out of cheap gasoline)
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel•Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
EPA standards mandate a series of Tiers for diesel emissions
We are now in Tier 3, Tier 4 is coming
To meet these standards, exhaust systems are VERY expensive
You have an extra tank of urea solution for injection into exhaust
Worth it for big trucks
Costs too much for cars
Gasoline is more cost effective in reducing petroleum use
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/dieseldilemma_exsum.pdf
Diesel: Good for trucks. Bad for cars
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel•Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
Ethanol-Gasoline Mixtures
Corn Ethanol – Bad IdeaInefficient, and competing for foodOnly useful now because of subsidies, mandates
Cellulosic Ethanol/Methanol – Poor IdeaMade from plant waste, switch grass, corn stoverCompetes for arable landOK for micro-business, self-sustenance
LIQUID SYN-FUELEnergy source Coal Natural Gas Bio-waste Engineered Algae Energy crops
If done cheaply, could displace all NG cars
Process Fischer-Tropsch Transesterification Pyrolysis Fermentation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel•Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
Honda Civic Model GX (Natural Gas) DX (Gasoline) Natural Gas Car is:Base Price $25,190 $17,765 $7,425 (42%) more Engine Type In-Line 4-CylinderEngine Block/Cylinder Head Aluminum-AlloyDisplacement (cc) 1799Horsepower @ rpm (SAE net) 113 @ 6300 140 @ ? 81% HorsepowerTorque (lb-ft @ rpm) 109 @ 4300 128 @ ? 85% TorqueBore and Stroke (mm) 81 x 87.3Compression Ratio 12.5:1 10.5:1CARB Emissions Rating AT-PZEV [1] ULEV-2 Much Lower Emissions5-Speed Auto Transmission Standard AvailableFront Disc/Rear Drum (in.) 11.1 / 8.7 10.3 / 7.9 Cargo Volume (cu. ft.) 6.0 12.0 50% trunk spaceCurb Weight (lbs) 2910 2692 218 lbs (8%) heavierWeight Distribution (%, f/r) 59 / 41 61 / 39 ~70 lbs engine, ~150 lbs tank5-Spd Auto (City/Hway/Comb) 24 / 36 / 28 (GGE*) 25 / 36 / 29 About the same mileageFuel (gal.) 8.03 GGE @ 3600psi 13.2 Combined Range 90% of tank 202 miles 345 miles 59% range (143 miles less)Required Fuel CNG Regular Unleaded
NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic
Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx
NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic
Going from a Gasoline car to a NG car you have:
40% higher price40% less range per fill-up50% less trunk room20% less acceleration< $2.00 / gallon gasoline equivalent
200,000 miles payback at $3/gal gasoline100,000 miles payback at $4/gal gasoline
Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx
Clean Energy - NYS DOT23008 Chrisler Avenue ExitRotterdam, NY 12303Phone: 781-685-4857Fuel: Compressed Natural GasAccess: Public - card key at all times Office of General Services - NYSMcCarty Avenue and Route 9 W Southern BoulevardAlbany, NY 12209Phone: 518-473-6594 8Fuel: Compressed Natural GasAccess: Public - card key at all times
Can I pump Natural Gas Locally?Yes! Albany & Schenectady
The pump is a (minor) engineering problem
Phill used 10¢ electricity / GGE
Phill went bankrupt
Phill ~$1,000 / year to maintain~ $0.50-$1.00 / GGE
Can I pump Natural Gas at home?Maybe…
Assume 100% NG vehicle penetration
NG refueled from the home line, 8pm – 6am,
Assume 33 miles average use per day (12,000 mi/yr), 4.5 ft3 / mile
About 150 ft3 NG / day for the car
Average US house = 260 ft3 NG / day
Yes - we add 50-100% NG volume
Will Home Refueling of NG cars Require a new pipelines?
SynFuelNo new pipelinesUse existing Gas StationsNo change to carsCan also use Coal, Biomass
Many $$$ SynFuel plants
NG for SynFuel or NG cars?
NG CarsNo SynFuel plantsOvernight Home Refueling
Cars cost moreCars don’t go as farNeed new gas lines everywhereRefit 100,000 gas stations
My Opinion: SynFuels will win
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
HYBRIDS
•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Engine off at stop lights•Start engine and car•Store about 1-2 brake cycles
•Full (Prius)•Drive electric only > 1 mile•Electric only at low speed•Store long downhill energy
•Plug in (Prius+)•Drive electric only > 20 miles•Use IC engine to extend range indefinitely•IC engine drives the wheels directly
50 mpg, well engineered, affordableThis is a young/mature technology
This uses a 110 lb NiMH batteryReplacement cost $3,000275 Volts, 1.3 kWh 1.1 pint gasoline, 3-4 miles travel (100% depletion)
All energy used is from Gasoline
Full Hybrids - Prius
To go 40 miles (PHEV40), need ~15x energy storage
1600 lb battery costing $25,000 - $35,000
Therefore PHEV requires a different kind of battery
That battery is the Lithium Ion battery
PRIUS PHEV, using same battery
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
Like a Hybrid with a BIG battery
Plug it in overnight to charge the battery
Run as far as you can on battery
Then start using the gasoline engine as a normal hybrid
PHEV20 can go 20 miles on electric only
Infinite gas mileage on days you go less than 20 miles
If you go 40 miles every day, you get 100 mpg
Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Basics
Your gas mileage gets better with bigger batteries
But
Your electric bill goes up as gasoline costs go down
PHEV has enormous potential gas mileage
http://www.epa.gov/oppt/nano/p2docs/casestudy3_chiang.pdf
PHEV 40, with 90% of charging done 8pm – 6am, 100% penetration
At 300 Wh / mile, 12 kWh of energy for a full recharge
1.2 kW charge rate required, well below the 2-3 kW peak power demand per house.
Efficient use of off peak power, wind powerInefficient use of solar power
Raises the base load, possibly lowers the peaking load.
NO not if we charge at night
Will Home Recharging of PHEVsRequire a new powerlines?
RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Electricity Cost
Compare to 30 mpg car Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile30 miles @ 0.3 kWh / mile = 9 kWh1 Gallon Gasoline = 9 kWh9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35
$1.35 electricity = 1 Gallon Gasoline
RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost
Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity
Battery Life: 400–1000 cycles (think laptop batteries)
New batteries ~$1 / Wh A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000
Battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh stored9 kWh * $1 / kWh stored = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!!
Our cost = $1.35 electricity + $9.00 wear = $10.35
Today’s batteries cost us $10.35 / GGE
RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost
Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity
Battery Life: 400–1000 deep discharges (think laptop batteries)New batteries ~$1 / Wh. A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000If the battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh @ $1.00 = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!!Our cost = $10.35 / gge
Cut battery cost by 50%Increase battery life by 5Total cost becomes $2.35 / GGE
What do we need?
Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs
http://www.cmu.edu/me/ddl/publications/2009-EP-Shiau-Samaras-Hauffe-Michalek-PHEV-Weight-Charging.pdf
Distance Between Charges (miles)
Prius
28 MPG car
Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs
http://www.cmu.edu/me/ddl/publications/2009-EP-Shiau-Samaras-Hauffe-Michalek-PHEV-Weight-Charging.pdf
Lifetime cost per mile comparisons
Ibid.
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
Prius+
generator
motor
engine
combiner wheels
electronicsbattery
generator
motor
engine
wheelselectronicsbattery
Chevy Volt
Chevy plans on a 70 hp engine
What is the smallest engine that would work?
How much engine does the Volt need?
50 hp allows indefinite climb on a 6% grade at 68 mph
70 hp
http://images.thetruthaboutcars.com/2008/05/ev-performance-simulation.pdf
The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine
Linear GeneratorsMicroturbines
The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine
Linear GeneratorsMicroturbines
Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)
Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)
EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)
OK to run short errands
No good for long distances
Refill gasoline or NG tanks in ~5 minutes
Recharge batteries in 30 minutes to many hours
Fast charging damages batteries
Battery Only Cars
Not likely:
DieselMild HybridsBattery Only
Fuel Cell
CONCLUSIONS
Slightly reduced Oil supplySlightly increased NG supply
Small Gasoline CarsHybrids PHEV
CONCLUSIONS
Greatly reduced Oil supplyGreatly increased NG supply
Natural Gas carsPHEV
Synfuel
CONCLUSIONS
Greatly reduced Oil supplyGreatly increased Electric supply
PHEVSynfuel
CONCLUSIONS
Economic Depression
Small Gasoline Cars
CONCLUSIONS
Big CO2 Taxes
Small gasoline carsPHEV
Biofuels
CONCLUSIONS
Poor Lithium Battery Progress
HybridsNatural Gas Cars
CONCLUSIONS
Slow decrease in Oil supplySlow increase in NG supply
Coal power NG powerCO2 Sequestration Fails
Anthro Climate Change AcceptedLithium Battery ProgressEconomic NG Synfuels
HybridsPHEV
Synfuels replace Corn Ethanol
My Best Guess next 20 years
Big decrease in Oil supplyBig increase in NG supply
Widespread SynFuels/BioFuelsBig CO2 taxes
PHEV like VOLT
My Best Guess 20-50 years
Thanks for Listening
COMIC RELIEF (maybe)
http://mediagallery.usatoday.com/Editorial-Cartoons/G373,S89401
Addendum: How to Solar Power a Car?
Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas•Electrolysis of water
NO CO2
AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?
Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas
But this throws energy away. Use the same natural gas in a NG HybridEven a NG regular car uses less NG per mile and costs much less
AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?
Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas•Electrolysis of water
Very energy inefficient. Electrolysis is ~60% percent efficient in volumeFuel Cell is 60% efficient in H2 e-Overall 36% conversion efficiencyBatteries are 80%-90% efficient use of e-
AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?
Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas•Electrolysis of waterNO CO2Only true if you make H2 by electrolysis.Only true if electricity comes from nuclear, wind, solar, etc.For the next 50 years, use any new green electricity to close coal plants.After you close all the coal plants, close all the NG power plants.
AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?
Requires 3 major breakthroughs & big, new infrastructure
1) Develop a cheap, efficient, small H2 storage method (metal hydride?)2) Invent a solar powered H2 source (engineered algae?)3) Elimination of CO2 as a problem for the world (H2 power plants?)4) Deploy an H2 infrastructure (H2 is difficult to pipeline)
3 major breakthroughs is unlikely.
AddendumWhat would make fuel cells a contender?
Addendum - Solid Fuel for Cars?
Woodgas – Steam reform pyrolizing wood, Burn the H2, CO gas in your modified gasoline engine
http://www.whatiamupto.com/gasification/woodgastruck.html
http://www.scificool.com/the-truth-about-eatr/
DARPA project – EATR: Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot
Addendum - Solid Fuel for Cars?
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/02/business/02metrics/02metrics-popup-v3.jpg
Energy: From Where, To What