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Andrea Apollonio and Odei Rey Orozko
Workshop follow-up meeting
CERN, August 25th, 2016
AVAILABILITY MODELLING WORKSHOP
OVERVIEW, OUTCOME AND PLANS
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Index
• Availability Modelling Workshop overview.
• Comparison of different software packages.
• Update of AvailSim project.
• Future Plans.
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- AVAILABILTY MODELLING WORKSHOP OVERVIEW-
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PARTICIPANTS
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OBJECTIVES AND AGENDA
LUNCH BREAK
RAMI STUDIESThe performed and on-going RAMI
studies in the accelerator domain
were presented
SOFTWARE PACKAGES &
SYNERGIES
Mo
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essio
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Discussion
Introduction, R. SchmidtIncreasing interest and effort invested
into reliability and availability studies
Identify the needs that arise when
performing such a study in different
projects.
Understand the functionality of each
software, advantages and limitations.
Discuss synergies for collaboration
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LEV
EL
3LE
VE
L 1
Run LS
LTS HWC CWB Physics
MD TS CWB
END
TS CWBMD
IDLEInjec-tion
RAMP SBRamp Down
FaultPre
Cycle
LEV
EL
2
1. AVAILABILITY STUDIES FOR FCC, ARTO NIEMI (CERN)
• The LHC model was presented.
• State based chain model together with Faults trees.
• Elmas simulation software is used to model the LHC and its operational modes.
• Future work: the study of the FCC based on scaling up the LHC and injector chain.
• Cryogenics FT can be used for other accelerators…. MYRRHA
• Use model to define availability budgets for sub-systems.
RAMI STUDIES
DATA SOURCE 1
DATA SOURCE 2
DATA SOURCE N
RAMSDB
INPUT DATA
RAMS DB RESULTS
EXPERT KNOWLEDGE DATA
Reliability data Data into the model Cloud computation Storing the results
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2. PSB RF SYSTEM UPGRADE AVAILABILITY STUDIES, ODEI REY (CERN)
• An overview of the PSB RF System was given.
• Two dependability studies performed and compared: Monte Carlo Simulations and Analytical
methods.
• The PSB RF System is modelled in Isograph by Reliability Block Diagrams (more than 5000
components).
• Interesting to compare the execution time of the simulations in different tools.
• Common failures need to be considered to get correct results.
• Extension using ISOGRAPH to a large machine (CLIC) difficult, since so many components.
RAMI STUDIES
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3. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF RADIATION PROTECTION MODELS, SASKIA HURST (DE)
• CROME radiation Monitoring System structure and functional analysis was presented.
• The study aims to assess if the required SIL2 for CROME is achieved.
• CROME system MTTF calculated with Isograph Prediction tool.
• An FMEA had been performed in Isograph and RPN assigned
to each component.
• The calculated MTTF and assigned RPN for each component
were presented in a Risk matrix.
• Focus not only on components also on interfaces between components ( cabling, connectivity)
RAMI STUDIES
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4. AVAILABILITY STUDIES FOR MYRRHA, ADRIAN PITIGOI (EA)
• MYRRHA – long term supporting research facility for Accelerator Driven Spallation System.
• SNS Linac modelled in RiskSpectrum. Results in line with the SNS logbook.
• MYRRHA reliability model built in Risk Spectrum (Fault Tree solved analytically). .
• Reliasoft’s BlockSim software tool will be used for further RAMI studies of MYRRTHA.
• Failure database for MYRRHA developed from SNS and Linac4 failure catalogue.
• Ideas for most dependable architecture to be discussed.
• Maintenance phases not possible to model in RiskSpectrum.
RAMI STUDIES
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5. IFMIF Accelerator Facility RAMI analyses, Enric Bargalló (ESS)
• International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility challenges and requirements presented.
• RAMI studies performed to analyse different design options and propose changes in the machine.
• Analytical calculations were done using RiskSpectrum (Fault trees). Results compared to HA requirements.
• Decision to adopt AvailSim 2.0 software for availability modelling.
• Definitions of terms needed for availability allocation: Hardware Avail, Beam Effectiveness and Beam Avail.
• Some components failures and degraded operation can be modelled.
RAMI STUDIES
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6. Isograph, Andrea Apollonio (CERN)
7. ELMAS, Jussi-Pekka Penttinen (Ramentor)
8. AvailSim, Enric Bargalló (ESS)
9. Realist IMA Modelling tool, Thomas Herzig (DE)
SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX
SOFTWARE PACKAGES
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• Software-features matrix development.
• Use Linac4 as a use-case for AvailSim 3.0.
• Collaboration with ESS under discussion.
• Possibility to model Linac4 with the different software packages (under discussion):
• Input data: Linac4 reliability run.
• Compare modelling process.
• Compare results and performance.
• Find similarities.
• Activity possibly followed up in the RASWG.
• Proposal for a common input format of the models.
Commonformat
Intermediate Translators
Isograph
Elmas
AvailSim
Realist
Results
Results
Results
Results
Co
mp
are
and
va
lidate
SYNERGIES FOR COLLABORATION
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- COMPARISSON OF DIFFERENT SOFTWARE PACKAGES-
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SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX I
AvailSim 3.0Elmas 4.8
(new version)Isograph Realist Reliasoft/BlockSim RiskSpectrum
Reliability estimation x x x x x
Availability prediction x x x x x x
Maintanability analysis x x x x x
FR Calculations *C
o
mx x
FMEA x x x
Weibull analysis x xOnly for results, no for
time failure datax
Lifecycle cost x x x x
Monte Carlo
Simulationsx x x x x
Analytical calculations Reliability
Petri-Nets x
Markov state model x
Fault Trees x x x x
Block Diagrams x x x x
Manual/from GUI x x x x x
From external files text filesExcel files (structure
and data separatelly).pnml files
Blocks from
Xfmea/RCM/RBIx
Application
Model definition
Calculation method
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SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX II
AvailSim 3.0Elmas 4.8
(new version)Isograph Realist Reliasoft/BlockSim RiskSpectrum
Failure mode categories
P
r
e
v
i
o
x x x x x
Phase dependent
failure distributions *1 x x
Accelerator specific
parameters
P
a
r
a
x x
Degraded operation
A
r
e
d
x x Only ageing behaviourOnly parameter
"throughput"
Maintenance strategies x x By tricks x With restrictions
Machine states/phases *1 x x x
*1 x
System reliability
structureFrom text files Excel *1 x
Component data x x x x x x
System reliability
structurex Excel, HTML Readable in XML x x x
Component data x x x x x x
Component librariesC
o
mx ?
Results x x x x x x
Import
Export
Accelerator driven
modelling features
Reliability allocation to components
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SOFTWARE FEATURES MATRIX III
AvailSim 3.0Elmas 4.8
(new version)Isograph Realist Reliasoft/BlockSim RiskSpectrum
Military Handbook *
T
h
e
M
i
x x
Create component
libraries
C
o
m
p
x x x x
Custom reports Excel, HTML x x x
Plotting features x x x x x
Accelerator domain
terms
T
h
e
t
e
x x
Open Commercial Commercial Research tool Commercial Commercial
Python Java *2 x
In text file DragManual renaming of
componentsx x
x x Simulation & Watch x ?
*3 x x
*1 Possible but not
implemented yet
Possibility to change,
improve, add or remove
features easily
*1 RAMalloc can be
included in ELMAS
*2 Platform independent
(Java)
*3 Project can be stored
in any file based
centralized cloud
*1 Only the RBR part of
the CSM
*Only in german, English
availability checked if
requested
Widely used in similar
complex machines (e.g.
ITER)
Verified for use in Nuclear
power plants
Copy/Paste
Debugging
Centralized Data Storage
Comments
Component libraries
Results
Open source / Commercial software
Customizable
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- UPDATE OF AVAILSIM PROJECT-
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AVAILSIM 3.0
• AvailSim: Simulation open source software for RAMI Analysis.
→ AvailSim 1.0: Developed by Stanford University (Tom Himel and his team). MatLab.
→ AvailSim 2.0: Adaptation of the software for IFMIF RAMI Analysis. MatLab.
→ AvailSim 3.0: Software being exported to Python at ESS in collaboration with SLAC.
• Core to be ready beginning of September.
• Possible collaboration with ESS in the development and debugging of the software.
• To be applied to Linac4 and CLIC availability studies.
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- FUTURE PLANS-
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FUTURE PLANS
• Provide forum and support for development of:• LHC and HL-LHC models• Models for future machines
(CLIC, Linac4, FCC, MYRRHA)• Based on inputs from existing
availability tracking tools.• Identify strengths and
weaknesses of different software packages.
• Validate results with different software packages.
• Standardize inputs for simulation.
Availability
Reliability
Provide forum and support for:• Reliability specifications for individual
systems.• Evaluation of system architectures.• Calculation of failure rates according to
standards (e.g. MIL).• Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis.• Maintenance Plans.• Use of software tools (templates,
guidelines,…).
Testing
When requested, provide support for:• Planning and execution of reliability runs.
(e.g. Linac4)
Document reference 22
Thanks a lot for your attention!
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