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Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Surjit S BhallaWorkshop on Employment
World Bank - ICRIERNew York,
Sept 27, 2011
Sept 2011Surjit Bhalla 1
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions2Surjit Bhalla
Overview• Work in progress
• Major focus: Inclusion and growth;• Indian experience – lends itself to myriad of explanations –
hence, the Rashomon effect • Official view: Poverty has been declining at only 1
percentage point year, despite a tripling of per capita GDP growth
• To accelerate this decline, government needs to provide both direct subsidies (food, diesel, fertilizer) and large scale “digging” ditches employment program.
• All of these programs were in effect in 1983, and are in effect in equal and greater force today.
Sept 2011
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions3Surjit Bhalla
continued…
• Alternate view – the above perspective, and policies, are hugely outdated, most likely wrong, and most likely pernicious for the Indian economy
• Reality – globalization a major force, India benefitted hugely, and is today a transformed place; Poverty less than 10 percent of the population (not 32 percent), middle class close to 50 percent
• Need different employment and poverty reduction policies
Sept 2011
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions4Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Table 1: Discreet Creep of the World Bank Poverty LinesPoverty Line Ratios in Local Currency
Region PL05/PL93 PL93/PL85 PL05/PL85
Developed Economies 0.67 0.79 0.54
East Asia 1.54 0.86 1.33
China 1.65 0.86 1.42
Russia & Eastern Europe 0.89 0.65 0.56
Latin America 0.95 0.79 0.71
Middle East & North Africa 0.74 0.79 0.6
South Asia 1.43 0.98 1.41
India 1.42 0.91 1.29
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 0.83 0.82
Total 1.21 0.86 1.04
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions5Surjit Bhalla
Problems in Measurements – Sharp Decline in NSS Estimates
Sept 2011
Survey to National Accounts Ratio in India
Year Survey National Accounts Survey/NA Ratio
1983 123.4 152.9 80.7
1993/94 333.5 539.6 61.8
1999/00 586.9 1057.5 55.5
2004/05 728.8 1472.3 49.5
2007/08 976.6 2068.7 47.2
2009/10 1197 2649 45.2
Notes: The survey and national accounts estimates are in current rupees per capita per month; the NA estimate is for the base year prevailing at the time of the survey.
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions6Surjit Bhalla
Poverty – Sharp Decline
Sept 2011
Poverty and poverty gap in states of India, 1983 - 2009/10
Poverty - Tendulkar line Poverty gap
Social category Percentage of population Percentage distance from line
19831993/
942004/
05 2007/08 2009/10 1983 1993 2004 2007 2009
Dis-privileged 72.1 62.4 50.6 38.7 38.2 32.8 26.6 23.6 19.9 21.5
- SC 72.6 63.7 51 39.9 38.8 33.9 26.8 23.1 20.2 21.5
- ST 80.6 68.9 62.7 45.3 44.0 36.3 28 26.5 19.7 23.1
- SCST 75.2 65.3 54.1 41.5 40.4 34.8 27.2 24 19.9 22.1
- Muslims 64.8 55.6 43.6 32.6 33.2 28.4 25.4 22.9 20.3 20.2
Privileged 51.9 39.8 29.3 20.4 20.3 27.8 22.3 19.9 16.8 18.9
All groups 58.5 47.8 37.1 27.9 32.5 29.8 24.1 21.5 18.5 20.3
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions7Surjit Bhalla
Poverty – MDG reached a decade earlier
Sept 2011
Poverty and poverty gap in states of India, 1983 - 2009/10
Poverty - Official line Poverty gap
Social category Percentage of population Percentage distance from line
19831993/
942004/
05 2007/08 2009/10 19831993/
94 2004/05 2007/08 2009/10
Dis-privileged 55.6 43 31.7 21.9 22.1 28.8 23.6 23.9 20.5 18.9
- SC 56.1 43 30.6 22.5 22.4 29.5 24.2 23.3 20.5 18.4
- ST 62.8 46.3 39 23.4 23.9 30.5 23.7 25.3 19.5 20.4
- SCST 58.3 44 32.8 22.8 22.8 29.9 24 23.8 20 19
- Muslims 49.2 40.7 29.5 19.6 20.3 26.4 22.8 24.4 21.9 18.7
Privileged 34.7 23.5 16 9.8 10.5 24.7 21.4 21 18.6 17.1
All groups 41.6 30.4 21.8 14.8 15.3 26.5 22.4 22.3 19.7 18.2
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions8Surjit Bhalla
With perfect targeting only 0.4% of GDP needed for Zero Absolute Poverty (Tendulkar Line)
Cost of Poverty Removal
Sept 2011
Cost of poverty removal in India, 1983 - 2011/12
1983/84 1993/94 2004/5 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12
Population (in mil) 723 892 1089 1138 1190 1200
Percentage poor (Tendulkar line) 58.5 47.8 37.1 27.9 27.5 19
Poor Population (in mil) 423 426 404 318 327 228
Poverty line (Rs. Per month) 114 271 488 591 727 886
Percent poor gap 29.8 24.1 21.5 18.5 20.3 16
Cost of removal of poverty with perfect targeting (000 cr) 17 33 51 42 57 39
Nominal GDP (000 cr) 221 866 3130 4700 6039 8974
Perfect targeting (% of GDP) 7.80 3.86 1.63 0.89 0.90 0.43
Notes: All data for 2011 are estimates
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions9Surjit Bhalla
Consumption Inequality – Increase in last five years
Sept 2011
NSS Consumption Inequality (Gini) in India 1983-2009/10
Year 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05 2007-08 2009-10
Measure,Nominal
Uniform Recall (30 days) 32.6 32.7 32.3 36.8
Mixed Recall (30/365 days) 30.4 30.3 32.3 35.1 34.8 36.4
Modified Mixed Recall (7/30/365) 35.4
Adjusted to National Accts 36 37.8 36.5 43.4 42.4 46.6
Measure,Real
Uniform Recall (30 days) 31.9 30.4 29 32.8
Mixed Recall (30/365 days) 29.5 27.8 29 30.8 30.7 32.8
Modified Mixed Recall (7/30/365) 32.0
Adjusted to National Accts 35.4 35.5 33.2 39.8 37.8 42.8
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions10Surjit Bhalla
Income Inequality
Sept 2011
Income Inequality in India - 1983-2009
YearWage Income Per
PersonWage Income Per
Household
Nominal Real Nominal Real
1983 0.53 0.53 0.50 0.50
1993 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.46
1999 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49
2004 0.56 0.53 0.53 0.50
2007 0.54 0.50 0.52 0.49
2009 0.53 0.50 0.52 0.49
% change 1983/09 0 -5.6 4 -2Source: NSSO employment-unemployment data, different years
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions11Surjit Bhalla
Real Consumption Growth, by percentiles, 1983-2009/10
Sept 2011
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
zp09
83k
0 20 40 60 80 100ptile
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions12Surjit Bhalla
Real Consumption Growth, Difference percentiles, 1983-2009/10
Sept 2011
Notes: Each percentile represents the difference in growth rates of the poor and rich percentile e.g. the first percentile represents the difference in growth of the 1st and 100th percentile; second the difference in growth of the 2nd and 99th etc.
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
zd09
83k
0 10 20 30 40 50ptile
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions13Surjit Bhalla
Real Wage Income Per Person Growth, by percentiles, 1983-2009/10
Sept 2011
60.0
80.0
100.
012
0.0
140.
0zp
0983
pp
0 20 40 60 80 100ptile
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions14Surjit Bhalla
Real Wage Income Per Person Growth, Difference percentiles, 1983-2009/10
Sept 2011
Notes: Each percentile represents the difference in growth rates of the poor and rich percentile e.g. the first percentile represents the difference in growth of the 1st and 100th percentile; second the difference in growth of the 2nd and 99th etc.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
zd09
83pp
0 10 20 30 40 50ptile
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions15Surjit Bhalla
Sharp Decline in Education Inequality
Sept 2011
Education Inequality in India - 1983-2009
Year India Rural Urban Female Male
1983 0.71 0.76 0.56 0.79 0.63
1993/94 0.66 0.69 0.53 0.73 0.59
2004/05 0.58 0.62 0.47 0.64 0.52
2007/08 0.52 0.54 0.42 0.58 0.46
2009/10 0.49 0.52 0.41 0.55 0.43
% change 1983/09 -31 -31.6 -26.8 -30.4 -31.7Source: NSSO employment-unemployment data, different years
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions16Surjit Bhalla
Education – Girl Catch-up
Sept 2011
Progress of Youth Education in India, 1983 - 2009/10
Years of Education (ages 8-24) Literacy (% of population of age 8-24)
State 1983 2009 % changeFemale/
Male 1983 2009 % change Female/MaleAndhra Pradesh 3 7.1 136 90 51 91 78 94Bihar 2.6 5.1 96 78 43 80 86 85HP 4.7 7.8 66 104 78 99 27 99Madhya Pradesh 2.9 6.2 114 89 52 89 71 91Maharashtra 4.6 7.8 69 97 73 97 33 98Orissa 3 6.7 123 93 54 92 70 94Rajasthan 2.6 6.1 135 78 45 97 115 86Tamil Nadu 4.4 8.1 84 101 73 99 36 99Uttar Pradesh 3.1 6 93 92 51 87 70 91West Bengal 3.7 6.3 70 97 63 93 48 97All India 3.6 6.7 86 93 60 91 52 94Bimaru states 2.9 5.9 103 87 49 87 78 90Small states 5.1 7.4 45 98 77 98 27 98North East 4.5 7 55 100 78 99 15 99Notes: Bimaru states refers to the aggregate of the poor states - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and UP.Literacy is defined as greater than or equal to two years of education
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions17Surjit Bhalla
Education – the Poor Catch-up
Sept 2011
Youth Educational Attainment, 1983 - 2009/10
Social category Average years of schooling Relative female/male education (in %)
19831993/
942004/
05 2007/08 2009/10 1983 1993/94 2004/05 2007/08 2009/10
Dis-privileged 2.5 3.4 5.4 5.5 6.0 51.9 64.7 82.8 88.1 90.3
- SC 2.5 3.4 5.5 5.7 6.1 46.5 60.4 80.8 88.3 89
- ST 2 3 4.9 5.3 5.8 43.6 57.5 79 80.8 84.1
- SCST 2.3 3.3 5.3 5.6 6.0 45.4 59.4 80.2 86 88.9
- Muslims 2.9 3.7 5.4 5.4 5.9 64.4 75.8 88.9 92.2 91.8
Privileged 4.3 5.2 6.9 6.8 7.2 66.8 77.2 87.6 92.7 94.6
All groups 3.6 4.5 6.3 6.3 6.7 62.8 73.4 85.8 90.8 92.7
Notes: Youth defined as those between 8 and 24 years.
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions18Surjit Bhalla
Evolution of Middle Class in India, 1980 – 2010
Sept 2011
010
2030
4050
Sha
re o
f Mid
dle
Cla
ss in
Pop
ulat
ion
(in %
)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Notes: Middle Class line defined to be the poverty line in developed economies - PPP $8.2 per capita per day 1996 prices or PPP$ 4000 in 2010 prices. In 2010 rupees, the middle class line for India is Rs. 3840 per capita per month or for a family of four, Rs. 1.8 lakhs a year. On a per capita per day basis, the Tendulkar poverty line in 2010 would be approximately Rs. 25; the middle class line, Rs. 121
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions19Surjit Bhalla
LFPR for age group 15-59 declined from 62.1% to 56.6% However if we take school/college going into account, LFPR(adj)
decline from 71.2% to 68.9% Thus some decline can be explained by movement from labor force
into education Most of the decline in LFPR is contributed by females in age 25-59
(43.6% to 34.4%), especially rural females (50.7% to 39.9%) Sharp decline in rural women of age 25-59 self-employed in
agriculture (27.2% to 18%) The poor show a larger decline, but result preliminary
Employment Trends 2004/5-2009/10
Sept 2011Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions20Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
15-24 25-59 15-59
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
1983 50.3 72.2 27.7 66.0 94.3 37.0 60.7 86.8 33.8
1993/94 48.4 66 29 68.7 95.1 41.6 62.1 85.4 37.6
2004/05 46.0 63.2 27.2 69.5 95.3 43.3 62.1 84.9 38.4
2009/10 36.3 51.8 18.8 65.5 96.3 34.4 56.6 82.2 29.8
Labor Force Participation Rates in India, 1983-2010
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions21Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Decline for females, 25-59
15-24 25-59 15-59
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
1983 66.5 95.2 36.7 66.2 94.5 37.1 66.3 94.8 36.9
1993/94 71.1 95.0 45.0 68.9 95.4 41.7 69.6 95.2 42.8
2004/05 74.1 95.8 50.5 69.8 95.6 43.5 71.2 95.7 45.7
2009/10 75.7 96.2 52.6 66.0 96.8 34.7 68.9 96.6 40.0
Adjusted for Education: Labor Force Participation Rates
*Adjusted labor force includes persons reporting to attend educational institutionAvoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions22Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Consumption Percentiles Male Female
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
2004/05 17.2 20.6 22.1 22.5 17.6 20.4 21.7 21.7 21 15.3
2009/10 19.7 21.2 21.8 20.7 16.4 21.3 22 19.6 20.6 16.1
Labor Force Participation Rate by Consumption Levels
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions23Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Male Female
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
2004/05 16.4 18.3 19.6 21.3 24.2 19.7 20.4 20.4 20.6 18.8
2009/10 16.8 18.4 19.7 21.5 23.5 18.6 18.9 20.6 21.6 20.2
Labor Force Participation Rates (25-59 years)
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions24Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Real Wage per day per person
Overall Regular Salaried Casual Labor
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
1983 46 54 26 77 80 55 28 32 20
1993/94 58 67 36 103 108 77 36 41 27
1999/00 76 87 48 141 147 114 44 50 32
2004/05 83 94 53 138 146 101 49 55 35
2007/08 86 97 53 155 163 117 46 52 32
2009/10 104 114 73 177 185 140 63 69 48
Growth 1983-1993 26% 24% 38% 34% 35% 40% 28% 28% 35%
Growth 1993-2010 79% 70% 102% 72% 71% 82% 75% 68% 77%
Real Wage
*Wage was deflated using rural price index of 2004/05 as deflator Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions25Surjit Bhalla
Real Monthly Per Capita Wage
Income
Real Monthly Per Capita Consumption of those reporting
wage incomeOverall Real Monthly Per Capita
Consumption
Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
1983 1221 876 2166 503 414 746 486 442 642
1993/94 1561 1159 2563 554 474 757 546 497 698
1999/00 2075 1476 3466 554 465 761 540 482 693
2004/05 2261 1625 3547 719 602 958 703 618 911
2007/08 2571 1826 4075 659 539 902 636 554 831
2009/10 2927 2080 4517 724 585 985 700 602 910
Growth 1983-1993 28 32 18 10 14 1 12 12 9
Growth 1993-2009 87 79 76 30 23 30 28 21 30
Wage Income Vs Consumption
*Wage was deflated using rural price index of 2004/05 as deflator
Sept 2011Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions26Surjit Bhalla
Real Monthly Per Capita Wage
Income
Real Monthly Per Capita Consumption of those reporting
wage incomeOverall Real Monthly Per Capita
Consumption
Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
1983 1221 876 2166 503 414 746 486 442 642
1993/94 1561 1159 2563 554 474 757 546 497 698
2004/05 2261 1625 3547 719 602 958 703 618 911
2009/10 2927 2080 4517 724 585 985 700 602 910
Growth 1983-1993 2.3% 2.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.2 0.09 1.1 1.1 0.8
Growth 1993-2009 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.6
Wage Income Vs Consumption
*Wage was deflated using rural price index of 2004/05 as deflator
Sept 2011Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions27Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Casual Worker workdays in a week
(Mn)Total Workdays in a week
(Mn) Ratio (a/b)
Total (a) Rural Urban Total (b) Rural Urban
1983 390 344 46 1546 1255 291 0.25
1993/94 587 507 80 2150 1648 502 0.27
1999/00 645 555 90 2253 1693 560 0.29
2004/05 645 558 87 2751 2046 705 0.23
2007/08 944 802 142 3000 2176 824 0.31
2009/10 812 684 128 2757 1923 834 0.29
Workdays: Casual Vs Total
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions28Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
LFPR 15-24 25-59 15-59
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
1983 50.3 72.2 27.7 66.0 94.3 37.0 60.7 86.8 33.8
1993/94 48.4 66 29 68.7 95.1 41.6 62.1 85.4 37.6
1999/00 44.6 62.2 25.6 67.5 94.6 39.8 60.2 84 35.3
2004/05 46.0 63.2 27.2 69.5 95.3 43.3 62.1 84.9 38.4
2007/08 40.8 59.6 20.4 66.4 95.8 37.0 58.5 84.3 32.0
2009/10 36.3 51.8 18.8 65.5 96.3 34.4 56.6 82.2 29.8
Labor Force Participation Rate
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions29Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
LFPR Adj
15-24 25-59 15-59
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
1983 66.5 95.2 36.7 66.2 94.5 37.1 66.3 94.8 36.9
1993/94 71.1 95.0 45.0 68.9 95.4 41.7 69.6 95.2 42.8
1999/00 70.3 93.3 45.5 67.8 94.9 40.0 68.6 94.4 41.7
2004/05 74.1 95.8 50.5 69.8 95.6 43.5 71.2 95.7 45.7
2007/08 73.4 96.1 48.6 66.7 96.1 37.2 68.8 96.1 40.7
2009/10 75.7 96.2 52.6 66.0 96.8 34.7 68.9 96.6 40.0
Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate
*Adjusted labor force includes persons reporting to attend educational institutionAvoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010
Inclusion & Growth in India: Some Facts, Some Conclusions30Surjit Bhalla Sept 2011
Education, Wages and Per Capita Income, India - China, 1993 - 2010India China
1993 2007 2010 1993 2007 2010Education (Mean Years)Males 4.9 6.1 6.3 6.9 8.9 9.3Females 2.6 4.1 4.4 6.3 8.1 8.4Average 3.8 5.1 5.4 6.6 8.5 8.9
Wages (Monthly, PPP $)NH Survey (urban areas only)Male 75 194 65 247Female 59 148 55 184All 73 186 61 220
Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU (Monthly, US $)
115 375 453 49 273 449
Per Capita Income (PCI):US $ 26 82 97 43 169 347PPP $ 139 404 504 193 726 1152
Relative Education Based Wages - China:India (in %)Average 100 100 100 133.6 140.8 142
Relative Wages - China:India (in %)
NH Survey 100 100 83.6 118.3EIU 100 100 100 42.6 72.8 99.1PCI US $ 100 100 100 165.4 206.1 357.7PCI PPP $ 100 100 100 138.8 179.7 228.6
Notes: NH Survey - National Household Survey; Survey wages are for wage and salaried workers in urban areas; Economist Intelligence Unit (Monthly, US $) wage data for India and China are for the Manufacturing/Business Sector; Wages PPP $ are with a 2000 base; Per Capita Income PPP $ are with a 1996 base; For every 1 year of education, wages increase by 12%. Therefore, relative education based wages are calculated as - (mean education years for China - mean education years for India)*12
Sources: India - NSS Surveys 1993/94 , 2007/08 and 2009/10; China - Urban Household Survey, 1992 & 2006 see Bargain et al.(2008); Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU);; Education data from Barro - Lee Dataset, 2010.
Avoiding Rashomon: The Reality of Education, Employment and Earnings in India, 1983-2010