Post on 17-Dec-2015
transcript
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
All around the CEE region, the banking sector is characterised by widespread relevance of foreign capital. A limited number of international players considers the region as a second home market. Such international players are among the top players in several countries of the region and profit from a widespread cross-regional network.
While structural transformation is almost completed in most of the traditional destinations, additional markets are gradually opening and represent the new opportunity for international players. In particular, we view Russia, Turkey, Ukraine as the new frontiers of a regional strategy. The consolidation process at the international level represents another significant driver for structural transformation in the region, like in the case of the UniCredit-HVB merger, which brought to the creation of the by far largest player at the regional level and to a renewed process of consolidation at the single country level.
The CEE region represents a fast growing market of more than 1,000 billion euro of total banking assets, with still bright prospects for growth, given the persistently favourable macroeconomic environment and relative under-penetration compared to Eurozone countries
Loans financial deepening is increasing, fuelled by both demand and supply factors, resulting in a significant increase of loans over GDP ratio from 24% to 32% in the 2000-2005 period (CEE12). Lending growth has been particularly fast in SEE countries and Russia followed by Turkey. Fast lending expansion is expected to continue, driven by the retail segment and sustained by favourable corporate lending performance. The fastest dynamic is expected in Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Romania.
Increasing financial deepening on the lending side has been accompanied by substantially stable pattern in deposits. In the years to come, acceleration of investment activities and portfolio diversification are expected to lead to a reduction in the deposit over GDP ratio in Central Europe (Poland, the Czech R., Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia) while still a good dynamic is expected in the rest of the region
Overall, the banking profitability outlook remains positive
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AGENDA
Evolution of banking systems in CEE
Presence and ranking of international banking groups in the region
Relevance and positioning of international players at single country level
4
MORE THAN 1,000 € BLN MARKET IN TERMS OF TOTAL ASSETS, WITH LARGELY INTERNATIONAL BANKS AND STILL IMPORTANT GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
2005i
No. of banks(1)Market share Total Assets(3) Total Gross Loans Total Deposits
Foreign banks TOP 3(2) € bln % of GDP € bln % of GDP € bln % of GDP
EU Members
Poland 61(4) 70%(4) 37%(4) 152 60% 77 30% 99 39%
Hungary 34 84%(5) 38% 75 87% 46 53% 37 43%
Czech Republic 36 85%(6) 56% 102 99% 40 39% 65 63%
Slovakia 23 98% 47% 37 96% 14 36% 21 55%
Slovenia 22(6) 19%(6) 50% 29 107% 15 56% 16 57%
Estonia 13 99% 88% 12 112% 6 56% 5 47%
Latvia 23 58% 54% 16(7) 123% 7 55% 4 31%
Lithuania 12 86%(8) 67% 13 63% 7 32% 6 28%
EU Candidates
Croatia 34 91% 54% 35 114% 21 68% 19 61%
Bulgaria 34 76% 34%(9) 17 78% 9 43% 10 49%
Romania 39 88%(10) 50%(11) 35(7) 45% 17 22% 22 28%
Turkey 31 19% 45% 249 81% 96(16) 31% 152 50%
Others
Russia 1,205(15) 9% 39% 285(7) 45% 159 25% 156 25%
Serbia 40(12) 66% 36% 9 48% 5 27% 5 25%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 33 89%/98%(13) 54%(14) 6(7) 81% 4 51% 4 47%
Ukraine 165 n.a. n.a. 36 50% 23 32% 18 25%
Total CEE 17 1,805 46%(17) 50%(18) 1,108 66% 545 33% 638 38%
Euro Area 6,403(6) 25%(6) - 17,895 224% 9,141(16) 115% 7,395 93%
Sources: local Central Banks, ECB, Banking Associations and Supervisory Authorities and Unicredit-NE Research Network(i) All banking systems’ figures converted using eop exchange rates vs €; nominal GDP converted using avg exchange rates
(1) Including commercial and savings banks, foreign bank branches while excl. cooperatives; (2) Based on unconsolidated figures unless otherwise stated; market shares are based on net assets figures according to local accounting standards; (3) Figures are expressed as net values unless otherwise stated; (4) As of Q3 2005; (5) Based on gross assets; (6) As of 2004; (7) Gross figures; (8) Based on share capital of Lithuanian Banks owned by foreign investors; (9) Based on IAS results; (10) Including BCR; (11) Including HVB Tiriac & UCR proforma; (12) Excluding OFIs; (13) Data refer to Rep of Srpska; (14) For Hypo Alpe Adria, market share based on Group’s results; (15) Excluding non-bank credit organisations; (16) Based on net figures; (17) Excluding Ukraine; (18) Unweighted average
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DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS (BOTH STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL) BEHIND LENDING GROWTH
Evolution of banking loans in CEE-12(1)
(% of GDP)
24% 24%22%
25%28%
32%35%
37%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
Total loans’ volumes growth(2)
(2000 =100, in € terms)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
Central Europe (Poland,Czech R.,Hungary,Slovakia)
SEE (Croatia,Slovenia,Serbia,Bosnia,Romania,Bulgaria)
Russia
Turkey
Russia39% p.a.
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) Including Poland, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Russia and Turkey; excl. Ukraine and the baltics;(2)Total loans include general govt, non-financial corporations and retail and where
available non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) and Non-MFIs
Turkey12% p.a.
SEE 21% p.a.
CE12% p.a.
CAGR ’00-’08
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TWO DIGITS LENDING GROWTH LEADING TO FAST INCREASES IN BANKING PENETRATION ON THE ASSETS SIDE (+2.7% OF GDP ON AVERAGE PER YEAR), HOWEVER WITH STRONG CROSS COUNTRIES DIFFERENCES
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) Total loans include general govt, non-financial corporations, households
and where available NPISHs and Non-MFIs
32
42
79
36
5046
62
31
42
63
78
42 40
68
53
3227
56
51
36
22
3943
25
3130
0
20
40
60
80
100
Poland Turkey Croatia Russia Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Romania Slovakia Bosnia Slovenia Serbia CEE-12
2005 2008
Evolution of banking loans1 by country (% of GDP)% country over
CEE loansTotal loans
2008CAGR '05-'08
(loc. currency)Poland 11% 10%Turkey 16% 27%Croatia 3% 13%Russia 45% 34%Bulgaria 2% 16%Czech Republic 6% 14%Hungary 7% 13%Romania 4% 25%Slovakia 2% 14%Bosnia 1% 17%Slovenia 3% 19%Serbia 1% 34%CEE-12 - 24%
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RETAIL LENDING TO REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVER OF VOLUMES GROWTH, WITH GOOD MACRO PROSPECTS SUPPORTING A FAVOURABLE CORPORATE LENDING PERFORMANCE
Expected evolution of retail loans1
(CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) Including households and (when available) NPISHs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Serbia
Slovenia
Bosnia
Slovakia
Romania
Hungary
Czech R.
Bulgaria
Russia
Croatia
Turkey
Poland
CEE-12
Expected evolution of corporate loans(CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Serbia
Slovenia
Bosnia
Slovakia
Romania
Hungary
Czech R.
Bulgaria
Russia
Croatia
Turkey
Poland
CEE-12
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RELATIVELY STABLE BANKING PENETRATION ON THE LIABILITIES SIDE, …
Evolution of banking deposits in CEE-12(1)
(% of GDP)
32%35% 34% 34%
36%39% 39% 39%
41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
Total deposits’ volumes growth(2)
(2000 =100, in € terms)
0
500
1,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
Central Europe (Poland,Czech R.,Hungary,Slovakia)
SEE (Croatia,Slovenia,Serbia,Bosnia,Romania,Bulgaria)
Russia
Turkey
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) Including Poland, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Russia and Turkey; excluding Ukraine and the baltics;(2) Total deposits include general govt, non-financial corporations, households and when
available NPISHs and Non-MFIs
Russia32% p.a.
Turkey11% p.a.
SEE17% p.a.
CE9% p.a.
CAGR ’00-’08
9
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) Total deposits include general govt, non-financial corporations, households and where available NPISHs and Non-MFIs
61
49
63
43
57
39
55
33
55
3235
50
25 2528
55
47
39
58
53
58
43
54
38
60
41
0
20
40
60
80
100
Poland Turkey Croatia Russia Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Romania Slovakia Bosnia Slovenia Serbia CEE-12
2005 2008
Evolution of banking deposits by country (% of GDP)1
… WITH DIFFERENT PATTERNS AMONG COUNTRIES
% country over CEE deposits
Total deposits
2008CAGR '05-'08
(loc. currency)Poland 13% 7%Turkey 20% 19%Croatia 2% 7%Russia 41% 32%Bulgaria 2% 16%Czech Republic 8% 4%Hungary 5% 7%Romania 4% 16%Slovakia 3% 7%Bosnia 1% 14%Slovenia 2% 7%Serbia 1% 29%CEE-12 - 17%
10
Expected evolution of retail deposits1
(CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) Including households and (when available) NPISHs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Serbia
Slovenia
Bosnia
Slovakia
Romania
Hungary
Czech R.
Bulgaria
Russia
Croatia
Turkey
Poland
CEE-12
Expected evolution of corporate deposits(CAGR ’05-’08, local currency)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Serbia
Slovenia
Bosnia
Slovakia
Romania
Hungary
Czech R.
Bulgaria
Russia
Croatia
Turkey
Poland
CEE-12
GOOD PROFITABILITY OF THE CORPORATE SECTOR EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN GROWTH IN DEPOSITS’ VOLUMES AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL WITH RETAIL PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN RUSSIA, ROMANIA, BULGARIA, SERBIA, BOSNIA AND TURKEY
11
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f
WE EXPECT THE REGION TO CONTINUE TO DELIVER GOOD RESULTS IN TERMS OF BANKING PROFITABILITY
€21.0bn
CAGR 2005-08: +15.2%
€32.0bn
NET PROFITSBefore tax / extr items
€16.5bn
€28.4bn
€25.4bn
Sources: Central Banks and Unicredit-NE Research Network(1)Net Profit for the Banking Sector is before tax and extraordinary items.
CAGR ’05-’08
(local currency)
Net InterestIncome
Net non-interest income
Net revenues
Net profit(1)
Poland 10% 9% 9% 10%
Turkey 5% 10% 7% 14%
Croatia 4% 9% 6% 10%
Russia 24% 24% 24% 21%
Bulgaria 12% 14% 12% 13%
Czech R. 5% 9% 7% 7%
Hungary 7% 12% 9% 8%
Romania 10% 19% 15% 11%
Slovakia 1% 16% 7% 9%
CEE-9 13% 14% 13% 15%
Bulgaria2%
Czech R.7%
Poland13%
Romania3%Hungary
7%
Russia35%
Croatia3%
Turkey26%
Slovakia3%
% country over CEE-9 NetProfit(1) (2005)
€ bn
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AGENDA
Evolution of banking systems in CEE
Presence and ranking of international banking groups in the region
Relevance and positioning of international players at single country level
13
5
5
5
7
9
15
17
530
608
556
301
490
460
1,325(1)
1,744
1,545
1,928
1,083
1,435
1,898
4,379(1)
19.0
39.4
42.7
20.1
26.9
40.7
86.2(1)
Proforma 2005, as of perimeter May 2006i
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network; numbers converted using avg and eop ex. rates from UIC for P&L and BL figures, respectively
(i) 100% of total assets, revenues and profit after tax (before min.interests) for controlled Companies (stake > 50%) and share owned for non controlled companies; proforma results include also banks acquired during 2005 and 2006;
(ii) After tax, before minority interest(iii) Including direct and indirect presence in the 21 CEE countries, excluding representative offices
(1) Excluding Splitska Banka, Vienna Profit Center and other UCI’s minorities (Unicredit Securities&Unicredit leasing BG) while including proforma Nova Banjalucka Banka (full year), Hypo Stavebni Sporitelna and 50% of KFS-Yapi combined entity (full 2005 normalised for Yapi); BankTiriac, Hebros and Eksimbanka consolidated proforma for the full year; (2) Including Azerbaijan; (3) Including proforma Erste Serbia; (4) Including proforma BCR; (5) Including proforma Impexbank; Bank Aval fully consolidated since 1st Oct 2005; (6) Excluding Kosovo; (7) Including proforma Splitska Banka; (8) Including proforma KMB and Intesa Beograd; (9) Including proforma Ukrsotsbank and UPI Banka (as of Sep ’05); (10) Revenues for KMB and UPI Banka n.a.; (11) Including proforma Niska Banka and Zepter Banka; profits are before tax; P&L of OTP Hrvatska doesn’t include Q1 2005
Consol. Assets (€ bln)i Total Revenues (€ mln) Net Profit before min.int. (€ mln)ii Countries of presenceiii
Erste
Unicredit
48.7(4) 2,406(4) 711(4)
RZB
KBC
42.3(5) 2,026(5) 481(5)
SocGen
Intesa
OTP19.1(11)
22.1(9)
30.1(7)
1,561(11)
1,212(9)(10)
1,551(7)
609(11)
326(9)
531(7)
9(9)
10(7)
6(4)
6(11)
(3) (3)(3)
(8) (8) (8)
(2)
A SMALL NUMBERS OF INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS DOMINATING THE MARKET WITH ROUGHTLY 26% MARKET SHARE IN TERMS OF ASSETS…
(6)
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Privately&State owned54%
Foreign-owned46%
INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS PREVAIL ALL OVER THE REGION WITH STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION STILL ONGOING IN RUSSIA, TURKEY AND SLOVENIA
86%
58%
99%
66%
19%
89%98%88%84%85%
76%
9%
91%
19%
70%
36%(3)
Po
lan
d
Tu
rke
y
Cro
atia
Ru
ssia
Bu
lga
ria
Cze
ch R
.
Hu
ng
ary
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
vaki
a
Bo
snia
Slo
ven
ia
Se
rbia
Est
on
ia
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Market share of foreign-owned banks1 (% of total banking system assets, 2005)CEE Total assets2 by ownership, 2005*
Sources: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local Central Banks’ data(1) For Czech R. and Slovenia figures refer to end of 2004; for Lithuania, figures refer to share capital of Lithuanian
Banks owned by foreign investors; the ratio is computed considering 100% of assets when shareholding > 50% (2) Excluding Ukraine;(3) Including total assets controlled by non-residents with less than 50% of management rights
*Excl. Russia and Turkey foreign ownership 78%
15
Branches Employees (ths)
Erste
RZB
SocGen
Intesa
OTP
UniCredit
KBC
… AND STRONG FINANCIAL PENETRATION AND CEE FRANCHISE WITH AROUND 12,000 BRANCHES AND 230,000 EMPLOYEES
(1) Excluding Splitska Banka while including Nova Banjalucka Banka, Eksimbanka (employees as of Sep ’05) and 100% of KFS-Yapi branches and employees; including Splitska, branches and employees would be 3,068 and 66.3 ths, respectively; figures as of dec 2005 recasted end of March; figures for loans and deposits do not include Vienna Profit Center; (2) Including proforma BCR and Erste Bank Serbia; (3) Including proforma Impexbank; (4) Including proforma Splitska banka; employees of SG Yugoslav bank n.a. (5) Including proforma KMB, Intesa Beograd, Ukrsotsbank and UPI banka; (6) Including proforma Niska banka, Zepter banka and OTP Hrvatska; (7) Employees of Zepter banka n.a.
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network(i) 100% of branches (excluding representative offices) and employees; for Unicredit, figures on employees are FTE;(ii) Only loans/deposits to/from customers (excluding amounts to/from banks); figures for loans are net values
1,668(2)
2,633(3)
1,027(4)
1,286(5)
1,000(6)
2,956(1) 65.0(1)
32.2(2)
48.7(3)
16.7(4)
24.9(5)
14.7(6)(7)
Proforma 2005, as of perimeter May 2006 i
1,237 28.6
Loans+Deposits (€ bln)ii
99.7(1)
55.3(2)
51.1(3)
34.5(4)
27.1(5)
22.1(6)
46.1
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INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS IN THE FIELD WITH DIFFERENT BACKGROUND AND MARKET APPROACH
PL TK HR CZ RU BG HU RO SK BiH SI FRY (1) UA AL AJ(2) KZ(3) MK BY(4) BLT(5)
R Representative Office Among the top 5 banks in the country in terms of total assets
I Indirect presence Minority stakeM
Note: (1) Serbia & Montenegro (2) Azerbaijan (3) Kazakhstan (4) Belarus; (5) Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania; (6) LithuaniaSource: Banks’ Annual Report and Investor Relations
ERSTE
KBC M
OTP
CITIGROUP
RZB M R(6)
INTESA I R IR
UNICREDIT R
Presence
SOCGEN I R RR
Perimeter as of May 2006
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 5 10 15 20
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network(i) Including both direct and indirect presence
STRATEGIC POSITIONING OF INTERNATIONAL GROUPS IN THE CEE REGION – FOCUSED VS WIDESPREAD STRATEGY
Number of countries of active presence(i)
Nu
mb
e r o
f T
op
5Strategic positioning: country of operation and size in each market
(size = total assets controlled in the region)
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AGENDA
Evolution of banking systems in CEE
Presence and ranking of international banking groups in the region
Relevance and positioning of international players at single country level
19
TOP BANKS IN BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
0,2
0,5
0,7
0,7
0,8
1,3
1,5
UPI banka
Hypo Alpe-Adria Banja Luka
Hypo Alpe-Adria Mostar
HVB Central Profit Banka
UniCredit Zagrebačka Banka
Raiffeisen Bank BiH
UniCredit ZagrabačkaBanka+HVB Central Profit
Banka (proforma)
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Unicredit Group)
(Unicredit Group)
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
(Unicredit Group)
(Raiffeisen International)
(Intesa Group)
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and press releases(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; for Nova Banjalucka Banka (NBB) figures are
according to IFRS and expressed as gross values thus the overall market share may be overestimated due to the different standard(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards;(3) Including proforma Nova Banjalucka Banka
Market share2
25%
21%
13%
12%
11%
4%
8%
(3)
(3)
20
TOP BANKS IN CROATIA
1,0
1,2
2,6
3,2
3,9
4,1
6,4
8,6
Slavonska banka
OTP Hrvatska
Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank
HVB Splitska
Raiffeisenbank Austria
Erste & Steiermarkische Bank
Privredna Banka Zagreb
Zagrebačka Banka
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Erste Group)
(Unicredit Group until June ’06 Société Générale Group as of July)
(Raiffeisen International)
(Unicredit Group)
(Intesa Group)
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
(OTP Group)
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on Banka Magazine figures(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Market share2
24%
18%
12%
11%
9%
7%
3%
3%
21
TOP BANKS IN BULGARIA
0,9
1,3
1,4
1,6
1,7
1,8
2,3
3,5
Bulgarian Post Bank
First Investment Bank
Raiffeisen Bulgaria
UBB
HVB Bank Biochim & Hebros Bank
Bulbank
DSK bank
Bulbank+HVB BankBiochim+Hebros Bank (proforma)
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Unicredit Group)
(NBG)
(Raiffeisen International)
(Unicredit Group)
(Unicredit Group)
(OTP Group)
(Majority private capital)
(EFG Eurobank)
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and BNB(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results; for DSK bank, figures are
according to hungarian IAS(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to international accounting standards;
Market share2
21%
14%
11%
10%
9%
5%
10%
8%
22
TOP BANKS IN ESTONIA
0,04
0,20
0,90
1,06
2,54
6,94
TallinnaÄripanga
EestiKrediidipank
Sampo Pank
Nordea Bank
Eesti Ühispank
Hansapank
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; for Nordea Bank
figures are consolidated and thus overall market share may be overestimated due to different standard (2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system according to international accounting standards
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(SEB)
(Latvian Business Bank)
(Majority private local capital)
(Sampo Group)
(Swedbank)
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Market share2
59%
21%
~9%
8%
0.3%
2%
(Nordea Group)
23
TOP BANKS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
2,7
3,6
5,7
7,4
17,8
22,6
25,4
Raiffeisenbank
Commerzbank
HVB Bank Czech Rep.
HVB Bank Czech Rep.-Živnostenská Banka (proforma)
Komercni Banka
Česká Spořitelna
CSOB
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Société Générale Group)
(Commerzbank)
(Unicredit Group)
(KBC Group)
(Erste Group)
(Raiffeisen International)
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Market share2
25%
22%
17%
6%
4%
7%
3%
(Unicredit Group)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and CNB(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results (except for
Commerzbank whose figures are unconsolidated according to local accounting standards;(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
24
4,0
5,0
5,7
5,8
6,5
7,5
14,2
HVB BankHungary
RaiffeisenHungary
Erste
CIB
MKB
K&H
OTP
TOP BANKS IN HUNGARY
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Bayerische Landesbank)
(Erste Group)
(Intesa Group)
(Majority foreign capital)
(KBC Group)
(Raiffeisen International)
(Unicredit Group)
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and MNB(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results;(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Market share2
19%
10%
9%
8%
8%
5%
7%
25
TOP BANKS IN LATVIA
0.8
1.0
1.1
2.6
2.8
3.2
Nordea Bank
Rietumu banka
NORD/LBLatvija
Parex Bank
SEB Unibanka
Hansabanka
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(SEB)
(DnB Nord Bank ASA)
(Majority private local capital)
(Swedbank)
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
(Majority private capital)
(Nordea Group)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results;(2) Based on gross unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Market share2
20%
17%
17%
7%
5%
6%
26
TOP BANKS IN LITHUANIA
0.8
0.9
1.3
1.5
3.5
4.4
Nordea Bank
Sampo bankas
Bankas Snoras
NordLB (DnBNord Bank)
AB BankasHansabankas
Vilniaus Bankas
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(SEB)
(DnB Nord Bank ASA)
(Swedbank)
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
(Conversgroup - LUX)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results;(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
(Sampo Bank Plc.)
Market share2
34%
27%
12%
10%
6%
7%
(Nordea)
27
TOP BANKS IN POLAND
7,7
8,5
8,6
10,9
15,0
16,1
23,8
31,0
Bank ZachodniWBK
Citibank Handlowy
BRE Bank
ING Bank Slaski SA
Bank BPH
Bank Pekao
PKO BP
Bank Pekao-BankBPH (proforma)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results;(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Majority shareholder
(State)
(ING Group)
(Commerzbank)
(CitiGroup)
(AIB Ltd)
(Unicredit Group)
(Unicredit Group)
(Unicredit Group)
Market share2
20%
16%
11%
10%
7%
6%
6%
5%
28
TOP BANKS IN RUSSIA
5.9
6.5
6.7
6.8
12.7
18.4
73.7
Rosbank
Bank ofMocow
Uralsib bank
Alfa-bank
Gazprombank
Vneshtorgbank
Sberbank
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Gazprom – State3)
(Majority private local capital)
(State)
(State)
(Majority private local capital)
(Moscow City Government)
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on Interfax Rating Agency(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results;(2) Based on gross figures for total banking system’s assets;(3) In the end of 2005 Dresdner bank acquired ~33% stake
(Private local capital)
Market share2
26%
6%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
29
1,4
2,0
2,8
3,4
4,8
4,9
6,0
6,8
UniBanka
HVB Bank Slovakia
ING Bank
HVB BankSlovakia+UniBanka
(proforma)
CSOB
Tatra Banka
VUB
SlovenskáSporitelna
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Raiffeisen International)
(Unicredit Group)
(KBC Group)
(Erste Group)
(Intesa Group)
(ING Group)
(Unicredit Group)
Total Assets IAS (€bn)
TOP BANKS IN SLOVAKIA
(Unicredit Group)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and NBS(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results except for ING (unconsolidated and LAC) and CSOB (unconsolidated);(2) Based on total banking system’s assets according to harmonised statistics (IAS)
Market share2
18%
16%
13%
13%
9%
7%
4%
5%
30
TOP BANKS IN ROMANIA
1,5
1,6
1,8
2,6
3,0
3,1
5,2
9,0
Casa de Economii si Consemnaiuni
Banc Post
ING Barings Romania
HVB Bank Romania+ Banca Tiriac(proforma)
Raiffeisen Bank (Romania)
UniCredit Romania+HVB BankRomania+Banca Tiriac (proforma)
Banca Romana Pentru Dezvoltare
Banca Comerciala Romana
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Unicredit Group)
(Unicredit Group)
(ING Group)
(Raiffeisen International)
(Erste Group)
(Société Générale Group)
(EFG Eurobank)
(State)
Total Assets LAS (€bn) Market share2
26%
15%
9%
7%
5%
4%
9%
4%
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and BNR(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results;(2) Based on unconsolidated net figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
31
TOP BANKS IN SLOVENIA
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,5
3,0
9,2
Banca Celje
Banka Koper
Bank AustriaCreditanstalt
SKB banka
Abanka Vipa
Nova kreditnabanka Maribor
Nova Ljubljanskabanka
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Majority private local capital)
(Unicredit Group)
(SanPaolo IMI Group)
(Société Générale Group)
(State & KBC)
(State)
(Nova Ljubljanska banka)
Total Assets LAS (€bn)
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and Central Bank(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results;(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for the total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Market share2
31%
10%
9%
7%
6%
6%
6%
32
TOP BANKS IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
0,9
0,8
1,0
1,4
0,5
0,5Vojvodanska
banka Novi Sad
HVB bankBeograd
Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank
Beograd
Komercijalnabanka Beograd
Banca IntesaBeograd
RaiffeisenbankBeograd
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on local banks’ financial statements and NBS(1) Total assets according to international accounting standards based on consolidated results;(2) Based on net unconsolidated assets for the overall banking system according to local accounting standards
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Intesa Group)
(Hypo Alpe-Adria-Group)
(Unicredit Group/BA-CA)
(State)
(State)
(Raiffeisen International)
Total Assets IAS (€bn) Market share2
16%
11%
10%
9%
5%
6%
33
TOP BANKS IN TURKEY
9,3
15,0
17,0
20,3
22,9
25,2
32,9
40,0
40,9
Koç
YKB
Halk
Vakif
Garanti
Koç+YKB(proforma)
Ak
Is
Ziraat
Source: Unicredit-NE Research Network based on Bankers’ Association figures and BRSA(1) Total assets according to local accounting standards based on unconsolidated results; for the Koc-YKB combined entity figures
refer to proforma results including only Q4 of YKB P&L data;(2) Based on net unconsolidated figures for total banking system’s assets according to local accounting standards
Total Assets1, market share and ownership
Majority shareholder
(Sabanci Group)
(Doğuş Group & GE)
(State)
(Unicredit & Koc Group)
(State)
(IsBank Pension fund)
(State)
(Unicredit & Koc Group)
(Unicredit & Koc Group)
Total Assets LAS (€bn) Market share2
16%
16%
13%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
4%
34
METHODOLOGY
The comparison covers the following 16 countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine and Turkey;
In the ranking of international players, the CEE region includes the above mentioned 16 countries plus Albania, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Macedonia;
Banking results’ in the first part of the comparison (up to slide 17) are according to local IAS (with the exception of SKB and SG Vostok – owned by SocGen – UPI Banka – owned by Intesa – Niska Banka and Zepter Banka – owned by OTP – in local accounting standards). For Erste Bank Croatia and RZB figures are according to austrian IAS while for OTP according to hungarian IAS and may thus slightly differ from the local IAS;
Data are proforma 12M including deals closed as of May 2006. Only in a few cases proforma 12M results are not available (for details see notes on the slides);
Data refer to consolidated results of the bank (with the exception of OTP Hungary);
Data correspond to the sum of stand-alone results of CEE subsidiaries considering 100% of total assets, revenues and net profits (after tax and before minority interests) if shareholding > 50%. If < 50%, figures are shown proquota; for employees and branches, we consider 100%; only for RZB figures refer to overall results of Raiffeisen international as no data were available for most of its subsidiaries. This implies some underestimation of 2005 performance given that some banks are not fully owned (i.e. Tatra Banka, Priorbank, Raiffeisen Croatia, Raiffeisen Czech R., Raiffeisen Hungary, Raiffeisen Serbia, Raiffeisen Bosnia and Raiffeisen Krekova Banka);
Figures may differ from those published in Groups’ results due to differences in the accounting standards (local vs home country ones), number of quarters consolidated (as we include where available full year results) and consolidation effects;
The comparison among top banks at single country level (from slide 18) is based on a variety of different data which not always correspond to international accounting standards. Moreover, results will be/were published in individual countries only after this report was prepared. Market shares have been calculated based on data reported to the national banks on unconsolidated basis and according to LAS. Therefore in some countries (Bulgaria, Czech R., Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia) the numerator and the denominator do not have the same delineation and may thus overestimate the overall size of each bank in the market. The comparison nonetheless gives a picture of the relative sizes and trends in the single banking markets of the region.
Closing date Mid June 2006