Bruce Braes

Risk & Quality ManagerWest Pilbara Iron Ore Project

Australia

What is Horizon Scanning?Horizon Scanning is...

“…. the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.”

(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)

• Thinking “Out of the Box”

• Exposure to multiple sources, ideas, and challenges

• Getting out of the comfort zone both personal and organisational

Horizon scanning is……Horizon scanning is……

Wide Ranging Research Techniques- Reaching beyond usual sources

Anticipating the future – Looking beyond usual timescales

Using

HORIZON SCANNING IS NOT………

PREDICTING THE FUTURE

WHY ?• Consider more than the ‘single expected Consider more than the ‘single expected

future’future’

• Analyse a ‘range of possible futures’ and Analyse a ‘range of possible futures’ and consider their implications on today’s consider their implications on today’s decisionsdecisions

• Facilitates to greater flexibility and Facilitates to greater flexibility and agility in strategic planningagility in strategic planning

• Enhance the resilience of the organisationEnhance the resilience of the organisation

Intelligence versus Evidence

Change

Trends

Patterns

DRIVERS

• Organisation Wide • Group Think • Project Focus • Issue Focused • Thinking Out of the Box • Citation Analysis • Scouting and Researching Expanded Networks • Stakeholder Surveys • Social Media • Culture

PESTLE Framework

Legal & Regulatory

Technological

Social

Economic

NOW, NEXT, NEWAPPROACH

ConclusionIn order to avoid the

We need to look to the future rather than dwell on the past