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REAL ESTATE
BELGRADE
Q4 2013
Izveštaj o BeograduT4 2013
on point
Belgrade City ReportQ4 2013
2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013
Economy/Investment
Economy
Due to international and domestic challenges, the economic risks in
Serbia remained high throughout 2013. As the country attracts
significant inflows of FDI, industry will play a major role in economic
growth. Serbian exporters will enter new markets, due to
established trade relations with the EU and regional neighbours.
Besides the FIAT plant in Kragujevac, which is the main pillar of the
Serbian economy, another positive factor is final preparation for the
start of the construction works of the South Stream natural gas
pipeline, connecting Russia and Western Europe. According to the
National Statistical office, real GDP growth in the third quarter of
2013 was 3.7% compared to the same period of last year. A
significant growth of gross value added sectors was recorded in
electrical energy, gas and steam supply (20.5%), information and
communication (12.5%), processing industry (8.7%) and the mining
industry (8.3%). A significant decrease was recorded in the
construction sector (-26.0%), followed by the transportation sector
(-3.5%).
According to IHS Global insight, real GDP increased from 1.6% to
2.0%, due to a significant acceleration of growth during the third
quarter. Real GDP growth in 2014 has been reduced from 3.0% to
1.9%, due to a dampening effect on fiscal consolidation and a
limited capacity for further expansion of agriculture.
GDP Growth (%) Rast BDP(%)
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, January 2014
According to the National Statistical Office, consumer price growth
in December 2013 increased by 0.2% in comparison to the
previous month. The highest growth was recorded in the sector of
Clothes and footwear (1.1%), Communication (0.7%) and Food and
non-alcoholic drinks and Alcohol drinks and tobacco (both 0.3%).
In November 2013, industrial production noted an increase of 4.2%,
in physical volume, in comparison to the corresponding period of
last year. The processing industry, electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply mainly influenced this increase.
According to the Labour Force Survey conducted by the National
Statistical Office, the unemployment rate among people of a
working age (15-64) in October 2013 was 21% which represents a
decrease in comparison to April 2013 when it was 25%. IHS Global
Insight forecasts an unemployment rate of 24.2% for 2014.
Unemployment Rate (%) Stopa nazaposlenosti (%)
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, January 2014
The average net salary paid in December 2013 amounted to RSD
50,820 or €443. When compared to the previous month, this was
an increase of 14.5% in nominal terms. The average net salary in
Belgrade for December 2013 amounted to €543 which is
approximately 22.5% higher than the national average salary..
Political Situation
Country’s future economic development depends largely on the
foreign policy approach. EU member states endorsed European
Commission recommendation for Serbia to start negotiations in
January 2014. Belgrade has set a timeframe for completion of 35
chapters of accession negotiation by 2020. All the indications are
positive that Serbia will successfully complete the transition to full
EU membership.
The country also pursues closer relations with Russia, with a view
to secure financial support. Public confidence in the trustworthiness
of state institutions has been improving in Serbia.
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
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On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q4 2013 3
Privreda/Investicije
Privreda
Usled brojnih izazova na domaćem i inostranom tržištu, ekonomski
rizik je ostao na visokom novou tokom čitave 2013. godine. Glavni
uticaj na ekonomski rast prilikom privlačenja stranih direktnih
investicija će imati industrijska proizvodnja. Usled uspostavljenih
trgovinskih odnosa sa EU i susednim regionalnim zemljama,
izvoznici iz Srbije će ući na nova tržišta. Pored FIAT fabrike koja
predstavlja stub srpske ekonomije, drugu svetlu tačku čine završni
radovi za početak izgradnje gasovoda Južni tok, koji povezuje
Rusiju i Zapadnu Evropu. Na osnovu podataka Zavoda za statistiku,
realni rast BDP-a tokom trećeg kvartala 2013. godine iznosi 3,7% u
odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Značajan rast je zabeležen
u sektoru električne energije, gasa i pare (20,5%), informacija i
komunikacija (12,5%), preradjivačke industrije (8,7%) i rudarstva
(8,3%). Najveći pad je zabeležen u sektoru gradjevine (-26,0%), i
zatim transportnom sektoru (-3,5%).
Prema informacijama IHS Global Insight, usled značajnog ubrzanja
rasta tokom trećeg kvartala, realni BDP je porastao sa 1,6% na
2,0%. Realni rast BDP-a tokom za 2014. godinu je smanjen sa 3,0%
na 1,9% usled lošeg finansijskog prilagodjavanja i ograničenog
kapaciteta za dalju ekspanziju poljoprivrede.
CPI (%) Inflacija (%)
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, January 2014
Prema Anketi o radnoj snazi koju sprovodi Republlički zavod za
statistiku Srbije, rast potrošačkih cena u decembru 2013. godine je
porastao za 0,2% u odnosu na prethodni mesec. Najveći rast je
zabeležen u sektoru Odeća i obuća (1,1%), komunikacija (0,7%) i
hrana i bezalkoholna pica i alkoholna pica i duvan (oba 0,3%).
Tokom novembra 2013. godine industrijska proizvodnja beleži rast
fizičkog obima od 4,2% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine.
Najveći uticaj na ovo povećanje su imale prerađivačka industrija,
električna energija, gas, para i klimatizacija.
Na osnovu Ankete o radnoj snazi koju sprovodi Republički zavod za
statistiku, stopa nezaposlenosti lica radnog uzrasta (15-64) u
Oktobru 2013. godine je bila 21%, što predstavlja pad u odnosu na
april 2013. godine kad je iznosila 25%. Prema IHS Global Insight,
očekivana stopa nezaposlenosti tokom 2014. godine će iznositi
24,2%.
Yields % Stope prinosa %
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Prosečna neto zarada isplaćena tokom Decembra 2013 iznosila je
50,820 dinara odnosno €443, što predstavlja povećanje od 14,5% u
nominalnom iznosu. Prosečna neto zarada na nivou Beograda za
isti period iznosi €543, što je oko 22,5% više od prosečne plate u
zemlji.
Politička situacija
Budući ekonomski razvoj zemlje umnogome zavisi od pristupa
spoljnoj politici. Države članice Evropske unije su podržale odluku
Evropske komisija o početku pregovora sa Srbijom u januaru 2014.
godine. Beograd je postavio rok za ispunjenje 35 poglavlja o
pristupanju do 2020. godine. Svi pokazatelji su pozitivni da će Srbija
uspešno završiti tranziciju ka punopravnom članstvu u EU.
Srbija teži bližem odnosu sa Rusijom, sa ciljem da se obezbedi
finansijska podrška. Poverenje javnosti u pouzdanost državnih
institucija je u porastu.
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Sector/Sektor Yield/ Stopa Prinosa %
Changes on previous quarter/
Promene u odnosu na
prethodno tromesečje
Office/ Kancelarijski prostor 9,00 ↓
Logistics/ Logistički objekti 10,25 ↔
Retail/ Maloprodajmi prostori
Shopping Centres/ Tržni centri9,00
↔
4 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013
Office Market
Supply
2013 was marked by one office building completion, namely Danube
Business centre, which added 5,200 m2 GLA to the market. This
building was 60% occupied six months after its opening, indicating
the lack of modern office space. Belgrade’s office stock remains at
the same level of 615,454m2 GLA. Approximately 54% of Belgrade’s
total office stock consists of Class A office buildings, located mainly
in the Central Business District – New Belgrade.
The only project scheduled for completion in 2014 is the Old Mill
office tower, which will increase the office stock by 3,870 m2 GLA in
the third quarter. This is a mixed-use complex, including an office
building and hotel, which will operate under name Radisson Blu Mill
Beograd, located near the Belgrade Fair. Interested tenants have
already begun negotiations to lease office space, in order to adjust
the office space layout to their needs.
Total Class A & B Stock (m2) / Ukupna ponuda prostora klase
A i B (m2)
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Demand
In the last quarter of 2013, gross take-up stood at 8,922 m2. Market
activity was mainly dominated by new lease agreements of 7,142
m2, followed by expansions of 1,560m2 and lease renewals of 220
m2.The majority of transactions happened in New Belgrade.
Total activity during 2013 stood at 60,028m2 recording an
approximate 34% increase in comparison to 2012, excluding owner
occupied deals. Gross take-up in Q4 2013 recorded a slight drop
when compared to the corresponding period of last year. There
were 17 transactions in Q4 and the average deal size was 525 m2.
The highest share in leasing activity was held by the IT and
Professional services sectors, followed by the pharmaceutical and
manufacturing sectors. The majority of tenants continue to seek
floor sizes in range of 100-500 m2. Three transactions exceeded
1,000 m2.
Vacancy
Due to very low new supply, the vacancy rate continued its
decreasing trend, similar to the past 3 years. The rate currently
stands at 10.8%, indicating the need for new office development.
The vacancy rate in class A office buildings stands at 11.5% and
10% in Class B space.
Office Completions (m2) and Vacancy Rates (%) Class A & B
/ Završena izgradnja (m2) i stopa nepopunjenosti (%)
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Rents and Yields
Over the last twelve months, prime office rents in Belgrade
remained stable at €14-16 m2/month. Rents in Class B premises in
New Belgrade range between €9-13 m2/month and in the downtown
€10-12 m2/month. In the wider New Belgrade area, rents are up to
€11 m2/month and within modern office space in downtown areas,
rents do not surpass 16 m2/month. We do not anticipate any
changes over the short term. Incentives such as rent-free periods
(usually three months), fit-out contributions and additional free
parking spaces are offered by landlords. The prime office yield in
Belgrade remained at the level of 9.00%.
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On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q4 2013 5
Kancelarijski prostor
Ponuda
Protekla 2013. godina je obeležena završetkom Danube poslovnog
centra, što je dodalo 5,200m2 na tržištu poslovnog prostora. Nakon
šest meseci od otvaranja, zgrada je dostigla 60% popunjenosti,
ukazivajući na nedostatak modernog poslovnog prostora. Beograd
raspolaže sa 615,454m2 prostora. Oko 54% ponude čini
kancelarijski prostor klase A, koji je uglavnom nalazi u centralnoj
poslovnoj zoni - Novi Beograd.
Jedini projekat u izgradnji, čiji je završetak planiran u trećem
kvartalu 2014. godine je Stari Mlin (3,870m2), u blizini beogradskog
sajma. Pored kancelarijskog prostora, kompleks uključuje i hotel koji
će poslovati pod imenom Radisson Blu Mill Beograd. Zainteresovani
zakupci su već počeli pregovore oko iznajmljivanja poslovnog
prostora, kako bi prilagodili izgled prostora njihovim potrebama.
Prime Office Yields %
Stopa prinosa prvoklasnog prostora %
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Potražnja
Tokom poslednjeg kvartala ukupan bruto zakup je iznosio 8,922m2.
Najveće udeo na tržištu su imale nove transakcije 7,142m2, zatim
proširenje postojećih prostora 1,560m2, i obnove postojećih ugovora
220m2. Većina transakcija se dogodila na Novom Beogradu.
Ukupna aktivnost tokom 2013 godine iznosi 60,028 m2,
predstavljajući rast od 34% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu
izuzimajući prostor koji je zauzet od strane vlasnika. Bruto zakup u
četvrtom kvartalu beleži blagi pad u odnosu na isti period 2012
godine. Ukupno je bilo 17 transakcije i prosečna veličina izdatog
prostora iznosi 525m2.
Najveće učešće na tržištu su imali sektor IT i profesionalnih usluga,
zatim farmaceutski i proizvodni sektor. Većina zakupaca I dalje traži
prostor veličine 100-500m2. Dogodile su se tri transakcije koje su
obuhvatile prostor preko 1,000m2.
Raspoloživi prostor
Zbog niske ponude novoizgradjenog poslovnih objekata, stopa
raspoloživog prostora je nastavila trend opadanja. Trenutna stopa
iznosi 10,8%, ukazujući na potrebu za izgradnjom novog poslovnog
prostora. Stopa nepopunjenosti u prvoklasnih poslovnim zgradama
je oko 11,5%, dok je u zgradama klase B oko 10%.
Prime Rents €/m2/month
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Visine zakupa i stope prinosa
Tokom prethodnih dvanaest meseci cene prvoklasnog prostora u
Beogradu su ostale stabilne, odnosno €14-16m2 mesečno. Zakup
kancelarijskog prostora klase B poslovnog prostora na Novom
Beogradu je u rasponu od €9-13m2 mesečno,a u centru grada od
€10-12/m2/mesečno. Zakupnine u širem području Novog Beograda,
su do €11m2 mesečno, a u modernom kancelarijskom prostoru u
centru grada, ne prelaze preko €16m2 mesečno. Ne očekujemo
nikakve promene u kratkom roku. Vlasnici prostora i dalje nude
podsticaje poput rent-free period (uglavnom tri meseca), dodatnih
parking mesta bez naknade i učešće zakupodavaca u troškovima
završnih radova. Stopa prinosa za prvoklasne kancelarijske prostore
u Beogradu je ostala na nivou od prethodnog kvartala kad je pala na
9,00%.
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6 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013
Retail Market
Supply
Over the last decade, the Belgrade retail market has experienced
a fair degree of modernization with developments such as
shopping centres, retail parks and big box schemes. During
2013, Belgrade market saw the opening of Stadium Centre
Voždovac, which added 30,000 m2 GLA of modern shopping
stock to the market. Since its completion, prime shopping centre
stock in Belgrade stands at 128,000 m2 GLA or 78 m2 per 1,000
residents, while the total shopping centre stock comprises
201,000 m2 GLA.
Another expanding concept includes retail parks, which are
becoming more popular among retailers, due to the lack of
modern shopping centers. In November 2013, BIG CEE retail
park in Novi Sad completed its third phase, which added
16,000m2 GLA, while the whole park totals 34,000 m2 GLA.
Shopping Center Stock in Belgrade (m2)
Ponuda tržnih centara u Beogradu (m2)
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
IBC Retail Park in Zemun, Belgrade (15,000 m2 GLA) is currently
under construction and scheduled for delivery in Q2 2014.
Outside the capital, there are two more retail parks scheduled for
2014, namely Capitol Park Šabac (9,850 m2 GLA) and Vivo
Shopping Park in Jagodina (10,000 m2 GLA). Other, large
projects announced for construction commencement are
Višnjička Plaza Shopping center (40,000 m2 GLA) and Delta
Planet (68,000 m2 GLA), both without scheduled delivery dates.
Demand
Despite the economic uncertainties, demand from international
retailers remained quite stable. The main obstacle they are facing
is the lack of modern space which would satisfy their
requirements. Since prime shopping centers have a vacancy rate
of close to zero, new brands are interested in signing for
premises in expanding retail parks outside the capital. In 2013,
the highly anticipated H&M opened its first store in Delta City.
Desigual opened its first store in Ušće shopping center and the
first mono brand Vans store was opened in Knez Mihajlova
Street.
Total Annual Spend in € per Capita in Belgrade
Godišnja potrošnja po stanovniku u Beogradu
Source/Izvor: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
Demand for retail units on the high street has decreased since
retailers became more interested in space within modern
shopping developments. Yet, due to the lack of modern shopping
centres, the vacancy rate remains close to zero.
Rents and Yields
Prime rents recorded a slight decrease during Q4. Prime
shopping centre rents for a 100 to 200 m2 retail unit currently
stands at €60 m2/month, representing a drop from the previous
quarter, while rent for such a unit on Knez Mihajlova Street
remained at €80 m2/month. Average rents in prime shopping
centres in Belgrade range between €27 and €29 m2/month.
Prime shopping centre yields remained stable at 9.00%.
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On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q4 2013 7
Maloprodajni prostori
Ponuda
Tokom poslednjih deset godina, maloprodajno tržište Beograda je
dostiglo stepen modernizacije izgradnjom tržnih centara,
maloprodajnih parkova i big box koncepta. Tokom 2013. godine,
na postojećem maloprodajnom tržištu u Beogradu je izgradjen
tržni centar Stadion na Voždovcu 30,000m2. Trenutna ponuda
prvoklasnih tržnih centara u Beogradu je 128,000m2, odnosno
78m2 na 1,000 stanovnika, dok ukupna ponuda obuhvala
201,000m2 maloprodajnog prostora u tržnim centrima.
Drugi popularni maloprodajni koncept koji je sve više
rasprostranjen zbog manjka ponude modernih tržnih centara je
Maloprodajni park. U novembru 2013. godine je izgradjena treća
faza BIG CEE maloprodajnog parka u Novom Sadu koja obuhvata
tržni centar sa prodajnom površinom od 16,000m2 , dok ceo park
raspolaže sa 34,000m2 prodajnog prostora.
Prime Shopping Center Yields
Stopa prinosa prvoklasnih tržnih centara
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Trenutno je u izgradnji IBC Maloprodajni park u Zemunu,Beograd
(15,000m2), čije je otvaranje predvidjeno za drugi kvartal 2014.
godine. Izvan glavnog grada, još dva maloprodajna parka su u
fazi izgradnje, odnosno Capitol Park Šabac (9,850m2) i Vivo
Shopping Park Jagodina (10,000m2), čiji je završetak predvidjen
za 2014. godinu. Drugi veliki projekti, čiji je početak izgradnje
najavljen su tržni centri Višnjička Plaza (40,000m2) i Delta Planet
(68,000m2), bez definisanog datuma završetka.
Potražnja
Uprkos ekonomskim neizvesnostima, tražnja od strane
internacionalnih brendova je prilično stabilna. Glavna prepreka sa
kojom se susreću je nedostatak modernog prostora koji
zadovoljava njihove potrebe. S obzirom da je stopa nepopunjenog
prostora blizu nule, novi brendovi su zainteresovani za zakup
prostora u maloprodajnim parkovima izvan glavnog grada. Tokom
2013. godine dugo očekivani brend H&M je otvorio svoju prvu
prodavnicu u tržnom centru Delta city. Desigual je takodje otvorio
prvu prodavnicu u tržnom centru Ušće, i prva Vans mono
prodavnica je otvorena u Knez Mihajlovoj ulici.
Prime rents €/m2/month
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014
Tražnja za maloprodajnim jedinicama u centralnim ulicama je
opala od izgradnje modernih tržnih centara. Medjutim zbog
nedostatka tržnih centara, stopa nepopunjenosto maloprodajnog
prostora u istim je blizu nule.
Visine zakupa i stope prinosa
Tokom četvrtog kvartala 2013. godine je doslo do blagog pada
visine zakupa. Cena zakupa za maloprodajne jedinice površine
100-200m2 u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima je €60/m2/mesečno,
beležeći mali pad u odnosu na prethodni kvartal. Zakup istih
maloprodajnih jedinica u Knez Mihajlovoj ulici je
€80/m2/mesečno. Prosečna cena zakupa u modernim tržnim
centrima u Beogradu je u rasponu od €27 do €29. Stopa prinosa
za prvoklasne tržne centre je ostala na nivou od 9,00%.
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High Street Shopping Centers
8 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013
Market Practice
Leasing Market Practice
Lease length
• Average lease length is 5 years, 3 – 5 years are common in
the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts
• In a few cases longer leases can be agreed
• 3 year break options are becoming more common
Payment Terms
• Rents are quoted in € and paid monthly in advance in either €
or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the
payment
Rental Deposit
• It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee
equal to 3 months rent for all types of premises (office, retail
and industrial)
• Indexation is annually in line with European CPI
Other Charges
• Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct consumption
are paid separately)(offices and industrial)
• Service charges and marketing costs (retail)
Insurance
• The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by
service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own
premises, contents and civil liabilities
Incentives
• Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period, fit-
out contributions and free of charge additional parking space
Tržišna praksa zakupa prostora
Dužina zakupa
• Prosečna dužina zakupa je 5 godina - uglavnom se prostori u
centru grada zakupljuju na 3 – 5 godina, a na periferiji na 5
(retko 7 godina)
• U malom broju slučajeva se vrši zakup prostora na duži period
• Sve su češće mogućnosti raskida ugovora nakon 3 godine
Uslovi plaćanja
• Cene zakupa se navode u € a plaćaju se mesečno unapred ili u
€ ili u RSD prema valutnom kursu na dan plaćanja
Depozit
• Praksa je da se depozit plaća u kešu ili bankarskom garancijom
u iznosu od tri mesečne rente za sve vrste prostora
(kancelarijski, maloprodajni i industrijski)
• Indeksacija se vrši godišnje i usklađena je sa evropskim rastom
potrošačkih cena
Ostali troškovi
• Troškovi usluga i potrošnje električne energije (troškovi
održavanja i direktne potrošnje plaćaju se posebno)
(kancelarijski i industrijski prostori)
• Troškovi usluga i marketinga (maloprodajni prostori)
Osiguranje
• Vlasnik prostora pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade (naplaćuje
se od naknade za troškove usluga). Zakupac plaća osiguranje
za sopstvene prostorije, pokretnu imovinu i civilna lica
Podsticaji
• Vlasnici prostora prilikom izdavanja mogu davati i podsticaje u
vidu izdavanja prostora na period od 3 meseca bez naknade,
uređenja prostora o sopstvenom trošku ili dodatna parking
mesta gratis
Jones Lang LaSalle offices
Belgrade Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 10 L, 11070 Novi Beograd Serbia + 381 11 7850 600 Contacts Andrew Peirson Managing Director Jones Lang LaSalle Serbia +381 11 785 0579 andrew.peirson@eu.jll.com www.joneslanglasalle.com
Jana Golubović
Junior Research Analyst
Jones Lang LaSalle
Serbia
+381 11 785 0589 jana.golubovic@eu.jll.com www.joneslanglasalle.com
Belgrade City Report - Q4 2013
OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised
surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends.
www.joneslanglasalle.com
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