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transcript
6/5/2012 Biodiversity Slides 1
Biodiversity Conservation: Outline
Introduction: Biodiversity values and conservation strategies
Resource Allocation Principle for Protecting Biodiversity:
Noah’s Ark
Pharmaceutical Values for Biodiversity Conservation
Setting Aside Land to Protect Biodiversity
Restricting Land Uses to Protect Biodiversity, ESA.
Debt-for-Nature Swaps
6/5/2012 Biodiversity Slides 2
Biodiversity Conservation: Outline
Introduction: Biodiversity values and conservation strategies
Resource Allocation Principle for Protecting Biodiversity:
Noah’s Ark
Pharmaceutical Values for Biodiversity Conservation
Setting Aside Land to Protect Biodiversity
Restricting Land Uses to Protect Biodiversity, ESA.
Debt-for-Nature Swaps
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Model 1: Resource allocation problem (Noah’s Ark)
• Several projects are proposed to conserve biodiversity.•
We can estimate all relevant parameters for each project.
• We have a limited budget.
• Which projects should be chosen?
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Notation:
i = a specific project designed to protect a target species.
Bi = Biodiversity value of species protected by project i.
Ui = Use value of species protected by project i, if preserved.
Ci = Cost of project i.
Pi(0) and Pi(1) indicate the probability that the species will survive without (0) and with (1) project i.
Pi = Pi(1) - Pi(0): Change in probability of survival caused by project i.
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Project i’s payoff = (Bi + Ui )Pi.
Allocation rule (Noah’s Ark Principle):
Rank projects in decreasing order of
Ri = {(Bi + Ui )Pi}/Ci .
Undertake projects for which Ri>1, in this order, until funds are exhausted.
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Model 2: How to value the pharmaceuticals that biodiversity may yield?
Large fraction of existing pharmaceuticals were derived from natural substances.
• Quinine from chinchona tree (malaria)
• Taxol from Pacific yew tree (cancer)
• Vincristine from rosy periwinkle (lukemia)
Total gain from protecting all of this genetic information? Potentially huge.
More relevant question for policy: What is the gain from protecting a marginal species, or a marginal acre of habitat?
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Estimating the value of biodiversity for pharmaceutical uses:
Sample problem:
Researchers are looking for a cure to a specific form of cancer.
P = probability that a test of a random species is a success.
R = value of a success, if discovered.
C = cost of a test.
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Expected payoff from testing a single species for this cure:
V(1) = (PR - C)
Expected payoff from testing two species for this cure:
V(2) = (PR - C) +(PR – C)(1 – P).
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Expected payoff from testing N species for this cure:
V(N) = (PR - C) + (PR – C)(1 – P) + (PR - C)(1 - P)2
+ (PR - C)(1 - P)3 + . . . . .
. . + (PR - C) (1 - P)N-1.
Marginal payoff from having the Nth species available to test:
MV(N) = (PR - C) (1 - P)N-1.
Note: (PR - C) depends positively on P, (1-P)N-1 depends negatively on P.
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C/R 1.0
MV(N)
PP*
Determining ‘most advantageous’ P, P*.
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Estimating MV(N) (from SSR, 1996):
R = $450 million for a successful drug.
C = $3,600 per test.
N = 250,000 flowering plants.
P* = .0000012
Bottom line: Maximum pharmaceutical value for preserving a hectare of western Ecuador: $20.63.
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Policy for protecting biodiversity: Creating protected areas
Protected Area“Area of land and/or sea especially dedicated to the
protection and maintenance of biological diversity,
and of natural and associated cultural resources, and
managed through legal or other effective means.”
Source: UNEP and World Commission on Protected Areas (IUCN),
World Database of Protected Areas.
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Protected Area“ . . . . . . . dedicated to the protection and maintenance of
biological diversity, and of natural and associated cultural
resources. . . . . . and managed through legal or other effective
means.”
Source: UNEP and World Commission on Protected Areas (IUCN), World
Database of Protected Areas.
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Social Determinants of PA Performance
Competing Uses for Land and Resources (determinants)
• Resource extraction (density and value of timber, game, minerals, forage for animals; proximity to roads, rivers)
• Subsistence agriculture (poverty, income levels, population density; soil quality, rainfall, slope; proximity to roads, rivers)
• Permanent agriculture (soil quality, rainfall, slope; access to markets, e.g., proximity to roads, rivers, population centers)
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Social Determinants of PA Performance (cont.)
Cost of Protection
• Cost of protection inputs (labor, capital)
• Remoteness
PA Performance and Host Country Governance
• Presence or absence of corruption among managers/enforcers
• Adequacy of host government enabling policy
• Ability and incentive to commit to long-term conservation goals.
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Corruption and Illegal LoggingIllegal logging
• Harvesting in protected areas
• Harvesting protected species
• Harvesting in excess of concessions
• False reporting of harvests
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Source: Tropical Forest Update, Vol. 12 (1) 2002, p. 4.
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Restricting Land Uses to Protect Biodiversity, ESA.(Discussion in Field, pp. 392-397)
Adopted without controversy in 1973.
ESA Process• FWS and NMFS rank species by endangerment risk
Threatened/endangered.• If listed, develop a ‘recovery plan’.
Complaints about ESA approach• ‘Habitat plan’ approach land use options.• “Shoot, shovel and shut up” response possible.
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Complaints, cont.
Effectiveness: • Of 1,664 plants and animals listed, < 700 have recovery plans.• Only 11 have been removed from list.• Few have showed improved population status.
Selection of Species: • ‘Charismatic megafauna’: bald eagles, wolves, whooping cranes, …. • Selection not related to scientific biodiversity values .• More like ‘zoo’ popularity.
Should policy protect ecosystems, rather than individual species?
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Debt-for-Nature Swaps, an emerging form of environmental transaction
Product transacted: protection of biodiversity, natural habitat.
Buyers: Conservation NGOs.CI, TNC, WWF;Developed country agencies, US, Sweden, Netherlands.
Sellers: Host country government agencies and NGOs:Costa Rican National Parks Foundation;Bolivian FONAMA (NGO);Ecuadoran Fundacion Natura.