Post on 23-Feb-2018
transcript
Bloomberg New Energy Finance SummitNew York
Michael Liebreich
Chairman of the Advisory Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
25 April 2017
1 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn
$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro
Global new clean energy investment
Forecast
Record
investment
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records, April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Coahuila Mexico
Enel Green Power
March 2016
2019
US$ 3.60 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Denmark
Vattenfall
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
3 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
187
0
187
5
188
0
188
5
189
0
189
5
190
0
190
5
191
0
191
5
192
0
192
5
193
0
193
5
194
0
194
5
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
Note: Includes NGL and processing gain, but excludes biofuels Source: IEA; CDIAC; BP; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%
30
32
34
36
5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
Global GDP growth (real)
GtCO2e
4 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Skinbase; M Liebreich
The 2016 election
5 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$205bn $207bn
$276bn
$317bn
$291bn
$269bn
$315bn
$349bn
$287bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending
for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20GW
88GW
160GW
Forecast
2016
Investment
down 17%
2016
Installations
up 9%
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installation
6 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Coahuila Mexico
Enel Green Power
March 2016
2019
US$ 3.60 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Denmark
Vattenfall
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
7 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records since April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
United Arab Emirates
Masdar/DEWA
May 2016
2018
US$ 2.99 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Denmark
Vattenfall
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
8 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records since April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Chile
Solarpack Corporation
August 2016
2019
US$ 2.91 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Denmark
Vattenfall
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
9 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records since April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Mexico
X-Elio
September 2016
2019
US$ 2.74 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Denmark
Vattenfall
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
10 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records since April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Mexico
FRV
September 2016
2019
US$ 2.69 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Denmark
Vattenfall
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
11 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Unsubsidised clean energy world records since April 2016
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Mexico
FRV
September 2016
2019
US$ 2.69 c/kWh
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Country:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Merchant Price:
Germany
DONG/EnBW
April 2017
2024
US$ 4.9 c/kWh
Note: The offshore wind merchant price is estimated based on project LCOE in real 2016 terms
12 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Renewables excluding large hydro
Fossil fuels
Large hydro
Nuclear
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP
Investment in power capacity, by technology
$ billion/year
13 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
1.5 0.5 0.97.7
3.4 5.1
15.4
37.8
49.6
95.7
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2007 09 11 13 15 17E
Issuance by category ($ billion)
ABS/MBS
Project
Corporations
Financials
Municipal
Governmentagencies
Sovereigns
Supranationals
123.0
Note: 1Q 2017 issuance was $30 billion. 2017 estimate is based on growth on previous years Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Terminal
Green bond issuance
1.5 0.5 0.97.7
3.4 5.1
15.4
37.8
49.6
95.7
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2007 09 11 13 15 17E
Issuance by geography ($ billion)
Supranational
APAC
AMER
EMEA
123.0
14 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: IEA; CDIAC; BP; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
30
32
34
36
5.5 5.7 3.1 5.4 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5
5.5%5.6%3.0%
-0.1%
5.4%4.2%3.5%3.4%3.5%3.4%3.1%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
0%
Global GDP growth (real)
GtCO2e
15 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
China new investment in clean energy($ billion)
16 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
China Electricity Council, National Energy Administration
China yoy% growth in power demand Thermal capacity factor and RE curtailment
China snapshotQ
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Average thermal capacity factor
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Average thermal capacity factor
Wind curtailment
Solar curtailment
Note: Thermal capacity factor includes all fossil fuel-fired thermal capacity. Wind and solar
curtailment figures are not national averages, but refer to select provinces which exhibited the
worst cases of curtailment nationally over the period
17 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Twitter
Price of renewable energy in India
The cost of solar power is
now cheaper than coal in
this country.
Piyush Goyal
Minister of State for Power, Coal, New &
Renewable Energy and Mines, India
18 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GW
Annual capacity additions
Rate needed to achieve Modi plan
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Annual capacity additions vs Modi plan India clean energy investment
India snapshot
Note: Modi plan annual additions rate assumes linear trajectory to 175GW 2022 target. Figures exclude large hydro
2.8 3.2
5.4
6.8
5.8
4.3
9.0
13.7
8.1
6.6
8.5
9.69.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$bn
19 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Europe new investment in clean energy($ billion)
20 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
21 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Emissions from coal-fired power, 2008-16
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008 2013
tCO2e/yr
Germany Poland UK Greece Czech Rep Bulgaria Spain Italy Romania Netherlands
tCO2e/yr
22 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
US new investment in clean energy($ billion)
23 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Note: Cumulative over 2000–16 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Annual Cumulative
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GW
US wind installations
2008-16
Up 262%
24 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GW
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GW
Note: Cumulative over 2000–16 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Annual Cumulative
US solar installations
2008-16
Up 4,645%
25 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: 2016 US residential and C&I PV build figures are estimated
US small-scale solar build by type
0.8 0.9 1.0 0.81.1
0.50.8
1.2
2.0
2.3
1.4
1.7
2.2
2.9
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
Commercial and industrial Residential
GW
Up 143%
26 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
01234567891011
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Solar Wind Biomass & Waste Fuel Cells Cumulative
Note: Incremental build left axis, columns; cumulative build right axis, red line
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US corporate procurement of clean energy
Incremental build
(GW)
Cumulative build
(GW)
Up 5,150%
cumulatively
27 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: EPA, Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: ACEEE, NAESCO, LBNL, CEE, IAEE, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US estimated investment in energy
efficiencyEnergy Star-certified floor space in US
non-residential buildings
US energy efficiency investment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Other
Publicbuildings
Commercial& Industrial
Residential
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Other
Mixed UseProperty
Warehouse andStorage
Lodging
Healthcare
Mercantile
Education
Offices
$ billion (nominal) Billions of square feet2008-15
Up 100%
2008-15
Up 220%
28 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Notes: Includes data for smart electricity meters, excludes automated meters. Smart
meters are defined as those capable of two-way communication over a fixed network.
US smart meter deployments (million units)
US electric smart meter deployment
3.65.9
12.2 12.6
10.0
5.24.1
6.7 5.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CumulativeAnnual Up 4,300%
cumulative
29 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: EIA
US monthly natural gas production (bcf)
US gas production and rig efficiency
New-well production per rig (‘000 cf/day)
2007–17
Up 388%
2007–17
Up 35%
30 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: EIA
US monthly oil production (mbbl)
US oil production and rig efficiency
New-well production per rig (bbl/day)
2007–17
Up 1,300%
2007–17
Up 83%
31 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Note: The fuel economy targets have been normalised to the CAFE testing procedure. US targets are for passenger cars only. Source: EPA, NHTSA, EU, ICCT
Fuel economy regulations for China, US and Europe, 2000-25 (litres/100km)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
L/100 km
US
EU
China
Achieved fuel consumption Future standard
EU: 4.1US: 4.2
China: 4.9
2000–14
Up 21%
32 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Henry Hub gas prices
Note: Real 2017 $US Source: Bloomberg
$/MMBTU
33 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US coal prices
Note: Central Appalachian benchmark price, real 2017 $US Source: Bloomberg
$/short ton
34 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Oil prices
Note: Front-month Brent crude contract, real 2017 $US Source: Bloomberg
$/bbl
35 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Wind
Utility-scale PV
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$/MWh
Note: Levelized, time-of-day adjusted contract price shown in real 2015 USD. 2016 PV PPA price based on preliminary data and subject to review.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy (LBNL), Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Average US renewable energyPPA prices
2008–16
PV down
83%
2008–16
Wind down
71%
36 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Bloomberg Terminal
Note: Indexed to 1990 levels. Values for 2016 energy consumption are projected,
accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available
through October 2016). GDP is real and chained (2009 dollars); annual growth rate for
GDP for 2016 is based on consensus of economic forecasts gathered on the Bloomberg
Terminal as of January 2017.
US GDP and primary energy
consumption
US energy productivity
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
199
0
1992
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
GDP (indexed)
Primary energy consumption (indexed)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
Energy productivity
US energy productivity
$ trillion of GDP/quadrillion BTU2008-16
Up 13%
37 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, EPA
US power sector emissions US total emissions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Power sector emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions and progress towards targets
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Total emissions including LULUCF
Obama 2020 target
2025 Paris goal
2008-16
Down 23%
~50%
towards
Paris goal
MtCO2e MtCO2e
38 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 150%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15
2008-16
Down 20%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Electricity & gas Gasoline
Share of US personal expenditure on energy
2008-16
Down 43%
39 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: EIA
Generation by source Change in generation 2007-16
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Displaced coal Energy efficiency Gas Renewables
Coal-776TWh/yr
Power demand-78TWh/yr
Gas+483TWh/yr
Renewables+256TWh/yr
US power sector fuel mix
TWh/yr TWh/yr
Coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Oil
40 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, US Department of Labour
Jobs Productivity
US coal jobs and productivity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1931 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 15
Thousand jobs
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1931 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 15
Tonnes per employee per year
41 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Komatsu
New generation of mining trucks
42 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
When we ramp up the [Carmichael]
mine, everything will be autonomous
from mine to port. In our eyes, this is
the mine of the future.”
Image: Adani Mining
Adani Mining Carmichael coal mineQueensland Australia
Jeyakumar “JJ” Janakaraju
Adani Mining CEO
43 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: White House; EPA
Making America Great Again?
44 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
2015 BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE
AN AGE OF PLENTY…
… ON STEROIDS
45 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
US administration views on climate change
“The concept of global warming was created
by and for the Chinese in order to make US
manufacturing non-competitive”
Donald Trump, US Presidential Candidate 2016
(now President)
“I would not agree that [human activity] is a
primary contributor to the global warming
that we see”Scott Pruitt
EPA Director
“[Climate change] is all one contrived phony
mess that is falling apart under its own
weight. Al Gore is a false prophet of a secular
carbon cult”
Rick Perry, US Presidential Candidate 2012
(now Secretary of Energy)
“Climate change could be happening and it
could be a part of human action, but its costs
in the near term certainly are not great”
Jeff Sessions, 2015
(now US Attorney General)
46 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Investing in
fossil-fuel energy
and transport
assets…
Source: Various; BNEF
I’m not a climate scientist but…
means we
emit more
greenhouse
gases…(NASA et al.)
which
accumulate in
the
atmosphere…(NOAA et al.)
driving human
climate
forcing…(EPA et al.)
thereby
pushing up
temperatures...(Berkeley et al.)
and causing
climate
impacts(IPCC et al.)
47 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
201620302045
Source: Coastal Risk Consulting © Mapbox, © OpenStreetMap Graphic: Jan Diehm/The Guardian
Climate-related flood riskMar a Lago Club, Miami, Florida
Note: Blue areas indicate risk of flooding.
48 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Gallup
US public view of climate change
61% 61%59%
61%
54%52%
57%55%
68%
33% 33%35% 35%
42% 43%39%
41%
29%
2001 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Human activity
Natural causes
Do you believe increases in the Earth’s temperature are due
more to the effects of pollution from human activities or natural
changes in the environment that are not due to human activities?
49 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: EKB TV
Kentucky Coal Museum’s solar roofHarlan County
50 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Images: various companies
Keeping America Great!
51 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0
5
10
15
20
25
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Millions
Rest of the world
Japan
China
USA
Europe
Note: Forecast uses Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’ scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel between 2015 and 2025).
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
BNEF global EV sales forecast by region EV penetration
by 2040
35-47% of new
cars
52 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Ofv.no
The Norwegian experience
75.5%64.3%
52.8% 48.7%40.9%
31.5%
20.1%
28.4%
35.2%
30.7%
29.7%
28.3%
2.8%4.5% 6.4%
6.9%
7.1%
11.2%
1.2%
5.2%13.3%
1.4%2.9% 5.5%
12.5% 17.1% 15.7%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Battery
Plug-in hybrid
Hybrid
Gasoline
Diesel
Split of annual car sales by type Vehicle choices
$75,117
Audi A7 Q
Price
(without tax):
Price
(with tax):
$75,117$82,363
29% of new
cars in Norway
have plugs
Tesla S 60D
$44,392
53 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
$1,000/kWh
$800/kWh
$642/kWh$599/kWh
$540/kWh
$350/kWh
$273/kWh
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Lithium-ion battery pack prices are down 73% since 2010
BNEF 2016 battery pack price survey results
54 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Lithium-ion battery pack prices will drop another 75% by 2030Lithium-ion battery price forecast
55 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Small vans
Runabouts
Hatchbacks
Sedans
Sports cars
SUVs/Trucks
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, Images various.
Notes: Not exhaustive.
(*) Range is estimate
BEV model availability, 2008-20
Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster
20082009
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
BMW mini e
Smith Edison
2010Ford Transit
M-B E-CellHyundai
BlueOn
Nissan Leaf
Kia Ray
2011
Ford Focus
Renault KangooM-B Vito
BYD e6
Renault Fluence
2012Renault Twizy
Smart
ForTwo
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
Tesla Model S
Toyota
RAV4
Honda Fit
CODA EV
2013Peugeot Partner
Exagon Furtive
M-B SLS eDrive
BMW i3
Chevy Spark
Mahindra e2o
VW
e-Up
2014
VW e-Golf
Nissan NV200
M-B B-Class
JAC iEV4
2015Kandi Panda Bollore
Bluesummer
Mullen 700e
ChangAn
Eado
2016
Chevy Bolt
Audi R8 E-tron
BYD T3
Mahindra eVerito
2017
Qianto Q50
Aston Martin
RapidE
Tesla Model 3
Hyundai Ioniq
2018
Land Rover
Defender
Honda Clarity
2019
Porsche E-sport
M-B EQ
Jaguar
I-Pace
Mitsubishi eX
2020
Tesla Roadster
GLM G4
VW e-Bulli
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand
Audi E-tron
Sportback
VW I.D.
VW I.D. CROZZ
NIO ES8*
Tesla Roadster*
ChangAn EM80
VW I.D. BUZZ
Renault DeZir
Trumpchi
GS4
SAIC E-Lavida
Tata
IRIS
VW I.D.*
Audi E-tron
Quattro
Tesla
Model Y*
BYD e5
Volvo 40.2*
Tesla
pickup*
Nissan Leaf 2*
Lucid Air
+ miles range per charge
Faraday
FF91
NIO EVELeEco LeSEE
Chehejia
SUV*
BMW i5
Seat Mii*
Tesla
Model XVW
Budd-e
NIO EP9
56 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Tesla; Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-27/tesla-model-3-ramp-up-aims-to-crush-bmw-and-mercedes; Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Library of
Congress WWII Companion
Tesla’s gamble
WWII plane production
57 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Car company market capitalisation
$ billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ford
GM
FCM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tesla
58 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
Disclosed timelines for autonomous vehicles from select companies, 2016 – 40
20
19
: In
tel +
De
lph
i +
M
ob
ileye
Le
ve
l 4
Au
di's
Le
ve
l 2
'Tra
ffic
Ja
m A
ssis
t'
2016 2017 2018 2020
Au
di's
Le
ve
l 3
'Tra
ffic
Ja
m P
ilot'
on
A8
2020+
Au
di's
Le
ve
l 3
+
BM
W's
Le
ve
l 2
on
'T
raff
ic J
am
Assis
tan
t'
2021: BMW's Level 4 in 'iNext'
Ford
'sL
eve
l 2
'Tra
ffic
Ja
m
Assis
t' a
nd
'F
ully
A
uto
ma
ted
Pa
rkin
g'
2021: Ford's Level 4
Ho
nd
a's
Le
ve
l 2
'S
en
sin
g'
Ho
nd
a's
Le
ve
l 3
'on
-ra
mp to
off
-ram
p'
2040: Honda's Level 4 by 2040 in all models
Kia
's L
eve
l 3
'Drive
W
ise
'
2030: Kia's Level 4 'Urban Autonomous Driving'
20
13
: M
erc
ed
es's
Le
ve
l2
'Dysto
nic
Plu
s'
Nis
sa
n's
Le
ve
l 4
'P
roP
ILO
T 3
.0'
Nis
sa
n's
Le
ve
l 2
'P
roP
ILO
T'
Nis
sa
n's
,L
eve
l 3
'P
roP
ILO
T 2
.0'
Me
rce
de
s's
Le
ve
l2
'D
ysto
nic
Pilo
t' o
n E
-C
lass
20
15
: T
esla
's L
eve
l 2
'A
uto
pilo
t'
Te
sla
's L
eve
l 4
'A
uto
pilo
t'
Vo
lvo
's L
eve
l 2
'Pilo
t A
ssis
t' o
n S
90
Vo
lvo
's L
eve
l 4
Drive
-M
e p
rogra
m
GM
's L
eve
l 2
'Su
pe
r C
ruis
e'
Go
ogle
's L
eve
l 4
2030: Uber's Level 4fleet in 2030
2025: VW's Level 4 'ID Pilot' i
2016-
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
Legend
2022: Lyft Level 4 ride hailing cars
59 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: California DMV; Recode; NHTSA; FHWA; BNEF
5000 x improvement in safety performance required
5,128
638
197
146
105
57
54
17
3
2
1
Google Waymo
BMW
Ford
Nissan
Uber (2017)
VW (2015)
GM Cruise
Delphi
Tesla
Mercedes
Bosch
AVs: distance between
human interventions (miles)
Distance between
fatalities (million miles)
15,342
9,178
6,667
137
4.7
Commercialaviation
Buses
Mainline trains
Cars & light trucks
Motorcycles
Humans: distance between
crashes (miles)
525,000US Average
x ~ 100*
x ~ 50
* Assumes one in 10 human interventions might otherwise have resulted in an accident
60 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Limousine Service Zurich
Rich people having empty cars drive round the block instead of parking
61 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Google Maps
When 20,789 people all want to get toMadison Square Gardens at the same time
62 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Obianuju Okafor
Algorithms which are individually smart and collectively dumb
63 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Image: Bloomberg
Secretary Perry’s 60-day review
To what extent are regulatory
burdens, subsidies and tax policies
responsible for forcing the premature
retirement of baseload power plants
Rick Perry
Secretary of Energy
64 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Note: Excludes large hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Renewable energy excl. large hydro, proportion of power generation, 2006-16
Lowest
Mid
Highest
No data
13%
30%
Spain
3%12%
Australia
6%
18%
Brazil
5% 6%
Canada
6%10%
China
9%
29%
Germany2%
25%
UK
4% 6%
India12%
25%
Italy
7%12%
Japan
3%9%
US
1% 3%
South Africa
65 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Renewable energy excl. large hydro, proportion of power generation, 2006-16
38%54%
Maine17%
100%Vermont
14%30%
California
5%
39%
Iowa
20%
47%
Idaho
2%
30%
South Dakota
2%
30%
Kansas
3%
26%
Oklahoma
7%23%
Minnesota
6% 8%
New York
2%13%
Texas0%
20%
50%+
Key: RE penetration
66 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various
Variable renewables high penetration
9 July 2015
Denmark
140% wind
May 2016
Germany
67% wind & solar
25 December 2016
Scotland
153% wind
23 March 2017
CAISO
46% wind & solar
9 April 2017
UK 56%
wind & solar
13 February 2017
SPP
52% wind
26 December 2014
South Australia
61% wind & solarNovember 2015
Spain
70% windNovember 2017
ERCOT
45% wind
67 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201715%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US average Texas Florida
Pennsylvania California Ohio
US thermal capacity factors
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIANote: Includes coal and gas capacity. 2017 is based on YTD generation and operational capacities reported in January.
Excludes backup capacity.
68 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
March of capacity markets Weaknesses of capacity markets
Regions recently or currently implementing
capacity-based mechanisms include:
Capacity markets
Over-procurement
• Inaccurate predictions of
supply and demand
• Political risk aversion
Innovation suppressed by:
• Artificially-shaped demand
• Bias towards incumbents
• Picking of winners
69 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Evolving structure of power supply
Past – summer
Past – winter
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Current – summer
Current – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR
Added storage, interconnections
Reduced demand (exc. EVs)
Lots more variable renewables
Future – summer
Future – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
70 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Past – summer
Past – winter
Current – summer
Current – winter
1. Whatever we come up with must work
winter and summer (doh!)
Evolving structure of power supply
Future – summer
Future – winter
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
5. Need lots of interconnection capacity
(else duck curves, curtailment)
2. Practically impossible to get rid of all
fossil fuel use
3. Even huge storage gets overwhelmed
by wind variability
4. Massive volatility, enormous ramp
rates
6. And if you think that’s complicated, it
has to work at every node too!
71 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Evolving structure of power supply
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Flexible generation – summer
Flexible generation – winter
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Low carbon generation – summer
Low carbon generation – winter
Future – summer
Future – winter
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
GW
Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR
72 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Flexible generation – summer
Flexible generation – winter
Evolving structure of power supply
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Low carbon generation – summer
Low carbon generation – winter
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1. Very cheap wind & solar
(“base cost renewables”)
3. Zero mid-day power
price every day in sunny
countries and windy days
2. Plus must-run CHP and
nuclear (and CCS?)
4. Dependent on flexible
power to meet non-
sunny, non-windy times
Future – summer
Future – winter
73 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Evolving structure of power supply
Flexible generation – summer
Flexible generation – winter
Low carbon generation – summer
Low carbon generation – winter
Future – summer
Future – winter
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1. Demand response is likely
to be the cheapest
3. Interconnections
2. Storage
4. Fossil peakers
5. In case that’s not enough,
there will be curtailment
74 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Option A: “Central Planning”
Evolving structure of power supply
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Centrally designed capacity
market, with regulated returns
Centrally provisioned
interconnections, with regulated
returns
Curtailment
75 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Evolving structure of power supply
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Option B: “Demand-Led” 1. Competitive, technology-neutral, liquid
markets across location and time
4. Flexibility costs charged to those who
cause them
2. Reliability standards at the retail level
5. Certificates of origin for imported power
6. Cost of stability-related ancillary
services borne by TSOs and DSOs
-50-40-30-20-100102030
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Storage/DR Peaking fossil Exports/Curtailment
3. Carbon regulation via carbon price,
carbon intensity or retirement schedule
76 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
TOWARDS
DEMAND-LED
FLEXIBILITY
MARKETS
Coverage.
Renewable Energy
Power & Utilities
Gas
Carbon Markets & Climate
Negotiations
Energy Smart Technologies
Storage
Electric Vehicles
Mobility and Autonomous Driving
Frontier Power
Emerging Technologies
Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy
professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread
across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight,
enabling decision-makers to navigate change in an evolving energy
economy.
BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms,
as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal.
sales.bnef@bloomberg.net
about.bnef.com
@BloombergNEF
Michael Liebreich
@mliebreich
Thanks!