Post on 10-Oct-2020
transcript
1
BREXIT Implications for Africa
AfricanRegionalConsulta3ononMul3lateral,RegionalandEmergingTradeIssues
Working Session on the Implications of “BREXIT” for African Trade and Integration
Mauritius - 25 May 2017
Paul R. Baker
Key Messages
• Exposure varies by region and sectors: Southern and Eastern are most
exposed
• UK-EU outcome uncertain; Focus of Africa needs to be initially on
transition phase
• MT risks: Preference erosion and impact on Sterling
• LT risks: Market confidence & demand, as well as risks of contagion
• Coherence and cohesive approach is preferable; improved
intelligence and early preparation necessary; securing built-in
agenda for future UK FTAs
2
Brexit Milestone Events
Key Milestones:
1. June 23, 2016: UK citizens vote to leave the EU.
2. March 29, 2017: UK officially notifies Brexit to the European Council - negotiations
on Brexit begin.
3. March 29, 2019: UK expected to leave the EU (unless negotiations are extended)
Brexit opens “Pandora’s Box”: first time a Member State has ever decided to
exit the EU. Due to the strong ties, not only between the UK with the EU, but
also with the rest of the World, the outcome of negotiations will have a
significant impact on the World’s economy.
Process: Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union
Steps Towards Brexit
TEU Article 50: Key elements
1. Step 1 - Initial requirement: Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
This requirement was fulfilled through the “European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017”, adopted by the UK Parliament on March 16, 2017.
1. Step 2 – Notification: A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.
This requirement was fulfilled on March 29, 2017.
1. Step 3 – Negotiation: In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
2. Step 4 – The Effects: The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
Source: BBC
3
Legal Implications of Brexit
Immediate consequences:
1. Suspension of directly applicable EU Law and its replacement: Trade
Defences, Trade Policy and agreements, state-aid regulation…
2. Ending of rights of access;
3. Differential treatment;
4. Need of new national policies and institutions; and
5. Interpretation and application of laws based on EU Law Principles.
In the case of those EU rules transposed into British legislation, the UK will
have to decide whether they remain applicable, need to be modified, or
should be abolished. Overall, it has been estimated that 20,833 EU laws and
regulations would have to be scrutinized by the negotiators.
Challenges
Uncertainty. One of the main problems of Brexit is the uncertainty surrounding it. Art.
50 TEU triggers the negotiations surrounding the relationship between the EU and the
UK, and this arrangement – or the lack of it - will have an implication on third
countries. Unlikely successful conclusion of talks, compounded by other macro risks.
Short period. Both parties disagree on how to carry out the negotiations. On the one
hand, the UK wants to negotiate both Brexit and the future trade agreement
simultaneously. On the other hand, the EU wants to agree first on the proper Brexit
agreement, and then start negotiations on the trade agreement. Therefore, the two
year period is likely to be exhausted before a trade agreement is achieved. In this
scenario, and without any kind of transitional agreement, trade between the EU and
the UK would be subject to the WTO rules (see below).
Market access. Currently, Mauritius enjoys preferential market access to the EU (28)
under the iEPA. What will be implications of the different types of agreements? Will
Mauritius retain its acquired market access rights to the UK?
4
UK’s Relevance to West & Central Africa
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
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Min
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pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Central Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
Central Africa’s trade with the World
Sources and NotesCentral Africa: Angola, Central Africa Republic, Chad, Congo, Congo DRC , Equatorial guinea, Gabon, Sao tome and PrincipeWelfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE
© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
2015
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
Central Africa share in world exports
7.63.1
1.50.7
0.20.10.10.10.00.0
Mineral productsWood & products
Base metalsPrecious stones
Art worksVegetable products
Chemicals & allied…Animal/vegetable fats
Prepared foodstuffsAnimals & products
RCA,
201
6
1,645
157
81
49
32
22
7
1
0
0
Travel
Transport
Government
ICT
Other
Personal
Financial
Construction
Insurance
Royalties
0.002% (2006)
0.006% (2011)
0.003% (2016)
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
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d &
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rodu
cts
Chem
ical,
rubb
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pla
stics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Central Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
Central Africa’s trade with the World
Sources and NotesCentral Africa: Angola, Central Africa Republic, Chad, Congo, Congo DRC , Equatorial guinea, Gabon, Sao tome and PrincipeWelfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE
© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
2015
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
Central Africa share in world exports
7.63.1
1.50.7
0.20.10.10.10.00.0
Mineral productsWood & products
Base metalsPrecious stones
Art worksVegetable products
Chemicals & allied…Animal/vegetable fats
Prepared foodstuffsAnimals & products
RCA,
201
6
1,645
157
81
49
32
22
7
1
0
0
Travel
Transport
Government
ICT
Other
Personal
Financial
Construction
Insurance
Royalties
0.002% (2006)
0.006% (2011)
0.003% (2016)
UKFDIinCentralAfrica(US$millions)
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
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Mac
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men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
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Mac
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Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
erea
lsO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
lsSu
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Vege
tabl
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Fish
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Beef
and
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Food
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Petr
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Mot
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ood
& p
aper
pro
duct
sCh
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al, r
ubbe
r & p
last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
erea
lsO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
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lsSu
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tabl
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Food
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Mot
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pro
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last
ics
Mac
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ry a
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quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
West Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
West Africa’s trade with the World
Sources and NotesWest Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania,
Niger, Nigeria, Saint Helena, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo
Welfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.
Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE
© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
2015
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
West Africa share in world exports
3,342
2,243
1,030
1,004
939
199
158
92
47
18
Travel
Transport
ICT
Other
Government
Construction
Financial
Insurance
Royalties
Maintenance
0.007% (2006)
0.01% (2011)
0.004% (2016)
5.0
4.9
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.4
Mineral products
Prepared foodstuffs
Precious stones
Wood & products
Vegetable products
Animal/vegetable fats
Animals & products
Raw hides, skins & furs
Plastics/Rubbers
Textiles
RCA
, 201
6
UKFDIinWestAfrica(US$millions)
West Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
West Africa’s trade with the World
Sources and NotesWest Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania,
Niger, Nigeria, Saint Helena, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo
Welfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.
Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE
© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
2015
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
West Africa share in world exports
3,342
2,243
1,030
1,004
939
199
158
92
47
18
Travel
Transport
ICT
Other
Government
Construction
Financial
Insurance
Royalties
Maintenance
0.007% (2006)
0.01% (2011)
0.004% (2016)
5.0
4.9
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.4
Mineral products
Prepared foodstuffs
Precious stones
Wood & products
Vegetable products
Animal/vegetable fats
Animals & products
Raw hides, skins & furs
Plastics/Rubbers
Textiles
RCA
, 201
6
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
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Mac
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t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
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lsO
ilsee
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Reso
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Pork
and
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Mot
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Mac
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t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
UK’s Relevance to Eastern & Southern Africa
UKFDIinSouthernAfrica(US$millions)
UKFDIinEastAfrica(US$millions)
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
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real
sO
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Vege
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Reso
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Pork
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Dairy
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Text
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Wea
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trol
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, coa
l pro
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sM
otor
veh
icle
& tr
ans e
quip
Woo
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pap
er p
rodu
cts
Chem
ical,
rubb
er &
pla
stics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
Rice
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Mot
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Mac
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Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
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lsO
ilsee
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tabl
e oi
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Vege
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Beef
and
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airy
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nec
Beve
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Text
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Petr
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Mot
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Chem
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nec
Man
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s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
East Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
East Africa’s trade with the World
Sources and NotesEast Africa: Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles,
Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, ZimbabweWelfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
2015
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
East Africa share in world exports
7.74.2
3.12.7
2.51.51.5
1.00.90.8
Vegetable productsPrepared foodstuffs
Base metalsAnimals & products
Precious stonesTextiles
Raw hides, skins & furs…Wood & productsMineral products
Animal/vegetable fats
RCA,
201
6
8,674
7,243
2,188
1,733
1,095
339
307
267
85
82
Travel
Transport
Other
Government
ICT
Financial
Insurance
Construction
Personal
Royalties
0.003% (2006)
0.003% (2011)
0.002% (2016)
East Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
East Africa’s trade with the World
Sources and NotesEast Africa: Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles,
Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, ZimbabweWelfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
2015
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
East Africa share in world exports
7.74.2
3.12.7
2.51.51.5
1.00.90.8
Vegetable productsPrepared foodstuffs
Base metalsAnimals & products
Precious stonesTextiles
Raw hides, skins & furs…Wood & productsMineral products
Animal/vegetable fats
RCA,
201
6
8,674
7,243
2,188
1,733
1,095
339
307
267
85
82
Travel
Transport
Other
Government
ICT
Financial
Insurance
Construction
Personal
Royalties
0.003% (2006)
0.003% (2011)
0.002% (2016)
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
Rice
Oth
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lsO
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Vege
tabl
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Chem
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, rub
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and
equ
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ecM
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al p
rodu
cts n
ecM
anuf
actu
res
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
Southern Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
Southern Africa’s trade with the World
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
5.1 1.8 1.8
1.7 1.4
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.8 0.7
Precious stonesBase metals
Vegetable prod.Mineral prod.
FoodstuffsPulp and paperboards
TransportationAnimals & products
Wood & productsChemicals
RCA,
201
6
10,755 3,262
2,784 880 644 524
257 145 128 89
TravelTransport
OtherFinancial
ICTGovernment
InsurancePersonalRoyalties
Maintenance
Sources and NotesSouthern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and SwazilandWelfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE
© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
Southern Africa share in world exports
2015
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
0.52% (2006)
0.68% (2011)
0.53% (2016)
Southern Africa’s main exporters, main markets and products
Southern Africa’s trade with the World
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Trade in Value with World, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
5.1 1.8 1.8
1.7 1.4
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.8 0.7
Precious stonesBase metals
Vegetable prod.Mineral prod.
FoodstuffsPulp and paperboards
TransportationAnimals & products
Wood & productsChemicals
RCA,
201
6
10,755 3,262
2,784 880 644 524
257 145 128 89
TravelTransport
OtherFinancial
ICTGovernment
InsurancePersonalRoyalties
Maintenance
Sources and NotesSouthern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and SwazilandWelfare impact: MFN: UK applies EU MFN tariffs with all partners; FTA: UK liberalises with all countries; Demand: Major drop in confidence and
consumer demand in UK and EU.Sources: International Economics calculations based on World Bank: WITS, WDI; ITC: Trademap, MacMap; BIS: Quarterly Banking Statistics; fDi
Markets; Purdue University: GTAP; CEPII/ITC MAcMap TASTE
© International Economics Ltd (2017)
Exports of services, USD millions, 2014
www.tradeeconomics.com
Southern Africa share in world exports
2015
Note: Top 20 partners in 2016; Bubble size represents share in world imports of partner countries
0.52% (2006)
0.68% (2011)
0.53% (2016)
5
General Exposure to Contagion
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
Rice
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Re
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Beef
and
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Food
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Text
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Wea
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Leat
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Elec
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Petr
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Mot
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& p
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sCh
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last
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Mac
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Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
Rice
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
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40
50
60
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UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
Rice
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfareUS
D m
illio
ns
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
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0
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30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
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ds Vege
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e oi
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es, f
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ther
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psLi
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Fish
ing
Fore
stry
Re
sour
ces
Beef
and
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nd p
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rodu
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Food
pro
duct
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appa
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tron
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Petr
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m, c
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Mot
or v
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le &
tran
s equ
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ood
& p
aper
pro
duct
sCh
emic
al, r
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r & p
last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
erea
lsO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
lsSu
gar
Vege
tabl
es, f
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nut
sPl
ant f
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ther
cro
psLi
vest
ock
Fish
ing
Fore
stry
Re
sour
ces
Beef
and
vea
lPo
rk a
nd p
oultr
yDa
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rodu
cts
Food
pro
duct
s nec
Beve
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Text
iles
Wea
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appa
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Leat
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Elec
tron
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Petr
oleu
m, c
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rodu
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Mot
or v
ehic
le &
tran
s equ
ipW
ood
& p
aper
pro
duct
sCh
emic
al, r
ubbe
r & p
last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
Source:Interna3onalEconomicsLtdCalcula3ons
General Exposure to BREXIT
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
Rice
Oth
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ing
Fore
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ces
Beef
and
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Food
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duct
s nec
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Text
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Wea
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Petr
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aper
pro
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sCh
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al, r
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last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
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quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
Rice
Oth
er ce
real
sO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
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es, f
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Reso
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Pork
and
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Text
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Chem
ical,
rubb
er &
pla
stics
Mac
hine
ry a
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quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
Rice
Oth
er ce
real
sO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
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Vege
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es, f
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Reso
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Pork
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duct
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cts n
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Text
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Elec
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quip
Woo
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pap
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rodu
cts
Chem
ical,
rubb
er &
pla
stics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
Rice
Oth
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Vege
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Fore
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ces
Beef
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lPo
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cts
Food
pro
duct
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Text
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Petr
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m, c
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Mot
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& p
aper
pro
duct
sCh
emic
al, r
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r & p
last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
erea
lsO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
lsSu
gar
Vege
tabl
es, f
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Fish
ing
Fore
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Re
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ces
Beef
and
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rodu
cts
Food
pro
duct
s nec
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rage
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Text
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Wea
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Elec
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Petr
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m, c
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Mot
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& p
aper
pro
duct
sCh
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al, r
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r & p
last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
erea
lsO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
lsSu
gar
Vege
tabl
es, f
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nut
sPl
ant f
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ther
cro
psLi
vest
ock
Fish
ing
Fore
stry
Re
sour
ces
Beef
and
vea
lPo
rk a
nd p
oultr
yDa
iry p
rodu
cts
Food
pro
duct
s nec
Beve
rage
s &
toba
cco
Text
iles
Wea
ring
appa
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Leat
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Elec
tron
ics
Petr
oleu
m, c
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Mot
or v
ehic
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tran
s equ
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ood
& p
aper
pro
duct
sCh
emic
al, r
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r & p
last
ics
Mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
er ce
real
sO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
lsSu
gar
Vege
tabl
es, f
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ther
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Reso
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Pork
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duct
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Text
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Chem
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Mac
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ry a
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men
t nec
Min
eral
pro
duct
s nec
Man
ufac
ture
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
Rice
Oth
er c
erea
lsO
ilsee
ds Vege
tabl
e oi
lsSu
gar
Vege
tabl
es, f
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sPl
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ther
cro
psLi
vest
ock
Fish
ing
Fore
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Re
sour
ces
Beef
and
vea
lPo
rk a
nd p
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yDa
iry p
rodu
cts
Food
pro
duct
s nec
Beve
rage
s &
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
Source:Interna3onalEconomicsLtdCalcula3ons
East Africa-UK
BREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with East Africa
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30
40
50
60
70
UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from East Africa: 70%
UK Tariffs and Impact on East Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -7.6
Reserves in months of imports 3.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)4.0
Trade (% of GDP)36.9
Exports to UK (% of total)3.1
FDI flows from UK (% of total)12.3
Sterling/Dollar Change (%)-13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)1.4
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
UK trade with East Africa, USD millions ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from East Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %
Share of East Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
09 Coffee & tea 259 0.1 2.5 15.0 16 Prep. of meat & fish 145 -7.3 -2.0 3.3 07 Vegetables & roots 144 -4.3 2.0 3.4 61 Knitted clothing accessories 123 -12.6 1.0 1.0 06 Cut flowers, etc. 86 -3.8 1.2 5.4
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
1,266
2,236
273
1,962
271
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to East Africa, USD millions
Southern Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Southern Africa
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
UK trade with Southern Africa, USD millions
Export
Import
Balance
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UK MFN Tariffs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Southern Africa: 93%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Southern Africa’s welfare
HS DescriptionUK imports from Southern Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Southern
Africa in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
71 Precious stones, etc. 7,958 -8.8 -4.1 11.2 08 Edible fruit and nuts 590 3.5 4.1 9.4 87 Vehicles 478 12.4 5.8 0.6 84 Machinery 137 -18.3 0.1 0.2 22 Beverages 135 -5.2 -1.8 1.7
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -2.8
Reserves in months of imports 7.1
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)1.4
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)7.3
FDI flows from UK (% of total)5.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)2.2
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to Southern Africa, USD millions
West Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with West Africa
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UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from West Africa: 90%
UK Tariffs and Impact on West Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -1.7
Reserves in months of imports 5.3
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)3.1
Trade (% of GDP)31.4
Exports to UK (% of total)3.0
FDI flows from UK (% of total)8.8
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.9
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
UK trade with West Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from West Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of West Africa in
UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 1,112 -34.6 -19.8 2.8 18 Cocoa 312 1.1 2.8 12.4 08 Fruit & nuts 144 8.3 4.1 2.3 09 Coffee & tea 123 244.4 2.5 7.1 16 Prep. of meat & fish 97 5.1 -2.0 2.2
-1000-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
238
989
471
1,824
56
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK FDI flow to West Africa, USD millions
Central Africa-UKBREXIT DASHBOARD
Macroeconomic Exposure to BREXIT
UK trade and investment with Central Africa
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UK MFN Tariffs
Share of products in table in total imports of UK from Central Africa: 99%
UK Tariffs and Impact on Central Africa’s welfare
USD
mill
ions
Exposure to Contagion
High
Exposure to UK markets
Low
Current account (% of GDP) -6.9
Reserves in months of imports 10.9
FDI net inflows (% of GDP)2.3
Trade (% of GDP)51.5
Exports to UK (% of total)2.5
FDI flows from UK (% of total)0.1
Sterling/Dollar Change (%) -13.1
Sterling Debt (% of total)0.0
HighLow
Welfare Impact by 2020 against baseline, given different scenarios
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000UK trade with Central Africa, USD millions
ExportImportBalance
HS DescriptionUK imports from Central Africa UK imports from World
Growth 2012-16, %Share of Central Africa
in UK imports, %USD millions, 2016 Growth, 2012-16, %
27 Mineral fuels 636 -23.2 -19.8 1.6 44 Wood 18 25.9 7.8 0.3 74 Copper 10 -26.0 -5.3 0.5 29 Organic chemicals 9 -19.1 -14.5 0.1 84 Machinery 5 -32.2 0.1 0.0
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MFN
FTA
DEMAND
422
53 29 7 5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK FDI flow to Central Africa, USD millions
6
The EU-UK Trade Models and their Implications on Mauritius
Model EffectsonMauri1us
Norwegian/EuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)Model
ImpactonTariffs:ThefutureMFNtariffsappliedbytheUKremainamystery.TheUKwillbeabletoestablish its own trade policy and could nego3ate FTAs, including with ESA States. The crucialques3on fromanESApointof view iswhether theUKwouldwish tomaintain theexis3ngmarketaccesscondi3onscontainedintheiEPAintheframeworkofanFTAwithESAcountries.CustomsandTradeFacilita1on:Underthesemodels,customsprocedureswillbenecessary,meaningthattraderswill faceaddi3onalcostsanddelays. Introducingnewcustomsprocedureswouldmeanaddi3onaladministra3vebarriers.RulesofOrigin:RoOwouldalsobedifferentfromthosecurrentlyappliedbytheEU.TheexclusionofESAproducts fromthebenefitsconferredbytheorigina3ngstatuswill inevitablyhappenunlessanFTAbetweentheUKandESAStatesisagreedandcumula3onallowed.
SectoralAgreements-SwissModel
FreeTradeAgreement(FTA)
CustomsUnion-TurkishModel
ImpactonTariffs: EUcustomsdu3eswillneed tobemaintainedacross thewholeEU+UKcustomsterritoryforall import, includingMFNandpreferen3alrates.TheUKwouldalsohavetoacceptthepreferen3alagreementsconcludedbytheEUwiththirdcountries.Forproductsthatarenotcoveredby the CU, theUKwould determine its own tariffs for the imports coming from the EU and thirdcountries.CustomsandTradeFacilita1on:therewouldbenocustomsborderandcustomscontrolbetweentheEU and theUK, this one adop3ng the EU custom code. Consequently, ESA goods entering the CUwouldfacethesame,uniformlyappliedcustomsrulesandproceduresasbefore.RulesofOrigin:theRoOwouldnotbeaffected.
NoPreferen1alAccess-WTOModel
Impact on Tariffs: If theUK and EU are unable to agreewithin the set 3me, trade between themwouldbesubjecttotheirrespec3veSchedulesonGoods.ESAStateswouldhaveadirectstakeintheWTOmembership renego3a3onof theUK that needs thorough, line-by-line analysis of their tradeposi3ons in the UK market and iden3fica3on of their offensive interests. This seems par3cularlyimportantforagriculturalproductswhererenego3a3onwouldalsoconcerntheEU.ApossibleEU–ESAStatesagreementwillhavetocarefullyobservethenego3a3onsattheWTO,asthehighertheliberalisa3on,thehigherwillbethepreferenceerosionsufferedbyESAStates.
Impacts on non-tariff measures: technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures
UK-Africa Trade: Alternatives
• Sign a FTA, which would follow the example of the existing iEPA. In this sense, the UK would liberalise immediately the totality of its tariff lines in its trade, whilst African nations would adopt a gradual liberalisation approach
• WTO - Most-Favoured Nation: average customs duty 4.8 percent
• G e n e r a l i s e d S c h e m e o f Preferences (GSP): the UK would eliminate tariffs on more than 5,000 tariff lines, whilst the average customs duty would be 2.4 percent, in comparison with the current 4.8 percent for the MFN. This would exclude upper-m i d d l e a n d h i g h - i n c o m e countries.
Brexit also means that the UK will no longer be part of all the trade agreements signed by the EU – despite being signatory to them-, due to the Territorial Application clause.
“[this] Agreement shall apply […] to the territories in which the Treaty establishing the European Community is applied and under the conditions laid down in that Treaty”. [See Article 63 EU-ESA iEPA]
The UK will be able to establish its own trade policy agenda. This gives the opportunity for countries to negotiate, as a group or individually, a trade arrangement that accommodates their needs. The foreseeable options are:
• Commonwealth FTA: Covering 52 countries, it would account for 15% of the world’s GNI and a market of over 2 billion people. However, the benefits of improved preferential access to all Commonwealth States might be exploited only by t h e d e v e l o p e d a n d m a j o r emerging economies, leaving the Commonwealth’s small state without “much of a look-in”.
7
Policy implications Try to mitigate fallout
from lower Sterling and diversify towards new
markets & sectors
Strengthen domestic reforms/prepare for adjustment in
affected sectors
Adopt a regional position with other nations to have a coordinated negotiating
position
Find trade-offs within and across FTAs with
the UK
Timing:TheUKwillonlybeabletonego3atetradeagreementsonceitexitstheEU(March2019),whichislikelytocreateagap un3l a new trade agreement is achieved withMauri3us and other developing countries. A transi3onal agreement,maintainingthesame levelofpreferencesgrantedbydevelopedcountries todevelopingones,shouldberequested.Thistransi3onalagreementwouldrequireaWaiverfromtheUK’sWTOObliga3ons.
Way forward
CommonwealthGroup
Dra1ac3onpaper
Na3onalInter-
MinisterialCommi:ee
ACPGroup
Dra1ac3onpaper
EmbassiesLondon
EmbassiesBrussels
UK
DIT
MissionsinGeneva
WTOWaiver
EU
DGTra
de
WTO
Secreta
riat
WTOC
oali3o
ns
EU-UKNego3a3onIntelligence UK-E
UNego3a
3on
Intellige
nce
UKTPIntellige
nce,
FTAinten
3onsand
GSP
EUCurrentFTA
Enforcement
WiderStakeholders
Na3onalTechnicalWorkingGroup
WTOMe
mber
Inten3o
nsonW
aiver
RegionalTechincalGroupingWorkingGroups
Na3on1 Na3on2
Na3on3
Na3on4
Na3on5
Na3on6Na3on7
Regional
Posi3ons
8
Possible Roadmap for countries to take..
2017Q2
2018Q1
2018Q3
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q4
2019Q1
2018Q2
90°
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Paul Baker baker@tradeeconomics.com
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION