Bringing-Technology-to-Life P.M. Westerhout Delft-University-of-Technology ET4034 2013

transcript

1 / 62

Peter Maarten Westerhout

Hong Gie Ong

Course: Network Architectures and Business Models

ET4034, Prof. Dr. Ir. N.H.G. Baken

February 22nd 2013

How to create value and control risks

when introducing new products & services

based on upcoming

communication technologies;

All in order to improve the Quality of Life!

Bringing to Life !

2 / 62

300 AD

2013 AD

the POWER of

is sexy? is sexy !

3 / 62

4 / 62

• Electrical Engineering (1994 - 2002)• Internship in Beijing, China: Microsoft Research • Master Thesis in Singapore: Center for Wireless Communication

2003 Product Manager

2008 Business Strategy

2012 Manager Wholesale Cloud Services

Peter Maarten Westerhout Hong Gie Ong

2002 Security Support

2004 Security Engineer

2011 Security Architect

Peter Maarten Westerhout Hong Gie Ong

Product or Service

• Technology assessment• Prototyping• Engineering• Technological Innovation

5 / 62

the Technical portfolio does not stand alone, but

depends highly on the Commercial and Operational

portfolio for success of the total Portfolio

Commercial Portfolio

TechnicalPortfolio

Operational Portfolio

Portfolio Model:

6 / 62

• Product Development• Marketing & Sales• Forecasting

Product or Service

TechnicalPortfolio

Portfolio Model:

7 / 62

• Installation, Service & Maintainance

• Network Management• Provisioning, capacity

managementProduct or Service

TechnicalPortfolio

Portfolio Model:

8 / 62

Manage the game

Commercial

Product or Service

Technical

Operational

Portfolio Model:

Manage the game: Bringing Portfolio to Life

9 / 62

Commercial

Product or Service

Technical

Operational

Bringing to Life

Manage the game

Bringing Technology

to Life

10 / 62

Life … C

Tech … T Technical

Manage

Commercial

Bringing to Life

11 / 62

Life … C

Tech … T Technical

Manage

Commercial

Bringing to Life

… Innovation

… Adoption

12 / 62

… Innovation

… Adoption

Successful Deployment

Economical, Societal, Environmental

Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife …

+Value

Creation

Control

Product or Service

Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesTech … T

Bringing to Life

13 / 62

CLOUDGPS

… Innovation

… Adoption

IMPACT of on daily life

14 / 62

1983 2013… Innovation

… Adoption

smaller, integrated , with cool looks

15 / 62

… Innovation

… Adoption

IMPACT of in a minute

16 / 62

… Innovation

… Adoption

Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife …

+Value

Creation

Control

Product or Service

Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesTech … T Choose UpcomingTechnology

Define New Service

Argue who will Pay for the product or service

Predict Value Creation

Identify Risks & discuss Controls

Assignment

Bringing to Life

Assignment

17 / 62

… Innovation

… Adoption

Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife … C

Product or Service

Tech … T Choose UpcomingTechnology

Define New Service

Assignment

+Value

Creation

Control

Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies

Bringing to Life

… Innovation

… Adoption

Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife … C

Product or Service

Tech … T Choose UpcomingTechnology

Define New Service

Assignment

+Value

Creation

Control

18 / 62

Upcoming Technologies Bringing to Life

19 / 62

i. Developments of ICT Building Blocks and their ‘Iron Laws’

ii. Predicting Technological Maturity (Hype Cycle)

Upcoming Technologies

20 / 62

The building blocks of ICT Networks

A. Computing power > More MIPS!

B. Storage capacity > More GBytes!

C. Bandwidth > More Mbits/s!

21 / 62

In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore saw the future. His prediction, now popularly known as Moore's Law, states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years.

http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/index.htm

Moore's Law Means More Performance. Processing power, measured in millions of instructions per second (MIPS), has steadily risen because of increased transistor counts.

The ‘original’ Moore’s law.

A. Computing power: More MIPS!

22 / 62

A. Computing power: More MIPS!

23 / 62

B. More Storage Capacity: More GBytes!

24 / 62

B. More Storage Capacity: More GBytes!

25 / 62

C. More Bandwidth: More Mbits/s!

Development of user trafic in Fixed and Mobile

26 / 62

Typically doubling times are under tree years

DT (years)

A. Processingpower

B. Storagecapacity

C. Bandwidth

1 2 2.50

27 / 62

Technological developments make products smaller, faster and better

28 / 62

Total INTERNET TRAFFIC GROWTH

Traffic growth depends on the increase in the:

Number of users

Used bandwidth

Time online

29 / 62

The steady growth of Internet traffic Amsterdam Internet Exchange

Source: AMS-IX (Amsterdam Internet Exchange)

2004: 40 G2005: 80 G2006: 150 G

2012: 900 Gbps

30 / 62

i. Developments of ICT Building Blocks and their ‘Iron Laws’

ii. Predicting Technological Maturity (Hype Cycle)

31 / 62

Upcoming Technologies Recycling speed of technology

increases

32 / 62

Gartner Hype Cycle: Emerging Technologies

How it works, and the year 2002

33 / 62

Which Emerging Technology Hypes Now?

[BlackBoard]

34 / 62

Which Emerging Technology Hypes 2012? Upcoming

Technologies

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/gartnergroup/files/2012/09/2012Emerging-Technologies-Graphic4.gif

35 / 62

Control

Product or Service

+Value

Creation

Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesT

Bringing to Life

Choose UpcomingTechnology

Assignment

High Impact on daily Life ICT abides Iron Laws Hype Cycle predicts

technology maturity

36 / 62

Control

+Value

Creation

Bringing to Life

Product or Service

T Choose UpcomingTechnology

Define New Service2

Assignment

37 / 62

Bringing to Life

Product or Service

38 / 62

Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalC

Bringing to Life

Product or Service

Control

Define New Service2

Assignment

+Value

Creation

+Value

Creation

Be creative Be practicalPredict Value Creation

39 / 62

A. Bridge one of the 5 digital divides

B. Apply one of the 5 Value Models

C. Use one of the 5 Value Patterns

+Value

Creation Bringing to Life

40 / 62

Digital Divide: Geographically

Interactive visualisations of traffic flows by Stephen Eick and colleagues.(source: Stephen Eick, Bell Labs / Visual Insights, <http://www.visualinsights.com>)1

Social and Economic Impact+Value

Creation

41 / 62

Digital Divide: 1) Geographically > 3rd World

Internet Telephony

Creation

42 / 62

Digital Divide: 2) Geographically > NETHERLANDS!!

population density Netherlands

Creation

43 / 62

Digital Divide: 3) Demographically

IPhone-hacker of 13 years reportsAMSTERDAM - The hacking of the 'foreign' iPhone that in the Netherlands seems to be able to use a true sport. Meanwhile sign up a 13-year old boy on the Internet in no time the hip mobile ready for use, log Bright.nl lifestyle.

Prime Minister and the mystery of the computer mouse AMSTERDAM - The prime minister Wim Kok has no clue how to use a mouse. He is educated by kids from elementary school who explain the whereabouts of computing.

Creation

44 / 62

Digital Divide: 4) Economically

Creation

< 20 €

45 / 62

Digital Divide: 5) Socially

Business life will have to adopt Employee 2.0

‘Millennials'.‘Golden oldies'.

Nieuwe Werken

Creation

46 / 62

B. Apply one of the 5 Value Models

C. Use one of the 5 Value Patterns

+Value

Creation

47 / 62

1927 1956

B1. Not innovation speed, but adoption speed determines future success

+Value

Creation

48 / 62Source: http://www.acuity-mi.com/images/TAL.jpg

+Value

Creation

B1. Focus on Specific target group & define early Adopters

49 / 62

B1. Cumulative adoption

Adoption Curve

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Early Adopters

Innovators

Early Majority

Late Majority

Laggards

+Value

Creation

50 / 62

B1. Consumption spreads faster today+

Value Creation

51 / 62

B2. Disruptive vs. Sustaining innovation

Main article: disruptive technology

Hard disks

Flash memory

Optical camera’s

Digicam

+Value

Creation

52 / 62

B3. Network Value > Network Effect

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_lawdoc

Metcalfe’s Law:

Odlyzko’s revision

+Value

Creation

53 / 62

B3. Impact Wireless Connected Networking-effect

+Value

Creation

Internet of things

54 / 62

B4. The Longtail: Technology dependant

Scarcity

Abundance

25 december 2006

DRIVERS:

1. Production2. Distribution3. Filtering

+Value

Creation

55 / 62

B5. Substitution Value in other Industries due to Digital Developments:

+Value

Creation

56 / 62

B. Apply one of 5 Value Models

C. Follow one of 5 Value Patterns

+Value

Creation

57 / 62

C1) Look abroad, follow the success+

Value Creation

58 / 62

C.2 Make use of other Moving trends+

Value Creation

59 / 62

C.2 Make use of other Moving trends

http://lcolumbus.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/smartphone-forecast.jpg

+Value

Creation

60 / 62

C.2 Make use of other Moving trends

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GSM GPRS UMTS HSDPA HSPA HSPA-Evolved LTE

Bandwidth developments in mobile wireless sytems seem exponentieel

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bandbreedte(Mbps)

fiber wireless

+Value

Creation

61 / 62

C3. REMIX Technologies CES - Samsung's Smart Window

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=m5rlTrdF5Cs

+Value

Creation

62 / 62

C4. Use the Interdependencies and similarities of between Sectors

• Eco-Systems & Transsectoral Value

+Value

Creation

63 / 62

Sci-Fi

Reality

Star Wars ©

Volumetric 3-D Display

C5) Follow the Movies: It will become Reality (1)+

Value Creation

64 / 62

C5) Follow the Movies: It will become Reality (2)+

Value Creation

65 / 62

Control

Product or Service

+Value

Creation

Bringing to Life

Define New Service2

Assignment

Close the Digital divide Make use of Value Models Look around and remix

from Value Patterns

Product or Service

+Value

Creation

Control

Bringing to Life

Define New Service2

Assignment

67 / 62

Identifying & Controlling Potential Risks

Potential risks that need to be controlled for a successful adoption of products or services based on upcoming infocomm technologies

Control

ControlEnsuring a successful tech adoption

Hong Gie Ong

68 / 62

Product or Service

+Value

Creation

Control

Identify Risks from the 5 layered Risk-model

Evaluate and apply suitable Controls

Bringing to Life

Assignment

Define New Service2

Assignment

69 / 62

Product or Service

+Value

Creation

Control

Bringing to Life

Define New Service2

Assignment

5 Life …

Tech …

70 / 62

Describe an idea for a business opportunity based

on a new or upcoming communication technology

Define New Service

Define who will Pay for the product or service

Predict Value Creation3

Discuss Risk Control4

1. Choose a communication technology and describe it shortly2. Discuss where it is in the Gartner Hype Cycle and why ..?

Bringing to Life

Tech-to-Life Assignment

71 / 62

Define New Service

Define who will Pay for the product or service

Predict Value Creation3

Discuss Risk Control4

4. Who is the specific target group for use of product/service? And can the product and/or service bridge a gap in the Digital Divide ?

5. Discuss how the service adds Value to these Users, relating to at least two Theoretical models (i.e. networking effect, long tail, etc. ..)

6. Discuss Value creation related to other commercial developments, or through remixing with other technologies or sectoral developments

1. Choose a communication technology and describe it shortly2. Discuss where it is in the Gartner Hype Cycle and why ..?

7. Discuss one generic risk and possible control on level 1, 2 or 3

8. Discuss one specific risk and possible control on level 4 or 5

9. Discuss which quality of life pilar (Economy, Society, Environment) is most prone to the risks as identified above

10. Who will pay for the product / service? (i.e. advertiser, subscriber, the distributor, the user, Free or Freemium)

3. Describe a “new” product/service based on this technology

Bringing to Life

72 / 62

Assignment process work in couples of max three persons (2 x 5 hours) report size = max 2-3 pages A4 including illustrations Keep it short and clear finalize assignment before March 22nd and email your report to

petermaarten.westerhout@kpn.com deadline together with other ET4-034 assignments

• feedback on your results via email• evaluated assignments handed over to Prof. Baken

Scores will be based on theoretical insight, originality and clarity of report

Keep it Simple & Good luck !

Bringing to Life

73 / 62

Communication Technology has major impact on Life and is Sexy!

It’s about Creating Value, Controling Risk & Life Adoption!

74 / 62

Peter Maarten Westerhout

Hong Gie Ong

Course: Network Architectures and Business Models

ET4034, Prof. Dr. Ir. N.H.G. Baken

How to create value and control risks

when introducing new products & services

based on upcoming

communication technologies;

All in order to improve the Quality of Life!

Bringing to Life

We are looking forward

to some great

tech-to-life assignments !

We are looking forward

to some great

tech-to-life assignments !