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California Statewide Travel Demand Model

California Statewide Travel Demand Model Update

June 17, 2014

Cambridge Systematics

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CSTDM Status

All Models have been fully completed» Base year validation and sensitivity testing are

complete

Future Year Forecasts are nearly complete» Results and Growth Statistics will be available

within two weeks» Horizon Years:

• 2015, 2020 (complete)• 2035, 2040, 2050 (in progress)

Documentation is in progress» Expected to be fully completed within one month

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Year 2010 Model Validation by Screenline

Traffic Counts

CSTDM Forecast (Colors are for each model component)

Difference between Counts and Model

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Highway Assignment Validation Summary

NCHRP 255 Standard

Modeled Volume

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Changes in Population and Employment

2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500

10,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,000

Total Population

2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Total Employment

2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8% Average Annual % Change

Population

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Next Steps

For CTP Forecasting, we will start with sensitivity tests» Expand Transit (already tested)» Road User Charges» Congestion Pricing» Increasing occupancies on HOV across the state

Test draft package of policies/strategies

Presentation of initial results to PAC at August Meeting