Can Technology Save Our Environment? 4. Data Supporting Anthropogenic Global Warming.

transcript

Can New Technology Save our Environment ?

4. data supporting anthropogenic

global warming

Our CO2 emissions are happening 300 times faster than natural effects.

RISE 30 September 2014.

Paul H. Carr, Ph. D.

www.MirrorOfNature.org

1. Nature’s beauty versus its utility. 2.Can new technology save us in time? Limits to Growth. Food Crash.

3. Why be concerned about Global Warming? Weather Extremes. 4. Data supporting anthropogenic global warming.

5. Technology and policies are available to save us.

CAN NEW TECHNOLOGY SAVE OUR ENVIRONMENT?

The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.

1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year.

2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES 18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.

3. SLOWING OF THE TEMPERATURE RISE SINCE 2000. Sea level rise has not slowed and is a better measure of global waming.

2014 CO2 levels of 400 ppm are 120 ppm above the pre-industrial average

• Carbon isotope ratios indicate the CO2 increase since1750 is from burning ~300 million yr old fossil fuels.

1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING

Little Ice Age

•Seasonal variations, 6 ppm or 2%, are superposed on the C02 increase.

• Population more than doubled since 1970

CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE 1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.

1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm.

Aerosols

“Physics

Today”

Jan 2009

Pg. 48.

11- yr sun-spot cycle.

No increase

in solar irradiance since 1979.

Greenhouse EffectGlass transmits visible light and effectively reflects infrared heat.

VisibleInfrared -Glass

Greenhouse Gases

Visible

Greenhouse Gases• CO2• CH4

• CFC• N2O

• H2O

TEMPERATURES ON THE MOON ?No greenhouse gas atmosphere.

TEMPERATURES ON THE MOONNo greenhouse gas atmosphere

• Diurnal Variations:

Day 123 C (396 Kelvin)

Night -233 C (40 Kelvin)

ON EARTH• Greenhouse gasses, blanketing the earth, give much

smaller variations.

• On cloudless nights, non-condensing, persistent, and increasing CO2, plus temperate dependent H20 vapor, keeps us warmer than on the moon.

Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.

Satellite and Radiosonde (weather balloon) Data.

Lower Stratosphere (60,000ft) is cooling

Earth’s surface is warming.

The increased "blanketing" effect in the lower atmosphere holds in more heat, allowing less to reach the stratosphere

If the solar irradiance were increasing, the surface & stratosphere would both increase.14

-Outgoing spectral radiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere showing the absorption at specific frequencies and the principle absorber CO2 at 16 microns. -The red curve shows the flux from a classic "blackbody" at 294°K (≈31°C≈69.5°F). Schmidt, G.A., 2010 J. Geophys. Res.,115, D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD014287. 15

1750-2005: Even if the cloud albedo effect is assumed to have the maximum cooling value, there would still be a net warming of the climate due to human activities. (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007Report)

Solar Irradiance increased by only 0.2% since 1750.

• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.

• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2014/2/watching-earth-change

HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.

18 Last Ice Age, 20,000 years ago. Global Ave -3.5 deg.C

A darker Arctic is boosting global warmingFrom1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made

North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract

Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.

ARCTIC MELTING, Global Ave Temp 3.5 Deg. C WarmerSATELITE PHOTO

During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories

4 M PEOPLE 7 B

Ice Age

Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)

2. CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING

Average Temp. Increase 3.5 deg. C.

At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 -10,000 years ago.

CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO.

Ice Age

• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.

• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm.• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm -Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.

Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS

At 2 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate that is about 80 times that of the fastest natural rate and almost 2000 times the average rate over the past 800,000 years!

CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (31%) IN 800,000 YRS, WILL DOUBLE BY 2100.

CO2 DOUBLING WITHOUT WATER: 1.15 K TEMPERATURE INCREASE

WATER FEEDBACK PROCESS ADDS 1.52 K: 2.75 TOTAL TEMPERATURE INC.

COUPLED-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT : 3.45 K MEDIAN.

ROUNDS OFF TO 3 K INCREASE“Water in the Atmosphere,” Physics Today, June 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.2009

Probability plotted versus Temperature Increase for C02 doubling. 2.6 C most probable. (Chris Hope, U Cambridge)

Cost of mitigation= $162 trillion Cost of most probable damage = $314 trillion

CLIMATE SENSITIVITY FOR CO2 DOUBLING

• Melting Greenland• Melting Antarctica• Mountain Glaciers• Thermal expansion

3. Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has be greater. EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036 “Faux Pause” by M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014

Faux Pause

Aerosol Pause

TEMPERATURE INCREASE CORRELATES WITH CO2 1860 – 1960: Temp Increase 0.4 C; 1960 -2012: 0.8 C

Prof. Rick Mullerwww.BerkeleyEarth.org

Volcanoes

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

by Robert K. Kaufmann et al. Proc. National Academy of Sciences 2011

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/27/1102467108 •China more than doubled its consumption/burning of coal from 2004 to 2007.

•Sulfur aerosol emissions created by burning coal tend to have a net cooling effect on the atmosphere.

• The cooling effects of sulfur aerosols has essentially countered any global temperature rise caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide.

•This balancing act between sulfur and carbon dioxide, along with the slight decrease in solar energy during the solar minimum and the cool La Nina, meant there was essentially no statistically meaningful change in the global temperature from 1998 to 2008.

Video of my IEEE (Institute of Electrical & Electronic Engineers) Climate Discussion, produced at NewTV, Newton, MA, 27 August 2014.

Moderator (left) John Horrigan introduced Paul H. Carr (center) and Ted Kochanski (right)Video available available at http://vimeo.com/106296674Video link can also be found by visiting my web page www.MirrorOfNature.orgAnd clicking on CLIMATE VIDEO

A mixed regional picture.In this map of observed local surface temperature changes from 1951 to 2010, areas without adequate observational coverage (shown in gray) are mostly found in the tropics and at

high latitudes. [Adapted from (1)].

G Hegerl, and P Stott Science 2014;343:844-845

Published by AAAS

Global Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by Half British and Canadian researchers show that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “faux pause” has virtually disappeared.- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/global-warming-since-1997-underestimated-by-half/#sthash.fTsg2ih7.dpuf

The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase.

Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%)

2008, Sea Level rising

Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean between 1980 and 2011.

A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full

Published by AAAS

Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different indicated depths in the global ocean, A.

X Chen, and K Tung Science 2014;345:897-903

Published by AAAS

38EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036Aerosols delay temperature increase.( M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014 )

Probability plotted versus Temperature Increase for C02 doubling. 2.6 C most probable. (Chris Hope, U Cambridge)

Cost of mitigation= $162 trillion Cost of most probable damage = $314 trillion

CLIMATE SENSITIVITY FOR CO2 DOUBLING

CONCLUSIONS:•The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013: “It is extremely likely (>95% likely) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” (www.ipcc.ch)•

•Prof. Richard Muller’s independent non-profit research, www.BerkeleyEarth.org , shows how all warming since 1900 is due to human greenhouse gas emissions.

•Sea level rise correlates with CO2 increase which have NOT paused since 2000. •“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy..” HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush. June 2014.

•To learn more, please visit my web page

•www.MirrorOfNature.org*

HUMAN C02 FOOTPRINT

At the 2002 Sigma Xi Research Symposium I asked Prof. Molina: “What do you think about global warming ?”

Prof. Mario J. Molina shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work in atmospheric chemistry showing that the human generation of CFC were making a hole in ozone layer.

He answered that global weather forecasting and predicting are complex and difficult.

However if your question is, “Should we do something about global warming?” My answer is: “YES!”

We mustreduce ourCO2 emissions.

REFERENCES:

•Reconciling warming trends Volcanic, aerosol, and La Nina cooling together with slightly lower solar emissions explain recent decreased warming. Significant warming trends are likely to resume, because the dominant long-term warming effect of greenhouse gases continues to rise. Asian aerosol pollution levels are likely to stabilize and perhaps decrease, Gavin A. Schmidt et. al. NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 7 | pgs. 158-160. MARCH 2014 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience

•MIT Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s short book What We Know about Climate Change.http://www.amazon.com/About-Climate-Change-Boston-Review/dp/0262018438/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1397128649&sr=1-1&keywords=kerry+emanuel •Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s Free Course GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCEhttps://www.edx.org/course/mitx/mitx-12-340x-global-warming-science-1244#.U0K5S_ldWSo

•www.ipcc.ch The United Nations Intergovermental Panel on Climate ChangeCLIMATE CHANGE 2013:The Physical Science Basis.http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ •www.BerkeleyEarth.org Prof. Richard Muller’s independent non-profit research group. Funders include the Gates Foundation and the Koch Brothers. • Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a “faux pause”, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future.By Michael E. Mann, Scientific American, vol 310, Issue 4, April 2014http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/ •Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millenniumOver the past 1,000 years volcanic eruptions and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be the most important influence. Andrew P. Schurer et. al. NATURE GEOSCIENCE, VOL 7, FEBRUARY 2014. www.nature.com/naturegeoscience DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2040

REFERENCES