Post on 31-Dec-2015
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Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House
Patrick J. MichaelsDistinguished Senior Fellow
School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University
Senior FellowCato Institute
Waxman-Markey
•3% below 2005 emissions in 2012•16% below 2005 by 2020•42% below 2005 by 2030•83% below 2005 by 2050
WAXMAN-MARKEY HOUSING STANDARDS
• 30% more efficient than 2005 in 2012
• 50% in 2016
• Additional 5% every three years
DO THE MATH
• By 2049 (38.4 years from today) --
EVERY HOME IS A GENERATOR.
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5
10
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20
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1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Pe
r C
ap
ita
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(m
etr
ic t
on
s)
2005
US per capita CO2 emissions
POST-2005 VALUES BASED UPON WAXMAN-MARKEYand U.S. Census Bureau projections
U.S. Annual CO2 Emissions
5200
5300
5400
5500
5600
5700
5800
5900
6000
6100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
U.S
. An
nu
al C
O2
Em
iss
ion
s (
mm
tCO
2)
Waxman-Markey (U.S.-only)
Waxman-Markey (Kyoto Countries)"Business-as-Usual"
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2050
Glo
bal
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(C)
Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global TemperaturesYear 2050
1.584°C 1.540°C 1.500°C
Waxman-Markey (U.S.-only)
Waxman-Markey (Kyoto Countries)
"Business-as-Usual"
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2100
Glo
bal
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(C)
Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global TemperaturesYear 2100
2.959°C 2.847°C 2.738°C
COST ESTIMATES
(This Page Intentionally Left Blank)
FROM CONGRESS TO EPA
EPA Endangerment Finding (December 7, 2009):
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.”
* EPA defines “very likely” as a 90 to 95% probability
“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009
Total RiseObs. = 0.702°C
(sources: HadCRUT3)
“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST Errors
Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.552°C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 79% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008)
“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + Non-climatic Influences
Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.468°C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 67% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)
“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O
Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.408°C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 58% of “Observed”
(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010)
“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + Black Carbon
Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.306°C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 44% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009)
“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + BC + Sun
Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.204°C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 29% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009; Scafetta, 2009)
“Many residents of low-lying Pacific Island nations have already had to evacuate their homes because of rising seas.”
HIGH TIDE IN FUNAFUTI, TUVALUPOLYNESIA
Steric Sea Level Trends, 1955-1996
Region where Tuvalu and many other Pacific Island nations are located. Sea levels have declined there.
Source: Cabanes et al., Science, 2001
IPCC AR4 Global Average Sea Level Rise Projections
(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
URGENCY?
IPCC’s 21 Models for Climate Change—Realistic CO2 Changes
Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures
Observed Trend
Model Projections
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration(Observed and Projected)
ATMOSPHERIC METHANE
SOURCES
Bovine Flatulence
Rice Paddy Agriculture
Coal Mining
Leaky Pipes?
Atmospheric Methane (Duglokenky 09)IPCC 2001 (same as 2007) Overlay
Methane, 1983-2008 (Dlugokenky 09)
Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures
Observed Trend
Model Projections
Global and NH Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)(January 1979 - March 2010)
Global ACE
Northern Hemisphere ACE