Capacity Development for CDM Fourth National Workshop Cairo, 14-15 June 2004

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Capacity Development for CDM - National Workshop on PDDCapacity Development for CDM - National Workshop on PDD,, Cairo, 14-15 June 2004 Cairo, 14-15 June 2004Capacity Development for CDM - National Workshop on PDDCapacity Development for CDM - National Workshop on PDD,, Cairo, 14-15 June 2004 Cairo, 14-15 June 2004

Capacity Development for CDM

Fourth National WorkshopCairo, 14-15 June 2004

PDD Preparation for CDM ProjectsPDD Preparation for CDM Projects

Operationalising CDM ProjectsOperationalising CDM Projects

Samir Amous, APEX, TunisiaSamir Amous, APEX, TunisiaRegional Centre for North Africa and Middle-EastRegional Centre for North Africa and Middle-EastTel : +216 71 848 094 --- Fax : +216 71 843 453Tel : +216 71 848 094 --- Fax : +216 71 843 453

amous.apex@gnet.tn

Rules for projectsto get the CDM Label

International RulesInternational Rules

Kyoto Protocol entry into force

55 Parties should have ratified

Annex B Parties to KP should represent at least 55% of Annex-I Parties’ GHG emissions

Criteria for Host CountriesCriteria for Host Countries

KP Ratification

Designation of a National Authority for CDM

Criteria for CDM ProjectsCriteria for CDM Projects

Projects (PDD) to be APPROVED by the host country

Approved projects to be submitted to the CDM-Executive Board for VALIDATION and REGISTRATION

Criteria for CDM ProjectsCriteria for CDM Projects

Project Execution to conform to COP and EB Rules (Monitoring, DOE for Verification, Certification of CERs, etc.)

Status of the Situation

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

122 countries have ratified:34 Annex B Parties to KP44.2% of

Annex I Parties’ emissions5 Annex B Parties to KP have not ratified

yet (55.6% of Annex I Parties’ emissions:

•USA: 36.1%•Russian Federation: 17.4%•Australia: 2.1%•Monaco and Lichtenstein: ~ 0%

122 countries have ratified, of which:88 Non-Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC;

of which 4 major emitting NA-I Countries:

•China• India•Brazil•Korea

122 countries have ratified, of which:3 Countries from North-Africa and

Middle-East :

•Jordan•Morocco•Tunisia

DNA : situationDNA : situation

60 dans established dans in the World; of which, 6 from NA&ME:

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

CDM progressCDM progress

13 meetings of the EB

14th Meeting: 12-14 june

CDM progressCDM progress

51 Baseline methodologies submitted to EB; of which:

11 approved

Lignes de base MDP: Lignes de base MDP: Méthodologies approuvéesMéthodologies approuvées

11 Approved BL Methodologies:

6 Latin America (4 in Brazil)

4 Asia

1 Africa

CDM RECAP

CDM Process in place, with EB operating well

CDM Process implementation in host countries pending KP ratification and DNA establishment

In Principal…CDM is pending the Russian ratification of KP…

HOWEVER….

CDM Market already in place

CDM ProgressCDM Progress

A progressing CDM Market :

Resources available:

US$ 600 million150 million tons of CO2

Major Actors:

The Netherlands: 30%

Prototype Carbon Fund: 22%

Japan: 12%

Recent initiatives:

Germany, Denmark, Austria, Belgium (21%)

CDM/JI et Emission Trading: Market CDM/JI et Emission Trading: Market Potential in 15 EU CountriesPotential in 15 EU Countries

Around Around 2.7 Billion2.7 Billion

tCO2etCO2efor the periodfor the period(2008-2012)(2008-2012)

for the 15 EUfor the 15 EU(Low-Growth(Low-Growth

totoMed-GrowthMed-Growth

Scen.)Scen.)

Canada: 688 MtCO2e

Japan: 1,130 MtCO2e

New Zeland: 85 MtCO2e

Around 4.6 billiontCO2e (2008-2012)

920 MtCO2e/yrUS$ 3.7 billion/yr at

US$4/tCO2e

CDM:EU is taking the Lead

Council of Ministers and Parliament decisions:

The CDM will take place even without KP entry into force (Mini-KPMini Market)

CERs accepted from 2005

Council of Ministers and Parliament decisions:

Probably no types of projects excluded (e.g. sinks, big-Hydro, Coal)

Member States free to fix their own limitations, if any, for buying CERs and for sinks projects

Carbon Market:Perspectives

Worst PerspectivesWorst Perspectives

Russia will ratify (USA neither)

Market Potential for CDM/JI:

100 MtCO2e/yr

US$ 4/tCO2e

Market Value for CDM/JI: US$ 400 Millions/yr

Middle PerspectivesMiddle Perspectives

Russia will not ratify (USA neither)Japan, Canada and NZ will not join

the EU Mini-KP InitiativeMarket Potential for CDM/JI:

300 MtCO2e/yrUS$ 6/tCO2e

Market Value for CDM/JI: US$ 1.8 Billion/yr

Best PerspectivesBest Perspectives

Russia will not ratify (USA neither)Japan, Canada and NZ will join the

EU Mini-KP InitiativeMarket Potential for CDM/JI:

550 MtCO2e/yrUS$ 10/tCO2e

Market Value for CDM/JI: US$ 5.5 Billion/yr

Capacity Development for CDM Fourth National Workshop Cairo, 14-15 June 2004

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