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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
The Carbon Footprint of NationsA global multi-regional analysis
Edgar G. Hertwich and Glen P. Peters
Industrial Ecology Programme
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Trondheim, Norway
ISIE Conference
Lisbon, 22 June 2009
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
Overview
1. Objective, Motivation2. Multiregional Input-Output Model and Data• Carbon footprints of nations
• Cross-sectional analysis: Wealth and CO2
• Conclusions and outlook
http://carbonfootprintofnations.comhttp://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es803496a
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
Objective
• Better understand the composition of carbon footprints of different countries– What are the most important consumption
categories?– How important is public consumption compared to
private (household) consumption and investment?
• Investigate global patterns of carbon footprint– cross-national analysis– underlying driving factors
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
First global assessment
• GTAP* database– 87 world regions– 57 sectors– For the year 2001– GHG emissions only
• Various data and methodological issues
*Global Trade Analysis Project
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
Full MRIO Model (1)
Mass balance as for total trade
Step 1: Split exports between final demand and industry
Step 2: Split exports to industry in direct proportions
Peters, Ecol.Econ. 2007
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
Full MRIO Model (2)
• Full MRIO mass balance
Interindustry demand
Domestic demand
Export to final demandExport to industry
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Full MRIO Model (3)
11 j 1 1j131 11 12 1m 1
22 j 2 2j232 21 22 2m 2
3 31 32 33 3m 3 33 j 3 3j
m m1 m2 m3 mm m j mj
mm m
y yAx A A A x
y yAx A A A x
x A A A A x y y
x A A A A x y y
≠
≠
≠
≠
+ Σ + Σ = + + Σ + Σ
L
L
L
OM M M M M M M
L
Domestic IO coefficientsImport IO coefficients
ˆ importij ij jA s A=
Imports to final demand
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
0 5 10 15 20
Households
Government
Investment
CO2 [Gt CO2]
0 2 4 6 8
Households
Government
Investment
Non-CO2-GHG [Gt CO2e]
0 5 10 15 20 25
Households
Government
Investment
GHG total [Gt CO2e]
Construction
ShelterFood
Clothing
Manufactured products
MobilityService
Trade
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es803496a
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
OECD NW
East Asia
Europe
South Asia
South America
Middle East/North Africa
Sub-saharan Africa
Construction
ShelterFood
Clothing
Manufactured products
MobilityService
Trade
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1E-1
1E+0
1E+1
1E+2
1E-1 1E+0 1E+1 1E+2
Consumption [1000 $/capita/y]
Fo
otp
rin
t [t
/ca
pit
a/y
]GHG
NonCO2
CO2
Power (NonCO2)
Power (CO2)
Power (GHG)
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
ton
CO
2e p
er c
apita
Construction
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
Shelter
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
Food
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
ton
CO
2e p
er c
apita
Clothing
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
Manufactured products
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
Mobility
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
Expenditure ($ per capita)
ton
CO
2e p
er c
apita
Service
102
104
10-2
10-1
100
101
Expenditure ($ per capita)
Trade
OECD NWEast Asia
Europe
South Asia
South America
Middle East/North AfricaSub-saharan Africa
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Importance of categories as a function of wealth
102
103
104
105
10-3
10-2
10-1
100
101
102
ton
CO
2e p
er c
apita
Expenditure ($ per capita)
Construction
ShelterFood
Clothing
Manufactured products
MobilityService
Trade
GHG footprint
elasticity
Construction 0.74 Shelter 0.65 Food 0.29
Clothing 0.79 Manufactures 0.88
Mobility 0.83 Service 0.55 Trade 0.88
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What really matters …
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103
104
105
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
ton
CO
2e
pe
r ca
pita
Expenditure ($ per capita)
ConstructionShelterFoodClothingManufactured productsMobilityServiceTrade
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Edgar.hertwich@ntnu.no, carbonfootprintofnations.com
Numerical regression results
Monetary elasticity
GHG footprint elasticity
Global Average
Footprint 1$/d
Footprint $100’000/y
Construction 0.99 0.74 10 % 5 % 9 %
Shelter 0.97 0.65 19 % 13 % 14 %
Food 0.64 0.29 20 % 44 % 6 %
Clothing 0.91 0.79 3 % 2 % 3 %
Manufactures 1.09 0.88 10 % 5 % 18 %
Mobility 1.07 0.83 17 % 10 % 29 %
Service 1.16 0.55 16 % 19 % 11 %
Trade 1.14 0.88 6 % 2 % 9 %
Total [tCO2/person-year] 5.5 1.5 53
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International Comparison
Country Year Income
elasticity of energy
Income elasticity of
CO2
Expenditure elasticity of
energy
Expenditure elasticity of
CO2
Change in energy with household
size
Australia 1993-94 0.59 0.55 0.74 0.70 -0.16 Australia 1998-99 0.78 -0.02 Brazil 1995 1.00 -0.07 Denmark 1995 0.51 0.51 0.90 0.90 -0.20 Denmark 1995 0.86 -0.22 India 1993-94 0.86 -0.01 Japan 1999 0.64 0.06 Netherlands 1990 0.63 0.83 -0.33 New Zealand 1980 0.40 Norway 1973 0.72 -0.27 USA 1960-81 0.85 USA 1972-73 0.78 -0.33
Lenzen et al. Energy 2006
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Cross-country and within country variation
• Same elasticity for energy/CO2 – remarkable invariance of wealth-energy connection across different circumstances and many orders of magnitude
• Both approaches have the weakness of measuring consumption in monetary terms – different CO2 intensity of different qualities of same product type not considered
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Further work
• Role of technology versus changes in quality and structure with increased wealth
• Density, climate and other explanatory variables
• Specific comparisons – decoupling of “footprints” and wealth; other indicators of welfare
• New database – EXIOPOL: more environmental detail
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Questions?
edgar.hertwich@ntnu.noedgar.hertwich@ntnu.no
www.carbonfootprintofnations.comwww.carbonfootprintofnations.com
Edgar HertwichIndustrial Ecology Programme
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Trondheim, Norway