Post on 10-Jun-2015
description
transcript
Green Breakfast - Renewable Energy Opportunities
Carter Jonas
� National firm of property consultants dating back to 1855
� 30 Offices across England & Wales� Multi disciplined firm:
� Residential� Rural Land & Business� Commercial� Planning & Development � Architecture & Building Consultancy Specialist Teams:� Energy & Marine� GIS CAD & Mapping� Minerals and Waste � Infrastructures
The Energy Team (Energy & Marine)
West/South West Eastern/South East
Northern
Current projects
� Clients include: Land and property owners, developers, energy companies, utility companies, investors in the sector, businesses with high energy demands
� Proven track record: 200+ ongoing projects
� Strong market knowledge and experience of renewable energy sector, including manufacturers & their products
Wind Farm
Wind medium
Wind small
Hydro
Solar - roof mounted
Solar - ground mounted
AD
Biomass
UK Renewables - drivers:(not exhaustive)
� UK signed up to EU Renewable Energy Directive - by 2020 15% of energy from renewables
- Aim to tackle climate change in UK and reduce our CO2 emissions between ’09 and 2030 by 750M tonnes
- Reduce fossil fuel demands by circa 10% and gas imports by 20-30% versus likely use by 2020
- Create employment
� Carbon Reduction Commitment – CRC (users of 6000mWh/annum -£500K+)
� Middle East – supply of fossil fuels…reliability??
� Oil price (Brent Crude) $125/barrel
� UK Nuclear development – effects of Fukushima
Proposed Electricity Market Reform
� Announced by Government - Dec 2010
� “Seismic shift” and proposals include long term contracts and a carbon price floor
� Aims include electricity market shake up to ensure £100++bn of infrastructure investment by 2020
� Proposals include Feed-in Tariff scheme using contracts for difference (CfD) to create a stable revenue stream for low carbon generators
� Intention to set an emissions performance standard – ruling out gas power stations not fitted with CCS tech
� Carbon floor price plans – Treasury – 3 scenarios up to either £20/30/40 per Tonne by 2020.
� Plans were out to consultation to March 2011, possible legislation by year end?
Support Mechanisms at present
� Renewables Obligation and ROCs
� Feed-in Tariff (FiT) – up to 5MW
� RHI – forthcoming July 2011 on a phased basis
Background to the Renewables Obligation
� UK’s support scheme for large renewable electricity projects – runs to 2037
� Obligation on UK electricity suppliers to source a proportion of their electricity from renewables
� ROC – the “green certificate”
� 27 April 2011: average single ROC trading at £50.54
� In England and Wales renewable projects receive varying ROC support levels
ROC BandingsTechnology Payment examples:-
� Onshore Wind 1.0 ROC per MWH
� Offshore Wind 1.5
� Hydro-electric 1.0
� Solar Photovoltaic 2.0
� Wave/Tidal Steam 2.0
� Anaerobic Digestion/Energy Crops 2.0
� Biomass with CHP 2.0 (1.5 without CHP)
Feed-in Tariff (FiT) – Micro to Medium Scale Generation
� 1st April 2010 - AD, Hydro, Micro CHP, Solar PV, Wind
� Designed to encourage the adoption of renewable energy sources
� For projects sub 5 megawatts (MW) in generating capacity
� FiT means smaller scale schemes are also viable despite higher capital costs per MW installed
� Has led to more property owners developing their own projects
� Guarantees a fixed payment per kilowatt hour (kWh) generated for20 years, apart from solar pv which is 25 years, export tariff too.
Project exampleswe will look at today:
� Wind – Commercial, medium, micro
� Solar pv
� Anaerobic Digestion Plant
� Hydropower
Wind - Commercial Scale
� 100m -135m tall to the tip of the blades
� 2-3MW per turbine
� Wind farms and merchant sites
� Developers and large companies
� ROC’s
Wind - Medium Scale
� 40 – 60m tall
� 100kW – 500kW
� Located at farms, schools, companies
� Developers, local authorities individuals
� Suitable for the Feed-in Tariff
Micro wind
� Gaia 11kW - 18m to hub
� Less than 100 kW
� Agricultural and business use.
� Suitable for individuals and small companies
� Qualify for Feed in Tariff
� Fewer planning restrictions than larger turbines
Wind Energy - site selection
� Wind speed
� Proximity to Residential properties: noise and shadow flicker
� Aviation and Radar
� Microwave links from telecom sites
� Landscape designations
� Historical features
� Grid capacity and length of connection
� Access costs
Constraint MappingNote: Map has Client’s approval for
Carter Jonas use in PR
Wind Energy: Feed-in Tariff rates
Energy Source Scale
Generati
on TariffDuration
(p/kWh)[
A] (years)
Wind ≤1.5kW 34.5 20
Wind >1.5 - 15kW 26.7 20
Wind >15 - 100kW 24.1 20
Wind >100 - 500kW 18.8 20
Wind>500kW -1.5MW 9.4 20
Wind >1.5MW - 5MW 4.5 20
Turbine Options – examples of micro/medium
� Gaia 11kW 21m £60k
� Endurance 50kW
� WES 18 80kW
� Northwind 100 100kW
� WES 30 250kW
� Vergnet 275 275kW
� Enercon E-33 330kW 67m £760k
� Note: E-33 is IEC 61400-1 Certified (European engineering
standard)
Micro Windexample Gaia 11kW example at 5.5 m/s
� Generation
� Estimated annual electricity production (MWh) 29.8716
� Wholesale electricity price (MWh) £30.00
� Feed in Tariff £267.00� LEC Price £4.70
� Estimated present annual revenue £9,012
� Estimated present operating margin £8,564
� Estimated Pre Construction Costs
� Planning £3,000� Technical design (inc Met Mast)
£1,000
� Appeal (if required) £0� Ecological Assessments £0� Grid Studies £0
� Total £4,000
� Estimated Construction Costs
� Grid Connection £2,200� Turbine cost £50,000� Infrastructure £3,800
� Total £56,000
� Return � Straight Return 14.3%
Medium Wind Enercon E-33 330kW example at 6.4 m/s
� Generation
� Estimated annual electricity production (MWh) 621.522
� Wholesale electricity price (MWh) £30.00
� Feed in Tariff £188.00� LEC Price £4.70
� Estimated present annual revenue £138,413
� Estimated present operating margin £133,752
� Estimated Pre Construction Costs
� Planning £20,000� Technical design (inc Met Mast)
£25,000
� Appeal (if required) £0� Ecological Assessments £15,000� Grid Studies £7,500
� Total £67,500
� Estimated Construction Costs
� Grid Connection £90,000� Turbine cost £500,000 � Infrastructure
incl foundations £102,500� Total £692,500
� Return � Straight Return 17.6%
Solar Photovoltaics
� Solar PV uses semi-conductor technology to convert solar irradiation in to DC electrical current
� Established technology but expensive when compared to conventional sources
� Feed-in Tariff support has led to a viable investment option sub 50kW
Feed in Tariff Rates – Solar PVSubject to FAST TRACK REVIEW
Energy Source Scale
Generation Tariff
Duration
(p/kWh)[A] (years)
Solar PV ≤4 kW New 36.1 25
Solar PV ≤4 kW Retrofit 41.3 25
Solar PV >4 - 10kW 36.1 25
Solar PV >100 - 500kW 29.3 25
Solar PV>100kW -5MW 29.3 25
Solar PV Standalone 29.3 25
* 9% annual digression of all rates for installations commissioned after March 31st 2012
Solar pv – fast track potential rates……?
� Scale Existing FiT (pence/kWh) Duration (years)
Solar PV>10 - 100kW 31.4 25Solar PV>100kW - 5MW 29.3 25Solar PV Stand-alone 29.3 25
� Scale Possible FiT (pence/kWh) Duration (years)
Solar PV>50kW - ≤150kW 19 25Solar PV>150kW - ≤250kW 15 25Solar PV>250kW - ≤5MW 8.5 25
Solar pv Developers v DECC – Litigation….
Rooftop Array requirements
� South facing roof
� Load bearing capacity of around 15kg/sqm
� Preferably outside of visually sensitive locations
such as conservation areas
� Tiled/composite sheet roofs are easier to fix
panels to though it is possible on fibre cement
� Adequate on site transformer capacity – ideally
50 kVa or larger
� Away from potential shading obstacles such as
trees (3.5 times height)
� Planning permission will usually be required
� Summer on site electricity demand ideal
Approximately 7.5 sq m of usable roof space required per kWp
Solar pv rooftop array returnsExample 8kW Array on 72 sq m usable roof
� Generation
� Estimated annual electricity production (kWh) 7,120
� Electricity price saving (kWh) £0.10
� Feed in Tariff £0.361� Estimated present annual revenue
£3,282
� Estimated present operating margin £3,182
� Estimated Pre Construction Costs � Planning £500
� Technical design £1,000� Appeal (if required) £0� Ecological Assessments £0
� Grid Studies £0� Total £1,500
� Estimated Construction Costs
� Grid Connection £0� Array components £28,000 � Infrastructure £0
� Total £28,000
� Return � Straight Return 10.8%
* This model assumes all of the electricity is used on site, south facing, 20 degree pitch
Ground Mounted Arrays – troubled times!
� Solar parks or farms
� Commercial scale >500kW
� 3ha – 15ha of land take
� Flat or south facing and well screened
� 11kv line or 33kv substation required
� Most developers seeking 3MW+ near 33kv infrastructure
� Option and lease market on hold
� Rents £1000 - £2000 per acre RPI linked for 25 year term
Ground Mounted ArrayExample of projected returns 5MW Scheme (12ha)� Generation
� Estimated annual electricity production (kWh) 4,860,000
� Wholesale Export price (kWh) £0.03
� Feed in Tariff £0.293 (pre review rate)
� LEC Price £0.00496
� Estimated present annual revenue £1,591,542
� Estimated present operating margin £1,422,347
� Estimated Pre Construction Costs
� Planning £40,000� Technical design £15,000
� Appeal (if required) £0� Ecological Assessments £10,000� Grid Studies £10,000
� Total £75,000
� Estimated Construction Costs
� Grid Connection £600,000� Array components £10,214,571� Infrastructure £805,000
� Total £11,619,571
� Return � Straight Return 12.2% (pre review
rate)
Anaerobic Digestion – how does AD work?
Courtesy of Biogas Nord UK
AD key requirements and output
� Regular and reliable source of substrate
� Sufficient land to receive digestate
� Access to a good road network
� Accessible electrical grid connection
� Upwards of 10% return on successful plants
� Electricity sales
� ROC OR FiT support
� Gate fees
� Nitrogen benefits
Hydropower 96 kW example
� A “low head” scheme located in North Wales
� The proposed scheme is to be located at the upper of multiple weirs with a 2.5m head feeding two Archimedes screw turbines side by side
� Recommendation from the Environment Agency secured for 70% of the water above hands off flow for winter months and 50% for thesummer months
� The full load output of the turbine will be 96kW
HydropowerExample of projected returns from 96kW example� Generation
� Estimated annual electricity production (kWh) 292,231
� Wholesale Export price (kWh) £0.03
� Feed in Tariff £0.178� Estimated annual revenue £60,784
� Estimated present operating margin £52,784
� Estimated Pre Construction Costs � Planning & licensing £10,000� Technical design £5,000
� Appeal (if required) £0� Ecological Assessments £5,000
� Grid Studies £2,000� Total £22,000
� Estimated Construction Costs
� Grid Connection £92,700� Mechanical Hydro £90,710� Civil Hydro £122,490
� Total £305,900
� Return � Straight Return 16.1%
FiT review
� Confirmed at the Spending Review, the FiT review will determine how the efficiency of FITs will be improved to deliver £40 million of savings, around 10%, in 2014/15
� The review is in 2 phases:
April 2012 - comprehensive and as set out when the FIT scheme started, will consider all aspects of the scheme
Current fast track review - large scale solar pv and AD this has a 6 May deadline for consultation with 1 August 2011 implementation
Forthcoming Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)
� Final details of the RHI announced in March by DECC� Commence July 2011� Support for a range of technologies and fuel uses including solid and
gaseous biomass, solar thermal, ground and water source heat-pumps, on-site biogas, deep geothermal, energy from waste and injection ofbiomethane into the grid
� RHI will have scheduled 4 yearly reviews starting in 2014 and being implemented in 2015!?
� Phased implementation� Phase 1 - targeting large emitters in the non domestic sector which will
include the industrial and commercial sectors, not for profit organisations and communities
� As part of the first phase the Government will also introduce the Renewable Heat Premium Payments (RHPP) in July 2011 for the domestic sector, having ring fenced £15M which they will use to make premium payments to households who install renewable heating
� Phase 2 of the RHI will include long-term support for the domestic sector which will be introduced in 2012
How Carter Jonas can assist
� Initial site assessments/screening (WindPro, HyrdaA,GIS)
� Feasibility studies
� Financial Modelling
� Advice on equipment and procurement
� Initial grid investigations and negotiations, aviation consultation
� Planning
� Procurement
� Valuation/due diligence/brokerage
Thank you for your time
Any questions?
If you would like to receive any of our corporate literature, including Services Brochure, Energy Index, Newsletters and e-briefings please contact:
alice.jordan@carterjonas.co.uk