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Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09Johan van den BergSANTAM AGRICULTURE
RSA: Rainfall (mm) for the period 1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008
RSA: Rainfall (July 07 – June 08) expressed as % of long term average rainfall
RSA: Rainfall expressed as % of long term average 1 November to 31 March
La Nina
80-100%100-120%120-140%140-160%
La Nina (2007/08)
El Nino
RSA: Rainfall expressed as % of long term average 1 November to 31 March
60-70%70-80%
80-90%90-100%
100-110%110-120%
El Nino (2006/07)
Neutral (2008/09)
Favourable for hurricane development
Nino regions
Nino3.4
Average
El Nino
La Nina
DryWet
Wet Dry
2007/08
Tropical cyclone development
H
L
Cyclone
Water = 10-12oC Water = 18-28oC
Tropical cyclone
?
?
Probability (%) for receiving at least median rainfall
Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09
Individual localities
Oc t Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Grootfontein Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days
GoodGood
Dry
Above normal
Below normal
2008/09
Average
Oc t Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Vryburg: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days
Above normal
Below normal
2008/09
Average
Oc t Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Clarens (Free State) : Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days
Above normal
Below normal
2008/09
Average
Oc t Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Delmas: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days
Above normal
Below normal
2008/09
Average
Oc t Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr
Months
0
10
20
30
40
50
Pro
bability
(%)
Prieska: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days
Above normal
Below normal
2008/09
Average
Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar A pr Mei
Months
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Rustenburg: Probability (%) for at least 20mm per 10 day
2008/09
Average
Above normal
Below normal
Historic rainfall
RSA: Rainfall deviation from average (mm)
Dry Wet WetDry Dry
Rai
nfa
ll d
evia
tio
n f
rom
ave
rag
e (m
m)
Seasons
Dry Wet WetDry Dry
Rai
nfa
ll d
evia
tio
n f
rom
ave
rag
e (m
m)
Seasons
Free State: Rainfall deviation from average (mm)
Dry Wet WetDry Dry
Rai
nfa
ll d
evia
tio
n f
rom
ave
rag
e (m
m)
Seasons
North West: Rainfall deviation from average (mm)
Dry Wet WetDry Dry
Mpumalanga: Rainfall deviation from average (mm)R
ain
fall
dev
iati
on
fro
m a
vera
ge
(mm
)
Seasons
Climate change
1918-27 1928-37 1938-47 1948-57 1958-67 1968-77 1978-87 1988-97 1998-07
Dec ades
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Avera
ge ra
infa
ll (mm
)
Villiers: Average 12 month rainfall total per decade (mm)
1918-27 1928-37 1938-47 1948-57 1958-67 1968-77 1978-87 1988-97 1998-07
Dec ades
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Rain
fall (m
m)
Ottosdal: Average 12 month rainfall total per decade (mm)
Climate change
Correlation of annual rainfall totals vs time
(rainfall 1960-2006)
Maize Production
Soil moisture conditions:
Difference 2008 vs 2007 (mm)
Method:
Yield simulation (Using a crop growth model) to generate historic yields
• Use current inputs
• Use historic climate data
• Use soil inputs
• Determine the production risk of current production systems in terms of historic climate data or climate history
What is the production risk and the risk for not reaching margins like recovery of input cost
1951/5
2
1959/6
0
1969/7
0
1979/8
0
1989/9
0
1999/0
0
2007/0
8
Seas ons
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Yie
ld (k
g/h
a)
Lichtenburg: Simulated yields (kg/ha) over time
• Red: Yields not higher than long term average (target yield)
• Blue: Target yield according to climate for each specific season (perfect world)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Simulated y ie lds (s orted) kg/ha
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Lichtenburg: Cumulative distribution of yields over time (57 years)
Interpretation: Probability (%) for not reaching certain yields
20% of years not reaching 2000kg/ha
What is the risk for not recovering input cost?
Assumption
• Input cost between R1400 (west) and R1700(east) per hectare
Input cost = fertilizer, fuel, seed, weed- and pesticides, insurance, labour.
• For Lichtenburg: R1400 per ton for target yield of 3.5 t/ha = R4900 per ha
1951/5
2
1959/6
0
1969/7
0
1979/8
0
1989/9
0
1999/0
0
2007/0
8
Seas ons
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Marg
ins (R
/ha)
Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time
Maize price (farm gate) = R1700/ton
-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
Margin (R/ha)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time
28% of years in loss situation
Maize price (farm gate) = R1700/ton
-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Margin (R/ha)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time
Maize price (farm gate) = R2000/ton
-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Margin (R/ha)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pro
bability
(%)
Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time
Maize price (farm gate) = R2300/ton
Profitability over time
Price R1700 R2000 R3000
Margin
R/ha
R457 R1 402 R2 348
Margin (R/ha)
(Total 57 years)
R26 066 R79 954 R133 842
Risk for not recovering input cost
R1700/ton maize price
Maize area
Risk for not recovering input cost
R2000/ton maize price
Maize area
1986/8
7
1987/8
8
1988/8
9
1989/9
0
1990/9
1
1991/9
2
1992/9
3
1993/9
4
1994/9
5
1995/9
6
1996/9
7
1997/9
8
1998/9
9
1999/0
0
2000/0
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
2007/0
8
Seas ons
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
Are
a (m
illion h
a)
Area
Area trend
RSA Maize area planted
1986/8
7
1987/8
8
1988/8
9
1989/9
0
1990/9
1
1991/9
2
1992/9
3
1993/9
4
1994/9
5
1995/9
6
1996/9
7
1997/9
8
1998/9
9
1999/0
0
2000/0
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
2007/0
8
Seas ons
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Yie
ld (t/h
a)
Yield
Yield trend
RSA Maize yields
1979/801981/82
1983/841985/86
1987/881989/90
1991/921993/94
1995/961997/98
1999/002001/02
2003/042005/06
2007/08
Y ears
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Million tons/ha
RSA area planted (million ha)
Imports (million tons)
RSA Wheat
Areas will decline annually because new areas will become
marginal (non-profitable)
Food security ?
Soil potential for Southern Africa
Rainfall (mm) for Africa
Summary
1. Neutral to slight La Nina expected
2. Rainfall – normal to above normal
3. Late start of rainfall season but above normal rainfall for November expected
4. Midsummer dry spell expected (Dec/Jan)
5. Crop production under pressure – Threat to food security over the medium to long term
6. Eastern production areas may suffer to plant within planting window
http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/
Thanks
Contact Detail:
Johan van den Berg
Product Development: Santam Agriculture
051 407 3089
082 3744692
Johan.vandenberg@santam.co.za