Climate Basics

Marist College Summer Institute

Libby Murphy

Hudson River Estuary Program/Cornell WRI

NYS Department of Environmental Conservation

Outline• The Hudson River Estuary Program

• My background

• Basics of climate science

• Climate change in New York

• Climate mitigation

• Climate adaptation

• Field trip!

Hudson River Estuary Program

Core Mission

• Ensure clean water

• Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their

habitats

• Provide water recreation and river access

• Adapt to climate change

• Conserve world-famous scenery

How I got here

• Hudson Valley native

• M.S. Climate Science and Policy, Bard College (2014)

• M.B.A. in Sustainability, Bard College (2014)

• B.A., Geology, Vassar College (2008)

• Compton Mentor Fellow

• Theodore Gordon Flyfisher Scholar

• Adolph Sutro Fellow

• Work in climate outreach, renewable energy start ups

Basics of climate science

What is climate?

“You dress for the weather and build a house for the climate”

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”

The Earth’s Climate System

• Made up of 5 “spheres”

How do we know?

• Greenland ice cores, detailed 800K year record of CO2

• Instrumental record since 1850

Carbon Cycle Basics

NASA

Difference between a planet with and one without a carbon cycle

Rock reservoir 50 x 106 Gt*

Limestone 40 x 106

Organic carbon in sedimentary rocks 10 x 106

Fossil fuels 4.7 x 103

(coal = 4.0 x 103)

Marine carbonate sediments 2.5 x 103

World ocean 40 x 103

Dissolved inorganic carbon 39 x 103

Dissolved organic carbon 0.66 x 103

Organic carbon in soils and terrestrial sediments 1.6 x 103

Organic carbon in permafrost 0.9 x 103

Atmospheric CO2 0.73 x 103

Living biomass 0.66 x 103

*Gt = gigatons = 109 metric tons

Sizes of the

carbon

reservoirs

Sources: Kump et al., 2004; Zimov et al., 2006; others

long-term

short-term

The long- and short-term carbon cycles

ocean

40,000 Gt C

118 Gt C/yr

121 Gt C/yr

101 Gt C/yr

97 Gt C/yr

living things

660 Gt C

soils/sediments

1600 Gt C

permafrost

900 Gt C

atmosphere

730 Gt C

Short-term carbon cycle

The surface reservoirs

Enter industrial revolution

ocean

40,000 Gt C

118 Gt C/yr

121 Gt C/yr

101 Gt C/yr

97 Gt C/yr

living things

660 Gt C

soils/sediments

1600 Gt C

permafrost

900 Gt C

atmosphere

730 Gt C

fossil fuels

4700 Gt C

sedimentary rocks

50 million Gt C

8.0 Gt C/yr

Long-term cycle

deep reservoirsThe surface reservoirs

one-way flow from long- to short-term reservoirs

The Keeling curve

Mauna Loa record

Keeling’s Curve

The Greenhouse Effect

A time of rapid Climate Change?

We choose our future

For more info

Climate change in New York

Changes to our climate

Increasing temperatures

•Rising sea level

•Changing precipitation patterns

Increasing temperatures

Since 1970:

•Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F

•US annual average temp. up 1.8°F

•New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F

•New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F

y = 0.026x - 1.346R² = 0.374

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Annual mean temperature in Poughkeepsie has been increasing

Increasing temperatures

Future around Marist:

Sea level riseHistoric:

• 15” in NY Harbor in the past 150 years

Changing precipitation patterns

• 74% Increase in heavy downpours between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009

• More variability and volatility

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Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has become more variable

So how will this affect us?

Heat waves

Short-term drought

Flooding

Heat waves

Short-term drought

• Higher temperatures, increased evaporation

• Reduction in steady rain and snow precipitation

Flooding

• Intense precipitation

• Sea-level rise

• Intense storms

What is the “100-year” flood?

• FEMA, FIRMs

• 1% probability = 100 yr

• 10% = 10 year

• Over 30 years there is a 30% chance of a 100-yr flood

Sea Level Rise Mapper by Scenic Hudson

http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper

Climate mitigation

What is climate mitigation?

• Mitigation = reduce the severity of an issue/problem

• Climate mitigation = reduce the severity of climate change

• Reducing the causes of climate change

• Some definitions: efficient, renewable, low-impact, carbon-neutral, green buildings

How?

• Energy/heat, transportation, buildings

• Renewable energy, efficient transportation, green buildings

Climate adaptation

What is climate adaptation?

• Adaptation= to adapt to new conditions

• Climate adaptation= to adapt to the impacts of climate change

• Reducing the impacts of climate change

• Some definitions: resilience, accommodate, fortify, retreat

Resilience

Flooding adaptation

Current situation

Flooding Adaptation Strategies•Fortify

•Accommodate

•Strategically Relocate

Fortify

Levee, New Orleans, LA Seawall, Beacon, NY

Elevated structures with flood

gates, Hamburg, Germany

Accommodate

Floodable park concept, NYC

Steelhouse restaurant, Kingston, NY

Local example of accommodation

Strategic Relocation

Natural shoreline with gazebo, Cold

SpringWetland with walkway

concept, Toronto, Canada

Simulations

Kingston waterfront low tide

E Strand in Kingston

Kingston waterfrontSimulation: elevated sea level (4’) at low tide

4’ of Sea Level Rise

Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), armored protection

Example of Fortify

Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings

Example of Accommodate

Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), strategic retreat

Example of Strategic Relocation