CLIMATE CHANGE AND

ECONOMIC GROWTHArttu, Atte, Ekaterina, Régis

ECONOMIC GROWTH

Increase in a country's productive capacity, measured by comparing annual gross domestic product (GDP).

Main causes of economic growth:

● Increase in capital stock● Technology advances● Quality of life

improvements

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg8

The Stern Report, executive summary

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/10/25/an-economic-theory-of-limited-oil-supply/comment-page-2/

ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES

More consumption● More used resources● More pollution● Direct effect on ecological systems

Current economic growth does not take costs of environment into account

● Actual growth would be less● Redefining Progress: Genuine Progress Indicator GPI

ECONOMIC GROWTH AT THE

EXPENSE OF THE CLIMATE

● Population growth vs. living standards● We want more● Debt

The U.S. from 1970 – today:

● GDP per capita: +70%● GPI: +13%

WHY DO WE NEED

ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Is economic growth

SUSTAINABLE?

A research published in 1972

by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III (MIT)

for the think tank Club of Rome

with computer simulation program World3

about the consequences of exponential economic and population growth with finite resource supplies

LIMITS TO

GROWTH

World3 model based on System Dynamics

= the method for analysis of the dynamic behavior

of interconnected complex systems

● various set of parameters (either totals or averages output per capita)

● feedbacks (+) and (-)● delays in the signals and respond● sub-systems● non-linear relations● variables:

○ global population○ crude birth & death rates○ services, food & industrial output

per capita○ non-renewable resources○ pollution (all kind of)

SYSTEM DYNAMICS

in doubling the resources but keeping same usage rate doesn’t double the resource life but just extend it insignificantly (in this scenario just about on average 130 years)

DOUBLE KNOWN

AVAILABILITY

TECHNOLOGY & LIMITS

“...Our attempts to use even the most optimistic estimates of the benefits of technology in the model did not prevent the ultimate decline of population and industry, and in fact did not in any case postpone the collapse beyond the year 2100.”

“We have shown that in the world model the application of technology to apparent problems of resource depletion or pollution or food shortage has

no impact on the essential problem, which is exponential growth in a finite and

complex system...

Limits to Growth 1972

NO “SILVER BULLET”

WE ARE HERE TODAY

WORLD3 ON

CO2 CONCENTRATION

Is the answer

DECOUPLING?

This means CO2 emissions fade out and other energy sources take over

THE CURRENT PLAN

Global GHG abatement curve beyond business-as-usual - 2030

TECHNOLOGY

BEHAVIOR

● Taxation (carbon tax)● Legislation● Subsidies● Direct investment● Education● Internal and international deals● International action

GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT TO

LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS,BEHAVIOR AND INNOVATION

NO,

WAIT

G8 and OECD material consumption versus GDP

Relative changes in total resource use (MF and DMC) and GDP-PPP-2005 between 1990 and 2008http://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6271.full

PATHWAYS TO

SUSTAINABILITY

DEFINE

PROSPERITY!

https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/spirit-level

REDEFINING PROSPERITY 1:

GROWTH AT THE BOTTOM

REDEFINING PROSPERITY 2:

VALUES● materialistic values

are as damaging to the environment as to people

● status competition creates “race to the bottom”

REDEFINING PROSPERITY 2:

VALUES ● Resilient Communities● Cooperatives● Grassroots Finance● City Policies● Community Currencies● Community Renewable Energy● Rethinking Home● Work in the New Economy

http://www.theselc.org/programs

REDEFINING PROSPERITY 3:

RELATIVEWEALTH

https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk

THE ENDIS NEAR

KIITOS