Climate change and rising seas

Environmental Science21 October 2009Donald Winslow

Readings:Withgott & Brennan 2009 Essential Environment,

3rd ed., Ch 14 pp 303-325

Lester Brown, Plan B 3.0, www.earth-policy.orgChapter 3

Climate change

Milankovitch cycles

CO2 and temperature

Anthropogenic climate change

CO2 emissions

CH4 emissions

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Remedies

Milankovitch cycles

Shape of Earth's orbit

Tilt of axis

Wobble

CO2 and temperature

http://www.ipcc.ch

Anthropogenic climate changeEvidence & effects

Temperature, CO2, melting ice, rising seas

Hurricanes

Species distributions

Pronounced warming at higher latititudes

Increases in photosynthesis from increased CO2

Decreases in photosynthesis from increased T

Civilization & the New World

Readings from Lester Brown 2008. Plan B 3.0; Chapter 3

http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/index.htm

Features of Plan B

Electronic version available as pdf files References Data sets as xls files “Cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2020”

Rising temperatures & rising seas

Effects of rising temperature Crop yield Reservoirs in the sky Melting ice & rising seas Destructive storms Cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2020

Sea level rise

IPCC estimate 18-59 cm by 2100 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change www.ipcc.ch Estimate based on data thru 2006

Considering 2007 melting, maybe 200 cm After Greenland & West Antarctic Ice Sheet

melt: 700-1200 cm

Arctic ice on 16 September 2008

Photo by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, via Reuters

EPA study of sea level rise

http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/slrmaps.html

Gulf of Mexico after 12 m rise in sea level

http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=23.3624,-85.4297&z=12&m=12

Alex@firetree in the UK

Montane glacial melt

Implications for agriculture Himalayas & Tibetan Plateau

Feed all major rivers of China & India Necessary for rice production

Remedies

Emission reduction Carbon sequestration Increasing albedo Adapting to change