Climate Change Basics

A brief introductionUpdated October 2015

In the 1800s scientists discovered 1. Burning releases Carbon Dioxide - CO2

2. Carbon Dioxide traps heat energy3. Human use of fossil fuels will eventually

change the climate

Fossil Fuels are COAL, OIL (including gasoline) and NATURAL GASUse of any of these increases the CO2 in the air

Early Science

The Greenhouse Effect Gases added by humans are acting like a blanket around the earth.

The main gases are Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Helpful short video

How Global Warming Works

This recent data from NOAA shows a steady temp. rise since 1900

recentre

The Keeling CurveStarted by Charles Keeling in 1960 shows steady rise of CO2 in the last 50 years. In 1800 CO2 was 280 ppm.In 2015 it’s still going steeply up.

Temperature and CO2 rose in sync throughout the 20th century

RATE OF CHANGE

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Arctic Sea Ice

Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum each September. September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 13.3 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. The graph shows the average monthly Arctic sea ice extent in September since 1979, derived from satellite observations. The 2012 extent is the lowest in the satellite record.

Melting Glaciers

Kilimanjaro, Africa

Muir Glacier, Alaska

All over the world glaciers are melting at alarming rates

These are just two examples

CO2 now higher than any time in the past 400,000 years.Passed 400 in 2015

Tiny variations in the earth’s orbit around the sun were analysed by Milankovitch.These are well studied long term effects. Currently this should be causing slight cooling.

GHG - Greenhouse gases (mostly CO2 and Methane)

North America and Western Europe have contributed hugely more than their share.

Data is for 1800-1988

Top Historical GHG Producers

Region Total CO2 %

North America 29.7

Western Europe

16.6

USSR 12.5

China 6.0

Eastern Europe 4.8

FACT: Average global temperatures increased by ~ 1 degree Celsius over the 20th cent

FACT: The United States contains 5 percent of the world's population, but contributes 22

percent of the world's carbon emissions.

FACT: 15 percent of carbon emissions come from deforestation and land use change.

FACT: The Golden Toad (Bufo periglenes) is thought to be the first species to go extinct

because of climate change.

FACT: Personal cars and trucks in the USA emit 20 percent of our carbon emissions.

FACT: Air conditioning and heating

account for almost half of electricity use in the average American homes.

FACT: Climate change is linked to stronger hurricanes, more drought and

increased coral deaths from bleaching.

FACT: Climate change is linked to an increase in disease-carrying pests that lead to spread

of diseases such as dengue fever, malaria, lyme disease and West Nile virus.

THE FACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE The Nature Conservancy

The Global AVERAGE was the warmest ever - despite cold on the US east coastNOAA map

Warmest Winter 2014/5

These indicators are strong proof that the changes are human caused and not due to natural variations in the sun.

The monster problem is that CO2 will stay in the air for far more than 100 years. So even if we stop producing it instantly, the heating effects will continue to get WORSE for a long time. That’s why we need to ACT NOW!

Why do a few degrees matter?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established in 1988 by the UN.It’s objective is to collect scientific data and report to governments.Reports issued from 1990 to 2014 became increasingly sure the problems were caused by humans and getting much worse

What is the IPCC?

The future depends on what WE do now.Predictions are based on sophisticated computer models with differing possibilities RCP 2.5 - requires actual CO2 removal RCP 4.5 - probable best caseRCP 6.5 - in betweenRCP 8.5 - continuing present course

IPCC Predictions

Future Temperatures - IPCC

What we do now WILL make a difference

1. Warmer temperatures - heat waves and drought

2. Stronger storms - Hurricane Sandy , Typhoon Hagupit

3. Rising sea level - Many cities threatened. In Miami the water supply will soon be salty

4. Widespread social disruption ? Wars? 5. Spread of tropical diseases6. Destruction to coral reefs and other ecosystem

damages7. Ocean Acidification is threatening basic food

webs

Effects of Climate Change

City of Santa Cruz City Parking Lot North Sea wind farm

Switching to renewable energy will help

What to do?

1.Stronger economy2.More jobs3.Greater National Security4.Cleaner environment

Effects of Changing to a Renewable Economy NOW

FIGHT to KEEP the OIL IN THE GROUND &

1. Divestment of oil stocks by pension funds and others

2. Carbon tax - Fee and Dividend - Citizens Climate Lobby

3. Install Solar - it’s ZERO cost now

4. Drive less or use a solar powered Electric car

5. Walk, bike or carpool

6. Talk to people

7. Vote for people planning to deal with the problem.

What else can we do?

Join 350.org www.350santacuz.org

Pledge for Climate Mobilizationwww.theclimatemobilization.org

Join Santa Cruz Climate Action NetworkSCruzClimAct.pbworks.com

What else can we do? Part 2

I CALL ON THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT TO:

1. Immediately commence a social and economic mobilization to restore a climate that is safe, stable, and supportive of human civilization. This heroic campaign shall be carried out on the scale of the American World War II home front mobilization, and will require hard work and shared sacrifice from all Americans.2. Reduce our country’s net greenhouse gas emissions 100 percent by 2025 and implement far-reaching measures to remove greenhouse gases from the 3. Enlist tens of millions of Americans in efforts to rapidly expand our carbon-neutral energy and agricultural systems, conduct groundbreaking research, and implement large-scale adaptation measures. As in WWII, full employment will be achieved.

THE PLEDGE TO MOBILIZE (extract)

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/16/3612351/noaa-nasa-2014-hottest-year-on-record/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

other wikipedia articles

Presentation at UCSC by DR Richard Alley

Resources