Climate change, ecotoxicology and flood resiliency in New York

transcript

Climate change, ecotoxicology and flood

resilience in New York NYU Ecotoxicology Class

November 11, 2014

Libby Murphy

NYS Department of Environmental Conserva5on

Hudson River Estuary Program

Core Mission •  Ensure clean water

•  Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their habitats

•  Provide water recrea5on and river access

•  Adapt to climate change

•  Conserve world-‐famous scenery

Roadmap

• Climate science basics • Climate change in NY • Ecotoxicology and flooding • Communities working towards resiliency •  Flood adaptation • How to get involved

Basics of climate science

What is climate?

•  Longer-term average weather • Part of larger planetary system •  “You dress for the weather and build a house for the

climate” •  “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”

The Climate System & GH Effect

What does climate change mean?

Why is the climate changing?

How do we know?

• Greenland ice cores, detailed 800K year record of CO2 •  Instrumental record since 1850 • Rapid warming since 1910

What are the impacts of climate change?

Climate change in New York

Changes to our climate

Increasing temperatures

• Rising sea level • Changing precipitation patterns

Since 1970:

• Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F

• US annual average temp. up 1.8°F

• New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F

• New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F

y = 0.0262x -‐ 1.346 R² = 0.37491

ean Tempe

rature (F)

Annual mean temperature in Poughkeepsie has been increasing

Sea level rise Historic: • 15” in NY Harbor in the past 150 years

Changing precipitation patterns • 74% Increase in heavy downpours between

1950-1979 and 1980-2009 • More variability and volatility

65 1895

al Precipita8o

Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has become more variable

So how will this affect us?

Ø Heat waves

Ø Short-term drought

Ø Flooding

Heat waves

Short-term drought •  Higher temperatures,

increased evapora5on

•  Reduc5on in steady rain and snow precipita5on

Flooding •  Intense precipita5on

•  Sea-‐level rise

•  Intense storms

Sea Level Rise Mapper by Scenic Hudson

h\p://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper

HRECOS

Ecotoxicology

• Oil spills •  Sediment • Ecosystem • WWTP • Wetland migration

We need to productively adapt to our changing climate

• Climate adaptation = reducing the effects of climate

change

• Ecologically enhanced and natural solutions provide additional benefits

Resilience

Flooding adaptation

Flooding Adaptation Strategies

• Fortify

• Accommodate

• Strategically Relocate

Fortify

Levee, New Orleans, LA Seawall, Beacon, NY

Elevated structures with flood gates, Hamburg, Germany

Accommodate

Floodable park concept, NYC

Riverwalk Park, Tarrytown

Accommodate: Use green infrastructure to reduce water energy

Brooklyn Bridge Park

Steelhouse restaurant, Kingston, NY

Local example of accommodation

Strategic Relocation

Natural shoreline with gazebo, Cold Spring

Wetland with walkway concept, Toronto, Canada

Current Marsh Zone

Future Marsh Zone

Redesign: Win-Win Engineering

•  lower cost

•  maintains ecosystem services

•  adapts to sea level rise

Current situation

Sandy and Irene: two different storms

•  Irene: extreme rain event

• Sandy: extreme storm surge at height of spring

• The Perfect Storm? Irene plus Sandy

Hurricane Irene (2011) Hurricane Sandy (2012)

Kingston waterfront low 8de

E Strand in Kingston

Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (4’) at low 8de

4’ of Sea Level Rise

Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (low 8de), armored protec8on

Example of Fortify

Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (low 8de), vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings

Example of Accommodate

Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (low 8de), strategic retreat

Example of Strategic Relocation

Participatory Mapping

Year 2100, With High Sea Level Rise and a 100-‐year Storm 1% Probability of Occurrence in Any Given Year Total Damage for this Event: $39.9 Million Damage to Wastewater Treatment Plant: $27.6 Million •  Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise •  Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge

Cumula8ve Expected Damages by 2100 With High Sea Level Rise = $126 Million

100 Year Storm in 2060

Buildings Damaged by Storm Surge from this Single Event (Height of Bar indicates rela5ve damage amount) Buildings Permanently Inundated due to Sea Level Rise by this Year, if No Ac5on is Taken Extent of Flooding from this Event

COAST: cost benefit tool

You can get involved

• We need many policy makers, scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and much more

• We need people involved in local government

• We need people making smart decisions day to day

•  The global average temp is rising • Climate change is the regional and local impacts • Our climate is changing more rapidly in NY •  Flooding is serious risk to Hudson River communities •  Flooding poses eco toxicology risks • Adapting to flooding and becoming resilient is our goal • Communities are already stepping up as leaders • You can get involved

Questions? Thank you. Libby Murphy Hudson River Estuary Program Phone: (845) 256-‐3016 Email: Elizabeth.murphy@dec.ny.gov

NYS Department of Environmental Conserva5on