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Climate Change in the South Caucasus
A Visual Synthesis
Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports.
This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has provided support for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the Mountain Partnership.
Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Printed on 100% recycled paper.
© Zoï Environment Network 2011
The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multi-stakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Eu-rope (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Cau-casus and Central Asia.
This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for edu-cational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Zoï Environment Network would appreciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose what so ever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the ENVSEC partner organizations and governments. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concern-ing the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a com-mercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperat-ing partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.
ConceptZurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett
CollagesNina Joerchjan
Maps and GraphicsManana Kurtubadze
Text and interviewsZurab Jincharadze
Design and LayoutManana Kurtubadze, Maria Libert
Contributors and IntervieweesRamaz Chitanava, Nickolai Denisov, Harald Egerer, Farda Imanov, Medea Inashvili, Alex Kirby, Nato Kutaladze, Hamlet Melkonyan, Maharram Mehtiyev, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Marina Pandoeva, Marina Shvangiradze, Vahagn Tonoyan, Emil Tsereteli, Asif Verdiyev, Benjamin Zakaryan.
2
The South Caucasus at a Glance6
Contents
Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Climate Change Mitigation30 Impacts of Climate Change
and Adaptation Measures40
Climate Change Trends and Scenarious in the Region18
3
ForewordCLIMATE ChAnGE In ThE CAuCASuS— A MyTh no LonGERIn Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punish-ment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle. In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat — close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s animals from the great floods. So much for mythology and religion, but strangely enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change: on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind, starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the po-tential impacts of climate change. As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beau-tiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the “normal” economic development of the region since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of climate change will not make the region more secure. With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to communicate the known facts of climate change in a well illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tra-dition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts. Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Cau-casian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts, it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture with some of this. We do however want to make the point that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth.
Otto SimonettDirector, Zoï Environment NetworkGeneva, January 2012
Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums
4
INDICATORS Armenia
Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections
Air temperature (last half century)
Precipitation and snow (last half century)
Desertification
Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards(1990–2009)
Melting ice (last half century)
Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100)
HealthInfectious and vector-borne diseases
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005
Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005
Policy instruments, actions and awareness
Climate observation and weather services(1990–2009)
increase, enchancement increase in some areasdecrease, reduction
Azerbaijan Georgia
Sources: Second National Communications ofArmenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009. 5
Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA
The South Caucasus at a Glance
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
Makhachkala
Grozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Sochi
Ganja Mingechevir
Sheki
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Van
Poti
metres4,0003,0002,0001,5001,000
500200
00Depression-500-1,000-1,500
Glaciers 100 km0
G
re a
t
C
au
c
a
s
u
s
Kazbek5 033
Shkhara5 068
Aragats4 090
Ararat5 165
Elbrus5 642
Le
ss
er
Ca
uc
as
us
ColchisPlain
Kura-ArasDepression
Talysh
Absheron
CaspianDepression
P o n t i c M o u n t a i n
s
A r m e n i a n
H i g h l a n d
R U S S I A NF E D E R A T I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Adjara
Abkhazia
NagornoKarabakh
Nakhchivan
CASPIANSEA
BLACKSEA
LakeSevan
Lake Van
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Tere
k
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokhi)
Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zdan
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
Lankaran
A Z
8 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
GEnERAL oVERVIEWThe South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe, between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and east-ern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome.
BLACKSEA
AZOVSEA
CASPIANSEA
GEORGIASOUTH
CAUCASUS
NORTH CAUCASUS
LEBANON
SYRIA IRAQCYPRUS
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
TURKEY
IRAN
UKRAINEKAZAKHSTAN
AZ
150 km0
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
Makhachkala
Grozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Sochi
Ganja Mingechevir
Sheki
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Van
Poti
metres4,0003,0002,0001,5001,000
500200
00Depression-500-1,000-1,500
Glaciers 100 km0
G
re a
t
C
au
c
a
s
u
s
Kazbek5 033
Shkhara5 068
Aragats4 090
Ararat5 165
Elbrus5 642
Le
ss
er
Ca
uc
as
us
ColchisPlain
Kura-ArasDepression
Talysh
Absheron
CaspianDepression
P o n t i c M o u n t a i n
s
A r m e n i a n
H i g h l a n d
R U S S I A NF E D E R A T I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Adjara
Abkhazia
NagornoKarabakh
Nakhchivan
CASPIANSEA
BLACKSEA
LakeSevan
Lake Van
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Tere
k
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokhi)
Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zdan
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
Lankaran
A Z
9The South Caucasus at a Glance
Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
MagasNalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
GanjaMingechevir
Sheki
GorisLachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Poti
100 km0Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; World Trade Press, 2007.
16.0°13.0°10.0°7.0°5.0°1.5°-1.0°
Temperature (°C)
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I AA Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N CASPIAN
SEABLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
LakeVan
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zd
an
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
Çoruh (Chorokhi)
A Z
GEoGRAphy AnD CLIMATEAlmost every climatic zone is represented in the South Caucasus except for savannas and tropical forests. To the North, the Great Caucasus range protects the region from the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime all over the region. Precipitation decreases from west to east and mountains generally receive higher amounts than low-lying areas. The
absolute maximum annual rainfall is 4,100 mm in south-west Georgia (Adjara), whilst the rainfall in southern Geor-gia, Armenia and western Azerbaijan varies between 300 and 800 mm per year. Temperature generally decreases as elevation rises. The highlands of the Lesser Caucasus mountains in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are marked by sharp temperature contrasts between summer and win-ter months due to a more continental climate.
10 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Average Annual Precipitation in the South Caucasus
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
MagasNalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
GanjaMingechevir
Sheki
GorisLachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Poti
100 km0Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
2,000 mm1,600 mm800 mm600 mm400 mm200 mmless than 200 mm
Precipitation
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I AA Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
CASPIANSEA
BLACKSEA
LakeSevan
Kura
Aras
Kura
Aras
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokhi)Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zd
an
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
LakeVan
Terek
A Z
The average annual temperature in Armenia is 5.5°C. The highest annual average temperature is 12–14°C. At alti-tudes above 2,500 m the average annual temperatures are below zero. The summer is temperate; in July the average temperature is about 16.7°C, and in Ararat valley it varies between 24–26°C. The average annual temperature at the Black Sea shore is 14–15°C, with extremes ranging from +45°C to -15°C.
The climate in the plains of East Georgia and most of Azer-baijan is dry : in the lowlands, it is dry subtropical, and in mountainous areas alpine. The average annual tempera-ture varies from 11 to 13°C in the plains, from 2 to 7°C in the mountains, and around 0°C in alpine zones. Depending on the altitude and remoteness from the Caspian Sea, climatic types in Azerbaijan vary from arid subtropical in the low-lands to temperate and cold in the high mountains.
11The South Caucasus at a Glance
CASPIANSEA
BLACKSEA
LakeSevan
Kura
Aras
Kura
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zdan
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
Terek
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
R U S S I A N
F E D E R A T I O NG E O R G I A
A R M E N I A A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
Makhachkala
Grozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Sochi
GanjaMingechevir
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Poti
Subtropical forests
Arid deserts and semi-deserts
Temperate forests
Steppes
Coniferous forests
Sub-alpine and alpine meadows
Glaciers
Floodplains and wetlands
Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008; CEO-Caucasus-2002; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
Ecosystems
100 km0
Sheki
Ter e k
A Z
12 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
CASPIANSEA
BLACKSEA
LakeSevan
Kura
Aras
Kura
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zdan
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
Terek
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
R U S S I A N
F E D E R A T I O NG E O R G I A
A R M E N I A A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
Makhachkala
Grozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Sochi
GanjaMingechevir
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Poti
Subtropical forests
Arid deserts and semi-deserts
Temperate forests
Steppes
Coniferous forests
Sub-alpine and alpine meadows
Glaciers
Floodplains and wetlands
Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008; CEO-Caucasus-2002; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
Ecosystems
100 km0
Sheki
Ter e k
A Z
ECoSySTEMSThe complex topography and diverse vegetation cover of the Cauca-sus is a main reason for an unusually large number of climatic zones and natural ecosystems on a relatively small piece of land like South Caucasus. The region ranges from the subtropical rainy type of forest of the south-east Black Sea coast to the high peaks of the Greater Caucasus, with their glaciers and snow caps, to the steppes and semi-deserts of the lowland east.
Debed river at Northern Armenia
Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan
13The South Caucasus at a Glance
Population dynamics in 1989–2010
0123456789
10
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Million
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010; World Bank statistics.
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
18% 23% 17% 19%
72% 71% 69% 70%
10% 7% 14% 10%
Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total
Population by age groups in 2010
65 and over
Rural
Urban
15–64
0–14
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
64% 54% 53% 57%
36% 46% 47% 43%
Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total
Urban and rural population in 2010
MAIn FIGuRESArmenia: Total Population 3.249 millions (2010). Total area 29,743 km². Population density 108.4 per km². Life expectancy 74 years. Net population migration -1.7 per 1,000 population.
Azerbaijan: Total Population 8.997 millions (2010). Total area 86,600 km². Population density 105.8 per km². Life expectancy 70 years. Net population migration -1.4 per 1,000 population.
Georgia: Total Population 4.436 millions (2010). Total area 69,700 km². Population density 68.1 per km². Life expectancy 72 years. Net population mi-gration -18.1 per 1,000 population.
14 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
Population in the South Caucasus
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
T U R K E Y
I R A N
Yerevan
GyumriAlaverdi
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Zugdidi
Akhaltsikhe
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
GanjaMingechevir
Sheki
GorisLachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi Adjara
Abkhazia
NagornoKarabakh
Nakhchivan
PotiCASPIAN
SEABLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
Lake Van
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zd
an
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
100 km0
Hrazdan Vagharshapat
Shirvan
1 dot = 500 inhabitants
Rural population, 2002
Urban population, 2009
Sources: CEO-Caucasus 2002; Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
2 millions
1 million300,000100,000–200,00050,000–100,000
Sumgayit
A Z
Little Cavemen from Gobustan, AZERBAIJAN
15The South Caucasus at a Glance
Industry47%
Agriculture22%
Services31%
Armenia
Industry61%
Agriculture6%
Services33%
Azerbaijan
Industry27%
Agriculture11%
Services62%
Georgia
Source: www.indexmundi.com
GDP by sectors in 2010
EConoMIC oVERVIEWFollowing the disintegration of the former Soviet Union the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia ex-perienced dramatic economic declines at the start of the 1990s. For example in Armenia, between 1990 and 1993, the average annual decrease in GDP was about 18%; In Azerbaijan GDP fell by an annual average of about 13%, while in Georgia, it declined by 70–75% from 1991 to 1994. However, the launching of economic reforms and the achievement of political stability by the second half of the
0
10
20
30
40
50
Million USD USD
Source: World Bank statistics. Source: UN statistics.
GDP in 1990–2010 GDP per capita in 1990–2010
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990s meant the economies started to revive and then grow rapidly. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, they grew at nearly 9% a year from 1997 to 2002. In these countries growth rates were even higher in 2003 and 2004 (see table 16). In Geor-gia economic growth has been unstable in recent years, varying between about 1.8% in 2000, 10.6% in 1997, and 6.2% in 2004. The real growth of GDP of Georgia in 2010 amounted to 6.4%.Industry
47%
Agriculture22%
Services31%
Armenia
Industry61%
Agriculture6%
Services33%
Azerbaijan
Industry27%
Agriculture11%
Services62%
Georgia
Source: www.indexmundi.com
GDP by sectors in 2010
Industry47%
Agriculture22%
Services31%
Armenia
Industry61%
Agriculture6%
Services33%
Azerbaijan
Industry27%
Agriculture11%
Services62%
Georgia
Source: www.indexmundi.com
GDP by sectors in 2010
Industry47%
Agriculture22%
Services31%
Armenia
Industry61%
Agriculture6%
Services33%
Azerbaijan
Industry27%
Agriculture11%
Services62%
Georgia
Source: www.indexmundi.com
GDP by sectors in 2010
Industry47%
Agriculture22%
Services31%
Armenia
Industry61%
Agriculture6%
Services33%
Azerbaijan
Industry27%
Agriculture11%
Services62%
Georgia
Source: www.indexmundi.com
GDP by sectors in 2010
16 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Land use in 2009
43%
41%
13%3%
Georgia
71%
13%
4%12%
Armenia
55%
12%1%
32%
Azerbaijan
Agricultural land
Forest
Water
Other
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
The Peace Bridge, Tbilisi, GEORGIA
17The South Caucasus at a Glance
Ararat Valley, ARMENIA
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
1
0.5
0
-0.5
Changes of winter air temperature
1.5
1
0.5
0
Changes of summer air temperature
1
0.5
0
(C°)
(C°)
(C°)
1935–2008 for Armenia, 1936–2005 for Georgia, 1960–2005 for Azerbaijan
Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Changes of annual air temperature
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATIONGEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
AZ
AZ
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus REGIonAL CLIMATE ChAnGE TREnDS To study global warming scenarios and risks associ-ated with climate change trends on a regional level in the South Caucasus, the Environment and Secu-rity (ENVSEC) Initiative launched a project on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus implemented by UNDP. The project brought together leading na-tional experts engaged in the preparation of the sec-ond national communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia under the UNFCCC. Precipitation and temperature data from the key meteorological stations of the three South Caucasus countries were examined in the following sequence : Armenia — 32 stations for 1935–2008; Georgia — 21 stations for 1936–2005; Azerbaijan — 14 stations for 1960–2005. Temperature changes were assessed for the summer, winter and the whole year. During the period from 1935 to 2009 in Armenia the annual average temperature increased by 0.85ºC, and in Azerbaijan by 0.5 to 0.6ºC since the 1880s, with the highest registered temperatures during the last 10 years. In Georgia from 1906 to 1995 the mean annual air temperature has increased by 0.1 to 0.5ºC in the eastern part of the country, whilst it has decreased by 0.1 to 0.3ºC in the west (Georgia’s Initial National Communication, 1999). However, if calculating for the last 50 years the data shows a different trend: dur-ing the 1957 to 2006 the mean annual temperatures increased by 0.2ºC in the western part and by 0.3ºC in the eastern Georgia (Georgia’s Second National Com-munication, 2009). Regional differences are also reported from Azer-baijan, with the highest temperature increase in the Greater Caucasus and Kura₂Aras lowlands, and from Armenia, with the warmest regions in the Ararat low-lands and in the zone from the border of Georgia to Lake Sevan.
20 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Normal 1,283 773 868 1,338 1,349 1,525 508 872 1,037Warm 682 1,551 2,558 796 843 1,161 463 607 1,063
Very warm 482 736 745 310 545 1,527 331 749 1,858Hot 1 0 305 4 17 287 13 63 539
Very hot 0 0 113 0 0 0 0 0 3Extremly hot 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Number of dangerous days 483 736 1,164 314 562 1,814 344 812 2,400
Vanadzor Tbilisi BakuComparison of “dangerous” days in Vanadzor, Tbilisi and Baku in the past and future
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Values of heat Index (human thermal comfort)Relativehumidity
Temperature (C°)26° 27° 28° 29° 30° 31° 32° 33° 34° 35° 36° 37° 38° 39° 40° 41°
90% 28.0 30.7 33.8 37.1 40.7 44.7 48.9 53.5 58.5 63.7 63.7 75.1 81.2 87.7 94.5 101.685% 27.9 30.2 32.9 35.9 39.1 42.7 46.6 50.8 55.2 60.0 65.1 70.4 76.1 82.1 88.3 94.980% 27.7 29.7 32.1 34.7 37.7 40.9
39.237.638.734.933.732.631.730.930.329.7
44.442.340.438.737.135.634.433.332.331.530.8
48.145.743.541.439.537.836.334.933.832.832.0
52.249.446.844.442.240.238.436.835.434.333.3
56.553.350.347.645.142.840.738.837.235.834.7
61.257.554.251.048.145.543.141.039.137.536.2
66.162.058.254.751.448.545.843.441.239.337.8
71.366.862.558.655.051.648.645.943.441.339.4
76.8 82.5 88.675% 27.5 29.3 31.4 33.7 36.3 71.8 77.0 82.670% 27.3 28.9 30.7 32.7 35.0 67.1 71.9 77.065% 27.1 28.5 30.0 31.8 33.8 62.7 67.1 71.760% 26.9 28.1 29.5 31.0 32.8 58.7 62.6 66.855% 26.7 27.7 28.9 30.3 31.9 55.0 58.5 62.350% 26.6 27.4 28.5 29.7 31.1 51.6 54.8 58.145% 26.4 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.3 48.5 51.3 54.340% 26.3 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.7 45.8 48.3 20.935% 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.2 43.3 45.5 47.830% 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.9 28.8 41.2 43.1 45.1
Note: Exposure to full sunchine can increase heat index values by up to 10°C
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
hE AT WAVES The UNDP/ENVSEC regional climate study group constructed a regional model on the urban heat wave trends for some South Caucasian cities, includ-ing Tbilisi, Baku and Vanadzor. The study assessed one of the important indicators of climate change — the Heat Index that is a combination of air temperature and relative humid-ity during the warm periods of a year. The table above demonstrates how Heat Indexes are “translated” to an actual feeling of human comfort when the temperatures (C°) are combined with the relative humidity
(%). The team explored daily meteorological data for warm periods (May to September) of the 1955–1970 and 1990–2007 time sequences, using PRECIS statistical analysis, and generated a forecast for 2020–2049. The calculation was based on the Global Climate Model — ECHAM. Analy-sis of the calculation and forecast models show that four out of six classes of Heat Indexes have risen during the last 15–20 years (1990–2007) and are expected to increase dra-matically for one of three critical classes (orange/hot class with extreme warning of risk) during the coming decades.
21Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
5
4
3.5
Changes in 2071–2100
3
2.5
Changes in 2041–2070
1.5
Changes in 2011–2040
(C°)
(C°)
(C°)
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011
Forecasted changes of annual air temperature in the South Caucasus
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
(by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)
GCM pRECIS MoDELSThe analysis of climate change scenarios developed for all three South Caucasus countries using PRECIS outputs and the MAGICC/SCENGEN modelling tool re-vealed that changes of temperature by the end of the century will vary in the range of 3–6°C. According to the forecast made by the most appro-priate models for the years 2070–2100 the highest in-crement in temperature, 7.7°C, should be anticipated in West Georgia in the summer. The lowest increment, for the same time period, 2.1°C, is expected in Armenia during the winter. The expected increase in mean annual temperature is similar for Armenia and Georgia and is likely to be about 5°C. In Azerbaijan the expected increase is lower, around 3.6°C.
22 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011
0%
-5%
-10%
5%
0%
-5%
Changes in 2071–2100
Changes in 2041–2070
Changes in 2011–2040
Forecasted changes of annual precipitation in the South Caucasus
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
IRAN
TURKEY
BLACKSEA CASPIAN
SEA
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
ARMENIAAZERBAIJAN
AZ
(by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)
According to the results shown by the HadCM3 climate modelling tool (which is a modification of HAD300 and is considered as best suited model to the Caucasus re-gion) the decrease in annual precipitation in the period 2070–2100 will be around 15% for Azerbaijan and Geor-gia, rising to 24% for Armenia. The highest decrease in precipitation is forecast for Georgia — 80.8% in summer and 68% in spring. The lowest decrease is expected in Azerbaijan, 11% in sum-mer. The highest increase ( 22%) is likely also to be in Azerbaijan in the winter.
23Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
2030
2070
2100
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
2030
2070
2100
1 1 1 1 1
3
4 4 4 45
3 3 3 3
-3 -3 -7 1 -3
-5
-7 -19 3 -9-8
-5 -14 3 -6
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia,compared to 1961–1990
Precipitation change (%)(C°) Temperature change
Sources: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Changes in average annual Temperature andPrecipitation in Armenia, 1940–2008 compared
to 1961–1990
Precipitation change (mm)
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
1.0
0.5
0
-0.5
-1.0
100
50
0
-50
-100
Temperature change (C°)
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
CLIMATE ChAnGE TREnDS In ARMEnIAAs a mountainous country with an arid climate, Armenia is highly vulnerable to global climate change. It’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC estimated devia-tions of annual air temperature and precipitation recorded in 1940–2008 from the average of the period of 1961–1990. According to the study average annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C, while annual precipitation decreased by 6% during the last 80 years. However, the changes show different trends by regions and seasons. In general, the average air temperature has increased by 10°C in summer months, while it stayed sta-ble in winter months. During the last 15 years summers were extremely hot, especially in 1998, 2000 and 2006. The 2006 is considered the hottest recorded in Armenia between 1929 and 2008. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation changes in Armenia is quite irregular; north₂eastern and central ( Ararat valley) regions of the country have become more arid, while the southern and north₂western parts and the Lake Sevan basin have had a significant increase in precipitation in the last 70 years.
24 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Changes in average annual Temperature inAzerbaijan, 1991–2000 compared to 1961–1990
Absheron (Mashtaga)2
1
0
-1
-2
Sources: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
C°
Ganja
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
2
1
0
-1
-2
C°
Lankaran2
1
0
-1
-2
C°
Nakhchivan2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
C°
CLIMATE ChAnGE TREnDS In AzERbAIjAnClimate change trends have been visible in Azerbaijan for some decades too. The data from the National Hydrometeorology Department for 1991–2000 show an increase in temperature by an average 0.41°C, which is three times larger than the increase from 1961 to 1990. As part of the National Communication study, the average annual temperature and precipitation anoma-lies have been analysed in 7 regions of Azerbaijan for the period 1991 to 2000. Compared to the 1961–90 level, temperature anomalies were particularly visible in the Kura-Aras Lowland and ranged from -1.12°C to +1.91°C. The average annual precipitation was below the norm in almost all regions. However, differences seemed more significant in the Kura-Aras Lowland, where they were 14.3% lower, in Ganja-Gazakh (17.7%), and in Nakhchivan (17.1%). In summary, over the past 10 years the rainfall level in Azerbaijan has fallen by 9.9%.
25Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
Source: www.climatewizard.org
Changes in annual Temperature and Precipitation in Georgia1951–2002(C°) Temperature change Precipitation change (%)
120
110
100
90
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
-20
-40
-60
0
20
40
60
80Precipitation change (%)
-1
0
0.5
-0.5
1
1.5
2
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Dedoplistskaro and Lentekhi1990–2005 compared to 1955–1970
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
(C°) Temperature change
Dedoplistskaro Lentekhi
CLIMATE ChAnGE TREnDS In GEoRGIA The latest studies of climate patterns in Georgia show changes of major parameters — mean and extreme air temperatures, relative humidity, moisture regimes, average annual precipitation, etc. — which clearly indicate an over-all trend of changing climate in the region. The UNFCCC Second National Communication from Georgia identifies three areas as most sensitive to climate change and there-fore vulnerable to future extremes: the Black Sea coastal
zone, Lower Svaneti (Lentekhi district) and Dedoplistskaro district of the Alazani river basin. To investigate the climate change process in Georgia, a survey of climate parameter trends was undertaken for the whole territory and for the priority regions in particu-lar. The trends of change in mean annual air temperatures, mean annual precipitation totals and in the moistening re-gime were estimated between 1955–1970 and 1990–2005.
26 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
The statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation total from the first to the second period in all three priority re-gions, accompanied by a decrease in hydrothermal coeffi-cient (HTC) in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in the other two priority regions. At the same time, the rates of air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions were assessed for four time intervals of different duration (1906–2005; 1966–2005; 1985–2005 and 1995–2005). This survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20 years.
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,0000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000Altitude, m
Precipitation, mm
East part
West part
Precipitation at different altitudes of theAlazani River catchment
Source: Calibration of hydrological model for the Alazani River in WEAP, UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Alazani River
27Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
The Khrami-Debed River Basin
AZ
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
13%
15%
16%
16%
17%
5°
5°
5°
5°
5°
DilijanIjevan
Red Bridge
Vanadzor
DmanisiAkhalkalaki
Bolnisi
Tashir
Stepanavan
Tsalka
Tbilisi
Eddikilisa
TumanianGargar
Sadakhlo
Debed
Khrami
Khrami
Khrami IoriKura
Kura
Mashavera
Tas hir
11%
4,8°Precipitation
%Temperature
C°
Increase
Decrease
10 km0
Pambak
8%
4.9°
5%
5.8°
4%
5.2°
8%
5.3° 12%
5.3°
11%
4.8°
7%
5.4°
RUSSIANFEDERATION
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
Telavi
Gurjaani
Kvareli
ZakatalaTsnori
Akhmeta
Sheki
Tbilisi
Mingechevirreserv.
IoriKura
Alazani
Lagodekhi
The Alazani River Basin
11%
4.8°Precipitation
%Temperature
C°
Increase
Decrease
50 km0
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
BLACKSEA
CASPIANSEA
AZERBAIJAN
Alazani river basin
Khrami-Debedriver basin
ChAnGES In hyDRoLoGICAL bALAnCE In ThE KhRAMI-DEbED AnD ALAzAnI RIVER bASInSThe Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins are two important trans-boundary watersheds and major sub-basins of the greater Kura river, sharing scarce water resources between Armenia and Georgia (Khrami-Debed) and Azerbaijan and Georgia (Ala-zani). This area is prone to land degradation and de-sertification from the forecast extremes of climate change, translating to economic losses and in-creased poverty for local population The UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus evaluated the vul-nerability of these river basins to climate change us-ing PRECIS and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Plan-ning Model) tools to assess the changes expected in mean annual temperatures, precipitation and an-nual stream flows compared with the baseline years of 1961–1990. The results of the study showed that immediate adaptation measures have to be taken by all ripar-ian countries to overcome the expected losses to the economy of the region.
Expected annual changes in air temperatures and precipitation in the Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990
28 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Average annual stream flow in the Khrami-Debed River (mln m³) in 1966–1990
267 336 480
924
1,593
Yeddikilisa Tumanyan Gargar Sadakhlo Red Bridge
The Khrami-Debed River Basin
AZ
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
DilijanIjevan
Red Bridge
Vanadzor
DmanisiAkhalkalaki
Bolnisi
Tashir
Stepanavan
TsalkaYeddikilisa
TumanyanGargar
Sadakhlo
Debed
Khrami
Khrami
Khrami Kura
Kura
Mashavera
Tas hir
Pambak
29%50%
Section
Difference with 2041–2070 (%)
Difference with 2071–2100 (%)
29%
31%54%
29%51%
40%60%
54%
10 km0
38%
44%
46%
27%
26%
28%
35%
Telavi
Gurjaani
KvareliLagodekhi
Zakatala
Tsnori
Akhmeta
Chiauri
Confluence
Shakriani
ZemoKedi
Sheki
Tbilisi
Mingechevirreserv.
Iori
KuraAl
azan
i
Agrichai
Alazani
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
RUSSIANFEDERATION
Section
Difference with 2020–2050 (%)
Difference with 2070–2100 (%)
The Alazani River Basin
59%
50 km0
1,336
1,874
3,1183,502
Shakriani Chiauri Zemo Kedi Agrichay
Average annual stream flow in the Alazani River (mln m³) in 1966–1990
Changes in average annual stream flows at different points of the Khrami-Debed and Alazani rivers, baseline 1961–1990
Sources: Assessment of vulnerability of water resources to climate change, 2011; Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
29Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
Neft Dashlari (Oily Rocks), AZERBAIJAN
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
Waste
Agriculture
Induatrial Processes
Energy
1990 level
-100% -80% -60% -40% +40%-20% +20%0
Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Armenia
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
N2O
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
25
24
23
22
21
CH4
CO2
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
25
24
23
22
21
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 1990–2006*
AgricultureWaste
Induatrial ProcessesEnergy
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
* Without LULUCF
By gases By sectors
1990 1995 2000 20051990 1995 2000 2005
32 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
After the sharp economic decline of 1991–1994, Armenia was able to achieve economic stability and growth. Eco-nomic growth in 1995–2000 amounted to an annual aver-age of 5.4%, and in 2001–2006 the average growth rate was 12.4%. These shifts have positively influenced the decline of Armenia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon di-oxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared with
the 1990 level, methane by 38% and nitrous oxide by 42%. The energy sector accounted for the major part of the total GHG emissions in 1990–2006. However, energy- related emissions fell in that period — from 91% in 1990 to 64.7% in 2006 (Armenia’s Second National Communica-tion, 2010).
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A A Z E R B A I J A N
T U R K E Y
I R A N
Yerevan
Gyumri
Alaverdi
Vanadzor
Artik
GorisSisian
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
NagornoKarabakh
Nakhchivan(Azerbaijan)
LakeSevan
Iori
Kura
Kura
Hrazdan
Echmiadzin
Armavir Ararat
NS
NS
Aras
Aras
BTE
BTC, BS
Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Aras hydroschemereserv.
Vineyard
Fruit-growering
GardenArable land
Iron
Copper-molybdenumCooper
RailwayRoads
Oil pipelineGas pipeline
Lead and zincChromiteAluminium
50 km0
MetallurgyChemical industryEngineering and metal-working Production of building materials
Sources: SoE-Armenia, 2002, GRID-Arendal; Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GENI.
Economic map of Armenia
BTCBS
BTENS
— Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan— Baku-Supsa— Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum— North-South
Coal
ARMEnIA: GhG EMISSIonS by EConoMIC SECToRS
33Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Greenhouse gas emissions in Azerbaijan, 1990–2005
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
By gases By sectors
AgricultureWaste
Industrial processesEnergy
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
N2OCH4
CO2
1990 1995 2000 20051990 1995 2000 2005
Baku, AZERBAIJAN
Greenhouse gas emissions changefrom 1990 to 2006 in Azerbaijan
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Waste
Energy
1990 level
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0
34 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
GanjaTovuz Mingechevir
Kurdamir
Yevlakh
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Aras
Samur
Mingechevirreserv.
Iori
Kura
Alazani
Beylagan
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
CASPIAN
SEA
LakeSevan
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Nakhchivan
NS
NS
From
Kaz
akhs
tan
BTE
BTC, BS
NagornoKarabakh
Ali-Bairamli
Sangachal
Dubendi
Neft Dashlari
Salyan
Shah-Deniz Absheron
Chirag
RUSSIANFEDERATION
Arashydroscheme
reserv.VineyardGardenArable land
Cotton growing
Economic map ofAzerbaijan
Refinery Fishery
Sheep breeding
RailwayRoads
Oil pipelineGas pipeline
Oil fieldGas field
MetallurgyChemical industryEngineering and metal-working Production of building materials
MolybdenumAluminium
GypsumCementIronCopper
Lead and zincGold
Natural gasOil
50 km0
Oil terminalTransport by tanker
Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Arendal, Caucasus ecoregion, 2008;Azerbaijan international, 11.04.2003; European Tribune; StratOil; Londex Resources.
BTCBS
— Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan— Baku-Supsa
BTENS
— Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum— North-South
A Z
The economic potential of Azerbaijan is mainly determined by its oil and gas industry, the production of chemicals and petrochemicals, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, tex-tiles and the food industry. The agricultural sector consists mostly of wheat, cotton, wine, fruit, tobacco, tea, vegetables and cattle breeding. The predominant part of Azerbaijan’s exports comes from
oil and oil products, electrical energy, cotton and silk fibres. The level of GHG emissions in Azerbaijan in 2005 amounted to 70.6% of the 1990 base year level. The main sources of CO₂ emissions are the energy and industrial sectors, especially from burning fuel for energy production, oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).
AzERbAIjAn: GhG EMISSIonS by EConoMIC SECToRS
35Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
N2OCH4
CO2
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent By gases
AgricultureWaste
1990 1995 2000 2005
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Industrial processesEnergy
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009
By sectors
Greenhouse gas emissions in Georgia, 1990–2006
1990 2000 2006
Energy
Agriculture
Waste
Industrial processes
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009
1990 level
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0
Greenhouse gas emissions changefrom 1990 to 2006 in Georgia
36 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Source: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Tbilisi data.
Oil terminal
Transportby tanker
BTCBS
BTENS
— Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan— Baku-Supsa— Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum— North-South
Gypsum
Wine-producing
Cement
VineyardGardenArable land
Iron
CopperManganese
RailwayRoadsOil pipelineGas pipeline
Lead and zincGold
Bituminous coalNatural gasOil
Brown coalPeat
MetallurgyChemical industryEngineering and metal-working Production of building materials
50 km0
Refinery
Fishery
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
A R M E N I A A Z E R B A I J A N
G E O R G I A
T U R K E Y
GoriKaspi
Kazreti
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Ozurgeti Zestaponi
Tkibuli
Tkvarcheli
Gagra
Zugdidi
Chiatura
Akhaltsikhe
Sukhumi
TbilisiBatumi
Poti
SupsaKobuleti
KuleviAnaklia
BLACK
SEA
Terek
Terek
Sulak
Çoruh
(Chorokhi)
Rioni
Rioni
Debed
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
Ingu
ri
Adjara
Abkhazia
Economic map of Georgia
BTE
NS
BTC
BS
BTE
BTC, BS
Georgia’s economic growth has become irreversible since 2004. Georgia’s industry consists of machinery, mining, the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine and mineral water. Agriculture has been a leading sector since Soviet times. Traditional crops include grapes, wheat, maize, fruit (in-cluding citrus), and tea. Total GHG emissions in Georgia began to sharply de-crease after 1990. Since 1991, the share of the energy sec-
tor in total emissions has been decreasing almost continu-ously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990 it had been 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987, though the actual emissions decreased by about four times. Key sources of GHG emissions in 2000 and 2006 did not change significantly compared with 1990. However, the relative importance of different sources has changed (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009).
GEoRGIA: GhG EMISSIonS by EConoMIC SECToRS
37Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
InguriLajanuri
Zhinvali
Tkvarcheli
Khrami 1Khrami 2
Vardnili-1
Argel
Kanaker
Mingechevir
Shamkir Yenikend
ShambTatev
Yerevan
Hrazdan
MtkvariGardabani
Azerbaijan
Shirvan
Sumgayit Shimal
Baku
Tbilisi
CASPIAN
SEA
BLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
LakeVan
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokh
i) DebedMingechevir reserv.
Hra
zdan
Iori
Alazani
Inguri
Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus
Ksani
Absheronsubstation
Zestaponi
Yerevan
Gyumri
Metsamor(440 MW)
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Ganja
Mingechevir
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Van
Poti
Nakhchivan
Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory.
500 kV
Hydro Power Plant Thermal Power Plant
Gas PP Oil PPNuclear Power Plant
220 kV
330 kV
1,300 MW
330–500 MW
110–330 MW
10–110 MW
110 kV100 km0
500 kV330 kV
220 kV
110 kV
110–220 MW
300–550 MW
800–1,200 MW
2,400 MW
Transmission substations Transmission lines
A Z
38 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Georgia
Natural gas
Oil products
Source: InternationalEnergy Agency.
Hydropower
NuclearAzerbaijan
ArmeniaKey sources of electricity in 2008 (in %)
ThE EnERGy SECToR In ThE SouTh CAuCASuS The sources and means of energy generation, despite coexisting in the same region, differ greatly in the South Caucasus countries. In a country rich in fossil fuels, oil products and natural gas are com-monly consumed in Azerbaijan. Energy production there is based on natural gas, fuel oil and hydropower. Thermal power plants account for 89% and hydro-power for 10% of total energy generation. Armenia does not possess its own fuel resources and satisfies its demand for fuel through imports. Its own primary energy resources (hydro, nuclear) cover 31% of the country’s total energy consump-tion. The main type of fuel consumed is natural gas. In 2000–2006, the share of natural gas in total fuel consumption reached 70–79%. Over 80% of Georgia’s electricity is produced by hydropower. The rest mainly comes from thermal power plants, using gas exported from Azerbaijan and Iran. There is an economically viable potential of 32 TWh of hydropower production capacity, one of the largest in the world, of which only 18% is currently being utilized. Georgia became a net electricity exporter in 2007. With its massive unused capacity and its current per capita electricity consumption, one of the lowest in Europe, Georgia can easily increase its electricity exports while satisfying fast-growing domestic electricity consumption, which is rising by 8–9% annually (Second National Communications of Arme-nia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
InguriLajanuri
Zhinvali
Tkvarcheli
Khrami 1Khrami 2
Vardnili-1
Argel
Kanaker
Mingechevir
Shamkir Yenikend
ShambTatev
Yerevan
Hrazdan
MtkvariGardabani
Azerbaijan
Shirvan
Sumgayit Shimal
Baku
Tbilisi
CASPIAN
SEA
BLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
LakeVan
KuraAras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokh
i) DebedMingechevir reserv.
Hra
zdan
Iori
Alazani
Inguri
Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus
Ksani
Absheronsubstation
Zestaponi
Yerevan
Gyumri
Metsamor(440 MW)
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Ganja
Mingechevir
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Van
Poti
Nakhchivan
Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory.
500 kV
Hydro Power Plant Thermal Power Plant
Gas PP Oil PPNuclear Power Plant
220 kV
330 kV
1,300 MW
330–500 MW
110–330 MW
10–110 MW
110 kV100 km0
500 kV330 kV
220 kV
110 kV
110–220 MW
300–550 MW
800–1,200 MW
2,400 MW
Transmission substations Transmission lines
A Z
39Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
Hatsvali with Ushba Mountain, Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
KutaisiSamtredia
Zugdidi
Sukhumi
Gagra
The Rioni River delta
Black Sea Coast,Georgia
The Rioni Riverlower reaches
SukhumiCoastal
zone
The ChorokhiRiver delta
Batumi
PotiSupsa
KuleviBLACKSEA
Rion
i
Ingu
ri
Psou
Kodori
Bzib
Chorokhi
Tskhenistsk
ali
Adjara
Abkhazia
+0.2 m
+0.4 m
+0.7 m
LakePaliastomi
+40%
+60%
+40%
+1.6°+0.3 m
+0.45 m
-0.6°
+1.3°
+60% Rio n i
Sea level rise for the last century
Storm surges for the last half century
Sea surface water temperature since 1991
Sedimentation
G E O R G I A
-26-27-28-29
mBS
Caspian Sea levelchange in 1840–2005
1840 1880 1920 1960 2000
72
372
1118
42
38
60
32
60
-25.0 m BS
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 4
-26.5 m BS3260
CASPIANSEA
Samur
Kura
RUSSIANFEDERATION
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
Sumgayit
Astara
Neftchala
Baku
Aras
Caspian Sea Coast,Azerbaijan
Talysh
Absheron
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010; MENR-Azerbaijan.
0
200
200
500
500
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
Inundated area (km²)at two differents levels
by four segments:
Kura-Aras Lowland
IMpACTS oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: ThE bLACK SEA CoAST, GEoRGIAThe Georgian Black Sea coastal zone is considered the area most vulnerable to climate change in Georgia. Highly developed coastal infrastructure, with a dense network of railways and highways stretched along the coast, the im-portant transportation and industrial hubs of port cities like Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi, and the great number of settlements all play a significant role in the regional econ-omy. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC defines several specific sensitive areas along the coastal zone : Rioni river delta, Chorokhi river delta, the lower reaches of the Rioni river and the Sukhumi coastal area. Some studies suggest the Rioni delta is the most vulnerable area, already experiencing sea level rise and increased storm surges. This situation will trigger more change in the future, with a predicted temperature rise and consequent negative impact on the environment (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2010).
IMpACTS oF CLIMATE ChAnGE:ThE CASpIAn SEA CoAST, AzERbAIjAn Sea level fluctuations are a major cause of concern for the Caspian Sea shoreline. As the largest naturally enclosed water body on Earth, with no outflow to the oceans, the Caspian Sea is particularly vulnerable to global climate change processes. Starting from 1961 a level of -28.0 m below sea level (BS) was conditionally taken as the zero point for the Caspian Sea for observation and planning purposes. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication predicts a further increase of sea level for another 30 to 40 years within the range of -26.5 to -25.0 m BS. Projected damage to the economy would be within the magnitude of USD 4.1 bn. Consequently Azerbaijan is preparing to take adaptation measures (Azerbaijan’s Second National Com-munication, 2010).
42 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
2030
2070
2100
SpringWinter Summer Autumn Annual
2030
2070
2100
1.4 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.5
3.2
4–6 5–7 5–7 4.1–6.12.5–4.5
2.1 3.9 3.9 3.3
-7
7
East shore
West shore
East shore
West shore
East shore
West shore
-15
15
-20
20
-10
10
-25
-15
-5
15
-15
7.5
-7
11
-18
-11
-4
11
-11
6
- 4
+4
-9
-5
-2
5
- 5.5
2.8
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Sevan basin, compared to 1961–1990Precipitation change (%)Temperature change (C°)
Sources: Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.
Calm and nice Lake Sevan, sometimes as stormy as any sea
43Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
Mudflow and landslide high riskzones in the South Caucasus
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
GanjaMingechevir
Sheki
GorisLachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
Kars
PotiCASPIAN
SEABLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Euphrates
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokhi)Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zd
an
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
100 km0
Mudflow Landslide
Source: Armenian’s Second National Communica-tion, 2010; Alizadeh E.K. (2007); MEP-Georgia.
LakeVan
A Z
There are major climate change impacts taking place in the South Caucasus, as shown by the observations of the national hydrometeorology services of Armenia, Azerbai-jan and Georgia. In particular, there is a recorded increase in both mean and extreme air temperatures, in addition to changes in rainfall amounts and patterns. Climate change projection models predict even more increase of extreme weather conditions, translating to a heavier and uneven
seasonal distribution of precipitation with possible dra-matic consequences. As a result, the probability of dev-astating natural disasters such as landslides, avalanches, river fl oods, fl ash fl oods and mudfl ows, causing human casualties and economic losses, is expected to rise in the near future (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: nATuRAL DISASTERS
44 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Flooding and avalanche high riskzones in the South Caucasus
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I AA Z E R B A I J A NT U R K E Y
Yerevan
Gyumri
Armavir
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
MagasNalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
GanjaMingechevir
Sheki
GorisLachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
Kars
PotiCASPIAN
SEABLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
LakeVan
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Sulak
Samur
Euphrates
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokhi)Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hra
zd
an
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
100 km0I R A N
Flood Avalanche
Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. (2010); SoE-Georgia, 2007–2009; ReliefWeb.
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
Terek
A Z
Georgia is particularly exposed to weather extremes, most likely because of its closer proximity to the Black Sea, abundance of water resources, larger amount of annual and seasonal precipitation, high soil humidity, etc. The damage caused by the flooding during the last three years was put at USD 65 m. An increasing frequency and inten-sity of avalanches has been detected since the last dec-ades of the 20th century. More than 20,000 people were
displaced from their homes between 1970 and 1987. About 53,000 locations damaged by gravitational landslides had been identified by 2009. Mudflows are estimated to cause damage of approximately USD 100 m annually. Overall, economic damage caused by mudflows in Georgia over the period 1987 to 1991 exceeded USD 1 bn; the damage caused by mudflows from 1995 to 2008 was over USD 330 m (State of the Environment Georgia, 2010).
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 45
1972 2002
GLACIER MELTInG In ThE CAuCASuSGlaciers are sensitive to climate change. Some climatolo-gists suggest the contribution of melting glaciers to sea-level rise may have been increasing by as much as 27% for the last few decades (Dyurgerov, 2003). The climate change scenarios published by the IPCC predict up to 60% glacier loss in the northern hemisphere by 2050 (Schneeberger et al 2003). The Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org) says glacial volume in the Caucasus has declined by 50% during the last century and will decrease more severely in the foreseeable future. Glaciers are very important water resources for local communities, and play a significant role in the water budget. Smaller glaciers are known to respond more rapidly to climate change and are therefore more im-portant in calculating overall impact. Glaciers cover an area estimated at around 1,600 km² in the Caucasus. Exact up-to-date information on the chang-es in their mass balance is not available. There is visual evi-dence of glacier recession in the Caucasus, but information concerning the latter stages is limited. However those stud-ies that have focused on glacier change in the Caucasus (Bedford and Barry, 1994) reported a strong retreat trend
for 51 glaciers between 1972 and 1986. Chris R. Stokes, Stephen D. Gurney, Maria Shahgedanova, Victor Popovin (Late 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Cau-casus Mountains, Russia/Georgia) analysed glaciers of the central Caucasus region, extending the analysis of Bedford and Barry, and showed that the retreat trend has continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Melting rates have greatly accelerated since the mid-1990s. Moreover, the study indi-cates that the retreat of Caucasus glaciers from the mid-1970s to 2000 correlates well with the temperature record.
In these pictures: Melting of the Laboda Glacier in Georgia: photos taken in 1972 and 2002.Source: Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: GLACIER MELTInG
1972 2002
GEORGIA
Laboda-Zopkhito Glaciers
Shkelda-Djankuat Glaciers zone
46 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
1 kmin 1985 in 2000
Glacier line0
RUSSIANFEDERATION
Source: Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).
Glaciers melting in north part of the Central Caucasus
ShkheldaGlacier
BzhedukhGlacier
KashkatashGlacier Bashkara
Glacier
N
DjankuatGlacier
500 m0Source: Lambrecht A., et al (2011). Supra-glacial debris cover (trace of glacier) in 1971
Glacier boundary in 2009
LabodaGlacier
GEORGIA
ZopkhitoGlacier
Glaciers melting in south part of the Central CaucasusN
Another group of scientists (Lambrecht et al, 2011) focused their study also on the central part of the Greater Cauca-sus — the Djankuat glacier (Russia) and the Zopkhito gla-cier (Georgia). The results of the study show that at the southern end of the Caucasus range the exposition (south-ern slope) causes higher radiation input and thus more in-
In this picture: retreat of two glaciers on the South slope of the central Caucasus — the Loboda and Zopkhito glaciers, between 1971 ( yellow ) and 2009 ( blue ). The data on the image is a combination of CORONA imagery dating from 1971, a SPOT image of 2007 and a Digital Globe image ( Google Earth ) of 2008.Source : Lambrecht, A., et al (2011).
In this picture: retreat of six neighbouring gla-ciers in the central Caucasus between 1985 ( yellow ) and 2000 ( red ), including Djankuat glacier ( furthest east ), which has an extensive mass balance record, and Shkhelda glacier ( furthest west ) with one of the largest retreat rates in the CaucasusSource : Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).
tensive ice melt. However, high cloudiness due to higher radiation input also provides higher precipitation in the south than in the north. As a result, the effective glacier melt is about 20% less in the south. Both regions experi-enced strong glacier area loss during recent decades and a gradual increase in debris cover (Lambrecht, et al, 2011).
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 47
Viticulture and wine production is one of the most viable and oldest agricultural activities that have been carried out for centuries in South Caucasus and particularly Georgia. Both archaeology and history show that Georgia was cul-tivating grapevines and practicing ancient wine produc-tion more than 7,000 years ago (Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia, 2011 — www.samtrest.gov.ge). In many regards Georgia’s identity was closely connected with wine pro-duction, which was very popular among the former Soviet states and always highly prized. Georgia has excellent conditions for viticulture. A moder-
ate climate with a sufficient number of sunny days, frost-free winters and moist air, in combination with fertile soils, min-eral-rich and clean spring waters and a vast diversity of en-demic agricultural species provide outstanding conditions for it. The total share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is about 10–14%, with viticulture and wine production playing a very important role (Georgia’s Second National Commu-nication, 2009). However, increasing natural disasters and specific weather extremes caused by global climate change that is already affecting Georgia and especially its grape-growing zones may jeopardize the sector considerably.
IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE on WInEGRoWInG zonES oF GEoRGIA
48
Potential impact of climate change on winegrowing zones of Georgia
Winegrowing area(existing and potential)
Landslide area
Mudflow area
Flooding area
Drought area
Red, white and sparkling winesHystorical-
geographycal border
Source: MEP-Georgia; Georgian Wine booklet, 2001.50 km0
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
A R M E N I A
A Z E R B A I J A N
T U R K E YG E O R G I A
Gori
Tskhinvali
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Sukhumi
TbilisiBatumi
Poti
BLACK
SEA
Terek
Terek
Sulak
Rioni
Rioni
Debed
Iori
Kura
Kura
Alazani
I ngu
ri
Mingechevirreserv.
Zemo Svaneti
Kvemo Svaneti
Lechkhumi
RachaKhevi Khevsureti
TushetiMtiuletiPshavi
ShidaKartli
KakhetiKvemoKartli
Javakheti
Imereti
ToriSamtskheAchara
Guria
Samegrelo
Abkhazia
Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
Grape Varieties
49
16.5
15
37.4
Armenia
Percent ofagriculture land
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Vineyard area in the South Caucasus in 2009
0.8%
0.3%
1.2%
Sources: State statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia,Year Books, 2010.
Areathousand ha
0
Million
1
2
3
2000 2002 2004
Source: Georgian National Tourism Agency.
2006 2008 2010
Number of tourists in Georgia in 2000–2011
Source: www.komersanti.ge (6.01.2011)
6,200
13,000
26,000(prognosed)
2009
2010
2011
Number of tourists in the Upper Svanetiin 2009–2011
The Upper Svaneti region of Georgia has been a very popu-lar tourist destination for a long time. Unique and mostly untouched natural landscapes, high mountains, abundant historical monuments and its exceptional cultural herit-age are only few of the wonders ensuring this popularity. Access to this region has never been easy though, due to its rigid topography and the dilapidated infrastructure in post-Soviet Georgia, exhausted by ethnic conflicts, civil wars and consequent economic devastation. Attention to
Svaneti has increased considerably in recent years, after the launch of infrastructure rehabilitation projects and the construction of hotels and a brand new airport in Mestia (the regional capital). The airport now has a modern navi-gation system and connects Svaneti to major Georgian airports, as well as some international destinations. The number of visiting tourists has doubled compared with recent years, since a ski resort (operating for about six months each year) was developed in Hatsvali, a highland
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
ThE IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE on GEoRGIA’S TouRIST SECToR: uppER SVAnETI
50 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Inguri
Inguri
Inguri
Kheledula
Laskadura Tskhenistskali
Nak
ra
Nenskra
Dolra
Tsaneri
Mulkhra
Kasleti
Khobistskali
Khudoni reserv.(projected)
Mes
tiach
ala
Tita
Khaishi
Ipari
Naki Mazeri
Ienashi
IskariMestia
Zhabeshi
Lakhiri
Ieli Adishi
Tsvirmi
Iprari
Chazhashi
Tsana
Mele
Tvibi
LentekhiTsanashi
Mananauri
Dolra
Ushba
L e k h z i r
Tsaneri
Laila
Shkhelda4,368 m
Ushba4,710 m
Shkhara5,068 m
Tetnuldi4,852 m
Gistola4,853 m
Laila4008 mS
va n
e t i r a
n geE
g
ri s i r a n
ge
G r ea
t
Ca u
c
a
su
s
Hatsvali
Glaciers
Forest area
Svaneti priorityconservation area (WWF-Caucasus proposal)
Airport
Historical monument
Ski resortVery strong
Strong
Moderate
Avalanche hazard Landslidehazard
Motor roadDirt road
UNESCO WorldHeritage Site
Potential impact of climate change in theUpper Svaneti touristic zone
10 km0
Dolra
Sources: MEP-Georgia; MENR-Georgia; 1:50,000 Topographic maps.
GEORGIA
resort close to one of the most charming mountain peaks of Georgia — Ushba (4,710 m above sea level). Access to the UNESCO world heritage site at Ushguli has also been restored. However, an increased number of tourists will also mean increased pressure on the fragile natural eco-
systems in coming years. This will become an even more sensitive issue as the region is located in the landslide and avalanche high-risk zone and changing climate patterns, with the predicted temperature rise and precipitation de-crease, are cause for serious concerns.
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 51
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
CASPIAN
SEA
BLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
LakeVan
Kura
Kura
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokh
i) Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hraz
dan
Iori
Alazani
Ingu
ri
Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus
Yerevan
Gyumri
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Lentekhi
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Ganja
Sheki
Mingechevir
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Poti
100 km0
Tskh
en
istskali
Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe.
Depopulation due to increase natural disasters
Spread of malaria
Glaciers melting
Depletion of water resources
Land degradation and desertification
Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise
Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes
A Z
52 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Sensitivity to climate changeExposure to impactsAdaptive capacity
Increasing sensitivity and exposure Adaptation capacity
Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009.
Albania
Kyrgystan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Turkey
Moldova
Serbia
Macedonia (F.Y.R.)
Russia
Bulgaria
Bosnia
Romania
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Belarus
Croatia
Poland
Latvia
Lithuania
Hungary
Slovakia
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
10
GEORGIAARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
Index of vulnerability to climate change*
R U S S I A NF E D E R AT I O N
G E O R G I A
A R M E N I A A Z E R B A I J A N
I R A N
T U R K E Y
Adjara
Abkhazia
Nagorno-Karabakh
Nakhchivan
CASPIAN
SEA
BLACK
SEA
LakeSevan
LakeVan
Kura
Kura
Kura
Aras
Aras
Kura
Terek
Sulak
Samur
Rioni
Rioni
Çoruh (Chorokh
i) Debed
Mingechevirreserv.
Hraz
dan
Iori
Alazani
Ingu
ri
Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus
Yerevan
Gyumri
Alaverdi
MakhachkalaGrozny
Vladikavkaz
Gori
Tskhinvali
Lentekhi
Telavi
Rustavi
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
Magas
Nalchik
Vanadzor
Sukhumi
Ganja
Sheki
Mingechevir
Goris
Lachin
Meghri
Kapan
Khankendi(Stepanakert)
Sumgayit
Neftchala
Baku
Tbilisi
Nakhchivan
Batumi
Kars
Poti
100 km0
Tskh
en
istskali
Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe.
Depopulation due to increase natural disasters
Spread of malaria
Glaciers melting
Depletion of water resources
Land degradation and desertification
Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise
Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes
A Z*Vulnerability to climate change is a combination of: i) exposure to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change rela-tive to today’s climate; ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view of climate change, e.g. renewable water resources, agriculture and hydro-power production ; and iii) adaptive capacity to climate change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to re-spond to weather shocks and variability.
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Sensitivity to climate changeExposure to impactsAdaptive capacity
Increasing sensitivity and exposure Adaptation capacity
Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009.
Albania
Kyrgystan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Turkey
Moldova
Serbia
Macedonia (F.Y.R.)
Russia
Bulgaria
Bosnia
Romania
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Belarus
Croatia
Poland
Latvia
Lithuania
Hungary
Slovakia
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
10
GEORGIAARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
Index of vulnerability to climate change*
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 53
Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus
AGRICuLTuRELand degradation and desertification (eastern part of South Caucasus), salinization, droughts, coastal inundation and bogging (Black and Cas-pian Sea coastal zones), loss of soil fertility, decrease of crop production, degradation of wine- and citrus-growing zones.
Impact on livelihood and food security
LAnD AnD WATERLand contamination by pesticides and heavy metals, saliniza-tion of soils, overgrazing pastures, illegal and ill-maintained waste dumps close to water streams, glacier melting, deple-tion of freshwater sources (eastern part of South Caucasus) lack of safe and good quality of drinking water.
Impact on livelihoods, agriculture, human health
Water resources
Food security
biodiversity
Social problems
FLooDS AnD nATuRAL DISASTERSIncreased number of catastrophic floods due to weather extremes (Black Sea coast, Alazani Valley, Kura lowland in Azerbaijan), devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, flash-floods, avalanches in mountainous zones, inundation of croplands, settlements at lowlands.
Impact on livelihoods, infrastructure, threat to human life and health, local and transboundary problems, deterioration of social conditions
54 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
SEA AnD CoASTALSea level rise, land inundation, coastal erosion, increased number of storm surges, pollution of sea water by oil products (Caspian Sea) and by untreated wastewater discharge (Black and Caspian Seas), coastal line change, lack of safe drinking water, decrease in number and diver-sity of marine specifies, deterioration of coastal infrastructure, spread of Malaria at inundated areas (eastern part of South Caucasus).
Impact on coastal and sea biodiversity, livelihoods, agriculture, transport and other infrastructure, tourism
FoRESTS, FAunA AnD FLoRADisplacement of natural boundaries at sensitive areas of eastern South Caucasus (temperate forest ecosystems), loss of resilience of flora and fauna to invasive species, loss of natural ecosystem “corridors” for migration of rare and endemic species, increased cases of forest fires, degradation of landscape diversity, loss of biodiversity. Impact on livelihoods, biodiversity, freshwater resources, agriculture, human health
Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus
pEopLE AnD WELLbEInGDepopulation and eco-migration due to increased number of devastating natural disasters— landslides, mudflows, avalanches at highland zones of Adjara and Svaneti (Western Georgia), lack of safe drinking water and food, increase of poverty, spread of infectious diseases, increased stress due to heat waves, increased cases of cardiovascular diseases.
Threat to human life, health and social conditions
55
Caucasus Environment Outlook (2002), UNEP.
Climate Change in Central Asia (2009). Zoï Environment Network.
Dyurgerov, M.B. 2003. Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle. J. Hydrol., 282(1–4), 164–176.
Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus (2010), Autrement, Paris.
Georgian National Tourism Agency.
Georgian Wine booklet (2001), Tbilisi.
GRID-Arendal (2008) Caucasus ecoregion.
GRID-Tbilisi data. European Tribune: www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/11/20/113536/31
Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. Needs Assessment of a Flood Early Warning System in Georgia. Disaster Risk Reduction Consultancy Report. June 2010, UNDP. Tbilisi, Georgia.
Commersant. Online Magazine (6.01.2011): www.commersant.ge
Lambrecht A., Mayer C., Hagg W., Popovnin V., Rezepkin A., Lomidze N. and Svanadze D. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers in the Northern and Southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 431–459, 2011: www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/431/2011/
Londex Resources: www.londex.org/projects.html
Melconyan H., Hovsepyan A. Climate Change Scenarios over South Caucasus Region. UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild. 2003. Modeling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2xCO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145–163.
State of the Environment of Armenia (2002), GRID-Arendal.
State of the Environment of Georgia (2007-2009). Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.
ReferencesMain background documents:
First National Communication of the Republic of Armenia (1998). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.
Armenia’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.
Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate Change (2000). National Climate Research Centre.
Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic.
Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations frame-work convention on Climate Change (1999). National Climate Research Centre.
Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009). Minis-try of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia.
Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region (2011). ENVSEC, UNDP.
Additional references:
Alizadeh E.K. Sustainable development of mountain geosystems in the conditions of strengthening morphodynamic intensity (on an example of Azerbaijan), the bulletin of the Vladikavkaz centre of science, 2007, n°3.
Assessment of vulnerability of water resource to climate change in trans-boundary river basins (Khrami-Debed and Aghstev) and recommendations on the corresponding adaptation measures. Yerevan, 2011.
Association of the power engineers and specialists of Azerbaijan (APESA): www.azenerji.com.
Azerbaijan international Magazine (11.04.2003): www.azer.com — Pages similaires
Bedford, D.P. and Barry, R.G. 1994. Glacier trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s. Phys. Geogr., 15(5), 414–424.
Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008.
56 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Statistical Year Book of Azerbaijan, 2010: www.azstat.org/statinfo/demoqraphic/en/index.shtml; www.azstat.org/statinfo/environment/en/index.shtml
Statistical Year Book of Georgia, 2010: www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/yearbook/Statistical%20Yearbook_2010.pdf
Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorological Department: www.eco.gov.az/en/prog-buro.php
Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org
Earth Policy Institute: www.earth-policy.org
Index Mundi: www.indexmundi.com
Institute for Atmospheric Physics: www.dlr.de/pa/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2559/3824_read-5749
Global Energy Network Institute (GENI): www.geni.org
Global Energy Observatory: www.globalenergyobservatory.org
International Energy Agency: www.iea.org
PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System: www.metoffice.gov.uk/ precis
ReliefWeb: www.reliefweb.int/countries
United Nations statistics: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm
WHO-Europe, Malaria: www.euro.who.int
World Bank statistics: www.data.worldbank.org
Photos:
Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums: www.utexas.edu/courses/larrymyth/2Prometheus2009.html
Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Jincharadze Z., 2007.
Debed river at Northern Armenia, Jincharadze Z., 2007
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA, Naveriani V.
State of the Environment of Georgia (2010), draft report. Ministry of Environ-mental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.
Stokes, C.R., Gurney, S.D., Shahgedanova, M., Popovin, V. 2006. Late-20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 52 No. 176.
StratOil: www.stratoil.wikispaces.com/Azerbaijan
UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.
World Trade Press, 2007.
1:50,000 Topographic maps.
online databases and information sources:
Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia: www.mnp.am
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic: www.eco.gov.az
Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia: www.moe.gov.ge
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia: www.menr.gov.ge
Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia: www.moa.gov.ge
Climate Change Information Center of Armenia: www.nature-ic.am
Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service: www.meteo.am
National Environmental Agency of Georgia: www.meteo.gov.ge
National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia: www.armstat.am
The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan: www.azstat.org
National Statistics Office of Georgia: www.geostat.ge
Statistical Year Book of Armenia, 2010: www.armstat.am/en/?nid=45&year=2010
57References
Association of the Power Engineers and Specialists of AzerbaijanAzerbaijanBaltic SeaCaucasus Environment OutlookSeries of American strategic reconnaissance satel-lites produced in 1959–1972Global climate model for climate research. The model was given its name as a combination of its origin, the “EC” being short for ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and the place of development of its parameterisation package, Hamburg.The Environment and Security InitiativeGlobal Climate Change ProcessesGlobal Circulation ModelGross Domestic ProductGlobal Environment FacilityGeorgian LariGlobal Energy Network InstituteGreenhouse GasGlobal Resource Information DatabaseOne of the global circulation model (GCMs)Hadley Centre Coupled Model (Coupled atmos-phere-ocean general circulation model developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom)Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3Hydrothermal CoefficientLand Use, Land-Use Change and ForestryMAGICC: User-friendly software package that takes emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulphur dioxide as input and gives glob-al-mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as output.SCENGEN: Regionalization algorithm that uses a scaling method to produce climate and climate change information on a 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid.
APESA
AZBSCEOCORONA
ECHAM
ENVSECGCCPGCMGDPGEFGELGENIGHGGRIDHAD300HADCM
HADCM3HTCLULUCFMAGICC/SCENGEN
Abbreviations and GlossaryMENRMEPMilPPPRECISSoESPOT
TWhUNUNDPUNESCO
UNFCCC
USDWEAPWHO
Chemical Combinations
CO₂CH₂N₂O
Ministry of Energy and Natural ResourcesMinistry of Environment ProtectionMillionPower PlantIn French précis — “PRAY-sea” — is based on the Hadley Centre’s regional climateState of the EnvironmentIn French: Système Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre. Probationary System of Earth Observation — high-resolution, optical imaging Earth observa-tion satellite system operating from spaceTerawatt hourUnited NationsUnited Nations Development ProgrammeThe United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cul-tural OrganizationUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUnited States DollarWater Evaluation and Planning ModelWorld Health Organization
Carbon dioxideMethaneNitrous oxide
58 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
The Georgian artist, Nina Joerchjan, has produced a set of collages to illustrate the Zoï Environment Network publica-tion, Climate Change in the South Caucasus. At first sight: beautiful renderings of mountain landscapes, vineyards, fruits, animals and archaic architecture. In the long tradi-tion of the region’s folk art, many scenes — such as Ararat mountain — are immediately recognizable as Caucasian icons. The images evoke Pirosmani, although people — the main subject of the famous Georgian painter at the turn of the twentieth century — are almost completely absent. But why use such a traditional and happy style to illustrate
such a grim and existential subject as climate change? The answer comes in a second, closer look that the artwork deserves. New elements appear: an oil platform, a ski lift and a somewhat strange, turtle-like structure giving the Tbilisi skyline a new look. Even without these modern ele-ments, a sense of fragility becomes obvious. An idyll in the process of being destroyed, nature and livelihoods being threatened, climate change being real. The artist has found a silent, non-alarmist tone to show that things are still there, however fragile. It is up to us to preserve this unique herit-age. There may still be time.
59Abbreviation/nina joerchjan
International Environment HouseChemin de Balexert 9CH-1219 ChâtelaineGeneva, Switzerland
Zoï Environment Network Tel. +41 22 917 83 42www.zoinet.org enzoi@zoinet.org