Climate Change – International Context

Oxfam New ZealandPacific Forum Side Event

7 Sept, 2011

Climate Change – International Context

• UNFCCC – Durban expectations - Legal form - Mitigation - Finance: governance and sources

• UNFCCC - National elements • Climate Finance - Bunkers

State of play - legal form

• LCA and KP track• KP expires 31 Dec 2012• Likely, KP next phase will be

‘transitional’, one or more years, • Likely KP rules preserved and docked

into long term framework• Commitments and actions all Parties,

(by 2015) while respecting CBDR

State of play for mitigationDeveloped country mitigationIPCC called for 25-40% by 2020, from 1990 levels, legally binding

targets.

Bottom up offers, from 1990 levels:• Norway: 40%• EU: 30% if others do• NZ: 10-20% with conditions• US: stabilisation to -3%• Total Annex 1: 11-18%

• Oxfam: 40% below 1990, majority ofeffort through domestic action

• AOSIS: 45%

State of play for mitigationDeveloping country mitigation

15-30% below business-as-usual by 2020. No targets, but actions, supported by finance and technology from developed countries.

Key issues:• Nature of ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions’• Monitoring, reporting and verification• Carbon markets• Public finance for mitigation support• Deforestation• Responsibilities of China and others

Oxfam: mitigation actions for developing countries, supported by finance and technology

Expected mitigation pledges show minimum 4Gt gap to <2ºC trajectory (450ppm)

Low end of pledged ranges

High end of pledged ranges

Durban expectations for mitigation

• Move to top end of current pledges• Agree scale of gigatonne gap &

assessed effort sharing to close gap• Close loopholes• Agree rules eg. MRV, ICA• Developing Country design NAMAs• Agree rules for Registry • Anticipate AR5 due Oct 2014

Durban expectations for finance

• Green Climate Fund – appoint Board• 2013-2020 finance trajectory to

US$100bn/yr• Scaled up govt budgetary assessed

contributions for developed countries• Plus sources: FTT, Bunkers, SDR• MRV

What is likely at Durban?

• Scenarios - multilateral, stumbles along, breakdown

• Legal form - next phase will be ‘transitional’, one or more years, KP rule preserved and docked into long term framework

• Mitigation - need for market certainty, push to get as much certainty on mitigation

• Finance - design Global Green Fund, resistance to talk about sources (bunkers)

• Friends of Fossil Fuel Reforms

UNFCCC – Developing country national level

• Mitigation - submit NAMAs to registry • Submit NAPs • Finance – design national/regional governance• Advocate for adaptation and sources eg

bunkers• REDD• Ensure gender representation

What are bunkers?

Bunkers

• Most promising source, new, predictable• Growing emissions 2.7% global• Multilateral market based mechanism• Bunker fuel levy, developing countries

compensated, • US$10bn to GCF• At Durban, urge IMO to design, provide

principles on no net incidence to developing countries and GHG savings to be achieved

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