Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

Herman.Sievering@colorado.edu Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.

and

Environmental Science & Statistics Professor University of Colorado

Intergovt. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Member, 2007 Working Group I, The Science Basis Reviewer: IPCC 2013/2014 WGI & WGIII reports 

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CO2 and Methane (CH4) concentrations: past 400,000 years

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions to the Atmosphere (IPCC)

Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR)

Some “bottom line” SLR bullets:

*SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050

*60 to 240 million, perhaps more, displaced by 2100

*9% of Florida lost with 1-meter sea level rise

When might 1-meter (3’ 4”) SLR occur??

The BIG Three

*Heating & Expansion of Oceans is, now, causing about one-half (~½) of SLR per year

*Glacier & Arctic Region melt: ~1/4th of SLR per year **GreenlandGreenland & Antarctic Melt: ~~1/5th of SLR per year Greenland ice melt is 480% greater than in early 1990s Key Study: Science, 30 Nov 2012, pg. 1138

SLR: How much? How soon? - Slow, Insidious** impact

Mean Global Sea Level Rise (SLR), ft. & in.

Year Best Estimate

2010 8” - measured; rapid rate

2030 1’ 1”

2050 1’ 9” ≈ equal to ½ meter

2100 3’ 4” ≈ equal to 1 meter

Range of 2100 Global Mean SLR: 2’ to 4’ __________________

**eg: 1’ SLR “payback to us” even if coal & oil emissions stop now!

Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR)

Some “bottom line” bullets: if 1-meter SLR by 2100

*SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050

*60 to 240 million people may be displaced by 2100

About 1 million homes lost in Florida - NOT counting the 65% of Florida’s <1m-above-sea-level land set for development -- Insurance Industry Estimate Needed: a present-day SLR impact; not just 2050/2100 NYC Case Study: Super-storm Sandy

Super-storm Sandy

1’ water depth due to human-caused SLR (as of 2012)

New York City (NYC) Case Study Super-storm Sandy: US Climate Change Teaching Moment

Sea Level Rise: 1’ of the NYC 11’ surge 11’ surge is nearly double previous 300 yr. record surge

By 2100, NYC’s SLR will be more than 1 meter 1 meter - greater than the 2100 global mean SLR of 2’ to 4’

3’ to 5’ SLR for NYC by 2100

Regional Sea Level Rise: 2091-2100 mean vs 1900, IPCC

Purple = 4’ Dark Brown = 3.5’ Red = 3’ Yellow = 2’

Super-storm Sandy and Human-caused Climate Change 80-90% of 1’ NYC SLR (since 1900) is due to we humans Part of 5°F above mean ocean Temp in Sandy-birth-area due to us

Energy uptake along warmer ocean waters path

YES, there was a human contribution to the damage caused by super-storm Sandy! Impossible to say how much.

Some Solutions after Break

Solutions: Government Driven Renewable Energy: Govt. credits/subsidies needed - Renewables subsidy <50 B-$s/yr; coal, oil & gas subsidies >600 B-$s/yr

Wind: cost less than coal; “30-coal-plant” Chinese farm

Solar: rapid growth; Germany/European Union; China

Geothermal/Hydro/Tidal/other; underutilized

Solutions in Private Sector; Insurance-Background

Insurance Industry: largest; 7% of Global Economy

“Weather catastrophe” payouts up 400% in 2 decades

~40% of total payout funds

Munich Reinsurance: largest insurer of Insurance Co.s

concluded - in 1973 - there is:

“insurance risk from human-caused climate change” Those that must know, do know

Climate Change activities, 52 countries; UC-Berkeley Study

Insurance Ind. Climate Change funds (since 70s): > $95,000,000,000

Solutions: Insurance Industry ($s since 1970s)*

Climate Change Mitigation Investmt., 24 Billion $s

Public Awareness & Public Policy Initiatives, 31 Billion $s

Financing Client Loss Prevention, Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation Projects, 57 Billion $$s

- e.g., forest restoration in catastrophe-prone areas

Climate Science: IPCC/Insurer Modeling, 21 Billion $s

__________ * The Greening of Insurance, Science Dec. 14 2012, 1424-1425

Mangrove Reforestation, Japanese Insurance Co.: increased resilience to storm damages - carbon sequestration - company is carbon neutral since 2008

Solutions: biggest Personal Choice impact Hybrid Cars with electric plug-in* - Ford C-Max Energie: ~$28,000

- Toyota Prius: ~$28,000

- Chevy Volt: ~$27,000

Electric Cars*

- Ford Focus E: ~$30,000

- Nissan Leaf: ~$29,000

*Fed rebates applied and 2013 $ amounts

Extra Slides: the following two slides may be useful

background material for presenters and museum educators