Post on 26-Dec-2015
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Climate Change
Water stress, floods, ...Climate Change
Water stress, floods, ...Walter Mendoza
mumbaixavier’sjuly 02, 2011
Key issues
350 ppm
2°C
Disaster? Or Catastrophe?
Tipping elements Processes, particularly sensitive to climate change
Arctic sea ice meltingArctic sea ice melting
Deep water Deep water formationformation
Antarctic ozone holeAntarctic ozone holeWest Antarctic West Antarctic ice sheetice sheet
Amazon Amazon vegetationvegetation
Marine Marine carbon cyclecarbon cycle
Indian Indian monsoonmonsoonSaharaSahara
El NiñoEl NiñoSouthern OscillationSouthern Oscillation
HimalayaHimalayasnow coversnow cover
Methane Methane outgasingoutgasing
Arctic ozoneArctic ozone depletiondepletion
Greenland Greenland ice sheetice sheet
Climate change and water
• Superimposed on the existing crisis
• Surface air temperature in India is going up at the rate of 0.4 degrees Centigrade
• Rainfall patterns changing: more extreme rainy days; less number of rainy days; decline in summer rainfall
• Total runoff in most rivers will increase, cause more flooding; runoff will be less in lean season
Climate change and water
• Glaciers melting at an accelerated rate, may cause increased flooding in Himalayan rivers and subsequent
• Increase in flash floods• Glacier-fed rivers may eventually run
dry
Climate change and water
• Rising sea levels and coastal erosion will gobble up land
• Coastal freshwater aquifers turning saline
• Large scale displacement
• Increased extreme disasters (drought, floods, cyclones, etc)
Health impact
• As temperatures soar, humidity increases, as water becomes scarce, disasters such as floods increase,
so will • Diarrhoea, cholera, malaria and
other vector borne disease • Increased drought, leading to
Poor water quality, dehydration, chronic low water consumption, poor sanitation and hygiene
Social impact
• Poor impacted the most, sustained poverty
• Increased inequity • Affect on livelihood• Social unrest, increased conflicts
Over the last 25 years, Gangotri glacier has retreated more than 850 meters
•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.
•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.
•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Agriculture
Coastal Zones
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR
•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period
•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
Coastal Zones
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR
•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period
•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages
Key Vulnerable River Basins
Health
Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone
The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.
Endemic regions of malaria
Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s
Responses
• NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission
• State Action Plans
National Water Mission
• Studies on Management of Water Resources
• Management & regulation of Groundwater resources– Mandating water-harvesting and artificial recharge – Enhancing recharge of deep zones of aquifers– Mandatory water assessments and audits for industrial
waste disposal– Regulation of power tariffs for irrigation
Responses
• NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission
• State Action Plans
Responses
• NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission
• State Action Plans
National Water Mission (contd.)• Upgradation of storage systems for freshwater
& drainage systems for wastewater– Prioritizing vulnerable watersheds– Rejuvenation of old water tanks– Models for urban storm water flows– Strengthen links with afforestation & wetland
conservation– Enhance storage capacities in hydro projects
• Conservation of wetlands
• Development of Desalination techniques
Responses
Responses
Responses
mumbai
mumbai
Mithi river
The Beginning of
the End
Thank you