Climate Disruption as Catalyst · risks - flood, heatwaves, fuel poverty • Flood damage - mental...

transcript

Social Justice Forum of St Anne’s Church, Kew

Human Development and Climate Change

15th May 2018

Climate Disruption as Catalyst Ian Christie: Senior Lecturer, Centre for Environment and

Sustainability, University of Surrey; Fellow, WWF-UK

Climate Disruption as Catalyst• Either… for global de-development -

rising injustice, inequality, poverty, hunger, ill-health, ecological degradation…

• Or… for global re-valuation of what matters to us in human flourishing and radical reform of economies and societies for restorative, sustainable prosperity (see the Centre for Understanding Sustainable Prosperity, led by Prof. Tim Jackson: www.cusp.ac.uk coordinated from University of Surrey)

Key points• CC as result of development • CC as threat multiplier • CC as underminer of progress • CC as Wicked Problem • CC as ‘perfect moral storm’ • CC as imperative for re-development • SDGs: we’re all ‘developing countries’ • CC as catalyst for rethinking and

restorative economy of sustainable prosperity - the CUSP agenda

Source: W. Steffen, W. Broadgate, L. Deutsch, O. Gaffney and C. Ludwig (2015), ‘The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration’, The Anthropocene Review. See also: http://www.futureearth.org/blog/2015-jan-16/great-acceleration

Global Development: sustainable?

• The European pattern of development, created piecemeal over centuries, has gone global

• Can we have this kind of development in a world of 9-11bn? Or more?

• Is the growth model of development and progress self-undermining?

Source: W. Steffen, W. Broadgate, L. Deutsch, O. Gaffney and C. Ludwig (2015), ‘The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration’, The Anthropocene Review. See also: http://www.futureearth.org/blog/2015-jan-16/great-acceleration

Climate disruption as threat multiplier• Internal and external displacement of people • Risks of instability inside and between nations • Land use conflicts: farmers vs pastoralists • Food supply risks: floods, heatwaves, droughts,

soil degradation, invasive species • Water shortages: see the case of Cape Town,

2018 • Health risks: flood, heatwaves, droughts,

invasive species, spread of disease vectors • Cost of defensive expenditures: economic

opportunity cost of emergency adaptations

Health and climate: reports in 2015• Lancet - UCL Commission on health and

climate change • Rockefeller - Lancet Commission on planetary

health and implications for healthcare systems • Risks of major reverses in public health quality

worldwide • Opportunities for major ‘co-benefits’ from

systematic action to mitigate climate change and promote ecological health

Health and climate: more connections• Climate disruption and health

risks - flood, heatwaves, fuel poverty

• Flood damage - mental ill-health as well as risk of injury

• Harm to pollinators such as bees - impacts on food supplies

• Unintended consequences - eg risk of cancers from higher radon exposure in houses due to reduced ventilation following energy efficiency measures (J Milner e al, BMJ, 348, Feb.1st 2014)

Climate change: undermining progress

Ecosystem disruption and development

• Nazmul Chowdhury: • ‘…forget making

poverty history, climate change will make poverty permanent”.

A political ‘WICKED PROBLEM’

• Distance in space and time from impacts • Short-term costs for uncertain long-term

gains • Invisibility in everyday political process • An ‘Inconvenient Truth’: climate change

goes to heart of the energy basis and economic engine of industrial world

• The biggest Collective Action Problem in history

• And… an ethical ‘wicked problem’

Carbon inequality: emissions and emitters

SOURCE:OXFAM

Stephen Gardiner: climate & ethics

The Perfect Moral Storm (Oxford UP, Oxford, 2011) Dispersed causes & effects Fragmentation of agency Institutional inadequacy Injustice to poor/unborn Temptation to ‘moral corruption’ in affluent world in the face of climate change challenges and moral questions:

-complacency; -unreasonable doubt; -delusion; -selective attention; -distraction; -false witness; -hypocrisy

Planetary Boundaries: the latest framework for understanding (un)sustainability on Earth

•Johann Rockstrom et al, 2009 and 2015

•Planetary system boundaries

•Mapping of ‘safe operating space’ for development within limits of ecological resilience

• Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre

Refining the Planetary Boundaries concept: Kate Raworth (2017)

The ‘Sustainability Equation’

• I =PAT • Our Impact is a

function of Population, Affluence (consumption per capita) and Technology

• If we won’t or can’t tackle P and A, we have to rely on T…

Applying I=PAT to climate and SD• See Tim Jackson,

Prosperity without Growth, Routledge, 2017

• I=PAT used to indicate gains in T to reduce carbon intensity of economy against assumptions of increases in P and A

• Result: for fair outcome for A in the Global South, we need a 55-fold decrease in carbon intensity by 2050

• This requires unprecedented transformational efforts…

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/Figure 22: Emissions pathways to give 75% chance of limiting global warming to 2ºC

The longer we delay, the steeper the path to decarbonisation

The agenda of the CUSP programme led by Prof. Tim Jackson…

• In the light of this diagnosis… • What can Sustainable Economies, Societies and Biosphere

be like? • Can they be based on reform and innovation in the

economic systems we have? Can they be based on Growth?

• Or do we need a transformation in economic systems and in societal values?

• What if we can’t have indefinite economic growth? • What are the pathways we can take for a cooperative,

just and peaceful transition to climate stability and sustainable prosperity?

CC BY-NC 2.0 :: Geraint Rowland / Flickr

ESRC Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity

What can prosperity possibly look like in a world of social and environmental limits?

www.cusp.ac.uk

• THE GOOD: • Paris Accord on climate, 2015 • Sustainable Development

Goals 2015-2030 • Legal / financial action

against Big Oil/Coal • Action from the “5 Cs”:

• Cities • Civil Society / Churches • California • China • Corporations backing

strong climate action

• THE BAD AND THE UGLY: • CC is still marginal in global

economic policymaking

• Impact of global debt crisis

• Lack of mechanisms for verification and enforcement of law

• Global threats seem to be growing riskier

• Lack of political will in West to take a lead

• Inadequate financing

Where are we now with climate action?

How will SDGs be put into practice? Can they help mitigate climate disruption?

The SDGs: 17 Goals, 169 Targets•Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere

•Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

•Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

•Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all

•Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

•Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

•Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all

•Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

•Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation

•Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries

•Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

•Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

•Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts*

•(*Acknowledging that the UNFCCC is the primary international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the global response to climate change)

•Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

•Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

•Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

•Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

From the UN’s 2017 SDGs progress report• “The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2017 reviews progress made towards

the 17 Goals in the second year of implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The report is based on the latest available data. It highlights both gains and challenges as the international community moves towards full realization of the ambitions and principles espoused in the 2030 Agenda.

• “While considerable progress has been made over the past decade across all areas of development, the pace of progress observed in previous years is insufficient to fully meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. Time is therefore of the essence. Moreover, as the following pages show, progress has not always been equitable. Advancements have been uneven across regions, between the sexes, and among people of different ages, wealth and locales, including urban and rural dwellers. Faster and more inclusive progress is needed to accomplish the bold vision articulated in the 2030 Agenda.”

• https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/files/report/2017/TheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsReport2017.pdf

Prefiguring green futures: local activism

Cities, communities, regions: renewables, green building, local food initiatives, sustainable mobility policies, etc

Where do we stand?• We have most of the technologies we need to

make transitions to a sustainable economy…

• We have the money, evidence and knowledge…

• We have the grand global and national plans…

• What we lack:

! political willpower to invest in and make a priority of sustainable economy and ecological stewardship

! processes to unlock investments for a sustainable future

! a critical mass of corporations committed to genuinely sustainable production and consumption

! a critical mass of informed and concerned citizens with voice

Church action

An interesting and unexpected finding• 2007 - survey of expert

opinion by Environment Agency on measures for ecological sustainability

• Top - rapid gains in energy efficiency and big cuts in fossil fuel use

• 2nd - serious action and advocacy from the world’s religious traditions

Forging faith-SD links! Patriarch Bartholomew (photo),

Orthodox Church: multi-faith eco-initiatives since 1980s

! Church of England: Church and Earth vision / strategy report, 2009; Shrinking the Footprint programme; statements on environment since 1970s

! Many similar texts and related projects from Anglican denominations

! Interfaith Power & Light network in USA

! Alliance of Religions and Conservation (ARC) : www.arcworld.org 27

Case study: ARC• Alliance of Religions &

Conservation, 1995 - • Director - Martin Palmer • Research, coordination and

brokerage of partnerships for SD between faiths worldwide

• EG Green Pilgrimage Network • 2008-2009: ARC with UNDP:

! 7-Year Plans for Generational Change ! Environment / SD Plans from all the

major faith traditions ! Launched at Windsor UN conference,

2nd-4th November 2009: see www.arcworld.org

Church action in 2015! Pope Francis: Laudato Si’ encyclical on ecology,

theology of creation care and ‘ecological conversion’

! Lambeth Declaration led by Archbishop of Canterbury, 16th June 2015: multi-faith call to action on climate change

! Many Christian and other faith-based campaigns and projects in run-up to Paris COP - eg Our Voices

! Islamic Scholars’ Declaration on Climate Action, August 2015: http://islamicclimatedeclaration.org/islamic-declaration-on-global-climate-change/ 31

What the Encyclical covers• Hearing ‘the cry of the earth and the

cry of the poor’ (Francis 2015, para 49): overview of the crisis of unsustainable development

• Theological analysis of our relationship to God and Earth

• Analysis of the ‘human roots of the ecological crisis’

! A new eco-theological vision of sustainable development - Integral Ecology

Opportunities for the Church• The reception for Pope

Francis’s Encyclical • Goodwill from NGOs,

big business • Partnerships • A global ecumenical

opportunity? • Greening of

investments • A fresh expression of

the Gospel

Climate: Local Action Counts• Global deals and

national plans can only be put into practice locally....

• ... by households and organisations - including churches...

• ...through investments and changes in the way we live

Christ Church West Wimbledon

Eco-team in action

• Local church action counts

• Measuring: doing energy audits and joining Eco-Church

• Spending • Inspiring and

Worshipping: Creation-tide

• Links & resources

Measuring• Measure the energy use in church and

make a plan for energy saving and cutting carbon emissions: see http://www.churchcare.co.uk/shrinking-the-footprint/ways-to-take-action/energy-efficiency/audit

• Do a walk-around audit of energy use in church buildings

• Do the Eco-Church survey - see A Rocha Eco-Church website

• Get children involved in measuring and energy saving

• At home - get an energy assessment and see how to save money and cut emissions

Eco-Church - a new resource

• Partnership: A Rocha, C of E, Tearfund, Christian Aid, Methodists

• A great way to build on what you’ve already done in church

• Free resources • Awards scheme • http://ecochurch.arocha.org.uk

Spending • Do an audit of church spending and what gets wasted...

• How can we purchase better? Fair trade, local food, recycled goods - and using less energy and water and car/plane trips

• Can we invest in Green energy, maybe with others in diocese?

• Can we use StF’s Parish Buying scheme and Green Energy Tariffs?

• What will we do with the savings?

Inspiring, Worshipping• See the Green Bible for

inspiration and discovery • Highlight the messages of

climate justice and sharing of the Earth in services, celebrations, music, art

• Connect with others - churches, schools, universities, hospitals, Transition Towns, National Trust, big retailers (eg IKEA)

At Wintershall, Life of Christ open-air play and worship - Surrey 2012

Inspiring and Worshipping: Creationtide

• Link to Earth Overshoot Day

• Links to Harvest thanksgiving

• Time for reflection and celebration on theme of Care for Creation

Sustainability at my church, Christ Church W Wimbledon• Eco-editions of parish

magazine • 2 community eco-

festivals • Fair Trade stall/policy • Sustainability spec.

for new church hall project

• Weekly Green Prayer • Photography projects:

celebrating Creation

Some contacts for Church action on environment & climate

ARC http://www.arcworld.org CHURCH OF ENGLAND http://www.churchcare.co.uk/

shrinking-the-footprint/taking-action CLIMATE OUTREACH http://climateoutreach.org/

resources/climate-change-faith/ DIOCESE OF SOUTHWARK http://

www.southwark.anglican.org/what/environmental-policy

DIOCESE OF LONDON http://www.london.anglican.org/mission/shrinking-the-footprint

ECO-CHURCH http://ecochurch.arocha.org.uk GREEN CHRISTIAN http://www.greenchristian.org.uk/

Research resources on SD• University of Surrey and partners: Centre for the Understanding of

Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP). See www.cusp.ac.uk

• University of Surrey and partners: RESOLVE and Sustainable Lifestyles Research Group - sustainable energy consumption, behaviour change, lifestyles. See http://www.sustainablelifestyles.ac.uk

• The Yale Forum on Religion and Ecology. See http://fore.yale.edu

• The John Ray Initiative on Christianity, ecology and science. See http://www.jri.org.uk/introduction/

• University of Sussex / Institute of Development Studies: STEPS - integrating development studies with science and technology assessment. See http://www.steps-centre.org/index.html

• Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre and planetary boundaries programme. See http://www.stockholmresilience.org/

• Future Earth programmes on research for global sustainability. Future Earth is a global platform for international scientific collaboration, with a ‘federation’ of projects and other initiatives related to Global Environmental Change. See http://www.futureearth.org/

Worth reading: Churches and SD•Bell, C et al (eds) (2013), Living Lightly, Living Faithfully: religious faiths and

the future of sustainability, Faraday Inst./KLICE : Cambridge •Christie, I et al (2009), Church and Earth 2009-16, Church of England: London •Evans, A & Gower, R (2015), The Restorative Economy, Tearfund: London •Gottlieb, R (2007), A Greener Faith: religious environmentalism and our

planet’s future, OUP: Oxford •Grim, J & Tucker, ME (2014), Ecology and Religion, Island Press: Washington

DC •Maibach, E., Leiserowitz, A., Roser-Renouf, C., Myers, T., Rosenthal, S. &

Feinberg, G. (2015), The Francis Effect: How Pope Francis Changed the Conversation about Global Warming, George Mason University and Yale University. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication

•Northcott, M (2014), A Political Theology of Climate Change, SPCK: London •Pope Francis I (2015), Encyclical Letter: Laudato Si’, Vatican Press: Rome •White, L (1967), “The historical roots of our ecological crisis”, Science 155

(3767), pp. 1203–1207

Recommended reading on climate change and sustainability

•Severine Deneulin, Wellbeing, Justice and Development Ethics, Earthscan, London, 2014

• Ian Gough, Heat, Greed and Human Need, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017 •Tim Jackson, Prosperity without Growth, Routledge, Abingdon, 2017 •Jonathon Porritt, The World We Made, Phaidon, London, 2013 •Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics, Allen Lane, London, 2017 •Johann Rockstrom and Matthias Klum, Big World, Small Planet, Max Strom

Publishing, Stockholm, 2015 •Jeffrey Sachs, The Age of Sustainable Development, Columbia UP, New York,

2015 •WWF, Living Planet Report, WWF: Gland, 2016

Worth watching: films on sustainability

•The End of the Line (fisheries and sustainability) •Into Eternity (nuclear waste and ethics of our relationship to people in the far future)

•Manufactured Landscapes (the transformation of the Earth by industry - especially in China)

•Home (Earth from the air) •No Impact Man (an American family tries to live sustainably) •The Overview Effect (the impact of seeing the Earth from space)

•Planetary (becoming aware of the fragility of the Earth and the values needed to sustain it for us and future people)

Thank you for your interest

• i.christie@surrey.ac.uk • www.cusp.ac.uk • www.surrey.ac.uk/ces

Photo: conference on church action on climate change, Coventry Cathedral, September 2015

Climate Disruption as Catalyst · risks - flood, heatwaves, fuel poverty • Flood damage - mental...

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