Post on 30-May-2020
transcript
CLIMATE SMART LAND USE
Obstacles and opportunities for mitigation and
adaptation
Saskia Visser, Alterra, Wageningen UR; Climate KIC meeting,
Utrecht, June, 2015
Outline
Trends and challenges
Emissions from agriculture, their origin
Variance of productivity and emissions in EU; opportunity for
efficiency gains?
Climate change; challenges and opportunities
Mitigation efforts and adaptation opportunities; some
examples
The Climate Kic solution: The CSA Booster
Trends (selected) .....
Agriculture to meet twin challenge of feeding more people with
higher demand for meat and high-calorie diets and
simultaneously minimize its global environmental impacts
● Search for higher contribution from biomass to renewable energy with low ecosystem impact
● More and more critical attitudes among consumers
● Shifts in agro-ecosystems induced by climate change
Need for changes in agriculture and our food system
Challenges;
towards Climate Smart Land Use
Define and implement action before problems have started to occur or surface
- need for strong storytelling and valid(ated) projections
Promote and finance actions on emission reduction schemes with economic
benefit and competitive advantages and refrain from legislative actions -
sticks and carrots discussion
Food is both a local and global production platform. When is local better and
how do we recognize that?
Know what we eat: How much do we buy and eat? And waste and recycle?
What do we buy and eat? Are we aware of the impact?
Sources of GHG from agriculture
Emissions per product: major differences!
Plant food
Animal food
Lesschen et al., 2013
On variability: comparison of pilot farms in 10
EU countries – no single solution/golden bullet
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Milk
pro
du
ctio
n in
kg
/ha
Milk production in kg/cow
Annual milk production in 2011 per cow and ha
BF
BWFB
FL
FN
GE
IN
IR
Dairyman project 2009-2013
10 EU MSs & Pilot farms - GHG emissions
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BF BW FB FL FN GE NI IR LU NL
To
tal G
HG
pe
r to
n m
ilk
(k
g C
O2
-eq
)
To
tal G
HG
pe
r h
a (
kg
CO
2-e
q)
Total GHG per ha Total GHG per ton milk
Dairyman project 2009-2013
Climate Challenges and opportunities
Climate change prospects
10 Source: Climate change projections for Europe based on an ensemble of
regional climate model simulations provided by the EURO-CORDEX
initiative
Climate change (will) affect(s) livestock
sector
IPCC AR5:
“High temperature and air humidity
during breeding increased cattle
mortality risk by 60% in Italy
(Crescio et al., 2010)”.
“Climate change may adversely
affect dairy production in Southern
Europe because of heat stress in
lactating cows [medium confidence]
[23.4.2]’.
Mean relative changes in
water-limited crop yield
simulated by the
ClimateCrop model for
the 2050s compared
with 1961–1990 for 12
different climate models
projections under the
A1B emission scenario
Water availability for irrigation
Mitigation (and adaptation options)
Land use and change: adaptation & mitigation
RIVM: GJ vd Born et al. 2003
GHG balance in peat meadow area
UNEP study “Drawing down N2O”
Oenema O et al. (2014) Reducing Nitrous Oxide Emissions from the Global Food System (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability)
Review possible strategies for less GHG
Food chain analysis
Scenario analysis: using the top-down approach model of Eric Davidson (lead author of Chapter 3 of the UNEP study)
5R-strategy to increase resource use efficiency
Incentives & technologies for
1. Reduce losses, from the whole food chain
2. Reuse and recycle nutrient elements
3. Reduce and replace inputs, where possible
4. Recovery and recycle elements from wastes
5. Redefining systems, where needed
Sutton et al., 2013
Mitigation strategies work: N2O emissions in 2030
and 2050 from 5 coherent packages of measures
Scenario 2030 2050
Business as usual (BAU) 6.4 7.5
1. Improved Crop production 5.7 6.3
2. (1) + Improved animal production 5.4 5.6
3. (1,2) + Improved manure mngmt 5.0 4.8
4. (1,2,3) + Improved food utilization 4.6 4.1
5. (1,2,3,4) + Less animal protein 4.1 3.3
Oenema O et al. (2014) Reducing Nitrous Oxide Emissions from the Global Food System (submitted to Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability)
Italy
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CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Mit
igati
on
po
ten
tial (%
of
SO
C s
tock)
Poland
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Mit
igati
on
po
ten
tial (%
of
SO
C s
tock)
Spain
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
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0.060
CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Mit
igati
on
po
ten
tial (%
of
SO
C s
tock)
Scotland
-0.010
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Mit
igati
on
po
ten
tial (%
of
SO
C s
tock)
Denmark
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Mit
igati
on
po
ten
tial (%
of
SO
C s
tock)
Bulgaria
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
CC ZT RT RM1 RM2 FA FT RS AL AF GG
Mit
igati
on
po
ten
tial (%
of
SO
C s
tock)
PICCMAT: strong EU regional differences
Climate change and adaptation
Impact depends on vulnerability of nature and agricultural (soil and water) systems
Technological solutions (soilless food, less fossil energy, biobased and bioenergy) are not always acceptable to the public
Barriers for adoption of CSA Solutions?
Climate-Smart Agriculture Booster
A European business solution to climate change
CSA Booster Team - March 2015
What does CSA Booster do?
Connecting providers and users of CSA solutions to European networks and value chains
Providing science-based quality stamps and certification
Focus on dairy/meat and horticultural fruit sectors
Starting in the Netherlands, France, UK, Switzerland and Italy
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For whom?
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Food industries : secure supply of agricultural products; reducing their climate impact on the food value chain
Farmer associations and agri-cooperatives interested to learn from experiences in other European countries
Technology and service providers: finding customers and investors in Europe; demonstration proof
Policy makers: stakeholder input for policy design, policy assessment
Our Service Modules
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• European wide Solution Broker for unique portfolio of innovative CSA solutions.
1. CSA Solution Hub
• Quantification and verification of the impact of CSA solutions
2. CSA Impact Assessment and Labelling
• Aids policymakers to implement Rural Development Plans in context of CAP and provide advice to solution providers and users.
3. CSA Policy Hub
• Supports solution developers to develop business models, provides access to CSA Partner Network and investors.
4. CSA Business Developer and Market Connection Hub
• Provides education, support and training to farmers/end-users and enables feedback to solution providers.
5. CSA Education, Training & Co-creation Forum
• Seeks alternative supply chain designs to increase climate benefits both upstream and downstream.
6. CSA Supply Chain & Circular Economy Developer
Where to find the CSA Booster?
www.csabooster.eu
Video: http://www.csabooster.eu/csa-booster-video
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Interested???
What is your CSA SOLUTION??
Join the CSA Booster Network!
Broad Science Conclusions
Climate change calls for a productive, resilient agricultural
sector with minimal GHG emissions
Regional variance may offer great opportunity for efficiency
gains
Region specific solutions work
Mitigation efforts strategy preferred over individual measures
Innovative technological solutions are available, yet only partly
used
Investments needed in education, training, demonstration and
development of site- and region specific technologies