Melinda Koslow & Celia Haven

Great Lakes Regional Center

National Wildlife Federation

koslowm@nwf.org

havenc@nwf.org

Jill Ryan

Freshwater Future

jill@freshwaterfuture.org

Wednesday September 12, 2012Climate-Smart Restoration Success: Local and Landscape Scale

Examples and Tools

Order of Workshop

1. Landscape-Scale Process & Example

2. Online Tools Demo

3. Community-Scale Process & Example

Is Your Coastal Restoration Project

Climate-Smart?

6-step Guidelines for the Great Lakes

download a copy at:

http://www.nwf.org/glcoastalfuture

Testing Guidance On-The-Ground & Getting Results

512 acres, jobs created,

$1.3 million in GLRI

Restore or enhance 512 acres of habitat to emergent wetland, bottom and upland forest, sedge meadow and grassland, providing hydrologic reconnection to Lake Erie within the Maumee AOC and in a Globally Important Bird Area. Restoration work is currently starting and will conclude in 2013.

Lake Erie

91-acre Helle tract, reforesting approximately 53 acres of uplands and floodplain and restoring 16 acres of wetlands

Step One: Identify Restoration Goals and Targets

• Restore water quality

• Enlarge floodplain

• Increase wildlife and migratory bird stopover habitat

• Fish passage

Step Two: Identify Restoration Project Approaches

• Take 53 acres of agricultural land out of production and reforested

• Plant native species known to be favored by migrating landbirds, such as dogwood, hackberry, oak, and willow

Key Climate-Smart Questions

• Given the life span of trees (50-100 years and beyond), under what climate scenarios should we prepare?

• Is it too early to consider planting species of a different range?

• Is it more urgent to plan for increasing air temperatures or uncertain precipitation conditions?

Step Three: Assess Vulnerability of Targets/Project Approaches to Climate Change

1. Sensitivity of species or ecosystem2. Exposure of species or ecosystem to

climate change3. Adaptive Capacity – ability of

species or ecosystem to deal with, survive through or adapt to changes

Find Scanning the Conservation Horizon at www.nwf.org/vulnerabilityguide

Bl

Assessing VulnerabilityCurrently looking at vulnerability of four different species (as requested by project partners)

4. Black Willow

1. Flowering Dogwood 2. Bur Oak

3. Pin Oak

Sensitivity - Water

4. Black Willow

1. Flowering Dogwood 2. Bur Oak

3. Pin Oak

Thrive in moist, well-drained areas

Thrive in flood plains and swampy areas

Thrive in swampy, low lands of forested areas and seasonal standing water

Thrive in wetlands and alongside streams and rivers, as well as marshy areas

Sensitivity - Range1. Flowering Dogwood 2. Bur Oak

Sensitivity - Range3. Pin Oak 4. Black Willow

Exposure

Climate Change Impacts of Concern (as a result of climate drivers exercise with local land managers)

– Seiche (high wind, innundation)

– Summer drought– Spring flooding,

runoff to Lake Erie– Year-long warmer

air temps

Photo courtesy of NOAA

Exposure –Spring Precipitation

Maps generated on Climate Wizard, High A2, Ensemble Model www.climatewizard.orgBase climate projections downscaled by Maurer et al., (2007) Santa Clara University.

Spring Precip Change Next 40 years Spring Precip Change Next 70 years

Models in agreement on increases of precipitation spring over next 70 years.Intensity and duration will also be a large factor to consider.

Exposure - TemperatureMaps generated on Climate Wizard, High A2, Ensemble Model www.climatewizard.orgBase climate projections downscaled by Maurer et al., (2007) Santa Clara University.

Annual Temp Change Next 40 years Annual Temp Change Next 70 years

Models show annual warming temperatures of 4.5 ºF to 6.5 ºF over next 70 years.

Exposure –Summer DroughtMaps generated on Climate Wizard, High A2, Ensemble Model www.climatewizard.orgBase climate projections downscaled by Maurer et al., (2007) Santa Clara University.And Hayhoe et al. (2010) Regional Climate Change Projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research.

Summer Precip Change Next 40 years – Hayhoe paper (SRES A1)

Summer Precip Change Next 40 years – Climate Wizard (SRES A2)

Adaptive Capacity

USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas

Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson., S. Matthews., M. Peters. 2007-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio.

Adaptive Capacity1. Flowering Dogwood

Dogwood Model Reliability: High

Looks fairly safe

Adaptive Capacity

2. Bur Oak

Could summertime precip changes be to blame?

Bur Oak Model Reliability: Medium

Adaptive Capacity3. Pin Oak

Pin Oak Model Reliability: Medium

Adaptive Capacity4. Black Willow Black Willow Model Reliability: Low

Step Four: Identify Climate-Smart Options

• Strategies that reduce sensitivity or exposure, or enhance adaptive capacity

– Plant a diversity of species and ages that can tolerate a range of flow conditions (pin oak) and disturbances like heat waves or drought (flowering dogwood)

– Enhance riparian vegetation to cool surrounding air temperatures

– Reduce exposure to flooding by enhancing wetlands upstream

– In cases of extreme drought, a nearby water pump system could be used until trees are established

– Prevent disease and pests, if possible

Step Five: Select and Implement Management Options – Results!

Of Relevance to this Project:• Urgency – moderate to high

• Costs of climate-smart seed selection same as typical seed selection

• Technical Feasibility - high• Performance under uncertainty – water

management upstream• Availability of resources – donated box culvert

• Ability to re-plant if necessary

Step Six: Monitor, Review, Revise

QAPP plan may include: • Streamgaging – water depth and

volume• Phenological and composition changes, esp. avian• Tree species survival rates• Weather station(s)/Climate Information

– Anemometer helps identify potential seiche events – Measured air and precipitation temperatures provide a

daily (weather) and yearly, long-term (climate) record, can inform NWS Cleveland

– Build relationship with Ohio state climatologist

Review and revise with future vulnerability assessments, as climate and ecosystem models improve

Testing Guidance On-The-Ground & Getting Results

1250 linear feet of fish habitat, $350,000 in

GLRI

Upcoming

Updates include: monitoring section, plant selection, and case studies

Thank you! Melinda Koslow, Regional Program Manager koslowm@nwf.org

How to find what you’re looking for?

Online Climate Change Resources

Led by Celia Haven, havenc@nwf.org

Online Climate Change Resources

• Modeled Impacts/Vulnerabilities

• News and Blogs• Case Studies and

Knowledge Sharing• Historical Climate Info• Future Climate Change

Scenarios

Online Climate Change Resources

• CanVis:– http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/canvis/

• U.S. Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas:– http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html

West Grand Boulevard

Collaborative

Considering Climate isn’t new work to be done, it is a new way of working

1. Think about how your work could be impacted by the effects of climate change

2. Assess the information you have

3. Brainstorm how you can incorporate climate adaptation activities based on what you know about climate change

4. Start taking action, monitor your effectiveness, and talk with others to ensure your work will provide the desired impact

Jill Ryan, Executive Director231.348.8200 jill@freshwaterfuture.org

View our Climate RFP at:www.freshwaterfuture.org/grants

Thank you Kresge Foundation for your support and EcoAdapt for your expertise!