Post on 27-Dec-2015
transcript
• Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections)
• Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide
• Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources
• Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies• Improve resource use efficiency
(irrigation management, carbon & water footprints)
Education Components
How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climate-related risk?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
• Climate monitoring • Short-term and
seasonal forecasts• Translation to ag-
related variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield)
• Alert systems (freezes, disease risk)
Service ComponentsNOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field!
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions
Monitoring & Weather Forecast
• What field can I work on this afternoon?
• When can I plant my seeds?
• Should I apply N fertilizer to my fields?
• Will it be dry enough to harvest?
• Should I cut hay today?
• Cold protection tonight?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August 2013.
Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002.
Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions
Seasonal Climate Forecast
Strategic Decisions
• Best crop/variety to plant this season?
• How much should I invest in fertilizer? How to apply N?
• Should I purchase/increase crop insurance coverage?
• Marketing decisions?
• Should I invest in winter pasture or feed?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions
Long-term Climate Projections
?
?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
* Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning
Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult!
One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions”
Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions
Long-term Climate Projections
?
?
• How do I become more resilient to climate extremes?
• Should I invest in land somewhere else?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult!
One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions”
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
* Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning
Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision
Timeframe
Prio
rity
/ In
tens
ity
ClimateMonitoring
Short-termforecast
Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection
Service
Education
Should we concentrate efforts here?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Fraisse et al. 2014. Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation).
Different Perspectives of the Same Problem
Timeframe
Inte
nsity
ClimateMonitoring
Short-termforecast
Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection
Smartphones
Web-based DSS
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Examples of questions that AgroClimate can help answering
1. Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate?
2. Levels of water stress in the SE?
3. Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA?
4. Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide?
5. Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)?
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years
37%
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years
63%
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL
Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL.
ENSO ImpactsEl Niño La Niña
AgroClimate tools: Carbon footprint calculator - StrawberryAgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
SAS App• Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot
• Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions.
1. Weather and crop monitoring2. Strawberry disease alert
Available October 2014
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. Weather and crop monitoring2. Strawberry disease alert
Available October 2014
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. Weather and crop monitoring2. Strawberry disease alert
Available October 2014
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. Weather and crop monitoring2. Strawberry disease alert
Available October 2014
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
1. Weather and crop monitoring2. Strawberry disease alert
Available October 2014
C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS
Thank you!
Interested in organizing an AgroClimate workshop in your area?
Clyde FraisseAgricultural & Biological EngineeringUniversity of Florida – IFAS352-392-1864 ext 271cfraisse@ufl.edu