Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ? Uppsala, 24 May 2002 Pavel Stroev Folkecenter for...

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Coming oil crisis:will there be some surviving ?Uppsala, 24 May 2002Pavel StroevFolkecenter for Renewable EnergyDenmark

Cities traffic – zone of troubles

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ?

THE RACES

is promoting new holes for the oil

to drive and live in the traffic

We like to drive –we don’t need to love alive people

And from the ancient times

We like to live today We need simplest life So We are transferring major costs to the future And we are establishing more and more

difficult technical solutions

We still accept nuclear

and the big thermal power plants

in spite of people movements

but we are sure that the wind power is spoiling our landscape

World events and crude oil prices

Stock Values for WT producers

Change in Stock Values since 1/1-14/3 2000

05-jan 19-jan 03-feb 16-feb 02-mar 14-mar

NEG Micon KFX-index (Copenhagen) VestasSource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

THE BASIS OF THE GERMANRENEWABLE ENERGY LAW (EEG), 2000

The grid operator is obliged to connect renewable energy plants, to give priority to their electricity production, and to pay accordingly.

For new plants, the minimum tariff applies for 20 years from the year of installation (with the exception of hydropower). For existing plants, the year 2000 counts as installation year.

The tariffs are differentiated depending on energy source, location, and plant size, decreasing and limited in time.

Installed capacity in the USANo. of MW (1981-1999)

Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast

Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2000

Installed capacity in IndiaNo. of MW (1985-1999)

Installed capacity in the UKNo. of MW (1990-1999)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Installed capacity in SpainNo. of MW (1990-1999)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Installed capacity in GermanyNo. of MW (1987-1999)

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Installed capacity in DenmarkNo. of MW (1981-1999)

Dynamics of installed Wind Power Capacity per Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Selected counties of the quantity regulation system: UK, Ireland, France and Netherlands;Guaranteed price system: Germany, Denmark (up to January 2000) and Spain

The Earth is alive like we are

It is living for its own rules that we cannot change

just follow or not

Will there be some surviving?

No if we will continue Yes if we will get 100% renewable energy supply Reduction of consumption Changing the basis of society based on

knowledge New culture and quality of life

Thank you for Thank you for attention!attention!

Coming oil crisis: will there be some surviving ? Uppsala, 24 May 2002 Pavel Stroev Folkecenter for...

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