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Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
July, 2009
Todd Hale
SVP Consumer & Shopper Insights
Version 6 (1 of 3)
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 2U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
•Retailing Trends
•Retail Channel Demographics
• Buying Trends
•Consumer Trends
Topics
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 3U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends Page 3
•Retailing Trends
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April 19, 2023 Page 4U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
144,875
37,700
32,304
6,594
19,974
3,253
1,187
124,516
39,660
30,682
6,421
13,151
1,583
907
Convenience
Drug
Supermarkets
Mass Merch
Dollar Stores
Supercenters
Warehouse Clubs
20012008
Value & Convenience Winning as Evidenced by Increased Store Count
U.S. Store counts
Supermarkets have not grown at the rate of other retail channels – no wonder the channel has lost
shopping trips!
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
1,419 fewer stores since end of 2007
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April 19, 2023 Page 5U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
43,080
17,806
8,157
3,699
2,522
2,565
999
41,169
14,309
8,598
2,816
1,613
1,328
2,458
Liquor
Hardware Home Improvement*
Electronics*
Office Supply*
Bookstores
Pet Stores*
Toy Stores
20012008
Variety Winning as Evidenced by Increased Stores from Category Killers
U.S. Store counts
Competitive pressure has had negative impact on Toy Stores & Electronics; look for significant store closings in many of these
channels in 2009
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company * Counts reflect chains – not independents
Toys R Us adding expanded consumables section in 260 of
600 stores
Source: USA TODAY
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April 19, 2023 Page 6U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Walmart & Target Leading Store Expansion versus Major Grocers
992
1,510
1,606
1,602
2,484
1,348
1,689
4,244
682
1,561
1,460
549
2,433
2,088
1,056
3,219
Publix Grocery
Safeway Corp Grocery
Delhaize Grocery
SuperValu Corp Grocery
Kroger Corp Grocery
Kmart - Tot
Target - Tot
Wal-Mart - Corp*
2001
2008
*Includes Division 1, Supercenters, Neighborhood Markets & Sam’s Club
U.S. Store counts
Closing 50 poor
performers in early
2009
Due to economic slowdown, Target & Walmart to cut back expansion in 2009 & 2010
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Target to aggressively expand food offering
Kroger opens 83rd Fresh Fare
format, 3rd under Kroger banner
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April 19, 2023 Page 7U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Walmart Sales Almost as Large as Next Four Competitors
Top 10 Grocery Chains
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160
Walmart
Kroger
Safeway
Supervalu
Ahold USA
Publix
Delhaize America
H.E. Butt
A&P
Meijer
Est. Annual ACV (billions)
Source: Progressive Grocer – May 2009
$152.8
$146.3
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April 19, 2023 Page 8U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
2nd Tier of Top Grocery Chains @ $58 Billion – $2 Billion Less Than Kroger
2nd Tier Top Grocery Chains
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10
Winn-Dixie
Whole Foods
Target
Trader Joe's
Giant Eagle
Save Mart
Albertson's LLC
Military
Hy-Vee
Wegmans
Est. Annual ACV (billions)
Source: Progressive Grocer – May 2009
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April 19, 2023 Page 9U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Some Big Players Going w/Smaller Formats
Source: Company websites, Reuters, Orange County Register
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April 19, 2023 Page 10U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Neighborhood Market by Walmart - Still in Expansion Plans
Store Count 148
Avg. $ per Store $30 Million
Avg. Store Size 42,000
Planned Growth Approx. 10 per year
Page 10
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April 19, 2023 Page 11U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends Page 11
Focus on Freshness & Prepared Meals
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April 19, 2023 Page 12U.S. Retailing & Consumer TrendsTopic of Presentation Page 12
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April 19, 2023 Page 13U.S. Retailing & Consumer TrendsTopic of Presentation Page 13
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April 19, 2023 Page 14U.S. Retailing & Consumer TrendsTopic of Presentation Page 14
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April 19, 2023 Page 15U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Walmart Plans Growth in 15 Opportunity Markets
Eduardo Castro-Wright, president and chief executive officer of the U.S. division Wal-Mart Stores:
“We call them opportunity markets because they are markets where we have a 3.9% share as opposed to our average of 8.9%,” he explained. “Those 15 markets represent 34% of total U.S. retail sales …nearly the size of the entire retail market in China and larger than Russia and India [markets] combined.”
Some of the chain's ability to grow in those markets will come from the smaller “high efficiency” retail formats Wal-Mart is developing, he pointed out, “that would deliver much high sales per square foot and return on invested capital.”
Source: Supermarket News
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April 19, 2023 Page 16U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Aggressively Promoting “Unbeatable Prices” Billboard Located 2 Blocks From Target HQ???
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April 19, 2023 Page 17U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Aggressively Promoting “Unbeatable Prices” Billboard Located 2 Blocks From Target HQ???
While we question the authenticity of this photo, Walmart continues to be very focused on value & low prices. In a 7/1/09 full page ad in the Cincinnati Enquirer, Walmart made
the following claims:
“No one beats our Unbeatable prices.”
“We will match any local competitor’s ads.”
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April 19, 2023 Page 18U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Investing in New Formats
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April 19, 2023 Page 19U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Great Example of a Retailer Marketing Value w/Frequent Shopper Cards
Source: Winn-Dixie website
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April 19, 2023 Page 20U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
“It’s So Easy! With the 1-2-3 REWARDS® MasterCard®, you’ll earn: 1 point per $1 spent anywhere MasterCard is accepted 2 points per $1 spent in our stores (excluding fuel centers) 3 points per $1 spent on the Kroger family of quality brands
Every 1,000 points = $5 in free groceries!
Plus, save up to 15¢ per gallon* with a bonus fuel discount at participating stores**!
Rewarding — Free groceries for every 1,000 points! Easy — Automatic reward certificates sent every three months for earned rewards Smart — No annual fee Safe — Zero fraud liability Accepted — Worldwide MasterCard acceptance for extra purchasing power when you need it”
Kroger Providing Shopper Incentives to Earn Free Groceries & Gas Discounts
Source: Kroger website
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April 19, 2023 Page 21U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Coupons Back in Vogue
2.6 Billion
4.6 Billion
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008 -7% -1% -3% +10%
2009 +17% +33% ? ?
Source: Inmar CMS Promotions Services; excludes retailer coupons
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April 19, 2023 Page 22U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Increased Coupon Activity
% Change in RedemptionOverall Food Non-Food
Q4 08 +10% +21% -3%
Q1 09 +17% +22% +9%
Q2 09 +33% +27% +46%
% Change in DistributionOverall Food Non-Food
Q4 08 +8% +16% +3%
Q1 09 +16% +25% +9%
Q2 09 +20% +31% +12%
Source: Inmar CMS Promotions Services; excludes retailer coupons
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April 19, 2023 Page 23U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
E-mailed Coupon Offers
Source: Company websites
“access and save exclusive coupons from your phone or PC directly to your savings card!”
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April 19, 2023 Page 24U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Digital Coupon Offers From Safeway
Source: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 25U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Cooking Videos Linked to Shopping Lists & Feature Activity
Tips & Recipes to Save MoneySource: Company websites
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April 19, 2023 Page 26U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Niche Grocery Store Count Growth From Natural/Gourmet & Deep Discounters
1,187
957
309
269
943
578
164
130
Save-A-Lot
Aldi
Trader Joe's
Whole Foods
2001
2008
U.S. Store counts
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Aldi looking to add 75 stores in 2009; 2008 sales grew 21%
Source: The Wall Street Journal
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April 19, 2023 Page 27U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Aldi Delivers Extreme Value For The Home
Interesting tag line in
these economic
times
Rolling out new Fit & Active Private Label brand featuring “Fit Facts” on product labels
Source: Supermarket News
Rolling out new Fit & Active Private Label brand featuring “Fit Facts” on product labels
Source: Supermarket News
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April 19, 2023 Page 28U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Save-A-Lot providing meal solutions for less than the price of a gallon of gas!
20 meal plans under $4.00 for a family of four
Source: Save-A-Lot website
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April 19, 2023 Page 29U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Save-A-Lot providing meal solutions for less than the price of a gallon of gas!
20 30 meal plans under $4.00 $5.00 for a family of four
Source: Save-A-Lot website
In These Tough Times, Flexibility is Key
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April 19, 2023 Page 30U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Meal Deals are Everywhere – Next Generation of Recipe Marketing
Source: Company websites
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April 19, 2023 Page 31U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Source: Company website
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Fresh From Our Kitchen to Your Oven –Oven-Ready Entrees, Side Dishes & Desserts
Source: Company website and Progressive Grocer magazine
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April 19, 2023 Page 33U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Jewel-Osco Driving Value in Their Perimeter & Throughout the Store
Source: Jewel-Osco flyer
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April 19, 2023 Page 34U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Manufacturers: Pitching “Value” & Increasing Ad Spending
Search-engine optimization when consumers type “cereal” plus “deals” or “value”, Kellogg's Web site will pop up
The original dollar menu campaign. 10 cans soup for $10
Jointly promoting with Kraft: soup & grilled-cheese sandwiches
Local word-of-mouth campaign “So good for so little”
First time in more than a decade, advertising Banquet frozen dinners
15-second TV commercial for Kool-Aid showing how four pitchers of Kool-Aid cost same as a two-liter bottle of soda
Planning increase in ad spending & expanding number of brands it advertises, including Dinty Moore stews
Announced plans to increase consumer marketing 8% to 12% in its new fiscal year as part of a two-year growth plan
“Nestlé Helps Makes Family Night Easy.” Free ice cream & DVD rental w/$15 purchase of select Nestlé brands
Multimillion dollar campaign
Using online & targeting individuals to a narrower focus of consumers
Source: Company Websites & Ads
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April 19, 2023 Page 35U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Manufacturers: Positioning, Cause Marketing & Special Offers
“Best night cream, best eye treatment, hydrates better than even the $350 cream! Now save $5”
Source: Company Websites & Ads
“The Beauty Secret is Out
70% of salon-brand users agree—their brand didn’t beat Pantene”
“working to make this world a cleaner, healthier, better place…today, for the next generation and beyond.”
Web site with consumer tips & on-line coupon & other promotional offers
Oral & dental care information along with access to special offers w/capture of contact information for CRM initiatives
“support program offers advice and counseling for smokers trying to quit using GSK's nicotine replacement therapy products”
“ARM & HAMMER® works with adoption shelters to provide valuable information and discounts at the point of adoption”
“In a world of unachievable, airbrushed images, Dove is redefining beauty with the worldwide Campaign for Real Beauty”
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April 19, 2023 Page 36U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
6,456
4,918
598
399
179
4,298
3,575
3,602
493
278
128
CVS
Walgreens
Rite Aid
Sam's
Costco
BJ's20012008
Rapid Store Growth From Leading Drug Chains; Warehouse Stores Growing too
Decreasing openings from 495, 425 & 365 over the
next three fiscal years
U.S. Store counts
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
Opening 6 to 8 stores in 2009Opening 6 to 8 stores in 2009
6,527
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April 19, 2023 Page 37U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
The Warehouse Club Treasure Hunt
Page 37
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April 19, 2023 Page 38U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Significant Online Business From Club Retailers
“Savings of up to 30%* off supermarket prices”
Source: Company websites
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April 19, 2023 Page 39U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Sam’s Club Focus on Small Business & Trial Programs to Build Membership
Source: Company websiteSource: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 40U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends Page 40
Coupon Savings, Trial Programs, Sampling & Club Cards All Part of the Experience
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April 19, 2023 Page 41U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Kraft & Sam’s Club Collaborate on “two week dinner plan”
Source: www.SamsClub.com
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April 19, 2023 Page 42U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Merchandising Wide Variety of Categories
Source: Company websites
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April 19, 2023 Page 43U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Walgreens Helping Shoppers in Many Ways
Source: Company website & newsletter
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April 19, 2023 Page 44U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Walgreens Café W – Back to The Future
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April 19, 2023 Page 45U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Walgreens Café W – Back to The Future
“Walgreens … will sell a limited selection of beer and wine at 70 percent of its 6,857 drugstores ...
Stores nationwide are being redesigned by department … in an effort to make them easier to shop …
…will introduce more private-label merchandise, ranging from paper towels to over-the-counter medications.”
Source: Associated Press
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April 19, 2023 Page 46U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Convenience/Gas - Current Industry Landscape
•Still huge and fragmented, but consolidation starting
•Single-store owners contracting
•Foodservice rising to replace lost cigarette revenue
• Industry counting on Foodservice to drive 2009 sales
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April 19, 2023 Page 47U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Top Ten Convenience Store Chains Dominated by Petroleum Companies & Franchise Operators
Store Count
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
7-Eleven
BP
Shell
Exxon Mobil
ChevronTexaco
Couche-Tard
Speedway SuperAmerica
CITGO
Sunoco
The Pantry
Company
Franchise
Source: Convenience Store News Hot top 100 – August 2008
62% of top 100 stores from top 10 – off 61 units as oil
companies divest or franchise retail operations
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April 19, 2023 Page 48U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
2nd Tier of Convenience Store Chains Dominated by Company-Owned Operators
Store Count
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Valero
ConocoPhillips
Casey's
Kroger
Amereda Hess
Wawa
Cumberland Farms
Racetrac
Susser Holdings
Delec Holdings
QuikTrip - Tulsa
Company
Franchise
Source: Convenience Store News Hot top 100 – August 2008
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April 19, 2023 Page 49U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
3rd Tier of Convenience Store Chains Dominated by Company-Owned Operators Too
Store Count
0 100 200 300 400 500
Kum & Go
Holiday
Military
CHS Inc/Cenex
Sheetz
WilcoHess LLC
Kwik Trip - La Crosse
Pilot
Getty
Stewart's
Company
Franchise
Source: Convenience Store News Hot top 100 – August 2008
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April 19, 2023 Page 50U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
2006
2007
2008
Chain Single StoreSource: Convenience Store News/Nielsen TDLinx®
144,875144,87561.8%61.8%
146,294146,294
62.0%62.0%
145,119145,11938.0%38.0%
62.0%62.0%
38.2%38.2%
38.0%38.0%
Chain Single Store
2008
2007
2006
Single-Store C-Store Operators Drive 1% Decline in Store Count, but Still the Majority
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April 19, 2023 Page 51U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Giant To Go – a Convenience Store or Small Grocery Store?
Source: Supermarket News and Convenience Store News
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April 19, 2023 Page 52U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Source: Public Domain (store interior), company website (small images), Gary M. Baranec/Associated Press (touch screen)
A Fun Place to Go for Food – Shoppers Use Touch Screens to Place Orders
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April 19, 2023 Page 53U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Source: Company website
WaWa Drives Strong Food Service Business with Touch Screen Order Process too
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April 19, 2023 Page 54U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Source: Company website
One of Five Convenient Store Divisions from Kroger
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April 19, 2023 Page 55U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
7-Eleven Offering Meal Deals Too
Source: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 56U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
BP Franchises – Food Service Focus in Channel Has Never Been Stronger
Source: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 57U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
6,610
3,507
652
280
4,244
5,162
3,942
1,654
307
129
3,219
Dollar General
Family Dollar
Dollar Tree
Fred's
Ninety-NineCents Only
Wal-MartCorporate*
20012008
*Includes Division 1, Supercenters, Neighborhood Markets & Sam’s Club
Rapid Store Expansion Within Dollar Channel
1,025 new Walmart Corp stores since 2001, but 8,291
new Dollar Stores from these 5 chains
U.S. Store counts
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
8,436
Source: Supermarket News
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April 19, 2023 Page 58U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
6,610
3,507
652
280
4,244
5,162
3,942
1,654
307
129
3,219
Dollar General
Family Dollar
Dollar Tree
Fred's
Ninety-NineCents Only
Wal-MartCorporate*
20012008
*Includes Division 1, Supercenters, Neighborhood Markets & Sam’s Club
Rapid Store Expansion Within Dollar Channel
1,025 new Walmart Corp stores since 2001, but 8,291
new Dollar Stores from these 5 chains
U.S. Store counts
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company
8,436
Planning to open 450 new stores; up from 207 this
past FY; remodeling or relocating 400 other stores
Source: Supermarket News
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April 19, 2023 Page 59U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Dollar Stores Increasing Branded Focus; Expanding Price Points & Promotions
Source: Company websites
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April 19, 2023 Page 60U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Strong Focus on Pets
Source: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 61U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Strong Focus on Pets, “Me-Too” Store Brands
Source: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 62U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Strong Focus on Pets, “Me-Too” Store Brands & Easy Meals
Source: Company website
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April 19, 2023 Page 63U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Shakeup of The Retail LandscapeAnnounced Store Closings• Rite-Aid – 117 (on top of 200 in prior
fiscal)• SuperValu – 50 • Sear’s Holding – 24• Bruno’s – 10• Penn Traffic – 8• Sweetbay – 7• Sam’s Club (Canada) – 6 • Bashas’ – 15• Balducci’s – 5• A&P SuperFresh – 5• Lane Bryant/Catherine's – 150• Sprint – 133 stores • FYE – 130• Office Depot – 112 stores• Zales – 105• Macy’s – 10
• Starbucks closing nearly 1,000 underperforming stores worldwide in less than 2 years
• Circuit City closing all 567 stores
• Linens ’n Things – closing all 571 stores & shifting to online model
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April 19, 2023 Page 64U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Shakeup of The Retail LandscapeAnnounced Store Closings• Rite-Aid – 117 (on top of 200 in prior
fiscal)• SuperValu – 50 • Sear’s Holding – 24• Bruno’s – 10• Penn Traffic – 8• Sweetbay – 7• Sam’s Club (Canada) – 6 • Bashas’ – 15• Balducci’s – 5• A&P SuperFresh – 5• Lane Bryant/Catherine's – 150• Sprint – 133 stores • FYE – 130• Office Depot – 112 stores• Zales – 105• Macy’s – 10
• Starbucks closing nearly 1,000 underperforming stores worldwide in less than 2 years
• Circuit City closing all 567 stores
• Linens ’n Things – closing all 571 stores & shifting to online model
NEW YORK (Reuters) – General Growth Properties Inc, the second largest U.S. mall owner, filed for bankruptcy protection on Thursday in one of the biggest real estate failures in U.S. history.
Ending months of speculation, the Chicago-based mall owner, which listed total assets of $29.56 billion and total debts of $27.29 billion, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors along with 158 of its more than 200 U.S. malls, while it seeks to restructure some of its debt.
04/16/2009
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April 19, 2023 Page 65U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Rate of Restaurant Openings Decreasing & Eclipsed by Closings
Dining Location Openings & Closings - Total U.S.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
New Closed
Source: Trade Dimensions® & TDLinx®, services of The Nielsen Company; thru April 2009
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April 19, 2023 Page 66U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Dining: That was then...Same store sales trends (Year Ago % Change)
FlemingsOn the Border
Mac GrillBonefish
Ruby TuesdayOutback
O'CharleysPF ChangsMimis Café
Ruth ChrisApplebees
Bahama BreezeRed Lobster
MaggianosChilisCarrabas
Cheesecake FacLandrys
Cap GrilleJ Alexanders
Grand LuxTexas Roadhouse
Olive GardenBenihanaCPKRed Robin
Kona GrillBJ's
Buff Wild WingsMortons Grill Concepts
McCorm. & Schmicks
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10Source: Company Reports -NRN (Dec 22, 2008)
20072007
20 of 32 operators reported same
store gains; Overall avg: +1%
20 of 32 operators reported same
store gains; Overall avg: +1%
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April 19, 2023 Page 67U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Dining: This is now!Same store sales trends (Latest quarter % change)
MortonsFlemings
Ruth ChrisCap Grille
BonefishMcCorm. & Schmicks
BenihanaMac Grill
MaggianosOutback
Kona GrillLandrys
Bahama BreezeRed Robin
CarrabasMimis CaféPF Changs
Ruby TuesdayJ Alexanders
CPKChillis
On the BorderGrand LuxRed Lobster
O'CharleysCheesecake Fac
ApplebeesTexas Roadhouse
Olive Garden
Buff Wild Wings
BJ's
Grill Concepts
-25 -23 -21 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7Source: Company Reports - NRN (May 11, 2009)
20082008
30 of 32 operators reported same store losses Overall avg: -8.2%
30 of 32 operators reported same store losses Overall avg: -8.2%
Guest Check
Customer Traffic
Guest Check
Customer Traffic
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April 19, 2023 Page 68U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Store Closings – How Will They Impact Your Business?
Opportunity for retailers to grab cheap property, expand store count and enhance market share
Threat to retailers relying on traffic draw from closed site(s) – be prepared to relocate quickly
Threat to manufacturer sales – be prepared to shift sales efforts to winning retailers
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April 19, 2023 Page 69U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Shopping Behavior Trends
• Retailers can grow their sales by:– Increasing their shopper base– Driving shopping frequency– Building baskets
• Leveraging categories & brands that impact one or more of these components
• Driving “need state” trip opportunities– Health & wellness– Meal occasions– Large versus small trips– Time-starved consumers
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April 19, 2023 Page 70U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
99
79
81
64
68
50
40
100
95
86
59
51
50
45
Grocery
Mass Merch
Drug
Dollar
Supercenters*
Warehouse
Conv/Gas20012008
Value Winning As Evidenced by Consumer Acceptance
Benefits from new store openings
% Household Penetration
**
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips** Note: Conv/Gas channel behaviors understated because of the high level of gasoline only buys & purchases of immediate consumables *Includes Kmart, Target & Walmart
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April 19, 2023 Page 71U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
59
26
14
14
14
13
11
72
20
24
15
15
11
10
Grocery
Supercenters*
Mass Merch
Drug
Conv/Gas
Dollar
Warehouse20012008
Grocery & Mass trips continue to drop
Value Channels Grabbing Trips
Trips Per household
**
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips** Note: Conv/Gas channel behaviors understated because of the high level of gasoline only buys & purchases of immediate consumables *Includes Kmart, Target & Walmart
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 72U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Value Retailing Driving Price Compression
$100
$65
$49
$41
$24
$19
$14
$82
$51
$39
$32
$19
$10
$11
Warehouse
Supercenters*
Mass Merch
Grocery
Drug
Conv/Gas
Dollar
20012008
Average $ Basket Ring
**
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips** Note: Conv/Gas channel behaviors understated because of the high level of gasoline only buys & purchases of immediate consumables *Includes Kmart, Target & Walmart
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 73U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Variety Winning as Evidenced by the Size of Alternative Channel Shopper Bases
74
70
47
45
36
32
26
22
20
77
78
48
48
38
30
31
23
31
Hardware & Home Improvement
Department
Electronics
Office Supply
Bookstores
Pet
Auto
Liquor
Toy Stores
2001Mid-2008
Significant drop in shopper bases for Department & Toy Stores; declines in all category killers
except Pet
% Household Penetration
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 74U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Low Shopping Frequency in Other Retail Channels & Some Reductions
7
6
7
5
5
3
3
2
2
7
7
7
5
5
3
3
3
3
Hardware & Home Improvement
Department
Liquor
Bookstores
Pet
Electronics
Office Supply
Auto
Toy Stores
20012008
Trips per Household
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 75U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Shopping Baskets Vary, but Large Baskets in Many Alternative Retailers
$112
$86
$59
$51
$51
$37
$34
$33
$25
$93
$73
$46
$42
$42
$27
$25
$25
$17
Electronics
Department
Toy Stores
Office Supply
Hardware & Home Improvement
Pet
Auto
Liquor
Bookstores
2001
2008
Average Basket Ring
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 76U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
Dollar
Club
Supercenter
Grocery
Drug
Mass Merch
Conv/Gas
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Value Retailers Outperforming Grocery, Drug, Mass & C-Store Trips – Grocery Trips Flat During Recession
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 77U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
Online
Dollar
Club
Supercenter
Grocery
Drug
Mass Merch
Online Retailing Driving Strongest Trip Growth
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 78U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
Toy
HHI
Apparel
Office Supply
Department
Electronics
Liquor Stores
Discretionary Retail Channel Trips Still Soft
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 79U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in All Channel Shopping Trips
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
Continued Trip Compression From Lower Income, While More Affluent Showing Trip Growth in 2009
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 80U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Grocery Channel Shopping Trips
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
More Affluent Shopping Grocery More Often & Account For Largest Share of Channel Sales
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
41%
36%
23%
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 81U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Grocery Channel Shopping Trips
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
More Affluent Shopping Grocery More Often & Account For Largest Share of Channel Sales
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
41%
36%
23%
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
50% of adults w/ incomes of $70k plus eating out less to
save expenses – versus 46% for total adults
Source: 4/09 Nielsen Homescan Survey
The heck with meal deals, how about recipe ideas, in-store demos
and cooking classes in your stores serving
affluent?
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 82U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Grocery Channel % Items on Deal
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
All Incomes Increasingly Looking for Grocery Deals
% Items on Deal*
32%31%29%
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 83U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Supercenter Channel Shopping Trips
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
More Affluent Driving Stronger Supercenter Trip Growth, but Only Drive 1/3rd of Sales
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
32%
40%
28%
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 84U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Affluent Drive > Sales & > Trip Growth; Middle & Low Income Shopping Club More Frequently in ‘09
% Change in Warehouse Club Channel Shopping Trips
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
9/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
57%
31%
12%
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 85U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Middle Income & More Affluent Finding Value in Dollar Stores, but Low Income Drive 46% of Sales
% Change in Dollar Store Channel Shopping Trips
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
19%
35%
46%
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 86U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Drug Store Channel Shopping Trips
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
Middle & Low Income Making Fewer Trips to Drugstores; More Positive Trip Growth by Affluent
36%
37%
27%
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 87U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Mass Merchandisers* Channel Shopping Trips
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
Tough Year for Regular Mass Formats
30%
37%
23%
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
* Latest Period; excludes Supercenter formats
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 88U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
% Change in Convenience/Gas Channel Shopping Trips
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07/1
2/08
08/0
9/08
09/0
6/08
10/0
4/08
11/0
1/08
11/2
9/08
12/2
7/08
01/2
4/09
02/2
1/09
03/2
1/09
04/1
8/09
05/1
6/09
06/1
3/09
4-week period ending
$70K +
$30 to $69.9K
< $29K
Middle & Low Income Making Fewer Trips to Convenience/Gas
26%
36%
38%
Share of Basket Ring Dollars*
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 89U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends Page 89
•Retail Channel
Demographics
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 90U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Club Sales Skew to Affluent, C-Store & Dollar Sales Overdeveloped Among Lower Income
Distribution of Dollars
125
11 12 16 1524 27
10
6
10 1113 13
1618
10
7
11 1011 12
1313
10
8
10 9
10 11
1110
17
16
17 17
16 18
1413
18
22
18 1816
1613
102336
23 23 18 15 10 8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Outlets Club Mass Grocery Drug Supers C-Store Dollar
<$20,000 $20,000-29,999 $30,000-39,999 $40,000-49,999
$50,000-69,999 $70,000-99,999 $100,000+
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; UPC-coded purchases; 52-week period ending 12/27/2008
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 91U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Supers Skew Toward Caucasian; C-Store & Dollar African American; Club & Mass Hispanics
Distribution of Dollars
7882 80 76 75 75 73 70
2218
2024
25 25 27 30
1110
9 139 11
16 20
9 7 8 812 11
10 812 9 11 11 16 15 11 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Outlets Supers Grocery Drug Club Mass C-Store Dollar
CAUCASIAN NON-CAUCASIAN AFRICAN AMER. ASIAN OTHER RACE HISPANIC
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; UPC-coded purchases; 52-week period ending 12/27/2008
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 92U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Smaller Formats Attract Smaller Households
Distribution of Dollars
17 15 11 14 17 20 23 24
3429 35 32
33 3237 38
3539 37 38
36 3329 29
14 17 17 16 14 15 11 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Outlets Mass Club Supers Grocery Dollar C-Store Drug
1 MEM 2 MEM 3-4 MEM 5+ MEM
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; UPC-coded purchases; 52-week period ending 12/27/2008
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 93U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Dollar & Drug Skew to Older; C-Stores Attract Male-Only Households
Distribution of Dollars
17 21 2216 17 13 11 12
1720 19
18 1717
15 13
2323 22
23 2323
2421
1514 15
17 14 1916
17
1211 11
12 13 15
10 20
15 11 11 15 16 1323
17
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Outlets Mass Supers Club Grocery Dollar C-Store Drug
UNDER 35 35-44 45-5455-64 65+ NO FEMALE HEADColumn 8 Column 9 Column 10Column 11 Column 13 Column 14Column 15 Column 16Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; UPC-coded purchases; 52-week period ending 12/27/2008
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 94U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Big Box Retailers Attract Sales From Households With Kids
Distribution of Dollars
6071 67
59 59 58 53 52
15
1010
15 13 1718 20
2215
1822 23 22
27 27
19 14 17 19 21 20 22 21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Outlets Drug C-Store Grocery Dollar Club Supers Mass
NONE < 18 ANY < 6 ANY 6-12 ANY 13-17
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; UPC-coded purchases; 52-week period ending 12/27/2008
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 95U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
54
46
37
63
37
63
34
66
30
70
26
74
25
75
Mal
es
Femal
es Dollar
Mass
Supers
Drug
Grocery
WHC
Conv/Gas
55
45
39
61
39
61
35
65
31
69
28
72
27
73
Mal
es
Femal
es Dollar
Mass
Supers
Drug
Grocery
WHC
Conv/Gas
Share of Retail Channel Shopping Trips
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; 52-weeks ending 12/25/04 versus 52-weeks ending 05/30/09
2004 2009
Except for Convenience/Gas, Females Dominate Channel Trips – Males Increase Share in All Channels
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 96U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
$84.96
$60.16
$44.37
$37.44
$21.79
$13.86
$12.19
$80.48
$45.36
$34.55
$27.49
$18.15
$10.35
$8.93
Club
Super
cent
erM
assG
roce
ry
DrugCon
v/Gas
Dollar
Males
Females
$99.49
$69.12
$49.17
$43.50
$24.96
$20.34
$13.99
$93.26
$52.25
$41.08
$41.67
$21.04
$16.00
$10.61
Club
Super
cent
erM
assG
roce
ry
DrugCon
v/Gas
Dollar
Males
Females
Average Dollar Basket Size
Source: Homescan, a service of The Nielsen Company; 52-weeks ending 12/25/04 versus 52-weeks ending 05/30/09
2004 2009
Higher Basket Values for Female Shoppers – Likely Those Making the Larger Planned Trips
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 97U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends Page 97
•Retailing Trends
Summary
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 98U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
“Great Recession” Driving Fundamental Shifts in Consumer Shopping
Value retailers winning and will likely maintain preferred status for many as economy improves
Recovery for discretionary retailers will lag those in CPG-space
Accelerated industry innovation & collaboration
New formats
Store expansion
Meal deals
Value messaging and promotions
On-line engagements
New and expanded offerings
Diverse retail shopper bases enables opportunities to differentiate via assortment, pricing, promotion, & communication
Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2009 The Nielsen Company
April 19, 2023 Page 100U.S. Retailing & Consumer Trends
Contributing Authors
• Doug Anderson
• Patrick Barnard
• Cindy Bonini
• Wendy Bordewisch
• Danny Brager
• Tom Donato
• Mark Elola
• Michelle Engholm
• Pam Leibfried
• Steve Knight
• Bill Petschow
• Tom Pirovano
• Mitchell Ross
• James Russo
• Mary Ellen Ryan
• Scott Smith
• Kimberly Vanderberry