Post on 01-Jan-2016
description
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COSMO-LEPS verification
Chiara Marsigli Francesco
Boccanera Andrea Montani Tiziana
Paccagnella
super-ensemble (ECMWF 5RM)
BSS outliers
number of RMs BSS outliers
new suite
COSMO observations
obs mask 1.5 x 1.5
adjacent boxes
COSMO-LEPS vs 5RM-EPS vs 51M-EPS
ROC area average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
51-MEMBER EPS
COSMO-LEPS vs 5RM-EPS vs 51M-EPS
ROC area maxima on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
51-MEMBER EPS
tp > 50mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM
ROC average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes tp > 20mm/24h
fc. range +66 fc. range +90
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM
COST-LOSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
envelope
fc. range +66
tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24henvelope
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM
COST-LOSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
envelope
fc. range +90
tp > 20mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM
detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes false alarm rate
yes no
yes a b
no c d
observed
forecast
ba
bFAR
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM
detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes bias score
yes no
yes a b
no c d
observed
forecast
ca
baBS
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM
detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes threat score
yes no
yes a b
no c d
observed
forecast
cba
aTS
COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM OUTLIERS average on 1.5 x 1.5
boxes
italian observations
COSMO-LEPS - parallel suite
ROC average on 0.5 x 0.5 boxes tp > 20mm/24hfc. range +90
Tiedtke
Kain-Fritsch
both (10-m)
COSMO-LEPS - parallel suite
ROC maxima on 0.5 x 0.5 boxes tp > 50mm/24hfc. range +90
Tiedtke
Kain-Fritsch
both (10-m)
FINE
obs mask 0.5 x 0.5
ECMWF 5RM newsuiteBSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
fc. range +90
tp > 1mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
ECMWF 5RM newsuiteBSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
fc. range +114
tp > 1mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
ECMWF 5RM newsuiteBSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
fc. range +114
tp > 20mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS - areas ROC average on boxes
tp > 1mm/24h
fc. range +90
tp > 10mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS - areas ROC average on boxes
tp > 20mm/24h
fc. range +90
deterministic scores
0FAR 1 HSSBS,TS, :forecast Perfect
d)(bb)(ad)(cc)(a
bc)2(adHSS
ca
baBS
ba
bFAR
cba
aTS
yes no
yes a b
no c d
observed
forecast
ca
aPOD
COSMO-LEPS vs EPSrm - ndj0203 1.5 x 1.5 ave & max