Critical Energy Infrastructure after the Arab Spring

NATO Advanced Studies Antalya October 2015

Dr Cyril Widdershoven

Middle East Specialist and Security Advisor

BD Manager MENA Oil & Gas

Cwiddershoven@hotmail.com/ Mob: +31-6-53819265

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About us Our capabilities Our experience

TNO

TNO is a Dutch company with over 80 years experience in technology development and technical consultancy

TNO Facts• Independent

• Technology development, consulting and contract R&D

• Approximately 4000 employees

• Revenue: ⅔ from industry, ⅓ from Dutch government

Markets• Energy, Defence Safety & Security, Transport & Mobility, Information Society, Medical and Built Environment

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Partners

Defence: main R&D contractor Dutch navy

Space: design of satellites, telescopes, mars pathfinder

High-tech Industries: main R&D contractor ASML lithography

Automotive: leading car crash testing Europe

Oil & Gas: Partner of leading oil & gas companies

Setting The Scene: 2010-2015

• Overview MENA region

• Critical Infrastructure MENA

• Arab Spring effects 2010-2013

• Syria, Egypt, Libya, Algeria

• Spreading of extremism and effects of terrorism

• Critical Energy Infrastructure Incidents and Effects

• Possible out of the box solutions

World Oil Producers 2014-2015

How I Like MENA Oil & Gas

European Energy Supply/Import Lines

European Power Imports?

Algeria-EU pipelines

Turkey Pipelines

Potential Supply EU

Saudi Oil Fields

Saudi Pipelines

REALITY HITS IN?

New Arc of Instability

Increased Terrorist Attacks

ISIS MENA

ISIS Operations & Regional Refineries

Regional Critical Incidents 2014

MENA Critical Incidents 2014

Algeria Critical Incidents 2014

Algeria

Algeria Critical Incidents over Time

Algeria Weapons Type

Egypt

Egypt Sinai Situation

Egypt Critical Incidents 2014

Egypt Weapons Type

Egypt Critical Incidents over Time

Iraq Sectarian Divisions

Iraq Kurdish Issue

Kurdish Issues Iraq

Iraq Energy Infrastructure

Iraq Critical Incidents 2014

Iraq Critical Incidents over Time

Libya

Libyan Militia Map

Libya Critical Incidents 2014

Libya Weapons Type 2014

Libya Critical Incidents over Time

Saudi Critical Incidents 2014

Syria Critical Incidents 2014

Tunisia Critical Incidents 2014

Turkey Critical Incidents 2014

Turkey Critical Incidents Over Time

Turkey Incidents Weapon Type

MEA-Risk Critical Incidents Monitoring

Maghreb Incidents Monitoring

Maghreb Critical Incidents Aug 10 – Sept 14 2015

Critical Incidents North Africa (MEA-

Risk.com) July 24 – Sept 30 2015

How to Counter Threats?

Conventional Approack to

Infrastructure Protection As of Today

First Two Layers

First Four Layers

Offshore Security Approach

Integration of All?

Taking Security Step Further:

ISIS = Darth Vader?

Social Media Tracking as New Security

Layer?

Open Source As Data Mining Security

Aspect

Snaptrends to Target Terrorists or

Security Threats?

Implementation of Social Media for

Security: Everyone Online = Target!

Dr Cyril Widdershoven

Mob: 0031-6-53819265

Email: cwiddershoven@hotmail.com