Crop Market Outlook

transcript

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Market Outlook

Ag ExpoMason City, Iowa

Nov. 28, 2012

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

chart@iastate.edu515-294-9911

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 96.9

Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 122.3

Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 10,725

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 988

Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 28 29 100

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,515 11,814

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,125 4,795 4,547 4,150

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,500

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,426 1,367

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,980 1,834 1,543 1,150

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,167

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 988 647

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 7.60

Source: USDA-WAOB

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2

Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.3

Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 2,971

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 215 169

Imports (mil. bu.) 13 15 14 16 20

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,160

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,560

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 110 130 91 115

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,021

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 140

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.90

Source: USDA-WAOB

Crop Conditions

Source: USDA-NASS

20253035404550556065707580

Corn Soybeans

Prices

Projected Corn Yields

Objective Corn Yield Data

Source: USDA-NASS

Projected Soybean Yields

Objective Soybean Yield Data

Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

World Soybean Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

World Weather

Source: USDC and USDA

Hog Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Cattle Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

U.S. Meat Production & Prices

Source: USDA-WAOB

Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1

2010 2011 2012

Soy Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1

2010 2011 2012

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

Ethanol Stocks

Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption

Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

7.6 bil. gal.

7.4 bil. gal.

Current Corn Futures

Source: CME Group, 11/27/2012

6.005.60

Current Soybean Futures

Source: CME Group, 11/27/2012

12.5012.12

Corn Soybeans

Early Prices for 2013 Crops

Total Acreage Shift

Source: USDA-NASS

Acreage Shift by Crop

Source: USDA-NASS

Acreage change from 2011Units: 1,000 acres

Acreage Shift by State

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: Planted in 2012Bottom: Change from 2011Units: 1,000 acres

Thoughts for 2012 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns

Soil moisture issuesBiofuel and export strengthWorldwide response to drought-induced pricing

2012/13

Futures

(11/27/12)

2013/14

Futures

(11/27/12)

Corn $7.60 $7.02 $6.00

Soybeans $14.90 $13.72 $12.50

Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

Crop Market Outlook

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