Post on 23-Apr-2018
transcript
CURRENT SITUATION IN TURKISH STEEL INDUSTRY & OUTLOOK
82nd OECD Steel Committee Meeting
Dr. Veysel Yayan Secretary General
Turkish Steel Producers Association
23-24 March 2017 Paris
2
Development of Turkish Economy, Construction, Manufacturing and Steel Industries (%)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP* 8,4 6,9 4,7 0,7 -4,7 9 8,8 2,2 4,0 2,9 4,0 2,5
Construction* 21,5 19,4 5,7 -8,1 -16,3 17,1 11,5 0,6 7,2 2,2 1,8 4,0
Manufacturing 8,2 8,4 5,6 -0,1 -7 13,3 10 1,9 3,8 3,7 3,7 1,9
Steel Industry 2,4 11,8 9,9 4,1 -5,6 15,2 17 5,2 -3,4 -1,8 -7,4 5,2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
GDP Construction Manufacturing Steel Industry
* 2016 estimated
3
Steel Using Industries - Construction
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
* estimated
4
Steel Using Industries - Manufacturing
* estimated
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
5
Crude Steel Production of Turkey (Mt) & yoy Growth (%)
26
.8
25
.3
29
.1 3
4.1
35
.9
34
.7
34
.0
31
.5
33
.2
4.1
-5.6
15.2
17.0
5.2
-3.4
-1.8
-7.4
5.2
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production Change (%)
6
Turkey’s Crude Steel Production Capacity, Production (mt) & Capacity Utilisation (%)
83.4 84.6 80.5
78.6
66.1 68.2
72.4 73.2 70.4
67.8
62.5 64.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capacity Production CU %
7
Turkey’s Finished Steel Production (Mt)
19.6
23.4
26.1 26.7 25.1
26.3
31.9
34.3 36.4 36.1 36.9 36.9
19.2
11.6
2.4
-5.8
4.6
21.5
7.3 6.2
-0.9
2.3
-0.2
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production Change %
8
Turkey’s Finished Steel Consumption (Mt)
18.4
21.2
23.8 21.5
18.0
23.6
26.9 28.5
31.3 30.8
34.4 34.1
15.1
12.0
-9.7
-15.9
30.8
14.2
5.6
10.0
-1.8
11.7
-0.8
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Consumption Change %
9
Turkey’s Total Steel Trade (million tons)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Import
Export
10
Turkey’s Net Total Steel Export (milion tons)
8.4
-2.3
-0.6
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
11
Turkey’s Total Steel Export/Import Ratio, %
146.6
135.6
108.0
151.0
140.5
152.5
87.9
99.1
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
12
Turkey’s Steel Consumption & Import (‘000 tons), Share of Import (%)
26.9 28.5
31.3 30.8
34.4 34.1
10.7 11.9
14.9 13.8
19.1 17.5
39.6 41.6
47.5 44.9
55.5
51.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ConsumptionImportImport Share %
13
Mega Projects up to 2023
Urban Transformation
80 Billion US$
Mega Projects
150 Billion US$
Energy
115 Bilion US$
Highways
16 Billion US$
Aviation
17 Billion US$
Railways
19 Bilion US$
Maritime Sector
19 Billion US$
~120 Billion US$ until 2020
~280 Billion
US$ until 2023
14
Conclusion
• Turkish steel industry entered growth trend in 2016 after continued drop in the
previous 3 years.
• The global efforts on decreasing market distorting practices, leaving support
and incentives for inefficient capacities and eliminating surplus capacity
contributed to increasing steel prices globally to a level which can be more
comparable with production costs. All these efforts to stabilize the markets,
allowed also Turkish steel industry to enter growth tendency again.
• Despite all those efforts to establish balance in the world steel industry, global
capacity surplus and market distorting practices in the world steel markets are
still an important concern for the Turkish steel industry.
• In addition to the improvement in those global factors, it is expected that the
mega projects developed by the Turkish government will increase domestic
steel demand and thus support Turkey’s steel production growth.