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Presentation Title 30ptDate, defused light 20ptPresenter’s Full Name, defused light 16ptPosition, defused light 16pt
Daniel L. Sandars Natural Resources Management Centre,
School of Applied Science, Cranfield University
Contribution to:ESI2009 "OR in Agriculture and Forest Management “
25th July- 8th August 2009, Lleida, Spain.
The financially rational provision of over-winter stubbles on UK arable farms to promote farmland birds
RELU: Biodiversity options for English lowland arable farming
Soils and Weather
Workable hours
Profitability (or loss)
Crop and livestock outputs
Environmental Impacts
Possible crops, yields, maturity
dates, sowing dates
Silsoe Whole Farm Model
Linear programme, important features timeliness penalties,
rotational penalties, workability per task,
uncertainty
Machines and
people
Constraints and
penalties
Heavy clay, 800 mm annual rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
7 Ja
n
7 Feb
7 M
ar
7 Apr
7 M
ay
7 Ju
n7
Jul
7 Aug
7 Sep
7 Oct
7 Nov
7 Dec
Ho
urs
Sandy loam, 500 mm annual rainfall
-
50
100
150
200
250
7 Ja
n
7 Feb
7 M
ar
7 Apr
7 M
ay
7 Ju
n7
Jul
7 Aug
7 Sep
7 Oct
7 Nov
7 Dec
Ho
urs
Workable hours v. tractor hours
Period, fortnights Period, fortnights
Voluntary conservation behaviour
• How would free conservation education influence farmer behaviour?
• What types of policy intervention do farmers find unacceptable?
Multi-criteria methods
Discrete choice problems Continuous choice problems
Methods Multi-criteria Decision Making, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Outranking methods, etc
Goal programming, Compromise programming, Multiple Objective programming
Features Elicits a rich picture of attributes. Formal problem structuring methods. Interactive with a few motivated decision makers
Simple view of attributes. Few examples of formal problem structuring methods. Examples of non-interactive uses
Role Mostly prescriptive solutions, but have seen AHP claim to predict the outcome of the US presidential election
Most examples prescriptive
Weight distributionattributes (metrics)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0 5 10 15 20
Attribute
No
rma
lise
d w
eig
ht
centroidobserved
Overwintered crop residue area, ha/ 250 ha of land in arable farming systems
Arable NUTS4
STUBBLE_AR / none
Not Modelled
0 - 4
4 - 8
8 - 12
12 - 16
16 - 20
20 - 24
24 - 28
28 - 32
32 - 36
Pareto optimal trade-offs between profit and overwintered stubble area showing the effect of location
0
50
100
150
200
250
£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000 £60,000 £70,000 £80,000 £90,000
Net farm profit, £/ 250 ha
Are
a o
f cr
op
res
idu
es s
urv
ivin
g
bey
on
g m
id F
eb.,
ha/
250
ha
Heavy clay, 670 mm annual rainfall Sand, 540 mm annual rainfall
Extra cost, £/ 250 ha to ensureat least 25 ha of overwintered crop residues
Arable NUTS4
EXTRA_COST
-1
0 - 5
6 - 15
16 - 30
31 - 90
Promoting spring crops v. stubbles via selective subsidy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 50 100 150 200 250
Spring crops, ha/ 250 ha farm
Stu
bb
les
ove
rwin
teri
ng
to
mid
Feb
.,
ha
/250
ha
In general greater prosperity leads to increased timeliness and less overwintered stubbles
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Prices80%
Prices90%
Prices100%
Prices110%
Prices120%
Prices130%
ha
ove
rwin
tere
d s
tub
ble
/ 250
ha
typ
ical
ara
ble
far
m
£47k
£48k
£48k
£49k
£49k
£50k
£50k
£51k
Stubble area where annualrainfall -700 mm and mediumsoil type -cropping frozen
Annual fixed cost whereannual rainfall -700 mm andmedium soil type -croppingfrozen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 50 100 150 200 250
Spring crop area ha/250 ha
Stu
bb
le a
rea
ha/
250h
a
Heavy clay, 670 mm annual rainfall Sandy clay loam, 595 mm annual rainfallSand, 540 mm annual rainfall
Stubble area given mandatory amounts of spring crops, showing that given enough flexibility overwintered stubbles will be avoided
Acknowledgements
The research was funded as part of the UK Research Councils' Rural Economy and Land Use Programme (RELU) (Project: RES-227-25-0025-A). RELU is collaboration between the Economic and Social Research Council, the Natural Environment Research Council and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, with additional funding from Defra and the Scottish Government.