Post on 23-Apr-2018
transcript
Electricity market
drivers
March 2008
Daniel Assandri
Head of Power Systems
ABB (China) Ltd
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Electricity
markets
Global T&D Market
Drivers
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Electricity
markets
The Americas
Aged infrastructure needs to be refurbished
Reliability concerns and U.S. Energy Bill will trigger T&D
investments
Europe
Need for interconnections and power grid upgrades
Replacement and refurbishment
Integration of renewable, such as wind farms in the North Sea
Asia
China driven by growing demand for electric power infrastructure
development, prospect of the world‟s most modern power grid
India growth on rural electrification plans and distribution systems
Middle East Africa
Windfall from oil prices main driver for power transmission and
distribution investment in Middle East
ABB’s view on markets and market drivers
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Electricity
markets PWC Study 2006, most important for utilities
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Electricity
markets
Source: IEA study 2006 , Dr. Fatih Birol
244 BUS$/year
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Electricity
markets
Europe
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Electricity
markets
Electricity
markets
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Electricity
marketsTransformation of energy system, Europe
Source: EPPSA - European Power Plant Suppliers‟ Association
+ 550 GW
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Electricity
marketsThe European transmission challenge
Key Drivers
Increase security of supply
Develop competition in market
Allow integration of renewables
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Electricity
markets Wind power in Europe
The 48,027 MW installed in the
EU by the end of 2006 will
produce electricity, equal to
around 3% of EU electricity
consumption.
Almost twice amount of energy
could be produced with the
same amount of installed power
if located at best wind sites
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Electricity
marketsABB supplies to off shore wind power
Nysted Denmark 2003 54 km 36 kV ACsubmarine cable
Horns Rev Denmark 2001106 km 150 kV ACunderground cable
Burbo BanksGreat Britain 200640 km 36 kV ACsubmarine cable
Q7Netherlands 200646 km 24 kV AC 28,5 km 170 kV ACsubmarine cable
GotlandSweden 19992x70 km +/-150 kV HVDC Lightunderground cable
Yttre StengrundSweden 20008 km 24 kV AC submarine cable4,5 km 24 kV ACunderground cable
UtgrundenSweden 200011 km 24 kV ACsubmarine cable
LillgrundSweden 200620 km 36 kV ACsubmarine cable 7,5 km 145 kV ACsubmarine cable 6 km 145 kV ACunderground cable
EnertragGermany 2002 / 200476 km 110 kV ACunderground cable
Borkum 2 2007120 km 150kV DCsubmarine cable
75 km 150 kV underground cable
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Electricity
markets
China’s Electricity
Market
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Electricity
marketsChina electricity consumption (2000 – 2006)
8.6%
11.6%
16.5%
14.5%13.6%
14.5%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
China Electricity Consumption Growth Rate (%)(Billion kWh)
Source: China Electric Council
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Electricity
markets Newly added installed capacity (2001 – 2010E)
19 18
35
52
74
105
90
80
65
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
E
2008
E
2009
E
2010
E
Source: China Electric Council
(GW)
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Electricity
markets Power grid investment (2001 – 2010E)
36
52
80
124
142
196
244
276
308
340
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
E
2008
E
2009
E
2010
E
Source: China State Grid and China Southern Grid
(Billion RMB)
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Electricity
markets Present situation energy industry in China
Energy supply remains a challenge
Power shortage during winter storms before Spring Festival. Thirteen provincial power grids had to impose restrictions on the consumption of electricity, with shortages amounting to the equivalent of 70 GW.
China„s coal-fired power plants, whose coal feedstocks are mainly supplied through railway transportation, reported coal inventories dramatically down from the end of January. The Ministry of Railway had difficulties trying to maximize the transportation of steam coal and coping with the mass exodus for Chinese New Year under extremely severe weather conditions
Energy saving and environmental protection are very high in the political agenda
System reform remains work in progress
Energy legislation undergoing a wide consultation process
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Electricity
markets 2006 Energy Flow Chart of China
Data Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,
"2007 Chinese Statistical Year Book ", published by National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Energy efficiency is about 37.5%
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Electricity
markets
Primary energy Transport Generation T&DIndustrial processes
Industrial production
Ava
ilab
le e
ne
rgy
ABB technology can reduce
losses by 20-30%
More efficient fuel combustion
Higher pipeline
flows
Improved well
efficiency Lower line losses, higher substation
efficiencyImproved
productivity
More efficient motors & drives
Drives &motors
Process
Automation
Marine & pipelines
Power plantautomation
Gridoperation
Processautomation
Reducing losses along the energy chain
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Electricity
markets
Forecast for China’s Power Supply and Demand
China forecast a power demand increase of 13.5 percent year-on-year, with total installed power capacity hitting 800GW by year end. Most regions will achieve a balance in power demand and supply this year, while southern region will still show a deficit. In 2009, China's power consumption will grow another 10 to 12.5 percent year-on-year, while a further 8 to 10 percent increase is forecast for 2010.
The closure of inefficient small coal mines, which took place on a wide scale last year, as well as the levy of different forms of environmental taxes, have significantly pushed up the costs of coal. At the same time, high consumer price index (CPI) figures have prevented the central government from raising power tariffs. Such a situation is not sustainable and can potentially lead to the country's worst fuel crisis.
Outlook energy industry in China
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Electricity
markets
Large hydropower plants
The China Three Gorges Project Corp. (CTPGC) will put the last five generators in the Three Gorges hydropower project into operation this year, meaning all 26 generators included in its initial construction plan will start operation by the end of 2008.
In addition, other large hydropower projects are being built by the CTGPC on Jinsha River upstream of the Yangtze River. The CTGPC plans to start dam construction on the 12„600MW Xiluodu hydropower project on the Jinsha River this November, and dam the Jinsha River for the 6„000MW Xiangjiaba hydropower project in December.
Total potential on hydropower in China is the largest in the world and amounts to around 500GW, requiring UHVDC transmission schemes extending up to 3000 kilometers
Outlook energy industry in China
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Electricity
markets
Wind power projects
China first large-scale offshore wind farm project will be constructed near Shanghai. The Donghai Bridge wind farm project is scheduled to be completed in 2009. It is estimated that the 102MW project will produce 267GWh of electricity annually. The electricity will be transmitted to Shanghai Municipality's power grid through submarine cables.
In Shanghai's neighboring Jiangsu Province, NDRC recently approved a plan by China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding and China Longyuan Electric Power Group to build a 300MW demonstration offshore wind farm in Jiangsu's Rudong county.
China has a total of 1„000 GW of wind power resources, 70% of which is located in offshore areas. Wind power industry will see a significant boost out of these projects.
Outlook energy industry in China
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Electricity
markets Power system reform
Energy legislation is being strengthened
Systemic reform in Electric industry; integration of upstream and downstream, domestic trade and international trade in oil industry; market-oriented coal production and sale
“Electric power law”, ”Law of coal industry “,”Energy-saving law”, ”Law of renewable energy”
“Electricity supervision and administration ordinance”, “Safety supervision ordinance of coal mines”, “Oil and natural gas pipelines protection ordinance”
“Energy Law”, ”Petroleum Law” and “Law of Recycling Economy” undergoing consultation process
To strengthen the government management on the energy sector, a high-level national energy commission is in the process of being established
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Electricity
markets
Energy saving and environment
Optimize energy consumption structure applying market mechanism and government‟s promotion for energy saving and environment protection.
Promote the energy price reform actively. Realize the price forming mechanism to reflect the resources scarcity, market supply-demand relation and the cost of pollution reduction. Build up the price system, which can help to realize energy structure adjustments and sustainable development.
Tax the export of high energy-consuming, high pollutant and high resource-consuming products, promoting quality improvement and cleanliness of manufacturing processes
Improve the market environment for renewable energy development combining the principles of government guidance, policy supporting and market mechanisms
Recommendations
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Electricity
markets
Enhance market access latest and most advanced power technologies
Create an even playing field for domestic and foreign owned companies alike in public procurement of high end power technology products and systems
Enhance convergence of domestic technical standards with global standards in power technologies
Promote foreign investment in advanced power technologies and innovation as valuable contribution to the successful development of Chinese industry
Expose domestic companies to competition with the world‟s best as a mean to foster the strategic development of the national economy
Recommendations
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Electricity
markets
This city can‘t wait for electricity
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Electricity
markets