Post on 09-Dec-2014
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Green Agricultural Policyand the Commons
Dr Darko ZnaorIndependent Environmental Consultant
Vis, August 24, 2014
ContentsContents
1. Agric. & the commons & economy2. Western Balkans agri study3. Conceptual & practical challenges4. Results5. Lessons learnt & conclusions
1. Agric. & the commons & economy2. Western Balkans agri study3. Conceptual & practical challenges4. Results5. Lessons learnt & conclusions
Agriculture&
the commons
Agriculture&
the commons
Agriculture & the commonsAgriculture & the commons
• Food• Land, water & genetic resources• Provision of ecosystem services• Socio-cultural & spiritual dimension
REFLECTED IN POLICY
• Food• Land, water & genetic resources• Provision of ecosystem services• Socio-cultural & spiritual dimension
REFLECTED IN POLICY
Agri ecosystem services affect well beingAgri ecosystem services affect well being
1. Security - shelter and the ability to reduce vulnerability to ecological shocks and stress.
2. Basic material for a good life (income & livelihood.
3. Health - access to nourishment, freedom from diseases, access to adequate and clean drinking water, clean air, etc.
1. Security - shelter and the ability to reduce vulnerability to ecological shocks and stress.
2. Basic material for a good life (income & livelihood.
3. Health - access to nourishment, freedom from diseases, access to adequate and clean drinking water, clean air, etc.
Agri commons vs. economyAgri commons vs. economy
How much and who should pay it?
HBS’s Western Balkans agri study in a nutshell
HBS’s Western Balkans agri study in a nutshell
??What if... in B&H, HR, MNE and SRBWhat if... in B&H, HR, MNE and SRB
Policy makersPolicy makers
Farming reality in WBFarming reality in WB
TR
AN
SP
OR
T
TRANSPORT
TR
AD
E
ENERGY
Energy
FARMING
SER
VIC
ES
IND
US
TR
Y
Pesticides Vet. medicineFertilisers MachineryFeedstuff
Raw material
Agri inputs
Ag
ri in
pu
ts
Knowl.
Impact onImpact on
Labour force
State of environmentProduction
GDP
Econ
om
yEcon
om
yS
ocio
-econ
om
.S
ocio
-econ
om
.
Food
secu
rity
Food
secu
rity
Qu
ality
of
lifeQ
uality
of
life
Impact assessment
Monetary assessment(valuation)
Non-monetary assessment(quantification)
Economic sectors
Labour force employed
Environmental degradation
Quantity of airpollutants
Quantity of waterpollutants
Quantity of Clost/emitted from soil
Volume of agriculturalproduction
Gross value added
(€)
Environmentalcosts
(€)
Publicexpenditures
(€)
Realvalue added
(€)
Agriculture Fertiliser manufacturing
Baseline(2009)
BAUscenario
ECOscenario
ECO+scenario
Quantity ofGHG
= pURO = real added-value = pURO = real added-value
GVA agriculture & fertiliser manufacturing
minus environmental costs fUTURO
minus public expenditures
GVA agriculture & fertiliser manufacturing
minus environmental costs fUTURO
minus public expenditures
Environmental costs & public expenditures
Environmental costs & public expenditures
Environmental externalitiesEnvironmental externalities
negative
• damage to soil, water, air• biodiversity loss • non-renewable resource use (energy, phosphate, peat)
• damage to soil, water, air• biodiversity loss • non-renewable resource use (energy, phosphate, peat)
• biodiversity maintenance• ecosystems functioning (C sequestration, water, etc.)
• biodiversity maintenance• ecosystems functioning (C sequestration, water, etc.)
negative positive
• damage to soil, water, air• biodiversity loss • non-renewable resource
use (energy, phosphate, peat)
• damage to soil, water, air• biodiversity loss • non-renewable resource
use (energy, phosphate, peat)
Damage to air/climateDamage to air/climate
Damage to waterDamage to water
Damage to soilDamage to soil
Hidden subsidies Hidden subsidies
Conceptual & practicalchallenges
Conceptual & practicalchallenges
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
hect
ares
108% peryear
30% peryear
10% peryear
67 67 65 64
44
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Wheat Barley Sugar beet
Grain maize
Cows' milk Potatoes
% o
f EU-1
5 yi
elds
182
153 148141 138
121 117103
63 6248
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
% o
f co
nven
tiona
l yie
ld
yields
price output
prod. costs
GM transaction
input 1
input 2
mech.
Pricing externalities...Pricing externalities...
... a big methodological challenge... a big methodological challenge
Only a fraction of ecosystem services included
Only a fraction of ecosystem services included
Public expenditurePublic expenditure
negative
positive
• agricultural subsidies• hidden subsidy to AC ind.• investments in gas
pipelines• administration• research and education• road & ditches
maintenance• pesticide disposal• incidental pollutions • storage/cooling?• damage to human health?• health care?
• agricultural subsidies• hidden subsidy to AC ind.• investments in gas
pipelines• administration• research and education• road & ditches
maintenance• pesticide disposal• incidental pollutions • storage/cooling?• damage to human health?• health care?
• food security• employment• landscape/recreation space• others?
• food security• employment• landscape/recreation space• others?
RESULTSRESULTS
Results BASELINEResults BASELINE
288,306
205,760 47,042
453,910
995,018
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
B&H HR MNE SER Total
AW
U
39,89387,094
5,590
212,431
345,007
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
B&H HR MNE SER Total
CU
774
1,501
106
1,879
4,260
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
B&H HR MNE SER Total
ME
UR
624 793
68
1,544128154
26
475
96
26
52
73
6
264
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
B&H HR MNE SER
ME
UR
Air Climate Water Soil
40
385
0103
78
0
26
28
55
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
B&H HR MNE SER
ME
UR
Direct paymentsAgric. fuelSubsd. gas priceOthers
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
B&H HR MNE SER
-99-169
6
-570
68 5530 140
8051,117
100
2,309
7741,501
106
1,879
ME
UR
RVA Public expend. Envir. costs GVA
DEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS
DEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS
995,018
895,516
1,089,9121,119,417
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
1,150,000
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
AW
U
345,007
310,002
373,096
460,626
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
CU
4,260 3,931
4,866
6,366
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
ME
UR
528 528 528 528
104 104 104 104
46 330 0
8380
100 100
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
MEU
R
Direct payments
Agric. fuel
Subsd. gas price
Others
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Baseline BAUECO
ECO+
-832 -449 5512,051
761744
732 732
4,2603,931
4,866
6,366
4,331
3,635 3,5833,583
ME
UR
RVA Public expend. Envir. costs GVA
Baseline
BAU
ECO
ECO+
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Economic performance Employment
Food production
166
110 108
347
113 134
146
9090
100100
100
Baseline
BAU
ECO
ECO+
LESS
ONS
LEARNT
&
CONCL
USI
ONS
• Work load & complexity
• Pioneering work
• Methodolgical issues
• Bold & courageous
Key policy – relevant findingsKey policy – relevant findings
1. Agric. in the Western Balkans does matter
2. Current agri policy provide a ‘low profile’ support to OF
3. Current farming does not create any RVA
4. Key = build soil fertility and human and social capital
5. Conversion to OF provides more jobs
6. Conversion to OF produces more food
7. Going organic is “greener”
8. Going organic is more profitable
9. Business as usual is not an option
1. Agric. in the Western Balkans does matter
2. Current agri policy provide a ‘low profile’ support to OF
3. Current farming does not create any RVA
4. Key = build soil fertility and human and social capital
5. Conversion to OF provides more jobs
6. Conversion to OF produces more food
7. Going organic is “greener”
8. Going organic is more profitable
9. Business as usual is not an option
Additional considerationsAdditional considerations
1. Acounting true cost of farming is KEY
2. Pricing ecosystem services – fair & possible???
3. What is a proper policy mix?
4. Introduction of green agri accounting?
1. Acounting true cost of farming is KEY
2. Pricing ecosystem services – fair & possible???
3. What is a proper policy mix?
4. Introduction of green agri accounting?
Human and social capital ???
Human and social capital ???
THANK YOU!darko@znaor.eu