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Ecological Risks in the Ecological Risks in the Caloosahatchee Estuary: Caloosahatchee Estuary:
A Conceptual Model Developed A Conceptual Model Developed through the Southwest Florida through the Southwest Florida
Feasibility Study Feasibility Study
Darren Rumbold, Ph. DDarren Rumbold, Ph. DProfessor of Marine ScienceProfessor of Marine Science
Depart. of Marine and Ecological SciencesDepart. of Marine and Ecological SciencesCoastal Watershed InstituteCoastal Watershed Institute
Florida Gulf Coast UniversityFlorida Gulf Coast University
Southwest Florida Feasibility Study (SWFFS)Southwest Florida Feasibility Study (SWFFS) Purpose and Relationship to Comprehensive Purpose and Relationship to Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and Critical Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and Critical ProjectsProjects The Restudy recommended a
separate Comprehensive watershed study for Southwest Florida with the following purposes
• Health of aquatic ecosystems
• Water flows
• Water quality (including appropriate pollution reduction targets)
• Water supply (Lower West Coast Water Supply Plan)
• Flood damage reduction
• Wildlife and biological diversity
• Natural habitat
• Recreation (opportunity)
Barnes, 2005
Benefits of Developing Conceptual Models?Benefits of Developing Conceptual Models?
• The process of creating a conceptual model is a powerful learning tool.
• Conceptual models are easily modified as knowledge increases.
• Conceptual models highlight what is known and not known and can be used to plan future work.
• Conceptual models can be a powerful communication tool. They provide an explicit expression of the assumptions and understanding of a system for others to evaluate.
• Conceptual models provide a framework for prediction and are the template for generating more risk hypotheses.
Barnes, 2005
StressorsStressors
• Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise• Water Management Water Management • Land Use & Land Use &
Management Management • Maintaining NavigationMaintaining Navigation
• Altered Estuarine Altered Estuarine SalinitySalinity
• Altered HydrologyAltered Hydrology• Input & Elevated Levels Input & Elevated Levels
of Nutrients, Dissolved of Nutrients, Dissolved Organics & ToxinsOrganics & Toxins
• Boating & Fishing Boating & Fishing PressurePressure
• Physical Alteration to Physical Alteration to EstuaryEstuary
DriversDrivers
Altered Salinity RegimeAltered Salinity Regime
• While estuarine species are generally well adapted to cope with varying salinity conditions, larger shifts and timing of freshwater discharges can be a problem.
– impacts the community structure and function of phytoplankton, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), macroalgae, benthos- particularly oysters and fisheries
• Secondary, or indirect, effects on manatee demographics and wading bird community structure
Important to Clearly Identify and Important to Clearly Identify and Communicate Cascading Adverse EffectsCommunicate Cascading Adverse Effects
• Primary, or direct, effects: Primary, or direct, effects: – occur when a stressor acts directly on the occur when a stressor acts directly on the
assessment endpoint and causes an adverse assessment endpoint and causes an adverse response response
• Secondary, or indirect, effects: Secondary, or indirect, effects: – occur when the entity’s response becomes a occur when the entity’s response becomes a
stressor to another entitystressor to another entity– are often a series of effects among a diversity of are often a series of effects among a diversity of
organisms and processes that cascade through organisms and processes that cascade through the ecosystemthe ecosystem
– may have greater ecological significance than may have greater ecological significance than primary effectprimary effect
Increased Nutrients & Increased Nutrients & ContaminantsContaminants
• Biostimulants, e.g., inorganic and Biostimulants, e.g., inorganic and organic nutrients, influence growth and organic nutrients, influence growth and community structure of phytoplankton, community structure of phytoplankton, macroalgae, and microbes.macroalgae, and microbes.
– Indirect effects on SAV, zooplankton, fish Indirect effects on SAV, zooplankton, fish and other aquatic organisms from: 1) light and other aquatic organisms from: 1) light attenuation, 2) altered dissolved oxygen attenuation, 2) altered dissolved oxygen concentrations, and 3) biotoxins concentrations, and 3) biotoxins
• which, in turn, can have cascading effects on which, in turn, can have cascading effects on manatee, dolphins and wading bird community manatee, dolphins and wading bird community structurestructure
Cloern 2001, Marine Ecology Progress Series
Table 1. Summary of findings of water quality assessments in the Caloosahatchee Estuary, San Carlos Bay, Pine Island Sound and Matlacha Pass.
Waterbody Doering and
Chamberlain, 1998a
Janicki Environ. Inc.,
2002b
FDEP, 2002; 2003c
ERD, 2003d Janicki Environ
Inc., 2003e Tetra Tech, Inc., 2004f
Upper Caloosahatchee (WBID 3240C)
Chl a>11 ug/L TP>state median TN>state median DO<WQS Color rel. high
Chl a>ref. site, IWR TN>ref. site TP>historic, ref. site DO<historic, ref. site, IWR Turbidity>historic
Impaired for: Chl a, DO, coliform
Strong gradient with decreasing conc. of most constituents with increasing dist. from S79; Chl a>11 ug/L DO<WQS
Unaccept. based on informal IWR: Chl a, DO, coliform; trend of declining WQ in BOD, TSS, nutrients, secchi depth
Decreasing trends in DO, increasing trends in turbidity, potassium and TN; Improvements in TP; Water of Concern: Fecal Coliform, DO, unionized ammonia (tribs), nutrients, iron, copper, conductance (tribs)
Middle Caloosahatchee (WBID 3240B)
Chl a>11 ug/L TN > state median
Chl a>ref. site, IWR TN>ref. site TP>ref. site DO<ref. site, IWR Turbidity>ref. site
Impaired for: Chl a, DO, copper, coliform
Spike in downstream gradient in ammonia, TKN, TN and Chl a. Chl a>11 ug/L
Unaccept. based on informal IWR: Chl a, DO, coliform; trend of declining WQ in BOD, TSS, nutrients, secchi depth
Decreasing trends in DO, increasing trends in turbidity, BOD, TSS; mixed trends in TP; Water of Concern: Fecal Coliform, DO, unionized ammonia (tribs), nutrients, iron, copper
Lower Caloosahatchee (WBID 3240A)
TN>state median
Chl a>ref. site, IWR TN>ref. site TP>historic, ref. site DO<historic, ref. site, IWR Turbidity>historic
Impaired for: Chl a, DO, copper, lead, biology
Mean DO>WQS
Unaccept. based on informal IWR: Chl a, DO, coliform; trend of declining WQ in BOD, TSS, nutrients, secchi depth
Decreasing trends in DO, increasing trends in turbidity, TSS, nitrite+nitrate, BOD, TP, and fecal coliform; mixed trends with TNand TKN, Water of Concern: Fecal Coliform, DO, nutrients, iron, copper, conductance (tribs)
Table 1. Continued.
Waterbody Doering and
Chamberlain, 1998a
Janicki Environ.
Inc., 2002b
FDEP, 2002; 2003c
ERD, 2003d
Janicki Environ Inc.,
2003e
Tetra Tech, Inc., 2004f
San Carlos Bay (WBID 2065H)
Chl a rel. low TN>state median DO rel. high Turbidity rel. low; TSS > state median
not assessed
No listed impairment
Chl a<11 ug/L Mean DO>WQS
Assessed under Matlacha Pass
DO, turbidity trends not assessed;
Pine Island Sound (WBID 2065E and G)
Chl a rel. low TN>statewide median DO rel. high TSS>state median
not assessed
Impaired for: bacteria (in shellfish)
not assessed
Accept. based on informal IWR; exceedances in ammonia and DO at some stations
Decreasing trends in DO; Water of Concern: Fecal Coliform, DO (Sanibel), nutrients (St James City)
Matlacha Pass (WBID 2065F)
Chl a rel. low TN>state median DO rel. high
not assessed
No listed impairment
not assessed
Accept. based on informal IWR; improving trends in secchi depth and TN
Decreasing trends in DO, increasing trends in turbidity Water of Concern: Fecal Coliform, DO (Gator Slough)
SW coast not assessed not assessed
Mercury not assessed
Water of Concern: nutrients
Increased Nutrients & Increased Nutrients & ContaminantsContaminants
• Toxicants, both metals and organics (e.g., Toxicants, both metals and organics (e.g., pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products) could be having insidious care products) could be having insidious effects on individuals (e.g., effects on individuals (e.g., immunosuppression, behavior, etc.) immunosuppression, behavior, etc.) populations and community structure.populations and community structure.
– Loss or contamination of prey can have Loss or contamination of prey can have indirect effects on fish and wildlife indirect effects on fish and wildlife predators (e.g., sharks, dolphins, birds), as predators (e.g., sharks, dolphins, birds), as well as human consumerswell as human consumers
WQ PERFORMANCE MEASURE
Loading model
Process model,e.g., ECOlab
BMP effectiveness as % reduction
Parameter;causal, response or both
HSI model; BPJEco-resource,
e.g., SAV, oysters, redfish; sawgrass
Reference site, e.g., 10K Island,
25th - 75th percentilefor a given salinity regime
Historical-based,e.g., natural systems, OFW, etc.
WQS; Inflow v. outflow
Target
Habitat Units, e.g., acres, lbs,
Catch per unit effort
TSS; TurbidityDOC / DOM;
TN (NOx + TKN); TP, SRP
Empirical model, e.g., regression
Empirical model, e.g., regression
Process model,
e.g., ECOlab
Input parameters will include: Land use
SoilsTopography
Land use-specific event mean conc.Land use-sp. runoff coefficient
Many other simplifying assump.
Input parameters might include: water-column BOD, COD; sediment oxygen demand;
adsorption coeff., particle-size distribution, settling coeff.;rates of nitrification, denitrification, mineralization and fixation;
reaeration rate (SA/vol., temp., turbulence, stratification, algal growth, photosynthesis, respiration, settling rates;
light avail. (note, inter-dependence).
Output Scale ??? Instantaneous minimum ---Seasonal means
Point - River segment - Spatially explicit
Constraint
Dissolved Oxygen; Chl-a;
Color; Clarity / PAR
concentration
concentration
loads
NEED TO CONNECT THE DOTs
Basine.g., C43,
Tidal Caloosahatchee, Estero, and BCB
Componentspecific
loads
loads
Fraction of Freshwater
Method, i.e., mass balance
conc
entr
atio
n
BPJ
Coordinate w/ Natural Systems Group
Cloern 2001, Marine Ecology Progress Series
Simultaneous Effects of Multiple Stressors
“The presence of multiple stressors may either increase or dampen the temporal and spatial variability seen in aquatic systems, depending on the interactions among stressors and the influence of background environmental conditions and sensitive species on the expression of stressor effects.” (Breitburg et al. 1999)
Breitburg et al. 1999
Barnes, 2005
Take Home MessageTake Home Message
• Many people invested an incredible amount Many people invested an incredible amount of time and energy in the SWFFS developing of time and energy in the SWFFS developing decision-support products such as the decision-support products such as the conceptual model conceptual model
• Although those products should serve Although those products should serve as a as a strong foundation, they can be improved strong foundation, they can be improved upon and expanded, especially theupon and expanded, especially the predictive predictive models linking stressors with eco-resources models linking stressors with eco-resources
• We are not under the same constraints as We are not under the same constraints as SWFFS and so can develop an analysis plan SWFFS and so can develop an analysis plan for research to fill data gaps, particularly on for research to fill data gaps, particularly on simultaneous effects of multiple stressors simultaneous effects of multiple stressors and indirect effectsand indirect effects