Data Fusion & Resource Management (DF&RM) Dual Node ......Hypothesis Evaluation Christopher Bowman,...

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  • Data Fusion & Resource Management (DF&RM) Dual Node

    Network (DNN) Association Hypothesis Evaluation

    Christopher Bowman, PhD.

    Data Fusion & Neural Networks (DF&NN)

    Sept 2020

  • Briefing Objectives

    • Provide an understanding of the roles for Data Fusion & Resource

    Management (DF&RM)

    • Describe how the Data Fusion heritage can be used to “jump-start” dual

    Resource Management solutions

    • Describe DF&RM Dual Node Network (DNN) Technical Architecture

    • Provide Problem-to-Solution Mappings for Data Association

    • Provide Baseline Max A Posteriori (MAP) Data Association Hypothesis

    Evaluation Equations

  • AGENDA

    ❖DF&RM Dual Node Network (DNN) Technical Architecture

    ➢Distributed Data Fusion Node Networks

    ➢Data Association Hypothesis Evaluation Alternatives

  • Fusion & Management Lie in the Gap Between “Observe” and “Act”

    • Data Fusion is the process of combining data/information to

    estimate or predict the state of some aspect of the world.

    • Resource Management is the process of planning/

    controlling response capabilities to meet mission objectives

    E

    N

    V

    I

    R

    O

    N

    M

    E

    N

    T

    Sensors/

    Sources

    Data

    Fusion

    Resource

    Management

    U

    S

    E

    R

    I

    N

    T

    E

    R

    F

    A

    C

    E

    Response

    Systems

    “Observe” “Orient”

    “Act” “Decide”

  • Sensor Fusion Exploits Sensor Commonalities and Differences

    Data Association Uses Overlapping Sensor Capabilities so that State Estimation Can Exploit their Synergies

    CONFIDENCECOVERT

    COVERAGE

    DETECTION

    RANGE ANGLE

    KINEMATICS

    CLASS TYPE

    CLASSIFICATION

    POOR GOOD FAIR FAIR POOR

    FAIR POOR GOOD FAIR FAIR

    FAIR FAIR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD

    RADAR

    EO/IR

    C3I

    GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD

    DataPreparation

    DataAssociation

    StateEstimation

    DataFusion

    FAIR

    FAIR

    RADAR

    EO/IR

    SIGINT

    TARGET ORENTITY OFINTEREST

  • Resource Management Exploits Sensor Commonalities & Differences(Sensor Management Example)

    Sensor Task Planning Uses Overlapping Sensor Capabilities so that Control Can Exploit their Synergies

    CONFIDENCECOVERT

    COVERAGE

    DETECTION

    RANGE ANGLE

    KINEMATICS

    CLASS TYPE

    CLASSIFICATION

    POOR GOOD FAIR FAIR POOR

    FAIR POOR GOOD FAIR FAIR

    FAIR FAIR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD

    RADAR

    EO/IR

    C3I

    ResourceManagement

    FAIR

    FAIR

    TARGET

    TaskPreparation

    TaskPlanning

    Tasking/Control

    GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD

    DataPreparation

    DataAssociation

    StateEstimation

    DataFusion

  • 2004 Revision of the Joint Director’s Lab Data Fusion Model

    ResourceMgmtExternal

    Distributed

    Local

    INTELEW

    SONARRADAR

    .

    .

    .Data

    bases

    SOURCES

    Database ManagementSystem

    SupportDatabase

    FusionDatabase

    Human/ComputerInterface

    Level 4Processing

    SYSTEM

    ASSESSMENT

    DATA FUSION DOMAIN

    Level 1Processing

    ENTITYASSESSMENT

    Level 2Processing

    SITUATIONASSESSMENT

    Level 3Processing

    IMPACTASSESSMENT

    Level 0Processing

    SIGNAL/FEATURE

    ASSESSMENT

  • Using a Fusion & Management Architecture Will Stop One-of-a-Kind Software Developments

    • Architectures are frequently used mechanisms to address a broad range of common requirements to achieve interoperability and affordabilityobjectives

    • An architecture (IEEE definition) is a structure of components, their relationships, and the principles and guidelines governing their design and evolution over time

    • An architecture should:• Identify a focused purpose with sufficient breadth to achieve affordability objectives

    • Facilitate user understanding/communication

    • Permit comparison, integration, and interoperability

    • Promote expandability, modularity, and reusability

    • Achieve most useful results with least cost of development

  • Role for DF&RM DNN Technical Architecture Within the “DoD Architecture Framework”

    • The operational architecture provides the “what and who” operational needs

    • The technical architecture provides “problem-to-solution space” guidance

    • The systems architecture defines the “how” to build the operational system

  • DF&RM DNN Technical Architecture Applies at Application Layer

    Registration

    H/W Environment Executive S/W Environment

    V_OODB Database: Source Data, Fused Products + Libraries

    Core Information Environment

    ISR Tactical Operations

    Management

    User Interface

    & Visualization

    Model Services Metrics

    Data Services: Pedigrees, Access, Query

    Apps

    Resource

    s

    Sensors

    Resource

    s

    Sensors ISR Tactical

    Operatio

    ns

    Fusion

    Common Interface: APIs, etc.

  • Data Mining Provides DF&RM Models

    ➢ Data Mining discovers and models some as aspect of data input to each fusion level

    ➢ Data Fusion combines data to estimate/predict the desired state at each fusion level

    Space

    Situation

    Tracks

    Data Mining

    Parameters

    TrnSat &

    TP3

    Measu

    remen

    ts &

    SOH

    Level 0 Mining & Fusion

    AbNet

    L0 Fusion

    L0 Mining

    Parameters

    ClassCat &

    Trigger Det

    Abnormality

    Detections

    Level 1 Mining & Fusion

    CleverSet

    L1 Event

    Tracking

    On -line

    SOH

    NN Weights,

    Signature

    Models,

    & Cause

    Taxonomy

    Tracking

    Triggers

    & Event

    Models

    L1 Mining

    Parameters

    TemPats &

    Track Viewer

    Level 2 Mining & Fusion

    CRA L2

    Situation

    Tracking

    Relationship

    Ontology

    & Situation

    Models

    Abnormal

    Event Tracks

    L2 Mining

    Parameters

    Analyst

    L2 Viewer

    Level 3 Mining & Fusion

    L3 Impact

    Prediction

    Course

    of Action

    & Impact

    Models

    Mission

    Impacts

    Data Mining

    Data Fusion

    Space

    Situation

    Tracks

    Data Mining

    Parameters

    TrnSat &

    Supervisor

    Measu

    remen

    ts &

    SOH

    Level 0 Mining & Fusion

    AbNet

    L0 Fusion

    L0 Mining

    Parameters

    ClassCat &

    Trigger Det

    Abnormality

    Detections

    Level 1 Mining & Fusion

    L1 Event

    Tracking

    On -line

    SOH

    NN Weights,

    Signature

    Models,

    & Cause

    Taxonomy

    Tracking

    Triggers

    & Event

    Models

    L1 Mining

    Parameters

    Smoking Gun

    Track Viewer

    Level 2 Mining & Fusion

    L2

    Situation

    Tracking

    Relationship

    Ontology

    & Situation

    Models

    Abnormal

    Event Tracks

    L2 Mining

    Parameters

    Analyst

    L2 CTP

    Level 3 Mining & Fusion

    L3 Impact

    Prediction

    Course

    of Action

    & Impact

    Models

    Mission

    Impacts

    Data Mining

    Data Fusion

  • Fusion Network Selected to Balance Performance & Complexity

    Single Platform

    Single Sensor

    Single Time

    Single Data

    Type

    Least

    Complex

    Tree

    Knee-of-the Curve

    Fusion Tree

    All Platforms

    All Sensors/Sources

    All Past Times

    All Data Types

    Best

    Performance

    Tree

    Data Fusion

    Performance

    Data Fusion Cost/Complexity

    “Knee of Curve” Design

  • DF&RM Trees Divide & Conquer the Problem

    ResourcesResources

  • RESOURCE MGMT

    Management Architecture

    • “Fan-out” Tree

    • Task batching by resource, time horizon or command type

    Response Planning

    • Exploit overlapping resource capabilities

    • Generate, evaluate & select response plans

    Control

    • Exploit independent resource capabilities

    • Use assignments w/ performance parameters to compute control

    Resources

    Mgmt Nodes

    DF/RM Duality Allows Similar Approaches & Consistent Operation

    DATA FUSION

    Fusion Architecture

    • “Fan-in” Tree

    • Data batching by source, past time or data type

    Association

    • Exploit overlappingmeasurement observables

    • Generate, evaluate & select association hypotheses

    Estimation

    • Exploit independent measurement observables

    • Use associations w/ a prioriparameters to compute estimates

    Sensors

    Fusion Nodes

    DUALITY

  • DF & RM Node Duality FacilitatesUnderstanding of Alternatives & Reuse

    DATA ASSOCIATION

    DATA FUSION NODE

    DATAPREPARATION

    (CommonReferencing)

    RESOURCE MGT CONTROLS & DF NEEDS

    Sources& Prior

    DF Nodes

    Useror Next

    DF NodeSTATE

    ESTIMATION&

    PREDICTION

    HYPOTHESISGENERATION

    HYPOTHESISEVALUATION

    HYPOTHESISSELECTION

    PLANTASKING/CONTROL

    RESOURCE MANAGEMENT NODE

    TASKPREPARATION

    (CommonReferencing)

    RESOURCE STATUS

    RESPONSE TASK PLANNING

    PLANGENERATION

    PLANEVALUATION

    Useror Prior

    RM Node

    Resources& Next

    RM Nodes

    PLANSELECTION

    SENSOR STATUS

    RM NEEDS & DATA FUSION ESTIMATES

  • Sample Interlaced Network of DF&RM Dual Level Interactions

    Source

    Fusion

    Level 0:

    Feature

    Assessment

    Sensor

    Sensor

    Sensors

    Source

    Fusion

    Level 1:

    Entity

    Assessment

    Fusion

    Level 2:

    Situation

    Assessment

    Fusion

    Level 3:

    Impact

    Assessment

    Management

    Level 0:

    Resource

    Signal

    Management

    Management

    Level 1:

    Resource

    Response

    Management

    Weapons

    Mission

    Management

    Level 3:

    Mission

    Objective

    Management

    Management

    Level 2:

    Resource

    Relationship

    ManagementComm

    Data Fusion Node Network

    Resource Management Node Network

    Resources

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    Sources

    Fusion

    Level 4:

    System

    Assessment

    Management

    Level 4:

    System

    Management

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    User

    I/O(at all

    levels

    as

    needed)

  • Sample DF&RM Node Network for Battlefield Awareness

    HSI

    EO/IR

    m

    s,d

    Tracks

    s,d

    Impacts• Mission

    Objectives

    • Vulnerabilities

    • Cost

    Entities• Terrorists

    • ClandestineLabs

    • Vehicles

    • Underground

    facilities

    • - etc.

    Relationships• Terrorist Nets

    • Red Units

    • Joint Force

    • Red-to-Blue

    • Logistics

    Tracks

    s,d

    L.1

    s,dTracks

    s,d

    F

    L.1

    Tracks

    s,d

    Tracks

    s,d

    s,d

    mm,s,

    d s,d

    F

    M

    F

    M

    mLF-

    RADAR

    mF

    M

    F

    M

    F

    M

    mSAR

    mF

    M

    F

    M

    F

    M

    F

    M

    HUMINT

    KEY

    m = Measurements (pixels, waveforms, etc.)

    s = States (continuous parameters)

    d = Discrete Attributes (target type, IFFN)

    r = Aggregate Mission Response Directives

    t = Resource tasks, Resource modes

    c = Command/Control

    = Data Fusion Node = Resource Mgmt NodeF M

    t t

    ttc

    ttc

    tc

    tc

    L.3

    dF

    M

    L.2

    dF

    Mr

    L.1

    dF

    Mr,t

    Sample System

    Architecture

    U

    S

    E

    R

    r

  • Sample Interlaced Tree of DF&RM Nodes

    UserInterface*

    Theater

    Fusion/BMC4I

    Platform Fusion

    FN

    MN

    MN

    MN MN

    FN

    FN

    On/Off Board

    Fusion

    FN

    MN

    Internetted Sources

    MN

    FN

    MN

    FN FN

    FN = Fusion Node

    MN = Management

    Node

    MN

    FN

    MN

    FN

    H

    A

    R

    D

    W

    A

    R

    E

    MASINT

    Radar

    ESM

    Theater Sites

    MN

    FN

    MN

    FN

    Platform Sensors

    MN

    FN

    Nat’l Asset Fusion

    MN

    FN

    Theater Platforms

    MN

    FN

    Theater

    Platform Fusion

    MN

    FN

    MN

    FN

    Platform

    Nat’l Asset Platforms

    Sensors

    Weapons

    FLIR

    Sensors

    Theater Sources

    *User Interfaces (such as

    shown) Can Occur

    Throughout DF&RM

    Tree/Network

    MN MN

    FN

    MN MN

    FN

    Sensor Fusion

    RF Fusion

    Other Information/Response Requests

  • The DNN Architecture DF&RM System Engineering Process Includes Rapid Prototyping

    Operational Test & Evaluation

    DESIGN PHASE

    1. Operational

    Architecture

    Design:

    System Role

    2. System

    Architecture Design:

    Fusion &

    Management

    Network

    3. Component

    Function Design:

    Fusion &

    Management Node

    Processing

    4. Detailed Design/

    Development:

    Pattern Application

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    PerformanceEvaluation

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Feedback for System Role Optimization

    Feedback for Network Optimization

    Feedback for Node Optimization

    Feedback for Design (Pattern)

    Optimization

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Design

    Constraints

    User Needs

    & Use Cases

    PerformanceEvaluation

    PerformanceEvaluation

    PerformanceEvaluation

    Design Development (per level)

  • AGENDA

    ➢DF&RM Dual Node Network (DNN) Technical Architecture

    ❖Distributed Data Fusion Node Networks

    ➢Data Association Hypothesis Evaluation Alternatives

  • The DNN Architecture DF&RM System Engineering Process

    Operational Test & Evaluation

    DESIGN PHASE

    1. Operational

    Architecture

    Design:

    System Role

    2. System

    Architecture Design:

    Fusion &

    Management

    Network

    3. Component

    Function Design:

    Fusion &

    Management Node

    Processing

    4. Detailed Design/

    Development:

    Pattern Application

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    PerformanceEvaluation

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Feedback for System Role Optimization

    Feedback for Network Optimization

    Feedback for Node Optimization

    Feedback for Design (Pattern)

    Optimization

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Design

    Constraints

    User Needs

    & Scenarios

    PerformanceEvaluation

    PerformanceEvaluation

    PerformanceEvaluation

    Design Development (per level)

  • Fusion Node Network Examples

    FN FN FN FN FN FN FN

    Radar

    Single Source Tracker

    Time-Batched

    Radar

    ESMImaging

    IR

    FN FN FN FN FN FN FN

    t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7

    Event-Driven

    Radar

    ESMImaging

    IR

    FN FN FN FN FN FN

    FN FN FN FN FN FN FN

    Radar

    ESM

    FN FN FN

    FN FN

    Event-DrivenFusion

    Event-DrivenFusion

    Time-BatchedFusion

    FN

    Hybrid Tree

  • Global Track Reinitialization with Local Track Sharing

    site 2 multi-sensor fusion nodes

    site 2 sensor fusion nodes

    site 1 multi-sensor fusion nodes

    site 1 sensor fusion nodes

    site 3 sensor fusion nodes

    MULTI-SENSOR FUSION WITH BATCHED LOCAL TRACK SHARING

    site 2 multi-sensor fusion nodes

  • Complementarity of Five Distributed Tracking Fusion Networks

    FUSION TREES PERFORMANCE DESCRIPTORS

    Multi-Sensor Fusion with

    Data Communicated

    Track Reinitialization

    Sensor Tracker Impacts

    Track Error Correlations

    Flexibility Issues

    Measurement Sharing

    sensor measurements

    no reinitialization

    sensor track tailoring at global sites

    none highest bandwidth comm

    Sensor Node Track Reinitialization

    local track state

    sensor filter reinitialization after send

    sensor filter modifications needed

    sensor filter process noise correlations

    simultaneous comm output

    Tracklets From Tracks

    local track state

    no reinitialization

    only standard KF updates

    inverse KF to remove correlations

    For non-maneuvering entities

    Local Track Sharing

    local track state (plus reports)

    global track reinitialization

    use tailored sensor trackers as is

    process noise & misalignments correlate

    Sending reports Increases BW

    Globlal Track Sharing

    global track state

    no global filter use tailored sensor trackers as is

    correlations reduce accuracy

    ID with pedigree fused

  • AOC

    JSFFlight Leader

    JSFIndividual

    Sensors

    low-latency

    information path

    high-latency

    information path

    intermediate-latency

    information path

    Fusion Updates CTP with New Data; Adjudication Maintains Consistency

    Note: Alerts of sufficient

    confidence and priority

    propagate immediately to

    all affected nodes at all

    levels

    External Systems

    Off-boardassets

    CTP

    CTP

    CTP

    Updates

    Off-boardassets

    Updates

    UpdatesExternalassets

    Adjudication

    Sensor Reports

    Sensor

    Tracks

    Sensor Tracks

    Sensor

    Fusion

    Adjudication

    Advisements Sent up and Directives Sent Down Echelons Insure Consistency of the Operational Picture.

  • AGENDA

    ➢DF&RM Dual Node Network (DNN) Technical Architecture

    ➢Distributed Data Fusion Node Networks

    ❖Data Association Hypothesis Evaluation Alternatives

  • The DNN Architecture DF&RM System Engineering Process

    Operational Test & Evaluation

    DESIGN PHASE

    1. Operational

    Architecture

    Design:

    System Role

    2. System

    Architecture Design:

    Fusion &

    Management

    Network

    3. Component

    Function Design:

    Fusion &

    Management Node

    Processing

    4. Detailed Design/

    Development:

    Pattern Application

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    Functional

    Partitioning

    Point

    Design

    PerformanceEvaluation

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Requirements

    Analysis

    Feedback for System Role Optimization

    Feedback for Network Optimization

    Feedback for Node Optimization

    Feedback for Design (Pattern)

    Optimization

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Design

    Constraints

    User Needs

    & Scenarios

    PerformanceEvaluation

    PerformanceEvaluation

    PerformanceEvaluation

    Design Development (per level)

  • Data Association Problems Occur at All Fusion Levels

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    Entity Features/Signals

    Featu

    res

    Measu

    rem

    en

    ts/

    Level 0Feature/SignalAssessment

    Scores

    Plans/COAs

    En

    titi

    es/

    Rela

    tio

    nsh

    ips

    Level 3Impact

    Assessment

    Scores

    Truth/Desired

    DF

    &R

    M

    Ou

    tpu

    tsLevel 4System

    Assessment

    Scores

    Entity TracksE

    nti

    ty

    Rep

    ort

    s/T

    racks 0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    Level 1Entity

    Assessment

    ScoresLevel 2

    SituationAssessment

    Entity Aggregations/Relationships

    En

    titi

    es/

    Rela

    tio

    nsh

    ips

    Scores

    (2-D AssignmentMatrix

    Examples)

  • Resource Management Has Dual Response Planning Problems at All Levels

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    Resource Signals

    Tasks/S

    ign

    als

    Level 0Resource

    SignalManagement

    Scores

    Objectives

    Reso

    urc

    es/

    Rela

    tio

    nsh

    ips

    Level 3Mission

    ObjectiveManagement

    Scores

    DF&RM Designs

    DF

    &R

    MF

    un

    cti

    on

    s

    Level 4System

    Management

    Scores

    Resource Responses/ModesTasks

    0.20 0.01 0.44 0.30 0.02 0.20

    0.02 0.16 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.15

    0.03 0.02 0.06 0.87 0.01 0.01

    0.07 0.19 0.03 0.17 0.31 0.23

    0.11 0.01 0.46 0.12 0.15 0.16

    0.67 0.02 0.01 0.20 0.09 0.01

    Level 1ResourceResponse

    Management

    Scores

    Level 2Resource

    RelationshipManagement

    Resource Aggregations/

    Relationships

    Reso

    urc

    es/

    Rela

    tio

    nsh

    ips

    Scores

    (2-D AssignmentMatrix

    Examples)

  • Data Association Is the Core of Data Fusion

    • DETECT AND RESOLVE

    DATA CONFLICTS

    • CONVERT DATA TO

    COMMON TIME AND

    COORDINATE FRAME

    • COMPENSATE FOR

    SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENT

    • NORMALIZE

    CONFIDENCE

    • ESTIMATE/PREDICT

    ENTITY STATES

    - KINEMATICS, ATTRIBUTES,

    ID, RELATIONAL STATES

    • ESTIMATE SENSOR/SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENTS

    • FEED FORWARD SOURCE/

    SENSOR STATUS

    • GENERATE FEASIBLE &

    CONFIRMED ASSOCIATION

    HYPOTHESES

    • SCORE HYPOTHESIZED

    DATA ASSOCIATIONS

    • SELECT, DELETE, OR

    FEEDBACK DATA

    ASSOCIATIONS

    USEROR NEXTFUSIONNODE

    STATEESTIMATION

    & PREDICTION

    DATA ASSOCIATION

    DATA FUSION NODE

    HYPOTHESISEVALUATION

    HYPOTHESISGENERATION

    HYPOTHESISSELECTION

    DATAALIGNMENT

    (CommonReferencing)

    PRIORDATA FUSION

    NODES &SOURCES

    RESOURCE MGT CONTROLSSOURCE SENSOR STATUS

  • Level 1 Entity Data Association Is a Labeled Set Covering Problem

    Hypothesis

    (Track) X2

    Sensor Reports yi(mean & covariance)

    Hypothesis

    (Track) X1y1

    y5

    y4

    y2

    y3

    Hypothesis

    (Track) X2

    Sensor Reports yi(mean & covariance)

    Hypothesis

    (Track) X1y1

    y5(poor resolution)

    y4

    y2

    y3

    Set Covering Set Partitioning

    State est. (Partitioning)

    State est. (Covering)

    y6Unassociated

    y6Unassociated

    State est.

  • Hypothesis Evaluation Is the Core of Data Association

    • DETECT AND RESOLVE

    DATA CONFLICTS

    • CONVERT DATA TO

    COMMON TIME AND

    COORDINATE FRAME

    • COMPENSATE FOR

    SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENT

    • NORMALIZE

    CONFIDENCE

    • ESTIMATE/PREDICT

    ENTITY STATES

    - KINEMATICS, ATTRIBUTES,

    ID, RELATIONAL STATES

    TRACK CONFIDENCES

    • ESTIMATE SENSOR/SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENTS

    • FEED FORWARD SOURCE/

    SENSOR STATUS

    • GENERATE FEASIBLE &

    CONFIRMED ASSOCIATION

    HYPOTHESES

    • SCORE HYPOTHESIZED

    DATA ASSOCIATIONS

    - KINEMATICS, ATTRIBUTES,

    ID, RELATIONAL STATES

    TRACK CONFIDENCES

    • SELECT, DELETE, OR

    FEEDBACK DATA

    ASSOCIATIONS

    USEROR NEXTFUSIONNODE

    STATEESTIMATION

    & PREDICTION

    DATA ASSOCIATION

    DATA FUSION NODE

    HYPOTHESISEVALUATION

    HYPOTHESISGENERATION

    HYPOTHESISSELECTION

    DATAALIGNMENT

    (CommonReferencing)

    PRIORDATA FUSION

    NODES &SOURCES

    RESOURCE MGT CONTROLSSOURCE SENSOR STATUS

  • Processing Load Is Balanced Within Each Fusion Node Component

    ( ) − LOGP REPORTSj | 0

    Prior Data Fusion

    Nodes &Sources

    DataPreparation(Common

    Referencing)

    HypothesisGeneration

    HypothesisEvaluation

    HypothesisSelection

    State

    Estimation&

    Prediction

    Data Correlation

    Data Fusion Tree Node

    User or

    Next FusionNode

    RAW SENSOR DATA FEASIBLE HYPOTHESIS ASSOCIATION SCORING SEARCH ALGORITHMS

    REPORT ASSOCIATION

    MATRIX

    t = 1 t = 2

    t = 3 t = 4

    12 Sensor

    Reports

    Data

    Point

    #1

    Feasible

    Track #6

    10

    1

    2

    3

    4

    8

    11

    5

    12

    97

    6

    10

    DETERMINISTIC DATA ASSOCIATION THEN TARGET STATE ESTIMATION

    MAX P(H|REPORTS) = MAX[P(REPORTS|H)P(H) THEN MAX P( H)

    H H

    TARGET STATE ESTIMATION WITH PROBABILISTIC DATA ASSOCIATION

    MAX P(H|REPORTS) = MAX[ P(REPORTS|H)P(H, )P(H|)P()

    H

    JOINT ASSOCIATION DECISION AND TARGET STATE ESTIMATION

    MAX P(H, |REPORTS) = MAX[MAX P( |REPORTS,H)P(H) P(H|REPORTS)

    H,

    H

    ~

    Chi-Square Tail Test:

    Fix P(d2|H1) = then Test for Rejection of H1: Mean of (X-Y) = 0

    -2 ln ( )

    X s dsnC

    2

    ( )

    >

    <

    d1

    d2

    where C = (X-Y) V (X-Y)T -1

    Area Tail =

    PXj jj J

    MINIMIZE

    X

    WHERE A Xij jj J

    1

    Pj =

    Pierce Column - Search (BinaryTree)

    X4

    X1 = 1

    X2 = 1

    X3 = 1

    X1 = 0

    X2 = 0

    X3 = 0

    X2 = 1

    X2 = 0

    X3 = 0

    Hypothesis#1

    Hypothesis#2

    ActualPositions

    Prior Data Fusion

    Nodes &Sources

    DataPreparation(Common

    Referencing)

    HypothesisGeneration

    HypothesisEvaluation

    HypothesisSelection

    State

    Estimation&

    Prediction

    Data Correlation

    Data Fusion Tree Node

    User or

    Next FusionNode

    RAW SENSOR DATA FEASIBLE HYPOTHESIS ASSOCIATION SCORING SEARCH ALGORITHMS

    REPORT ASSOCIATION

    MATRIX

    t = 1 t = 2

    t = 3 t = 4

    12 Sensor

    Reports

    Data

    Point

    #1

    Feasible

    Track #6

    10

    1

    2

    3

    4

    8

    11

    5

    12

    97

    6

    10

    DETERMINISTIC DATA ASSOCIATION THEN TARGET STATE ESTIMATION

    MAX P(H|REPORTS) = MAX[P(REPORTS|H)P(H) THEN MAX P( H)

    H H

    TARGET STATE ESTIMATION WITH PROBABILISTIC DATA ASSOCIATION

    MAX P(H|REPORTS) = MAX[ P(REPORTS|H)P(H, )P(H|)P()

    H

    JOINT ASSOCIATION DECISION AND TARGET STATE ESTIMATION

    MAX P(H, |REPORTS) = MAX[MAX P( |REPORTS,H)P(H) P(H|REPORTS)

    H,

    H

    ~

    Chi-Square Tail Test:

    Fix P(d2|H1) = then Test for Rejection of H1: Mean of (X-Y) = 0

    -2 ln ( )

    X s dsnC

    2

    ( )

    >

    <

    d1

    d2

    where C = (X-Y) V (X-Y)T -1

    Area Tail =

    PXj jj J

    MINIMIZE

    X

    WHERE A Xij jj J

    1

    Pj =

    Pierce Column - Search (BinaryTree)

    X4

    X1 = 1

    X2 = 1

    X3 = 1

    X1 = 0

    X2 = 0

    X3 = 0

    X2 = 1

    X2 = 0

    X3 = 0

    Hypothesis#1

    Hypothesis#2

    ActualPositions

  • Applicability of Alternative Scoring Schemes (1 of 2)

    • Probabilistic: Preferred if statistics known

    > Chi-Square Distance

    – Doesn’t require prior densities

    – Useful for comparing multi-dimensional Gaussian data

    – However, no natural way to incorporate attribute and a priori data

    > Max Likelihood

    – Doesn’t require unconditional prior densities, p(x)

    – Does require conditional priors, p(Z|x)

    > Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori (MAP)

    – Naturally combines kinematics, attribute, and a priori data

    – Provides natural track association confidence measure

    – However, requires prior probability (e.g. kinematics and class) densities; difficult to specify

  • Applicability of Alternative Scoring Schemes (2 of 2)

    • Non-Probabilistic: Useful if high uncertainty in the uncertainty

    > Evidential (Dempster-Shafer)

    – Non-statistical: User specifies evidence “mass” values (support and plausibility numbers)

    – Essentially 2-point calculus (uniform uncertainty-in-the-uncertainty with simple knowledge combination rules)

    > Fuzzy Sets

    – User specifies membership functions to represent the uncertainty-in-the-uncertainty

    – User specifies fuzzy knowledge combination rules (e.g., sum, prod, max/min) which are much easier compute than second-order Bayesian

    – More complex to develop, maintain, and extend

    > Confidence Factors and Other ad hoc Methods

    – Explicit derivation of logical relationships

    – Generally ad hoc weightings to relate significance of factors

    – Can include information theoretic and utility weightings

  • • Chi-square (Mahalanobis) Scoring:

    • ItV-1I=[R1-T2]2/[σR

    2+σT22] = 22/[1+1]=2

    • ItV-1I=[R1-T3]2/[σR

    2+σT32]=42/[1+16]=16/17

    • R associated to 1 sigma away but further distance away less accurate T3

    • Max. a Posteriori (Bayesian):

    • [2πV]-.5 e(-.5ItV-1I) =[6.28*2]-.5

    e(-.5[R1-T2]2/[σR

    2+σT22]) ~ .28 e-1 ~ .10

    • [2πV]-.5 e(-.5ItV-1I) =[6.28*17]-.5 e(-.5[R1-T3]

    2/[σR2+σT3

    2]) ~ .097 e-.47 ~ .060

    • R is associated to the closer more accurate T2

    MAP Scoring Correctly Balances Less Accurate Further Away Tracks

    R1 =0 T2=2 T3=4

    T3 Selected

    R1 =0 T2=2 T3=4

    2σ2~1σ2

    .10 .06

    T2 SelectedInput Report

  • Alternative MAP Association Scoring

    •Deterministic Data Association then target estimation

    MAX P H REPORTS MAX P REPORTS H P H THEN MAX P HH H

    ( | ) [ ( | ) ( ) ( | )^

    = qq

    MAX P REPORTS MAX P REPORTS H P H P

    H

    ( | ) ( | , ) ( | ) ( )q q q qq q

    =

    MAX P H REPORTS MAX MAX P REPORTS H P H REPORTS

    H H

    ( , | ) ( | , ) ( | )

    ,

    q q

    q q

    =

    H is the association hypothesis and Theta is the track state.

    Target state estimation with probabilistic data association

    Joint association decision and target state estimation

  • • The total scene hypothesis score is the product of the individual hypothesis

    scores for the 5 possible hypothesis types: • association hypotheses

    • pop-up (i.e., track initiation) hypotheses

    • input false alarm (FA) hypotheses

    • track propagation (missed coverage) hypotheses

    • drop track (false track) hypotheses

    • Pd and Pfa use track association confidences and incorporate the entity birth and

    death statistics

    • Track confidence estimates are needed to differentiate the 5 hypotheses types

    • When the class tree uncertainty-in-the-uncertainty is high it is not used in scoring

    Max A Posteriori (MAP) Hypothesis Scoring

  • Source Noncommensurate Attributes Scored Using Entity Class Tree

    • Sources 1 & 2 have noncommensurate attributes if for an exhaustive set of

    disjoint of entity classes, K,

    P(Z(S1) | Z(S2), Class K, Y(Si ), H) = P(Z(S1) | Class K, Y(S1 ), H)

    where,

    • Z(Si) is the set of measured attributes (i.e., all non kinematics measurements) from each

    source i,

    • H is the association hypothesis between sources S1 & S2,

    • Y(Si) are the measured kinematics from the two sources

    • All source attributes not conditionally independent are treated as separately

    commensurate parameters

    • For commensurate sources, feature differences are scored

  • Sample Hierarchical Disjoint Entity Class Taxonomy

    T72

    (A,M)

    M60

    (A,M)BMP

    (A,M)

    Helicopter (M)- Manually classified: 1.0

    Unknown (A,M)- includes personnel

    -includes helicopters if

    automatically detected

    FV432

    (A,M)

    Spartan

    (A,M)

    HMMWV

    (A,M)

    M1A2

    (A,M)

    Challenger

    (M)Warrior

    (M)

    Range Rover

    (M)

    BMP: 50.4

    T72: 5.6

    M60: 1.6

    M1: 0

    FV432: 10.4

    Spartan: 10.4

    HMMWV: 1.6

    Unknown: 20

    T72: 36

    M60: 1.6

    M1: 1.6

    BMP: 20

    FV432: 10.4

    Spartan: 10.4

    HMMWV: 0

    Unknown: 20

    M60: 53.6

    T72: 0

    M1: 5.6

    BMP: 0

    FV432: 10.4

    Spartan: 10.4

    HMMWV: 0

    Unknown:20

    M1: 53.6

    T72: 1.6

    M60: 2.4

    BMP: 0

    FV432: 11.2

    Spartan: 11.2

    HMMWV: 0

    Unknown: 20

    FV432: 41.6

    T72: 6.4

    M60: 6.4

    M1: 6.4

    BMP: 6.4

    Spartan: 6.4

    HMMWV: 6.4

    Unknown: 20

    Spartan: 41.6

    T72: 6.4

    M60: 6.4

    M1: 6.4

    BMP: 6.4

    FV432: 6.4

    HMMWV: 6.4

    Unknown: 20

    HMMWV:40

    T72: 1.6

    M60: 4.8

    M1: 0

    BMP: 16

    FV432: 8.8

    Spartan: 8.8

    Unknown: 20

    Note: Values based on

    simulation test results

    except for FV432, Spartan,

    and Unknown which were

    added in based on

    engineering judgment.

    Tracked Vehicle (A)

    Wheeled Vehicle (A)

    Unclassified (A)-No ATR

    Entity Type Declarations (Statistics per Truth Type)

    T72

    (A,M)

    M60

    (A,M)BMP

    (A,M)

    Helicopter (M)- Manually classified: 1.0

    Unknown (A,M)- includes personnel

    -includes helicopters if

    automatically detected

    FV432

    (A,M)

    Spartan

    (A,M)

    HMMWV

    (A,M)

    M1A2

    (A,M)

    Challenger

    (M)Warrior

    (M)

    Range Rover

    (M)

    BMP: 50.4

    T72: 5.6

    M60: 1.6

    M1: 0

    FV432: 10.4

    Spartan: 10.4

    HMMWV: 1.6

    Unknown: 20

    T72: 36

    M60: 1.6

    M1: 1.6

    BMP: 20

    FV432: 10.4

    Spartan: 10.4

    HMMWV: 0

    Unknown: 20

    M60: 53.6

    T72: 0

    M1: 5.6

    BMP: 0

    FV432: 10.4

    Spartan: 10.4

    HMMWV: 0

    Unknown:20

    M1: 53.6

    T72: 1.6

    M60: 2.4

    BMP: 0

    FV432: 11.2

    Spartan: 11.2

    HMMWV: 0

    Unknown: 20

    FV432: 41.6

    T72: 6.4

    M60: 6.4

    M1: 6.4

    BMP: 6.4

    Spartan: 6.4

    HMMWV: 6.4

    Unknown: 20

    Spartan: 41.6

    T72: 6.4

    M60: 6.4

    M1: 6.4

    BMP: 6.4

    FV432: 6.4

    HMMWV: 6.4

    Unknown: 20

    HMMWV:40

    T72: 1.6

    M60: 4.8

    M1: 0

    BMP: 16

    FV432: 8.8

    Spartan: 8.8

    Unknown: 20

    Note: Values based on

    simulation test results

    except for FV432, Spartan,

    and Unknown which were

    added in based on

    engineering judgment.

    Tracked Vehicle (A)

    Wheeled Vehicle (A)

    Unclassified (A)-No ATR

    Entity Type Declarations (Statistics per Truth Type)

    A: automated

    M: manual

  • Max a Posteriori Association Hypothesis Scoring

    The total scene hypothesis score is the product of scores for 5 types of S to T association

    hypotheses of kinematics, Y, attributes, Z, and entity class confidences, K:

    1. Association Hypotheses

    P(Y(S)|Y(T),H) P(Z(S), Z(T)|Y(S), Y(T), H) P(H) = {|V|-1/2 } exp[-1/2{IT V-1 I }]

    • {K[P(K|Z(T),Y(T), H) P(K|Z(S),Y(S), H)/P(K|Y(T),Y(S), H)]} • [1-PFA (S)] [1- PFA(T)] PD (S) PD (T)

    2. Pop-up (i.e., Track Initiation) Hypotheses

    P(Y(S)|Y(T),H) P(Z(S), Z(T)|Y(S), Y(T), H) P(H) = {E(|V|-1/2 )} exp[-1/2{}] • [1-PFA (S)] [1- PD(T)] PD (S)

    3. False Alarm (FA) Hypotheses

    P(Y(S)|Y(T),H) P(Z(S), Z(T)|Y(S), Y(T), H) P(H) = { E(|V|-1/2 )} exp[-1/2{}] • PFA (S) PD (S)

    4. Propagation Hypotheses

    P(Y(S)|Y(T),H) P(Z(S), Z(T)|Y(S), Y(T), H) P(H) = [1-PFA (T)] [1- PD(S)] PD (T) 5. Track Drop Hypotheses

    P(Y(S)|Y(T),H) P(Z(S), Z(T)|Y(S), Y(T), H) P(H) = PFA (T) PD (T)

  • Scoring Nomenclature

    • Y(S) are the sensor report Gaussian kinematics with covariance R

    • Y(T) are the track Gaussian kinematics with covariance P +k ,

    • H is one of 5 association hypothesis types, E is expectation fcn

    • |V| is determinant of innovations covariance, V = H [P +k] HT + R,

    • is the mean of the chi-square statistic (i.e., {IT V-1 I })

    • I is the innovations vector, I = Y(S) - H Y(T),

    • P(K) are the confidences of the disjoint entity class tree,

    • Z(T) [Z(S)] are the parameters/attributes from the track [report],

    • PD(S) [PD(T)] is the sensor [track file] probability of detection

    • PFA (S) [PFA (T)] is the sensor [track file] probability of false alarm,

  • Approximate Class Confidence Generation from Declarations

    • P(K|D) = P(D|K) P(K) / ΣT(P(Truth T) P(D |Truth T) where

    • P(K|D) is the probability of the entity being of class K given the specified sensor declaration D that is computed

    for all the possible disjoint classes. These terms are inserted for the n P(K|Z(S),Y(S), H) sensor report disjoint

    classification type confidences.

    • P(K) is the a priori probability of the entity being of class K

    • P(D|K) is the probability that the declaration D is made given the entity is of class K from the declaration

    confusion matrix

    • P(D |Truth T) is the probability of the specified declaration D given the entity is of truth type T from the

    declaration confusion matrix where T varies over the possible scenario truths

    • P(Truth T) is the a priori probability of the truth in the scenario being of type T where T varies over the possible

    scenario truths

  • MAP Scoring Uses Kinematics, ID, Track Confidence & Pedigree Information

    • Uses the separation point on the PDF as the kinematics score, so high uncertainty tracks do not overly attract reports as w/chi-square scoring

    • Bayesian scoring and update of the classification uncertainties with pedigree of noncommensurates used for class error correlation compensation or separate noncommensurate class vectors

    • Track confidence estimation provides rigorous basis for the scoring of the four non-association hypotheses

    • Misalignment bias states & uncertainties added for scoring and to remove relative misalignments

  • Track Confidence Is Updated Using Source Parameters & Association Results

    • DETECT AND

    RESOLVE DATA

    CONFLICTS

    • CONVERT TRACK

    CONFIDENCE & DATA

    TO COMMON TIME

    AND COORDINATE

    FRAME

    • COMPENSATE FOR

    SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENT

    • ESTIMATE/PREDICT

    ENTITY STATES

    - KINEMATICS, ATTRIBUTES,

    ID, RELATIONAL STATES

    • ESTIMATE SENSOR/SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENTS

    • ESTIMATE TRACK CONFIDENCES

    • FEED FORWARD SOURCE/

    SENSOR STATUS

    • GENERATE FEASIBLE &

    CONFIRMED ASSOCIATION

    HYPOTHESES

    • SCORE HYPOTHESIZED

    DATA ASSOCIATIONS USING

    TRACK CONFIDENCE

    • SELECT, DELETE, OR

    FEEDBACK DATA

    ASSOCIATIONS

    USEROR NEXTFUSIONNODE

    STATEESTIMATION

    & PREDICTION

    DATA ASSOCIATION

    DATA FUSION NODE

    HYPOTHESISEVALUATION

    HYPOTHESISGENERATION

    HYPOTHESISSELECTION

    DATAALIGNMENT

    (CommonReferencing)

    PRIORDATA FUSION

    NODES &SOURCES

    RESOURCE MGT CONTROLSSOURCE SENSOR STATUS

  • Track Confidences Needed for MAP: Bayesian Equations for COP Track Confidence Have Been Derived

    • Propagation of Probability for Entity Track in Consistent Operational

    Picture (COP) & False Track

    • Track Confidence Contribution to Association Hypothesis Scoring

    • Update of Probability of Entity Track in COP and False Track

    Confidences With Track Propagations and Pop Ups

    • Update of COP Probability of False Track for Associated Tracks,

    Propagated Tracks, & Pop Ups

  • Hyp Eval Problem to Solution Space Mapping

    UnifiedNeuralLogic/SymbolicPossibi-listicProbabilisticSOLUTION SPACE

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    RS

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    Rec

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    C-B

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    US

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    FF

    N

    N

    N

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    AdH

    YYY• Result explanation

    Y

    Y

    Y

    Y

    N

    Y

    N

    Y

    Y

    N

    Chi

    YYYYY• Numerical scores

    YYY• Discrete score bins

    NNNNNNYYN• Error PDF known

    Y• Differing conditionals

    • Differing dimensions

    Y• Partial data

    YYY• Non-parametric data

    YN• A priori sensor data

    YY• Parameter attributes

    YY• Kinematics

    YY• Identity/attributes

    YYNYyNN• High processing Avail

    • Robustness to error

    YYYYYYYYYY• Self-coded/trained

    • Training set required

    YY• User adaptability

    NNNYYYNYY• Score accuracy

    NN• Compute efficiency

    NNNNNNNYYY• Low cost/complexity

    PERFORM MEAS

    Y• Confidence function

    Y• Multi scores per

    • Yes/no, pass-through

    SCORE OUTPUT

    • Unknown structure

    YY• High uncertainty

    Y• Spatio-temporal

    YYYY• Linguistic data

    INPUT DATA

    ESSDS/FFuzDSInfCEANPBayLklPROBLEM SPACE

    KEY

    AdH Ad Hoc

    Lkl Likelihood

    Bay Bayesian

    NP Non-parametric

    Chi Chi-Squared

    CEA Conditioned Event

    Algebra

    Inf Information Theoretic

    DS Dempster-Shafer

    Fuz Fuzzy Logic

    S/F Scripts/ Frames

    SD Semantic Distance

    ES Expert Systems

    C-B Case-Based Reasoning

    US Unsupervised Learning

    FF Feed-Forward

    Rec Recurrent Supervised

    Learning

    RS Random Set

  • Alternative DF&RM Techniques Are Synergistic

    Methods Approach EventRepresentation

    ProblemDomain

    SolutionDevelopment

    Costs/Risks Performance Verification Speed

    Ad Hoc analyst

    driven

    table look-up predefined

    fixed

    features

    rule-of-thumb simple not

    upgradable

    approximate;

    brittle

    all cases

    tested

    fast table look-up

    Probabilistic algorithm

    driven

    pointwise

    probability

    rigorously

    defined

    features

    analyst solves

    rigorously

    upgradable

    SW

    precise;

    extendable

    alternative path

    tests

    via path

    parallelization

    Possibilistic algorithm

    driven

    uncertainty-in-

    the-uncertainty

    feature

    uncertainties

    known

    analyst solves

    approximation

    upgradable;

    more

    complex

    Broader app’s;

    extendable

    alternative path

    tests

    via path

    parallelization

    Logic/

    Symbolic

    rule driven setwise degree

    of membership

    expert

    described

    features

    expert defines

    rules

    rule

    compatibility/

    scalability

    gets close;

    user adaptable

    rules explanation via rule

    parallelization

    Neural

    Networks

    self-

    organized

    firing level

    patterns

    unknown

    feature

    relationships

    data driven;

    user objectives

    training

    breadth; HW

    scalability

    approximate;

    non-linear

    interpolation

    numerous training

    cases

    massively parallel

    chips

    Unified algorithm

    & rule

    driven

    normalized

    representation

    combination

    s of the

    above

    analyst solves

    hybrid

    most

    complex

    most breadth alternative path

    tests

    via approximation

  • Decision Flow for Technique Selection (Hypothesis Evaluation Example)

    SCRIPTS/FRAMES

    SYSTEM RULES

    HYBRIDS

    (5)

    YES CASE-BASED REASONINGIS ON-LINE LEARNING

    FROM USER NEEDED?

    NO

    Logical, Symbolic and ad hoc

    Hypothesis Evaluation Technique SelectionPossibilistic, Non-Parametric and other RigorousHypothesis Evaluation Technique Selection

    (3)

    CONDITIONAL EVENT ALGEBRAYES

    IS SCORINGOF INFORMATION

    CONDITIONED UPONMULTIPLE EVENTS

    YES

    YES

    EVIDENTIAL

    FUZZYSET THEORY

    YES

    IS UNIFORMDISTRIBUTIONSUFFICIENT?

    YES

    NO

    NO

    IS A CONSISTENT MATHEMATICAL BASIS FOR SCORING NEEDED?

    IS HIGH THROUGHPUT PER WATT SELF-CODING PATTERN RECOGNITION NEEDED?

    IS JOINT PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION SUFFICIENTLY KNOWN?

    NO

    POSSIBLISTIC & NON-PARAMETRIC

    PROBABILISTIC

    LOGIC/SYMBOLIC & AD HOC

    NEURAL NETWORKS

    YES

    YES

    (2)

    (3)

    (4)

    (5)

    (2)

    [92]

    HE Technique SelectionDecision Flow (4 of 5)[4,17,19]

    Neural NetworkHypothesis Evaluation Technique Selection

    UNSUPERVISED CLUSTERING NN

    NO

    YES

    ARE SUFFICIENT SCORING TRAININGSETS AVAILABLE? RECURRENT SUPERVISED NNYES

    IS SPATIO-TEMPORALPATTERN RECOGNITION

    NEEDED?

    FEED-FORWARD SUPERVISED NNNO

    (4)

  • Solution Selection Depends upon Problem Difficulty

    Pe

    rfo

    rma

    nce

    (lo

    g s

    cale

    )

    Problem Difficulty (log scale)

    Intelligent

    Static

    Data-Driven

    Systems

    Expert

    Model-Driven

    Systems

    Known Modeled

    Behavior

    Intelligent

    Adaptive

    Goal-Driven

    Systems

    Consistent Historically

    -Based Behavior

    Inconsistent [Not Based

    Upon Historical] Behavior

  • Hypothesis Selection Determines How Alternative Association World Views to Be Maintained

    • DETECT AND

    RESOLVE DATA

    CONFLICTS

    • CONVERT TRACK

    CONFIDENCE & DATA

    TO COMMON TIME

    AND COORDINATE

    FRAME

    • COMPENSATE FOR

    SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENT

    • ESTIMATE/PREDICT

    ENTITY STATES

    - KINEMATICS, ATTRIBUTES,

    ID, RELATIONAL STATES

    • ESTIMATE SENSOR/SOURCE

    MISALIGNMENTS

    • ESTIMATE TRACK CONFIDENCES

    • FEED FORWARD SOURCE/

    SENSOR STATUS

    • GENERATE FEASIBLE &

    CONFIRMED ASSOCIATION

    HYPOTHESES

    • SCORE HYPOTHESIZED

    DATA ASSOCIATIONS USING

    TRACK CONFIDENCE

    • SELECT, DELETE, OR

    FEEDBACK DATA

    ASSOCIATIONS

    USEROR NEXTFUSIONNODE

    STATEESTIMATION

    & PREDICTION

    DATA ASSOCIATION

    DATA FUSION NODE

    HYPOTHESISEVALUATION

    HYPOTHESISGENERATION

    HYPOTHESISSELECTION

    DATAALIGNMENT

    (CommonReferencing)

    PRIORDATA FUSION

    NODES &SOURCES

    RESOURCE MGT CONTROLSSOURCE SENSOR STATUS

  • Hypothesis Selection Problem

    • Need to Search through Association Matrix to find best Global Hypothesis

    • Association Matrix:

    • Types of Global Hypotheses• Set Partitioning: no two tracks (local hypotheses) share a report

    • Set Covering: There may be shared reports

    • N-D Approaches: Search All Scans by All Sources

    • Globally Optimal Solution

    • Computationally Demanding (NP-Hard: Exponential Run-Time)

    • 2-D Approaches: Search only Current Scan

    • Locally Optimal Solution

    • Polynomial Run-Time

    Reports

    Tra

    cks

    Scores

    Set Partitioning

    Set Covering

    TYPES OF GLOBAL HYPOTHESIS

  • • “No Observation” columns added to denote the better hypothesis, H2, of false or propagated tracks for unassociated tracks

    • “No Association” rows added to denote the better hypothesis, H1, of false alarm or initiated tracks for unassociated reports

    • Zero’s in lower right box discourage selection of non-association hypotheses

    00inf-lnP(H1)inf

    00infinf-lnP(H1)

    00-lnP(H1)infinf

    -lnP(H2)inf-ln[P(R3,T2|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R2,T2|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R1,T2|

    H)P(H)]

    inf-lnP(H2)-ln[P(R3,T1|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R2,T1|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R1,T1|

    H)P(H)]

    00inf-lnP(H1)inf

    00infinf-lnP(H1)

    00-lnP(H1)infinf

    -lnP(H2)inf-ln[P(R3,T2|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R2,T2|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R1,T2|

    H)P(H)]

    inf-lnP(H2)-ln[P(R3,T1|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R2,T1|

    H)P(H)]

    -ln[P(R1,T1|

    H)P(H)]

    No Observation

    Track

    Initiation

    or FA

    Current Reports

    Current

    Tracks

    Conversion of Association Matrix for 2-D Assignment Problem

  • Entity Class Tree Confidence Update With Noncommensurate Sources

    P(class C| all Si , H) = {i [{P(C|Si,H)/P(C|Y(Si all i), H)} P(C| Y(Si for all i), H)] } / K {i [{P(K|Si,H)/P(K| Y(Si all i), H)}

    P(K| Y(Si for all i), H)]}

    if P(C|H)0 [= 0 if P(C|H)=0]

    • C is the element of the fused entity class tree being updated,

    • Si for each source i is its measured data [both kinematic and attribute]

    • P(C|Y(Si), H) is the probability of an entity of type C given only kinematics data from source i & H, the

    association hypothesis,

    • K is the index of type disjoint tree classes [summed over for normalization],

    • P(C|Si,H) are the entity class tree confidences based upon all measurements from each source i

  • Sample Interlaced Network of DF&RM Dual Level Interactions

    Source

    Fusion

    Level 0:

    Feature

    Assessment

    Sensor

    Sensor

    Sensors

    Source

    Fusion

    Level 1:

    Entity

    Assessment

    Fusion

    Level 2:

    Situation

    Assessment

    Fusion

    Level 3:

    Impact

    Assessment

    Management

    Level 0:

    Resource

    Signal

    Management

    Management

    Level 1:

    Resource

    Response

    Management

    Weapons

    Mission

    Management

    Level 3:

    Mission

    Objective

    Management

    Management

    Level 2:

    Resource

    Relationship

    ManagementComm

    Data Fusion Node Network

    Resource Management Node Network

    Resources

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    Sources

    Fusion

    Level 4:

    System s

    Assessment

    Management

    Level 4:

    System

    Management

    DF&RM

    Reactive

    Loop

    User

    I/O(at all

    levels

    as

    needed)