Post on 22-Apr-2015
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1. Smoothed v. Real Data [6 month step]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: 6 month step
2. Smoothed v. Real Data [3 month step]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: 3 month step
3. Smoothed v. Real Data [2 month step]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: 2 month step
4. Smoothed v. Real Data [1 month step]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: 1 month step
5. Smoothed v. Real Data [monthly increase]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: monthly increase
6. Smoothed v. Real Data [monthly decrease]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: monthly decrease
7. Smoothed v. Real Data [decreasing divergence]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: decreasing divergence
8. Smoothed v. Real Data [increasing divergence]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: increasing divergence
9. Smoothed v. Real Data [high and low]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: high and low
10. Smoothed v. Real Data [highs and lows]
Smoothed Data
Real Data: highs and lows
Smoothed Data or Real Data
Highs and lowsHigh and low
DecreasingIncreasing Increasing convergence
Decreasing convergence
Three month step Six month stepTwo month step
Smoothed Data – 12 month rolling average
Smoothed Data
Example Real Data
Notes: Real data for 12 months, previous 12 months is exactly the same, to create 12 month rolling average (mean).
This smoothed data is derived from any of these underlying
real data examples.
Smoothed Data and
Corresponding Real Data
Series 0:FlatJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Real data 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 1: 6 month step
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 50 50 50 50 50 150 150 150 150 150 150 50 50 50 50 50 50 150 150 150 150 150 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 2: 3 month step
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 50 50 150 150 150 50 50 50 150 150 150 50 50 50 150 150 150 50 50 50 150 150 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 3: 2 month step
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 4: 1 month step
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 5: monthly increse
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 0 20 40 60 80 100 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 100 120 140 160 180 200Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 6: monthly decrease
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 200 180 160 140 120 100 100 80 60 40 20 0 200 180 160 140 120 100 100 80 60 40 20 0Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 7: descreasing divergence
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 160 100 40 100 140 100 60 100 120 100 80 100 160 100 40 100 140 100 60 100 120 100 80 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 8: increasing divergence
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 100 120 80 100 140 100 60 100 160 100 40 100 100 120 80 100 140 100 60 100 160 100 40 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 9: High and low
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 100 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 10: Highs and lows
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 100 100 200 100 150 100 100 50 100 0 100 100 100 100 200 100 150 100 100 50 100 0 100 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100