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Defence Research andDevelopment Canada

Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada

Training Pipeline Modelling Using the Production Management Tool

20 March 2009

Prepared by: Ms. Michelle StraverPresented by: Mr. Paul Bender

Director General Military Personnel Research & Analysis

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Outline

• introduction

• case study

– modelling process

– sample results

• future work

What is the Production Management Tool (PMT)?

• simulation tool that can be used for:

– viewing and analyzing the current and future state of a training pipeline

– identifying existing or arising scheduling problems (i.e. bottlenecks, empty seats, etc.)

• conducting “what if?” testing by changing pipeline parameters (e.g. course capacities, number or timing of serials, streaming, intake, etc.)

What is the Production Management Tool (PMT)?

• three major components:

– Arena model

• event-driven simulation model

• generic (can be used for any CF occupation)

– database

• contains the information required by the simulation (basic scenario parameters, information on course flow, entry plans and courses, course serials, and personnel)

• after running, contains text file with output results

• includes extensive set of queries for analyzing results

– Graphical User Interface (GUI)

• used for entering data, generating charts and reports

Top-Level View of Arena Model

ANAV Test Case

• Step 1: Gather Information

• Step 2: Generate Credit Matrix

• Step 3: Clean Data

• Step 4: Set Up Scenario in GUI and Run

• Step 5: Analyze Data

Step 1: Gather Information (with SME support)

• develop training pipeline

– establish course flow from recruitment to graduation for each possible entry plan

• obtain current pipeline status

– past, current, and planned course schedules

– course history for each student

– most data can be imported from the Military Individual Training & Education (MITE) database extract

• determine whether course failure results in re-course or transfer out of occupation

• determine overall attrition rate

ANAV Training PipelineCFR

DEOCEOTP

UTPNCM

COR (pilot)

OTBOTP

Sea Surv

BANCCP-140 N/C

CC-130 Nav

CH-124 TCO

CP-140 ASO

ROTP RMC

(if req’d)

COR (unrelated)

ROTP CIV

Civ Univ

Step 2: Generate Credit Matrix

• completing a course gives a specified number of credits (0 to 1) toward eligibility for other courses

• student is eligible for a course when he/she earns a total of 1.0 credits for that course

• alternatively, students can be streamed into one of a set of courses according to specified proportions

Step 3: Clean Data

• MITE Extract contains several data tables

– OP_COURSE_TBL

• general high-level details for each course

– OP_CRSE_SESSN_TBL

• details for every course serial, e.g. start/end dates, min/max capacity

– OP_TRAINING

• course/serial registration and attendance results for each student

– POPULATION

• each student’s Service Number, name, rank, hire date, occupation, entry plan

Data Cleaning Issues – Examples

• adjust serial capacity (OP_CRSE_SESSN_TBL)

– change min capacity to 1 for courses that are shared with other occupations

• update course codes and serials (OP_TRAINING)

– course will not be recognized if individual took it under earlier code

• validate/update entry plans (POPULATION)

– often unknown or named differently in MITE Extract; OT/COR is never indicated

– check each individual’s course history to infer entry plan and update if required

Step 4-1: Enter Scenario Information

Step 4-2: Enter Course Information

Step 4-3: Import or Enter Serial Data

Step 4-4: Import or Enter Population Data

Step 4-5: Run Scenario

Step 5: Analyze Data

• many types of charts and reports can be produced easily by the user at the course, serial, or person level

• time period for analysis can be selected by user so that different time segments of the simulation can be compared

• the charts shown in the following slides represent a five year period beginning on the simulation start date (14 Feb 2008)

6 6 6 6

4 4 4 4

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

Fiscal Year

CH-124 TCO CP-140 N/C CP-140 ASO CC-130 Nav

Graduates by Fiscal Year

Demand and Attendance Ratios Relative to Capacity

Demand Attendace Capacity

Demand and Attendance for the BANC

Serial Date

Demand Attendance Min Cap Max Cap

Person Gantt Chart

DEO (Entry Plan)

SEA SURV

CC-130 Nav

Wait Attend Sim. Wait Sim. Attend

Future Work

• case study for multiple related occupations

– e.g. ANAV and pilots

• probability-based recourse/transfer on fail

• add flexibility to attrition parameter

• improve handling of entry plans

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