Demographic implications of changes to state pension age

Ms Baljit BainsDemography & Policy Analysis Manager, Intelligence

GREATERLONDONAUTHORITY

Employment and Population in London - New history, new futures

15th December 2011

What I will cover…

Outline changes to state pension age (SPA)

Analysis of trends in employment rates for men and women.

Some future scenarios…

Link these back to population projections to give a sense of the number of working people

Proposed changes to SPA

SPA rising to 65 for women by November 2018

SPA rising to 66 for men and women by October 2020

SPA rising to 67 for men and women by April 2028

Employment rates, men and women

Employment rates, men and women

1971

Employment rates, men and women

1981

Employment rates, men and women

1991

Employment rates, men and women

2001

Employment rates, men and women

2010

Differences between men and women

Difference between rates, 2001 to 2010

Student employment & activity 1991 to 2010

Student employment by ethnicity 2001

Employment rates for men by ethnicity

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

All groups

White

Black Caribbean

Black African

Other Black

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Other Asian

Other groups

Per cent2010 2001 1991

Employment rates for women by ethnicity

Difference between rates for men and women by ethnicity

Labour market engagement

Ability – Illness– Educations/Qualifications/Skills– Availability of appropriate work

Necessity– Personal financial circumstances– Pension provision: private/public/state pension

Choice– DRA abolished 6th April 2011– Women staying in work longer whilst partner is still working

Future Scenarios

Current employment rates remain in the future

Employment rates of those with lowest rates increase– Ethnic minorities

– Women with dependent children

– Older men

– Older women

But by how much………….

ER differences between 2001 and 2010

Scenarios

On the basis of previous trends and the push effect of increased SPA:

– Employment rates between older men and women will further converge

– Men’s employment rates at older ages will increase.

Employment rates for females over 60 converged to men’s rate

Effect of half and total convergence on numbers employed

Uplift to female employment rates at ages 45 to 59

Increased male employment rates at ages 45+

Any questions?

Email: Baljit.Bains@london.gov.uk

Tel: 020 7983 4613