Did Social Data Predict The Outcome of the Scottish Independence Vote? Measure Fest October 2014

Post on 23-Jun-2015

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On 8th October 2014, I spoke at Measure Fest in London on whether social data predicted the outcome of the Scottish independence vote. My argument was that whilst the yes campaign made the most noise, the demographic and engagement data from Facebook and Twitter actually showed a much more balanced picture. With the younger age groups over indexing in liking the better together campaign, and a clear gender inbalance in the yes campaign - it is clear when you look at a deeper level than just interactions that the yes campaign had some serious issues in terms of winning an outright majority. I then discussed how you can use data in this way to create personas for your marketing campaigns and discussed how the campaigns were fairly static with their content and could have performed better by looking at data in this way.

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@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

10m Interactions 5.4m tweets using #indyref

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

Disclaimer

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

The Result

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2,001,926

1,617,989 YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

The Data

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

Audience

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Age Group

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

% o

f u

sers

by

age

gro

up

Better Together Yes Scotland All Scottish Facebook

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Gender

50% 60%

50% 40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Better Together Yes Campaign

Male Female

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Education

22%

72%

6%

22%

72%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

High School College Grad School

Better Together Yes Scotland

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Relationship Status

28% 24%

7%

41%

32%

26%

8%

34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Single In Relationship Engaged Married

Better Together Yes Scotland

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

Engagement

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Twitter Mentions

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

#voteyes #bettertogether #nothanks #yesscotland

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Facebook Interactions

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Better Together Yes Scotland

Mil

lio

ns

of

Inte

rac

tio

ns

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

What Can We Learn

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YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Angry  Scotsman  Younger  be2er  together  Married,  older  couple  vo;ng  no  

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Angry  Scotsman  Younger  be2er  together  Married,  older  couple  vo;ng  no  

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

Angry  Scotsman  Younger  be2er  together  Married,  older  couple  vo;ng  no  

@datifyuk | www.datify.co.uk | 01733 865094

YES

NO

@benharper87 www.datify.co.uk

Thanks!