Post on 10-Jan-2017
transcript
PowerPoint Presentation
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE POST SMARTPHONE AGElafur Andri Ragnarsson
Living in the future - predict how technology will impact businesses in the next 3-5 years
New Technology atReykjavik University
Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in the past 300 years Gerd Leonhard
The 20th century was the age of automobile, oil and mass manufacturing
Local and linear
The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894In 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure. The Times of London, 1894
New Technological Revolution takes off
Ford Model-T 1908IRRUPTION
Car companies were the hottest technology companies
FRENZYThe Roaring Twenties
Turning Point
From 1960 to 1980 there was unprecedented consumer demand because of the affluent middle class (Baby Boomers) both in US and EuropeSource: Retail RevivalSYNEGRY
Benefits of the new technology spreads
Golden Age
Post-war America - from high street to the mall
SilentBoomerGen XMillennialGen Z
Industrial era
Teletype
Adding machines
Punch Cards
IBM 305RAMACProductivity
Market Shift
Information era
Mainframe
MiniComputer
PC
Client-server
Internet
Open Source
Visicalc
Macintosh
Windows 95
Mobile Phone
GSM
CalculatorMarket Shifts
Microprocessor
Smartphone
INSTALLATIONPERIODTURNINGPOINTDEPLOYMENT
Age of Oil andAutomobile1908The RoaringTwenties
1929-33 & 43Post-war Golden AgeSource: Carlota PerezTechnological Revolution
INSTALLATIONPERIODTURNINGPOINTDEPLOYMENT
The Industrial Revolution1771Canal mania
1793-97The Great British Leap
Age of Steamand Railways1829Railway mania
1848-50The Victorian Boom
Age of Steel and Electricity1875Infrastructurebubbles
1890-95The Belle poque (Europe)Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil andAutomobile1908The RoaringTwenties
1929-33 & 43Post-war Golden AgeSource: Carlota PerezTechnological Revolution
The Age of Information
1947
Programmable all-purpose electronic computers start to have impact on big businesses and government
Automation starts, jobs get lost
IBM mainframesMainframe
1965Minicomputers allow mid-sized companies and academia to have time shared computing power
Automation continues
Minicomputers
Fifth Technological Revolutionstarts
Intel 1971The Technology Trigger 1971
1981Personal Computer allowed small companies and individuals to own and program computers
Generative platform
Opened up a huge revolution - created a new industry
Personal Computers
IRRUPTION
1995Opened up a new way for people to communicate and exchange data
Generative platform, permissionless innovation
Created new industries, transformed businesses
3.4 billion connectedInternet
FRENZY
2007The smartphone revolution takes off with new possibilities
Powerful computer in your pocket
Access to 4 million apps
Constant access to the Internet
Smartphone
PDP-8Computer from DEC inMarch 1965
Cost 18.500 USD
50.000 machines sold
12 bit architecture
32K memory
0,5 MIPSMIPS: millions instruction per secondiPhone 6Smartphone fromSeptember 2015
Cost $649
Sold 10 million phonesin 3 days
64 bit architecture
128GB capacity
25.000 MIPS
From PDP-8 to the iPhone 650.000 times faster50 yearsAnd has camera, sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc
We have a supercomputer in our pocket
Mainframe1947
Minicomputer1965
PC19811995Internet
Smartphone2007
The Shortening Waves
The Next Wave is built on the Smartphone Wave
What does this mean?
WE EMPHASIZETECHNOLOGYBUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
How will technology change peoples behavior?
INSTALLATIONPERIODTURNINGPOINTDEPLOYMENT
Age of Information1971Internet mania andfinancial casino
2000 & 2008
The Industrial Revolution1771Canal mania
1793-97The Great British Leap
Age of Steamand Railways1829Railway mania
1848-50The Victorian Boom
Age of Steel and Electricity1875Infrastructurebubbles
1890-95The Belle poque (Europe)Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil andAutomobile1908The RoaringTwenties
1929-33 & 43Post-war Golden AgeThe New Golden Age?Source: Carlota PerezTechnological Revolution
SilentBoomerGen XMillennialGen Z
Industrial era
Teletype
Adding machines
Punch Cards
IBM 305RAMACProductivity
Market Shift
Information era
Mainframe
MiniComputer
PC
Client-server
Internet
Open Source
Visicalc
Macintosh
Windows 95
Mobile Phone
GSM
Calculator
Market Shift
Digital era
Apps
Cloud
Wearables
Blockchain
IoT
AI
Chatbots
Robotics
DronesMarket Shifts
Smartphone
MicroprocessorTechnology TriggerIntel 4004
Software eats the world
Intelligent Software
Real-time Software
Businesses are going thoughDigital Transformation
20102020
Defined Industry BoundariesSingle-purpose ProductsProducers and ConsumersBuying EconomyHierarchical StructurePlatforms, ecosystemsConnected Smart ProductsUser as producer, co-creationSharing economyNetwork Structure
The Transformation DecadeBroadcastingStreamingGatekeepersAlgorithms20102020
Ushering in the Golden Era in the Information AgeSource: Carlota Perez
Well only have it if we build it. Carlota Perez
The Smartphone
2+ billion people carrysmartphonesSource: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
If you want to get customers to use software, you cannot ignore mobileSource: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
The Internet Bubble
People check their smartphone over 100 times per day
Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks
The 20th century society structure was hierarchical government, companies, any form of communicationCoordination cost is high
The 21st century society becomes a network software connects individualsCoordination drops to zero
Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost
Smart things that connect
Everyday objects get sensors and software and connect to the Internet
Thing
Smartthing
ProcessorsSensorsSoftware
Connected smartthing
ProcessorsSensorsSoftware
Source: HBR
FarmingsystemPlantersTillers
TractorCombineharvesters
Ecosystem
Smart farming
AccelerometerGyroscopeMagnetometerBarometerProximityLight sensorTouch screensGPSWiFiBluetoothGSM/CDMA CellNFC - Near FieldCamera frontCamera backSensors
Fitness tracking healthy lifestyle
Lockitron - lock control
Philips HUE light system
iGrill thermometer
Nest thermostat
Sonos sound system
Real-time algorithms
Using computers in the Information era: you sit down and use the computer just as any tool
Using computers in the digital era: The computer tells you what is happening and what you need to do
Real-time Algorithms
Smartphone + Network +Connected things + Real-time=Digital Transformation
Port of HamburgOver 9 million containers per year40.000 truck trips per day
Rise of online ordering and delivery services
78
79
AHA Logistics Drivers locations
Finance
Healthcare
Retail
Transportation
Education?Any industry
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE POST SMARTPHONE AGElafur Andri Ragnarssonolafurandri.comandri@olafurandri.com@olandrislideshart.net/olandriTakk