Post on 13-May-2015
transcript
Amsterdam and FttH
real broadband, real sustainable growth
San Francisco, February 20, 2008Dirk van der WoudeCity of Amsterdam
dirkvanderwoude@gmail.com
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Lesson from the past: each industrial revolution is underpinned by new infrastructure
1875
1971
1829
1771
1908
THE AGE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE,PETROCHEMICALS
AND MASS PRODUCTION
THE AGE OF STEEL ELECTRICITY AND HEAVY ENGINEERING
THE AGE OF RAILWAYS, COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE
THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” IN ENGLAND
GLOBAL DIGITAL TELE- COMMUNICATIONS AND
ICT SUPPORT NETWORKS
ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS AND AIRWAYS
TRANSCONTINENTAL COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS,
RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH
CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL COACHES
RAILWAYS, PENNY POST AND TELEGRAPH
Source: Carlota Pérez
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Nothing new (1)Left: the highway project of HaFraBae.V. (1926)
Public access highways –or open networks- were a wise German invention(and by inspiring Mr Eisenhower lead to the US Interstate Highway System)
However, to build them overstretchedmarket vision and ability, in Germany, Holland as well as the USA
http://members.a1.net/wabweb/history/hafraba.htm
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A city and its assets
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4th in Europe – related to 40,000 jobs start: around 1250 AD
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4th in Europe – related to 100,000 jobs start: 1920 AD
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1st in the world – related to 50,000 jobs start: 1997 AD
Source: Henk Steenman, 2007
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Global hub…
Online: 85% of all Amsterdam pop.
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So Amsterdam counts three harbors…
arts media and entertainment creative business servicescontent hardware telecommunicationfinancial software consultancyOther
And the latest one strenghens the city’s attractiveness for innovative companies in telecom, creative media, Web & ICT
Now related to about 50,000 jobs– We wouldn’t mind more…
And we will try to capitalize even more withreal symm and open broadband
As well a base for sustainable growth
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Two curves
Source: Nemertes, Nov. 2007
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Conclusions Nemertes study (Nov. 2007)
The Internet Singularity, Delayed:
Backbones, switching & peering will not be the problemDemand for Internet and IP services grows exponentially, access investment proceeds linearly
– “we believe that this will happen possibly as early as 2010”
Impact of inadequate access infrastructure: – relatively mild for individual users, who will encounter Internet “brownouts”
or “snow days”– But overall, (…) this inadequate infrastructure will slow down the pace of
both technical and business innovation.
“Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in infrastructure will painlessly and invisibly leach competitiveness out of the economy”
And there’s that IPv4 thingie too…
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Trouble is at the 1st mile – what to do? “given time an exponential curve always will cross a linear one”
Source: Nemertes, Nov. 2007
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736
722
1 603
58 591
1 840
8 619
8 993
77 120
Wireless
Cable
DSL
FTTx
Down
Up
OECD: Average advertised broadband speeds, by technology, Oct 2007
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1st mile in Japan: 280,000 new FttH… per month
Japan: FttH overtaking xDSL1999-2007 plus prognosis 2008
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
1999
.0320
00.03
2001
.0320
02.03
2003
.0320
04.03
2005
.0320
05.12
2006.0
320
06.06
2006
.0920
06.12
2007
.0320
07.06
2007
.0920
07.12
2008
.0320
08.06
2008
.09200
8.12
thou
sand
s
CablexDSLFttH
PrognosisFactual
March, 2008
10 million FttHJuly 4, 2007
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Muni fiber in Europe, some examplesKöln
NetCologne200,000 FttH/B
Vienna1 million
FttH(via sewer)
München450,000 homesFttH
Paris,4 SP’s
towards1 million
FttH
Hauts-de-Seine
(Sarko- fiber)FttH
Milan(1995)
FttB
Stock- holm
Dark fiber
Amsterdam
40,000 FttH
Role of city
(estimate)
Municipal invest- ment euro
125 million 150 million 300 million?
70 millionBy cheap use of municipal assets
Up to 70 million subsidy proposed.
100 million, now partly privatized
100 million, 10 years profit making
6 million in PPP construct
Network open?
No 3d layer 3d layer ? Neutral operator
No Yes Yes
PublicMarket
Support
Subsidy
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Amsterdam want FttH, point to point 40,000 meter boxes, 10% of Amsterdam
Why?– Data infrastructure is new essential foundation– Necessary for future competitiveness as well as
sustainable economic and social growth
Take advantage of existing assets– Ams-IX– world class back bone infrastructure (we only
need last few 100 meters)– strong media, ICT, new media sectors – high internet use (> 85% of population)– Internationally oriented multi-language population
Boroughs of Zeeburg (100%), Oost (part)
& Osdorp (part)
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Set up & revenue streams 40,000 adresses now – later 450,000
Passive infrastructure: GNA CV
33% municipal shares20% municipal euro’s
Wholesale operator sells open access
100% market
Service providers100% market
consumer/SME
Rent
Rent
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This gets into every meter boxTelephone (x 2)CoaxAll existing appliancesusable – plug & playNo set top boxes!
V-lan (x 4)- One port per service- Separate specifications- f.e. care, security, etc.
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What’s on offerOne high quality standard
– Henry Ford black Ford T, ‘redux’
Consumer– Several competing service providers– Single, double or triple play– Internet, symmetric, 10 to 100 Mb/s
– 9,95 euro single play telephone– 35 to 65 euro triple play incl. 20 to
30 Mb/s symmetric internet– 100 Mb/s internet single play: 99
euro– Competitive in price and quality– First connected customer: april 2007
SME– Varying offers by several competing
SP’s
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Ubiquitous broadband & Green IT
Wired vs. Wireless? No, they ‘re in love: “A wireless bit is a bit desperately in search of a wire” Ben Verwaayen, CEO BT
Cheap high bandwidth lowers one of wireless’ barriers: cheap backhaulOr: ubiquitous broadband
Green opportunities:– Smart traveling: PTA…– Physical travel more and more substituted by virtual travel– Green low energy personal IT: PC As a Service, Saas 2.0
Connecting & intelligizing can save lots of energy:
– waste chain– street lighting– consumer goods distribution– …
Image: thank you, Nico Baken
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A forward looking view…
An informed analysis:
Computing to follow pattern of energy– From local supply to ubiquitous utility
Computing from a wall socket – And wireless as well?
Large energy savings– Have professionals in charge of resources
– Works better than overbooking…
Strong need for regulation though!
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Nothing new (2)
La Fibre?
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No, 18th century WiFi…
1792Lille => Paris:• 15 stations• 36 characters in 32 minutes• all records broken, huge success
•And up to 1846 cause for the French to resist investing into a copper telegraphe network
•L’ histoire se répète…
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Image: thank you, Nico Baken
We and ‘Our’ Networks…
Questions?
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Alternative? Docsis 3.0
<= promise: “120 Mb/s over coax…”
…real world: shared bandwidth =>
(Xiamen, Jan. 2007)
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Alternative? VDSL2
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=93103&page_number=4
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Source: OECD Broadband Statistics and others
Countries With Relative High Broadband
Penetration But Low Upload DSL Speed
DSL, average upload speed
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First mile today: % of services with down speeds <1Mbps or ≥5Mbps
Source: OECD Broadband Statistics and others
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
> 5Mbps
Countries Where Majority is Below 1Mbps
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FttH first mile in Europe just a pick (2)
Vienna, Zürich (muni energy corp’s): FttH in whole city– Vienna, Sept. 24, 2007: start of roll out to 50,000 homes
Scandinavia– Norway: municipal energy corp of Oslo: Open FttH to 50% of whole
Norwegian population– Sweden: 200 of 289 communities own a fiber network– Denmark: energy corps, in 2006 – 2010 FttH to 50% of Danish population
Slovenia: incumbent– 85% of all households in country, 450 million euro (25% soft loan by
EU)
Latvia: incumbent, 50 K FttH
Andorra (!): incumbent, copper switch off in 2009/10
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FttH first mile in Europe just a pick (1)
The battle for France, starting with Paris– Iliad, Neuf Cegetel, France Telecom, Noos Numericable– Massive investments– Consumer price of 100 Mbit symmetric: 30 euro– Hauts-de-Seine: FttH in whole department (pop. 1.5 million, 100.000
SME’s, subsidy 50 to 70 million) Chairman & proponent: M Sarkozy– over 100 broadband projects France with government participation– Policy French government: 4 to ? million FttH in 2012
Germany: competitive telco’s deploying FttH– NetCologne: all of Cologne, to be followed by Bonn, Aachen?
(NetCologne = 100% GEW Köln AG = 100% City of Cologne)– Hamburg, Telecom Italia: 100,000 FttH in 2012– München, muni energy corp: > 60% of city FttH– Other projects in Schwerte, Norderstedt, Hamburg, Gelsenkirchen,
Dessau, Magdeburg
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Sharing of the last part of the local loop should be considered
option 1 option 2 option 3 option 4
Competition between 2 fiber networks Co investment Unbundling bitstream
Source: Mme Gabrielle Gauthey,ARCEP (14 Nov. 2007)
NB: ‘NRO’ is Noeud de Raccordement Optique – or Node
French questions, Amsterdam answers
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A business perspective
Layer Economic character Life cycle Cost per sub
ServiceLayer
Low CapEx, average to high OpEx 1 to x years ?
ActiveLayer
Average CapEx, low OpEx 5 to 10 years 300 – 500
PassiveLayer
High CapEx, very (very!) low OpEx 25 to 50 years 500 - 700
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Architecturethree-layer model
• Passive fibre infrastructure: Point-to-Point• Unbundled local loop of fiber = maximum competition at services
level in value chain• Largest capacity for future growth
• Active layer: Active Ethernet • Applications services layer, Service providers are being offered
transparent access:• with discrete virtual LANs (VLANs) for each service on a per user
basis• allowing multiple services to be delivered and invoiced to each
home in parallel (i.e. multiple ISP’s, Citywide Intranet, closed circuit IP-based surveillance, IP-TV, care and medical services etc.)
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FttH & broadband strategy of Amsterdam
Create a market entity (GNA) that rolls out fiber– With a minimal financial government participation– On equal market terms– No involvement in active network, services or pricing– In accordance with EU state aid rules
Open network, universal roll out– Start with first 10% of city, to be followed by rest of city
Roll out creates intricate network– Cheapily accessible– Ideal conditions for wireless networks as well
Final aim: ubiquitous broadband in all of AmsterdamSelective stimulation of services
– Using ideal living lab for innovative services
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Fast broadband & economic growth
Source: September 2007 The New Zealand Institute - www.nzinstitute.org
Estimated impact on GDP - Compound Annual Growth Rate in %(2007-2015)
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4
Korea - Ministry of Info. and Comms ( ETRI,KSDNI, KT, SK Telecom, and LG Telecom)
Victoria - ACIL Tasman
USA - Momentum Group & Brookings Institution
NZ - Economist Intelligence Unit
NZ - NZ Institute**
Queensland - Allen Consulting
UK - BSG
Australia - Broadband Advisory Group
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Killer app?