Post on 07-Sep-2020
transcript
Disruptive Innovation and Energy
By Peter Newman
Professor of Sustainability CUSP, Curtin University
New understanding of innovation…
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
• Came from Clayton Christensen at Harvard.
• Innovation came from demand, often before it was cheaper than mainstream options. But it ‘felt cheaper’…it performed for them.
• Eg 3.5 inch discs cf 5.5 inch discs…..Notebooks!
• Exponential growth and system disruption
• Mainstream finds it hard to see innovation as they are looking at supply price…so they ignore it. The ‘Kodak effect’
Disruptive innovation and energy…
• Phase out of fossil fuels is happening without disrupting GDP
• Solar energy is happening much quicker than most utilities expected.
• Next phase will be solar/batteries/electric transport
• City transport systems are disrupting
Decoupling GDP and fossil fuels
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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American GDP vs Coal Consumption
American GDP
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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American GDP vs Oil Consumption
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Australian GDP vs Coal Consumption
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Australian GDP vs Oil Consumption
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China decouples GDP and coal
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China decouples GDP and oil
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India rapidly decoupling GDP from fossil fuels….
Solar takes off….
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Ad
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Coal & Gas
Renewables
Perth solar city 20% of Perth homes 490 MW in 3 years… ‘It is inevitable…’ Minister for Energy
Next phase solar/batteries/EV’s
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Pri
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kwh
A1 Tariff vs Battery plus Solar PV Cost in SWIS
Solar + battery (AUD$/kwh)
A1 Tariff (AUD$/kwh)
The holy grail arrives
JOSH’S HOUSE It’s carbon positive!
PV Offsets
Tesla
Honda Zero Carbon Home
Cities reducing oil through less car dependence
THE USA IS DRIVING LESS
39.1
35.4
30.228.3 29.2 29.4
0.0
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1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2005
UrbanDensity(personsperha)
UrbanDensityTrendin23Ci esintheUSA,Australia,CanadaandEurope,1960-2005
The top 6 most walkable cities in the US have 38% higher GDP.
70% of knowledge economy workers in Boston live in
walkable areas.
Glaeser and Florida…
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USA ANZ CAN EUR ASIA
Passengercarkilometresper$ofGDP
(1995USdollars)
Passengercarkilometresper$ofGDPin1995(US1995dollars)
Passengercarkilometresper$ofGDPin2005(US1995dollars)
Decoupling car use and GDP
Car use is now officially recognised in the US to be decoupling from wealth
Decoupling most of all in the cities with rail investement, eg Washington
DC and Portland
Shanghai 1990 and 2010
1990’s - Flirting with the American model…
Rapidly filled…
So what can be done?
Shanghai Metro…12 lines, 273 stations, 420km covering 80% of metro area…
Built mostly since 2000; carries 8 million per day
Global growth now in ELECTRIC rail …
• 82 Chinese cities building metros and high speed rail between cities Shanghai 8m passengers/day
• 51 Indian cities building metros Any city over 1m.
• Middle east cities building rail for first time
Public Transport
Private
Vehicles
B
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NUCLEAR NUCLEAR
RENEWABLES
RENEWABLES
GAS
GAS
COAL
COAL
OIL
OIL
CO2
CO2
GDP
GDP
2050 NOW
Predictions – After the Peak