Post on 05-Apr-2018
transcript
The role of stakeholder participation and group modelling in developing
decision support tools
Deniz Koca, Assistant Prof.Lund University, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research &Applied Systems Analysis & System Dynamics (ASASD) Group!Email: deniz.koca@cec.lu.se
Background
Facilitating Group Model Building workshops to model complex dynamic systems
Transdisciplinary projects - sustainability science
Applied research
Recent research activities
SimRESS Project - German EPA & Ministry of Environment - modelling resource efficiency
CONVERGE Project - EU FP7 - Systems science based and stakeholder participative indicator framework - focus area: sustainable food system in Iceland, UK and India
World resources - strategic metals and minerals (burn off rates, Hubbert curves, system dynamics modelling)
Implementation of environmental goals in mountain regions in Sweden - Swedish EPA
Sustainable health care spaces in the 21st century in Sweden - FORMAS
Icelandic banking system - University of Iceland
Implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in regional development policies in Seyhan river basin - UNDP
Swedish Transport System in 2050 - VINNOVA & Chalmers University
Swedish EPA (as well as EEA and other EU countries’ EPAs) - to develop sustainability indicator framework
Energy System in Ecuador (and in Egypt) : Scenario analysis government subsidies vs. investments in renewables
Group Modelling Process
GROUP MODELLING PROCESS
PHASE 1: CONCEPTUAL MODELING & SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
Step 1: Definition - setting systems boundaries, identification of key components of the system
Step 2: Clarification - in depth systems analysis of the system with causal loop diagramming, where cause effect relations, feedbacks and time delays between the components are identified
Step 3: Confirmation - test and validation of causal loop diagrams
PHASE 2: SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING &INTEGRATED SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Step 4: Model formulation - conversion of causal loop diagrams into a dynamic model in computer environment with relevant data
Step 5: Model evaluation - test and validation of the dynamic model
Step 6: Model implementation - presentation of decision support tool with analysis of alternative policy options for various scenarios
Group Modelling Workshop 1
Group Modelling Workshop 2
Group Modelling Workshop 3
Group Modelling Workshop 4
Group Modelling Workshop 5
Indicator * * *indicator * * *indicator*
* **indicator*Indicator * * *indicator*
Indicator*
* * *indicator*
Indicator * * *indicator * * *indicator*
* **indicator*Indicator * * *indicator*
Indicator*
* * *indicator*
To sum up...
Deniz Koca, Ph.D., Assistant Prof.,Applied Systems Analysis & System Dynamics (ASASD) Group,Department of Chemical Engineering, Lund Universitydeniz.koca@chemeng.lth.sewww.lth.se/asasd
experiment
+
literature study
+observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
experiment
+
+
literature study
+observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
KNOWLEDGE
Analysis
events
experience
+
++
synthesis
experiment
+ +
+
+
+
literature study
+observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
Analysis
events
experience
+
+
+problem definition
+
R1
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
Analysis
events
experience
+
++
R1
R2
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
Analysis
events
experience
+
++
R1
R3R2
synthesis
experiment
+ +
+
+
+
literature study
+observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
Analysis
events
experience
+
+
+problem definition
+
research goals and objectives+
+
+
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
R1
R3R2
B1
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
analysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
+
R1
R3R2
B1
-
B2
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
analysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
+
R1
R3R2
B1
-
B2
+
other problem(s)+
R4
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
analysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
+
R1
R3R2
B1
-
B2
+
other problem(s)+
R4
other observedsymptoms+
+R5
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
analysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
+
R1
R3R2
B1
-
B2
+
other problem(s)+
R4
other observedsymptoms+
+R5
-B3
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
+
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
analysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
+
R1
R3R2
B1
-
B2
+
other problem(s)+
R4
other observedsymptoms+
+R5
-B3
Learning by doing and traditional way of analysis!
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
SystemsAnalysis
stakeholder participation
+
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
SystemsAnalysis
stakeholder participation
+
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
SystemsAnalysis
stakeholder participation
+
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
R7
R6
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
stakeholder participation
+
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
stakeholder participation
+
+
Learning by conceptual modelling and systems analysis!
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
System Dynamics Modelling
+
+
+
stakeholder participation
+
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
System Dynamics Modelling
+
+
+
decision support tool
+
stakeholder participation
+
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
System Dynamics Modelling
+
+
+
decision support toolsimulations for
alternative actions +
+
+
stakeholder participation
+
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
Integrated Scenario & SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
System Dynamics Modelling
+
+
+
decision support toolsimulations for
alternative actions +
+
+
+
R8
stakeholder participation
+
+
R9
System Dynamics Modelling
+
+
+
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
Integrated Scenario & SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
decision support toolsimulations for
alternative actions +
+
+
-
R8
stakeholder participation
+
+
synthesis
experiment research goals and objectives
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
literature study
+
++
problem definition
+
observedsymptoms
++
Problem1
DATA 2
INFORMATION3
KNOWLEDGE 4
implementation goals and objectives +
sustainable solutions & actions
+
-
+
other problem(s)
other observedsymptoms+
+
conceptual modelling
(as a group)
+
+
Causal Loop & Stock Flow
Diagrams
+
Integrated Scenario & SystemsAnalysis
events
experience
+
+
unsustainable solutions & actions
+
systems thinking
+
-
+
-
-
+R1
R3R2
B1
B2
R4
R5
B3
-
R7
R6
System Dynamics Modelling
+
+
+
decision support toolsimulations for
alternative actions +
+
+
+
-
R8
stakeholder participation
+
+
Learning by conceptual modelling, system dynamics modelling, systems analysis and integrated scenario analysis!
Thanks for your attention!!!
Deniz Koca, Assistant Prof. Lund University, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research & Applied Systems Analysis & System Dynamics (ASASD) Group !http:www.lth.se/asasddeniz.koca@chemeng.lth.se