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Doctoral Completion & Attrition
September 2008
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Attrition & Completion Graphs
All Students
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0.0
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0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
Doctoral Attrition by Cohort
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
FO ODUR
Doctoral Attrition by Ethnicity
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
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0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
URM Doctoral Attrition by Cohort
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0 2 4 6 8 10Year
Female Male
Doctoral Attrition by Gender
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0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
Female Doctoral Attrition by Cohort
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Commulative Ten-Year Completion Rates by Demographic Group
52
55
65
52
45
54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Female Male Foreign Other Domestic URM Total
Co
mp
leti
on
Ra
te (
%)
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0.0
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0.6
0.7
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
Doctoral Completion by Cohort
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0.0
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0.7
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
FO ODUR
Doctoral Degree Completion by Ethnicity
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0.0
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0.2
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0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
URM Doctoral Completion by Cohort
Note: Includes all doctoral students
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0 2 4 6 8 10Year
Female Male
Doctoral Completion by Gender
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0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
Female Doctoral Completion by Cohort
Note: Includes All Doctoral Students
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Full Campus Study
• Attrition– No difference between demographic groups.– GRE Verbal Scores positively related to attrition. No
significant relationship found for GRE Quant or for GPA.
– Students who attended a top tier BA school and those with a prior graduate degree are less likely to drop out.
– Student faculty ratio is negatively related to dropout. – Programs with a tradition of publishing with a lone
author have higher attrition rates.– Programs with a teaching requirement have higher
drop out rates.
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Full Campus Study
• Early v. Late Attrition– Among dropouts, students with a foreign
language requirement are more likely to dropout late.
– Programs with a tradition of sole authorship tend to produce students who drop out later.
– Differential impact of GRE Verbal between students enrolling with and without a prior graduate degree.
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GRE Verbal & Prior Graduate Degree
.1.2
.3.4
Pro
babl
ity o
f Dro
pout
0 2 4 6 8 10Verbal GRE Percentile/10
No Prior Graduate Degree Prior Graduate Degree
Note: Among all dropouts
F1997 & F1998 Doctoral CohortsProbablity of Dropout After 3rd Year of Doctoral Enrollment
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CGS Activities
• Exit Survey
• CGS Incidents System
• 10 Year Attrition and Completion Reports– By program– By broad field by Gender and Ethnic Counts
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Incidents Systems
• IT Problems• 119 Reported Incidents to Date• Reported Reasons:
– 22% Family– 22% Health– 19% Financial– 25% Lost Interest
• Open Ended Comments• Subsequent Enrollment
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0.0
00
.25
0.5
00
.75
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
CGS Doctoral Completion by Cohort
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
FO ODUR
CGS Doctoral Completion by Ethnicity
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0.0
00
.25
0.5
00
.75
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
CGS URM Doctoral Completion by Cohort
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0.0
0.1
0.2
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0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
Female Male
CGS Doctoral Completion by Gender
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0.0
00
.25
0.5
00
.75
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
CGS Female Doctoral Completion by Cohort
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0.0
00
.10
0.2
00
.30
0.4
00
.50
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
CGS Doctoral Attrition by Cohort
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
FO ODUR
CGS Doctoral Attrition by Ethnicity
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
CGS URM Doctoral Attrition by Cohort
27
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
Female Male
CGS Doctoral Attrition by Gender
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0.0
00
.25
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10Year
1990-1994 1995-19992000-2004
CGS Female Doctoral Attrition by Cohort